Thanks everyone for your kind words, it was not that much work. I'm still most surprised at how unique each year turned out. I expected they would mostly show gains, but they vary so much more than I would have guessed. It really shows the boom and bust cycles. I wonder if it will be more stable with mainstream adoption?
From this point forward, I fully expect Bitcoin to stay in the normal growth range for a mature stock. A premature conclusion, perhaps. Why? 15.6 bil is not a large stock, more like a midcap, plus the comparison should be (in my opinion) to currencies and/or asset classes (stocks, bonds, RE, precious metals). Precious metals are one of the smallest asset classes with total value at $7-8 trillions. $1 tril for bitcoin is quite possible if it gets 15% of gold value eventually. It would still be miniscule in comparison with the other asset classes. Two funds (10bil size) already wanted to buy 30-50K bitcoins ea offmarket. They were refused, hence they, presumably, had to go to exchanges, resulting in the recent $800-970 pop. There are MANY funds MUCH larger in size. I would be disappointed if bitcoin (or crypto as a whole) does not make it to $40-50K within a decade. I think an expectation of continued 5000% growth for any mature asset inside of a decade is very wishful thinking. I can't name one that's done it and I've been investing in various markets from real estate to common stocks to precious metals for 40 years. I'm probably one of the only people you will ever talk to in your life that actually invested in the Chicago pork belly futures market. I've always love the extreme and bitcoin is definitely extreme. Well, Apple (AAPL) was definitely mature in 1996 (after two decades of listing), yet it went from the low of 0.48 in Dec 1997 (split adjusted) to 28.30 (split adjusted) in Dec 2007, which is 5796% within a decade. I grant you that it is a rare case, but....it exists. Yeah, I've never met anyone that doesn't look back at Apple or Microsoft and kick themselves. Those are once in a lifetime opportunities. As far as I'm concerned those don't count because they're investing flukes. |
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Thanks everyone for your kind words, it was not that much work. I'm still most surprised at how unique each year turned out. I expected they would mostly show gains, but they vary so much more than I would have guessed. It really shows the boom and bust cycles. I wonder if it will be more stable with mainstream adoption?
From this point forward, I fully expect Bitcoin to stay in the normal growth range for a mature stock. A premature conclusion, perhaps. Why? 15.6 bil is not a large stock, more like a midcap, plus the comparison should be (in my opinion) to currencies and/or asset classes (stocks, bonds, RE, precious metals). Precious metals are one of the smallest asset classes with total value at $7-8 trillions. $1 tril for bitcoin is quite possible if it gets 15% of gold value eventually. It would still be miniscule in comparison with the other asset classes. Two funds (10bil size) already wanted to buy 30-50K bitcoins ea offmarket. They were refused, hence they, presumably, had to go to exchanges, resulting in the recent $800-970 pop. There are MANY funds MUCH larger in size. I would be disappointed if bitcoin (or crypto as a whole) does not make it to $40-50K within a decade. That's to say I expect Bitcoin to stay between 15-25% and -15-25% growth as any mature stock would. Bitcoin does have a small cap compared to market leaders but even small and mid sized corporate stocks follow the same movement patterns when mature. I think an expectation of continued 5000% growth for any mature asset inside of a decade is very wishful thinking. I can't name one that's done it and I've been investing in various markets from real estate to common stocks to precious metals for 40 years. I'm probably one of the only people you will ever talk to in your life that actually invested in the Chicago pork belly futures market. I've always love the extreme and bitcoin is definitely extreme. |
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...
With stocks you see a rapid increase in the first few years as a company gains traction in their respective market. Thousands of percent increases are not uncommon because the value of the shares are going from pennies to large dollar amounts. After the first few years it becomes almost impossible for any stock to give a thousand percent increase because the dollar amount necessary is just too far out of reach. For example, at a starting price of $900 Bitcoin would need to grow to $53,307 to gain another 5923% increase as it did in 2014. That means an individual trading in "shares" of Bitcoin will need to pay $53,307 for just one. Even the most wealthy, and foolhardy, investors will do a double take on that one. While insane gains are no longer realistic smaller gains are still impressive. From this point forward, I fully expect Bitcoin to stay in the normal growth range for a mature stock.
