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Maybe the chips won't ever leave china? Cheaper and faster to send a guy there to test, then crack on with production there? I've not seen anything official mention them being assembled in Sweden, and I'd bet there's some factories over there about perfect for the job.
That slogan on their boards should have been, "Chips. Do you want to know more?"
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I honestly don't think KNC will have all these preorders filled by end of October. I haven't seen a Knc Asic chip yet, and it is already going on September. They'd have to have everything lined up just right if they expect to get chips installed on the board without any issues and everything communicating right. Not to mention to assemble all these units and then ship out all these orders by end of October, they'd need one hell of a team.
Without seeing a chip already, I'd be surprised if they'd even have a physical prototype ready by Oct 1st.
IT IS september, which is 4 weeks long. End of this month they are due to ship. They aren't likely to be having them assembled in an old folks home , more likely in a factory using robotic machinery. In that case, that's easy. Car manufacturers manage over a 1000 cars a day in such a plant building a much more complex product. By comparison this is easy. Apple sold 12 million iPads in march..again much more complex, but those too are produced in 1000s a day. If KnC have this sorted they won't have a problem. |
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So with this new price drop, should I drop my Mercury order and buy a lower cost jupiter?
Maybe upgrade modules would solve this dilemma? If we can add extra modules |
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Thought it was the universal translator gizmo.
No, they sacked that after that unfortunate misunderstanding with the Borg and their invitation to a tuppoware party. |
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And to think, on Star Trek they meet strange aliens from different galaxies and instantly understand every word they say. lol
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Wait your image shows that you will ROI by start of Jan? What the F are you on about then? Dude, you are smoking fucking crack if you basing your assumptions off of difficulty 3.4 BILLION by March 2014... ASIC manufacturers would have to be selling these things like like toilet paper in order to reach that amount of difficulty and they simply are not going to be able to put that much hash power out quick enough to realize this difficulty within 6 months time. Why? A. Because at this point in the game if you didn't get in early enough to make seed capital for further investment, your probably not going to invest/reinvest. Less investors = less rigs = Less Difficulty B. Guys just like you will continue to scoff at a 20% return (which by the way is an awesome return within 6 months by any measure). And is based off of what you will get worst case if your Genesis Block charts stand correct assuming you have a Jupiter by October. (Referencing your Image, and assuming a switch-off date of March 2013) C. The equipment that is in use today, will not be in use in 6 months... This shit isn't like CPU's where you still have people rockin Pentium 4's, the life expectancy of a ASIC is directly related to their profitability which as difficulty rises profitability decreases. Which again brings us back to the toilet paper analogy, people would have to be replacing/buy new equipment every 6 months to keep up. and even then, they would be switching off their Avalon batch 3 dinosaurs at this point. I don't see this happening. D.After all the BFL bullshit, Avalon cancelling chip orders, hashfast, cointerra, and all the other so-called 28nm developers soliciting for December, when the the lions share of the potential performance will be ate up, manufacturers will have to be really pushing the envelope on the tech, and this will cost money, definitely within the thousand of dollars. very few other than the rich, and die-hard supporters will be buying in at this point. E. Among other endeavors I am a firearms dealer and let me tell you some of the dynamics and concerns about flooding the market with product are very real in this business and apply to ASICs. Manufacturers of firearms go to great lengths to ensure they stay profitable and too much product hitting the streets too fast most definitely causes devaluation in this market. Gun manufacturers want to continue charging ridiculous prices for the few pieces of product they make so they limit how much product hits the distributors per month to keep the scarcity high and thus the prices high. This is no different for ASIC Manufacturers. At some point when the dust settles, and the guys that saw an opportunity to make a quick buck shutdown, your going to see ASIC manufacturers throttling the supply, and I firmly believe this is already happening and will only get worse as difficulty rises. They don't want to give these things away, and you can bet your ass they're not going to do it without making a handsome profit. This is all speculation, however that is the exact point plasmoske, and everyone else in the forum is making. There are lots of mechanics to this whole thing that we don't even know about, let alone can calculate and at the end of the day its a dice roll, you wanna play? Go big or go home. If your too afraid of losing your money, stick with the stock market, or better yet T-Bonds. Just don't expect to make a 20% return within 6 months. Also, a business that could make a 20% profit for it's owner in it's first year trading could also lose it's owner his shirt..lose everything like many do every day. Not much risk of that with this ..we're pretty certain to get some return at least if we didn't invest money we don't have. |
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so does that mean. All orders that were supposed to go in September are now scheduled to go out no later than October 15th?