All very good points! And at the same time the supply is increasing assuming new coins remain available for circulation. Here is some more fun with math to make your point. It take an ever increasing amount of capitol to move the price up by the same percentage. Date Market cap Price Supply January 4, 2015 - $ 3,856,200,918 $ 281.79 13,684,794 So in this year it took $2,631,749,890 to go up 53% or about $49,655,658 pr percentage point. January 3, 2016 - $ 6,487,950,808 $ 431.45 15,037,467 Over about the next year it took $7,627,735,314 to go up 104% or about $73,343,609 per percentage point. December 25, 2016 - $14,115,686,122 $878.81 16,062,338 Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/That true and great to see. It seems like it would be disheartening because the ridiculous profits are gone forever but it's just the opposite for me. I see the huge increases in price as proof that people are still interested in Bitcoin. A huge amount of money needs to be chasing Bitcoin for small percentage changes now and that's reassuring for a long term investor. I've decided to do a stepped selloff of my holdings as I do with any investment but I'll never sell all of them for fear that bitcoin will never stop growing. I don't expect to live long enough to see $50k bitcoins but fully expect to see $3-$5k bitcoins. |
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It's embarrassing to see how many people understand nothing about taxes. How do they survive in society not understanding their taxation responsibilities and why are more of them not in prison? actually in most cases the government are receiving taxes by applying it directly on our salary an other product we do not pay tax naually therefore most of the people have no idea about the tax they are paying to the government. That's the way it works in the USA too. I don't know where you're from but here we are expected to reconcile that every April. It is true that many people here trust a business to do that for them. That business really doesn't care how much of their money they keep. It's so stupid but people are lazy. |
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IF bitcoin reaches 1000 between now and jan 5th, we'll have the world's first official BITCOIN REACHES 1000 PARTY at Room77 in Graefestrasse in Bitcoinkiez, Berlin, Germany, on Thursday, January 5th, 2017.
why on a thursday? because you have your usual meetup on thursdays? yep. on THAT thursday, specifically. and because berlin is the center of the world, of course If it was a few months off and I had time to make reservations and plans I might consider going. Hell, I would probably go because I haven't had a really good currywurst in years. I can't remember the name but there was a great place near checkpoint Charlie at the mall on Leipziger Platz that had the best currywurst mit pommes frites on the planet (but only when served with a nice Weltenburger doppelbock). Center of the world? I'm a beer lover so I guess I'd have to agree with that. Best Curry in town: http://www.konnopke-imbiss.de/My mouth is now drooling. Looking at that website is like food porn. I want currywurst so bad now. I just can't get it here because it ends up tasting like hotdogs with nasty curry powder on ketchup. |
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I have a question about this: If any exchange get "hacked" (Wether it's an inside job or no) the Bitcoin price will go down like the Mt Gox case or Bitfinex in august, so what do the hackers do with the stolen BTC? Hold? Spend? Dump?
I read a thread on a dark web forum about Bitcoin where one person claimed to have stolen thousands of btc. He said he goes to an exchange like BTCe and watches large walls form (say 500 btc wall). He then sells down to the wall and stops to wait for more buy orders to appear above the wall then sells again. He did that repeatedly over a period of months in 2015. Remember, if you stole the Bitcoin you don't really care what you sell it at because anything is profit for you. His story could be complete bullshit but you never know. Successful thieves are arrogant and like sharing the story of their success so it might be true. |
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because they already have them and exchange them for money would be more expensive and harder?
That's true if you assume the only people that spend Bitcoin are the people mining it (and that could be true). You don't feel that anyone buys Bitcoin to spend as currency? Do you think that's because of the difficulty of purchasing Bitcoin or the expensive exchange fees between currencies? Stock Delco themselves greatly affect the state of affairs with respect to bitcoin. True |
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Yet again, here's a thread 9 miles long with only one short answer.
When does anything created die? When did the Model-T ford truck die? When did pet rocks die? When did 8 bit computers die? When did VHS Tape Players die? When did the Geoworks Ensemble GUI die? When did Lotus 1-2-3 die? When did dBase die? When did FoxPro die? When did 35mm film cameras die?
Anyone figured it out yet?