Regards
It means they anticipate to fulfil all orders made by October 15th. They aren't stupid so they wouldn't say that knowing the backlash should they not deliver on time I think..making a rod for their own back they don't need to set an exact date. Liking this. |
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Just got that myself. Makes me wonder if we can buy modules to upgrade rigs and how much they'd cost?
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320*1.3 =~ 433 not 520 Roi in 2020  Does being that stupid actually hurt? I understand where he's coming from. The original clock rate was 320. He's presuming they're talking about an additional performance on top of the original clock rate. However, that's not the case. They adjusted the stock clock rate to 400 in one of their announcements. So he's wrong in saying 320, but I can see why he thought that. The problem with this is that it's linear thinking, you're not taking into account the efficiency increase over time. Think about how much advancement has occurred with CPU/GPU's over the past decade. Exponential is putting it lightly.
Yes there will be increase in efficiency but there's a technological wall at some point. 28nm will be pretty much the standard in months to come and that's about it. There could be 20nm but I don't see that happening for years to come. Mainly because it's not widely available and way too expensive. But to have it double > double > double > double > double > double >double > double is impossible. Mathically/technologically wise. People don't seem to understand this. It's like saying current CPU tech. It becomes double the speed/efficiency next year. and double again next year and double again next year. Going by the logic, by 2020, we should have 60ghz cpu with only 20w usage. lol. That's not exactly the case if you look at the benchmarks for the past few years. Yeah that was the case back in the old days, pentium 1s but those days are over. With bitcoin ASICs, you're already almost there at the top. Current bitcoin ASICs are not at Pentium1 levels. It's still exponential because of quantity. Let's say they hit a wall with 28nm technology. They won't stop shipping in quantities, they will still be sold. Their price might go down some, which will encourage more sales. I say might, because not all MFG's have lowered their cost. And folks who mine altcoin can still find these useful tremendously. This is something I don't understand. Folks are all up in arms about the systems not mining for useful profits beyond a certain point with bitcoin.. Ok? So shift your coins? I'm mining some altcoins using ASIC equipment and I'm making decent returns with them. They can be traded for fiat or, guess what, bitcoin. Mining is a long-term thing, and with some sense, you can manage to get returns "somehow" by shifting what you're mining. Makes sense. Which altcoins are you mining if you don't mind me asking ? |
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Should be interesting if known miner device manufacturers stop shipping and the hashrate rises anyway pointing to some unknown manufacturer's hashing devices hitting the network.
Dude, ALL legit manufacturers devices will be hitting the network (with the probable exception of BFL). |
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Come On knc protect the network with stop delivered miner at December and leave the other companies to f... The network
In november jupiter will earn 30%, then 15%, 7, 3.5, 1.5 and you will turn off. Or worse. No one wants buy my bitfury shares and knc shares (september ones) People are not stupid People may not be, but you surely are. Yes i am stupid, i bought jupiter shares from order 5x All of this doom and gloom coming from someone that can't afford a full jupiter. You must really hate the fact that other people are buying miners and somehow you think you illogical conclusions and constant spamming on this forum is going to slow/stop/make them get a refund? Well let me help you out with the answer to that. it won't. I already have 15 paid orders on my Reseller link and 29 Unpaid. That's just me, people are still buying these machines and I doubt anything you will say (especially with your extensive jupiter share collection) will do anything about that. That's good going on referals ..free rig for you at least. How the hell did you manage that? lol Forgot to ask what I posted for...do you have an order number for the freebie at all? To give a rough idea of numbers so far? I'm wondering how anyone can say KnC are "late" when their delivery date is weeks away still? For me they are late mid october or after then, for early orders it's late september. |
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Risking flak, an analysis I've been doing is how badly the thing is going for me compared with buying BTC Jun the 3rd when I placed my order. Putting european average VAT, Jun 3 exchange rate from mtgox (for buy BTC VS buy miner scenario) and present difficulty from the 700+ TH/s: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/d0a309b862It would look worse with bitstamp or so exchange rate and this is with 100% uptime. I really hope KNC will over deliver. Right now we are still exposed to continued difficulty increase risks. Risking further flak (sorry, this is real money for me and I really need to re-asses all possibilities) can anyone of the refunders please post how fast they got their refund? Adjust that to 450 from 400 and things change radically (and the way KnC are talking we could be seeing closer to 500). That's looking like it may be the real picture. I'd say although you may need the money you'd be wise to think hard about jumping ship when exchange rates and hash rate of the rigs could rise and the projected difficulty shown on that calculator are so pessimistic long term (see many wise posts about the unlikelyhood of it rising so much ). We're always exposed to difficulty risks, it's a risky game to play. Even buying BTC could wipe you out. That's why the rewards can be so good. |
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This thread is about KnC miners so why even mention buying BTC vs mining, particularly when trading BTC with leverage makes much more sense if that's the game you're into? As was already mentioned sensibly, apples vs oranges. Personally I'll mine BTC for the future and trade the hell out them for profit separately with flat (which in the last few days has been pretty wonderful and much more sun than watching a miner sitting humming away  ) . |
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So. If I buy a Jupiter now and mine just ONE BTC with it and BTC rises to 10k I won't be in profit?
Not if you paid with 70 bitcoins. It would mean you lost $690,000 If I bought a jupiter NOW (which is a fucking long way from 700k because NOW BTC are more like 140 dollars NOW), then they RISE to 10k dollars each (which a shitload higher than their 140 dollar current value) and I managed to mine just one BTC when I got the fucker..assuming I didn't leave it sitting in it's box for years ...I'd be not only in profit but better at maths and comprehending english than some people here. I made the numbers extreme and round to illustrate a point so it was easy to understand. Waste of time. |
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That's not pedantic, it's not the 21th, it's the 21st ...that's pedantic  |
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Ok. I asked this in another thread already, but HERE, I particularly do not understand where a lot of you are coming from. First off, no matter what you WILL achieve ROI, so I have to assume you mean POSITIVE ROI. But even given that niggle, there is virtually no way these machines will not reach break even in a fairly short time, after which your only ongoing expense is electricity, which is not that great of an expense on these devices. So, those of you crying "no ROI" over and over again, WHAT FREAKIN" TIME FRAME ARE YOU TRYING TO BEAT?  Any frickin' timeframe. Please see here. I mean really. An ivestment that is likely to break even in less than a year??? That's insanely positive by most any business metric you care to apply! ... If you don't break even in a year, you never will. Never. Unless conventional difficulty predictions are just a bunch of fud, spread by evol gobment infiltrators. Total bollocks. So..in 5 years from now BTC are $10k exchange...explain to me how what you said can be true? Also..how you know that or something similar can't happen? That was the point he was making and he's spot on. At the end of the day the exchange rate of BTC is everything when deciding if your investment in a miner profits or not. Even if bitcoin is $10k if 5 years, that isn't relevant. At any point in time if your rig cannot earn more bitcoins in a week than it costs in electricity (given that week's btc -> dollar exchange rate) you should turn it off. Why? Because you'd get more bitcoins buying them at an exchange than buying electricity to mine. Also if bitcoin goes to $10k you can bet your sweet ass that difficulty will rise to match, and unless your miner is one of the most efficient (or you pay very little for power), you will not see profit. So. If I buy a Jupiter now and mine just ONE BTC with it and BTC rises to 10k I won't be in profit? Why bother, just buy 1btc and keep it! Because the chances of a Jupiter actually mining just one coin are remote. OBVIOUSLY that was an example, a dead simple one. I give up, heads are in sand here...not a gramme of logic. |