Answer: When people get tired of it, it's no longer useful or something better comes along.
/thread
Everyone knows that the sad fate of Bitcoin predicted how users of social networks and forums, as well as reputable business publications such as Forbes, Guardian, Washington Post and others. But their forecasts fortunately did not materialize. Doesn't matter. What I said is not a prediction, it's a statement of pure simple fact. When will Bitcoin, CDs, floppydisks, VHS players, dubstep, disco, black dildos, margaritas, orchestras, cream cheese, cigarettes, Philly cheesesteaks, fleshlight jack off toys, tin cans, poodle skirts, blenders, coffee makers, Ron Popeils vegamatic, hummingbird feeders, model T ford trucks and swimming pool heaters die? When people get tired of it, it's no longer useful or something better comes along. |
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It's embarrassing to see how many people understand nothing about taxes. How do they survive in society not understanding their taxation responsibilities and why are more of them not in prison? |
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I'm looking for a application of widget that I could install on my windows computer that will show me bitcoin value live with some stats or graphs or whatever.
Like the one on coindesk website, is there any?
Please do suggest whatever you use for this purpose.
Like this? I just coded this after seeing this topic.  I can share the code if anybody is interested. - I am not in the habit of releasing .exe so you have to compile it yourself. - The code is written in C♯ - It is less than 30 lines of code (pretty naked and straight forward) and uses an external library ( Here) available through NuGet. Leave your suggestions here and I will dust up the code and release it if there was any interest. That's nice but I think most people can afford to waste the 1.9 seconds it takes to open a google window. That would probably be nice for someone without working hands like Dr. Stephen Hawking though. Unfortunately, anyone that would need that to be done for them will most likely need you to release an .exe for it. If they could compile it themselves they could write it themselves. |
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I think the present political climate in America is another thing to consider, and this is taking shine of other news.
I think you're right about that. All I see lately is Donald Trump, dead celebrities, the weather, Donald Trump, dead celebrities, the weather, Donald Trump, dead celebrities, the weather. Have you tried switching channels? Personally, I don't have a TV altogether, and you may want to throw away yours. Whenever I see a TV broadcast somewhere, I feel loathe by the amount of advertising being thrown on me as well as the way the information is being fed. It is intended to hit mainly on emotions, not caring much about factual content and its authenticity (as well as impartial coverage), and you can't efficiently and coherently process what is actually being told to you. I understand that otherwise it would be boring, and ordinary people would simply turn off their TVs, but if I want emotions, I'd rather watch a movie (with no ads either) It's all channels. I hate tv too but the wife is addicted to syfy network and the news channels so it's on all the time in my house. I can't even get away from it in the kitchen because the crazy woman bought a refrigerator with a tv in the door and mounted one behind the mirror in the master bathroom. Most people soak in the tub to relax but she watches fucking tv. The cable installer started laughing when I told him I need a line run to the kitchen and bathroom. |
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IF bitcoin reaches 1000 between now and jan 5th, we'll have the world's first official BITCOIN REACHES 1000 PARTY at Room77 in Graefestrasse in Bitcoinkiez, Berlin, Germany, on Thursday, January 5th, 2017.
why on a thursday? because you have your usual meetup on thursdays? yep. on THAT thursday, specifically. and because berlin is the center of the world, of course If it was a few months off and I had time to make reservations and plans I might consider going. Hell, I would probably go because I haven't had a really good currywurst in years. I can't remember the name but there was a great place near checkpoint Charlie at the mall on Leipziger Platz that had the best currywurst mit pommes frites on the planet (but only when served with a nice Weltenburger doppelbock). Center of the world? I'm a beer lover so I guess I'd have to agree with that. |
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Thanks everyone for your kind words, it was not that much work. I'm still most surprised at how unique each year turned out. I expected they would mostly show gains, but they vary so much more than I would have guessed. It really shows the boom and bust cycles. I wonder if it will be more stable with mainstream adoption?
I do appreciate your work in determining the percentage of growth per year. It's nice to see that Bitcoin is following a similar pattern to most stock release growth charts. I didn't expect that. We all get caught up in the perception that Bitcoin is so unique it defies classification, which of course isn't true. With stocks you see a rapid increase in the first few years as a company gains traction in their respective market. Thousands of percent increases are not uncommon because the value of the shares are going from pennies to large dollar amounts. After the first few years it becomes almost impossible for any stock to give a thousand percent increase because the dollar amount necessary is just too far out of reach. For example, at a starting price of $900 Bitcoin would need to grow to $53,307 to gain another 5923% increase as it did in 2014. That means an individual trading in "shares" of Bitcoin will need to pay $53,307 for just one. Even the most wealthy, and foolhardy, investors will do a double take on that one. While insane gains are no longer realistic smaller gains are still impressive. From this point forward, I fully expect Bitcoin to stay in the normal growth range for a mature stock. |
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I think the present political climate in America is another thing to consider, and this is taking shine of other news.
I think you're right about that. All I see lately is Donald Trump, dead celebrities, the weather, Donald Trump, dead celebrities, the weather, Donald Trump, dead celebrities, the weather. |
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that expresses way better what i wanted to say.  you know what? let's change both target and mode: the day bitcoin reaches $3000 hourly average on at least 3 meaningful exchanges, I will pack my toothbrush and alpaca socks, drive to Frankfurt and see what the fuck happens.
How about that?
EDIT: screw the toothbrush Perfect! I'll be driving from Bitburg so I'll bring the beer. I hope you all like pilsner. Bitte ein bit! you must be the most hardcore bitcoinist ever. one that would move to live in BITburg, germany. if i had a start up i would move it there, just for the fun of it. maybe we should forget frankfurt and celebrate our beloved bitcoin in BITburg. man, i hope the is a street called "crypto" there.  I wouldn't move there. I have an uncle that has a small farmhouse and some land between Bitburg and Badum. I go to Deutschland every couple of years and stay with him for a month or so. If there was ever a party in Europe anywhere I'd be driving from my uncles house. Of course, it's not a party without Bitburger Pils right? I was visiting him in 1992 when the Bitburger brewery celebrated their 175th anniversary and they flowed free beer out of the beer fountain in front of the brewery. Maybe we can get them to run the fountain for us. LOL |
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That kind of looks like something I read about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., up 3095% in 3 years from 97c to $31.00. ATH for them was $42.49 (4100% profit WOW). I sure wish I bought up thousands of shares of ACADIA a few years ago but hindsight is 20/20. That's why I always cruse the listings for new releases under a dollar. If you get lucky a thousand dollar investment can make you a millionaire quick.
I think Bitcoin growth would look a lot like Facebook's growth if it was made public from the very beginning. You would see Facebook going from several thousand to hundreds of millions of users.
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^ya in the early days ~20000BTC was like chump change  *bath salts lol Yep, that was the feeling. It's also the reason so many early bitcoiners ended up losing or spending much of those early mines coins. Those coins were just "bath salts" to them. LOL We are talking about the past but we need to face the current now, probably in the future if bitcoin will fail then altcoins will rule and we are talking here again like what if we bought that particular altcoin before. In short, nobody sees the future, and whatever our reaction now is just right with the current situation. Can anyone say something specific about the future cryptocurrency? Each user desires and hopes. Projections for the future bitcoin as strong, but it can be. I hope all the day traders currently pumping the shit out of Bitcoin never lose their momentum. |
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Give me the private keys to your million premined bitcoins or I'll shoot you in the face.
You are the reason we can't have nice things. LOL |
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Give me the private keys to your million premined bitcoins or I'll shoot you in the face.
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Just move all coins out of exchanges.
My shitcoins from cryptsy were lost because i was to lazy to move them out of there.
They can't. Bitcoin has a zero, none, nothing economy. The only reason Bitcoin's exchange rate moves at all is because of day trading. Day traders need to be able to trade. They need btc on the exchange to sell and cash on the exchange to buy at a moments notice. When mega buttloads of btc are stolen at an exchange I don't feel sorry for them because it's mostly day traders losing money. The cash that exchanges hold is almost never stolen because that would cause a real investigation by actual authorities and result in jail time. No one does anything when bitcoin is stolen until you get into the mega thefts like Mark Karpeles pulled off. Even then if MtGox was in a different country Karpeles would never have had the government involved. |
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