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Ok. I asked this in another thread already, but HERE, I particularly do not understand where a lot of you are coming from. First off, no matter what you WILL achieve ROI, so I have to assume you mean POSITIVE ROI. But even given that niggle, there is virtually no way these machines will not reach break even in a fairly short time, after which your only ongoing expense is electricity, which is not that great of an expense on these devices. So, those of you crying "no ROI" over and over again, WHAT FREAKIN" TIME FRAME ARE YOU TRYING TO BEAT? Any frickin' timeframe. Please see here. I mean really. An ivestment that is likely to break even in less than a year??? That's insanely positive by most any business metric you care to apply! ... If you don't break even in a year, you never will. Never. Unless conventional difficulty predictions are just a bunch of fud, spread by evol gobment infiltrators. Total bollocks. So..in 5 years from now BTC are $10k exchange...explain to me how what you said can be true? Also..how you know that or something similar can't happen? That was the point he was making and he's spot on. At the end of the day the exchange rate of BTC is everything when deciding if your investment in a miner profits or not. Even if bitcoin is $10k if 5 years, that isn't relevant. At any point in time if your rig cannot earn more bitcoins in a week than it costs in electricity (given that week's btc -> dollar exchange rate) you should turn it off. Why? Because you'd get more bitcoins buying them at an exchange than buying electricity to mine. Also if bitcoin goes to $10k you can bet your sweet ass that difficulty will rise to match, and unless your miner is one of the most efficient (or you pay very little for power), you will not see profit. So. If I buy a Jupiter now and mine just ONE BTC with it and BTC rises to 10k I won't be in profit? |
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Ok. I asked this in another thread already, but HERE, I particularly do not understand where a lot of you are coming from. First off, no matter what you WILL achieve ROI, so I have to assume you mean POSITIVE ROI. But even given that niggle, there is virtually no way these machines will not reach break even in a fairly short time, after which your only ongoing expense is electricity, which is not that great of an expense on these devices. So, those of you crying "no ROI" over and over again, WHAT FREAKIN" TIME FRAME ARE YOU TRYING TO BEAT? Any frickin' timeframe. Please see here. I mean really. An ivestment that is likely to break even in less than a year??? That's insanely positive by most any business metric you care to apply! ... If you don't break even in a year, you never will. Never. Unless conventional difficulty predictions are just a bunch of fud, spread by evol gobment infiltrators. Total bollocks. So..in 5 years from now BTC are $10k exchange...explain to me how what you said can be true? Also..how you know that or something similar can't happen? That was the point he was making and he's spot on. At the end of the day the exchange rate of BTC is everything when deciding if your investment in a miner profits or not. |
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I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.
That makes no sense. If it doesn't pay off in bitcoins, then you're better off buying bitcoins instead of a miner. And what do you buy bitcoins with? He's right. The initial cost is in flat not BTC which you've had to buy or obtain in some way that cost you flat. I could just as easily say that I could make more trading BTC with leverage, or trading gold....but that's not the point, nor the topic of this thread...it's about KnC Miners and mining. In fact if you buy a miner and do decent research and pick one like KnC you double your chances of a profit...one chance being that you get past break even, the other that even if you don't in the near future your mined BTC will eventually rise in value and give you a better return than your original dollar/pound/euro investment. Plus you have a rig that might have value in the future. |
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I'm totally ROFL and LMAO at the same time. Promises.
I don't think Cointerra is raising the funds they need to launch in December either. They seem to need non-recourse pre-order payments. That doesn't surprise me, it's no longer the golden goose it was a few months ago is it? Too much choice and too much risk and too many bad experiences added to low probability of decent returns ...all bad if you need to raise funds. You'd need balls of steel to invest heavily at this point. |
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