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not much more to say than what i have already.
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Btw, did u guys see this: http://www.technologyreview.com/business/39962/Summers says Bitcoin is innovative. No criticisms whatsoever. This guy is one of the founding fathers of our current present day crisis. right up there with Rubin, Greenspan, and Bernanke. He is generally associated with GibsonsParadox for those of you who believe in naked gold shorting. What Summers says about Bitcoin is extraordinary in light of his background. |
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anyone who has that many gold mining companies advertising on his site has to be suspect. @cypherdoc: what would change your current perspective on the precious metals? I think you mentioned the ~$1900 high as one target. Above there, will you be calling for deflation to take hold again, ending the gold bull?
for one thing, Bitcoin would have to fail. don't laugh. its holding steady in the $4's with all other fiat currencies mired around parity with the USD. and i do believe in a future digital currency. also yes, the gold and silver price would have to turn up but especially the miners who i think are leading the price down. its complicated but i would also have to see a certain market structure where the relationships of stocks, commodities, and bonds support the strength in pm's with the USD going off the cliff. none of that exists right now. |
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Interview with former Harvard President and US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers http://www.technologyreview.com/business/39962/ Conceptually, money can exist without a central authority. The United States only got a central bank in 1913, and we were a country with a functioning economy before 1913. There are also private issuers of things that function very much like money—think about Crimson Cash here at Harvard, or American Express traveler's checks.
Bitcoin is one of many innovative technologies that are going to seek to take friction out and provide services to people. You can make a priori arguments about how it will work very well, and you can also raise concerns a priori. And I think if we know anything about new technologies, you just have to wait and see what happens in the marketplace. Everyone thought New Coke would be better than old Coca-Cola and take things by storm, and [former IBM CEO] Tom Watson thought there was only demand in the world for 10 or 12 computers. And so I think history teaches that you can't really forecast which kinds of innovations will ultimately become networked and get to scale.
I can feel a change in the way that media is treating Bitcoin. It's not so long ago that Paul Krugman said Bitcoin was a bad idea and now we have a big shot like Summers saying that Bitcoin is "innovative". It's only a matter before some Wall St hotshot starts to publicly pump Bitcoin! real good find. someone at his level with his kind of influence is big. Summers is also known for his interpretation of Gibson's Paradox. |
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i have 3 ppl who have expressed interest so far. come on you gold bulls; you should subscribe thus encouraging me to go quiet!  |
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Matthew, i'm not looking for your praise. it doesn't have to crash as long as it keeps going in the direction i think it will. you trolled me hard in the other thread too. and thats ok. you've got alot of company here you guys should hope my subscription service takes off so i can take my views private away from this public forum. there's nothing that heats up ppls ire more than an anti gold/silver thread i've found. to invest successfully however one needs to be dispassionate and not take things for granted. there are no givens. but this thread isn't just about gold/silver. its about making the right calls in the general economy of stocks, bonds, commodities and Bitcoin as well and planning for the future. investing in gold and Bitcoin require an understanding of how those assets work too. i've got a few of you interested already. thats plenty for me as all i care about is being recognized for my work. the service will be 2.5 btc's per month and i'll start it up 4/1 on Sunday. for those interested pm me your email and i'll send everyone individual addresses to make your pmt. its not a big deal. investing is a hobby for me that i spend a great deal of time on and enjoy and i have enough wealth accumulated where i just like the challenge of trying to get it right. |
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silver has dumped way more. do i get credit for that? any comments on the other calls?
You're a genius. I bet the silver you sold at $49 was a paper one, wasn't it? Anyway, good luck with in the future! IMO you're going to need it in the paper market. Pretty much soon... no it wasn't. i've made it very clear in many posts that it was physical. i truly believe in what i say. but, Disclosure: i do have a huge short position in bullion in place. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg443129#msg443129How did you pull that off? In my mind there's only one group of people that can have a "short position in bullion" -- miners. All other shorts are just paper shorts. read the post carefully. at the time of that post i had sold my bullion at the local coin dealer. i also put in place short positions using DZZ and ZSL which are the double lever bear etf's on the gold price. one can do both you know.  |
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silver has dumped way more. do i get credit for that? any comments on the other calls?
You're a genius. I bet the silver you sold at $49 was a paper one, wasn't it? Anyway, good luck with in the future! IMO you're going to need it in the paper market. Pretty much soon... no it wasn't. i've made it very clear in many posts that it was physical. i truly believe in what i say. |
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Considering the massive volatility and the fact gold was no where near the top at the time, I have to say yes. It didn't drop back down until September. So it was too early to short. 9 days early in a 11 yr bull mkt for gold and thats a bad call? really? silver has dumped way more. do i get credit for that? any comments on the other calls? |
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I was just told that the disaggregated Commitment of Traders report ( http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm) includes some double counting for the spread trades and can be a bit inaccurate. Does anyone have information on this or are the spread positions in the reportable categories accurate? I'm hoping someone might know a little more about this. i'd like to start a subscription service similar to the other 2 guys on this forum. i would charge whatever they are (haven't looked) and would send out emails 3x per week with charts etc. I could supplement here too if thats what ppl want.
it would be based on my cycle theory combined with my years of experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets.
i would follow Bitcoin, gold/silver, stocks, commodities, and bonds. for anyone who's followed my recommendations since the 8/11 gold thread can see that i've called every major corner in stocks, gold/silver, miners, etc, since then. this has been no small feat.
is there any interest in this? either indicate it here or in a pm to me.
I'm not saying you are being deceitful and I'm not trying to be deceitful but from what I remember you told everyone to short gold far too early. Do you have the links to the posts to back it up? I guess that's probably too much hard work to find those. You say you have "experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets" but do you specifically in commodities? miscreanity seem to understand commodities quite well but you've not impressed me what what you have had to say. You appear to mostly look at charts. Feel free to destroy what I've said. i said to short gold 9d before the top here. how is that "far too early"?: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0its had several devastating drops since then which one could've profited by shorting. i also made it publicly clear in that same thread when i sold silver at at $49 and at an avg price of $44 last May. i also called the top in the pm miners here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg522374#msg522374here was a nice appreciative poster back on 9/23/11: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg541769#msg541769i also said to cover those same pm shorts as well as go long stocks here. this is important to understand for those who insist on just connecting the points btwn 8/9/11 and now to say i was wrong: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg560220#msg560220miscreanity has an incredible understanding of the commodity markets, i agree. but here he had the decency and kindness to say some nice things about my calls from the old thread. you were in the middle of those same discussions. why do u see it differently?: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg810486#msg810486its also important to understand other markets besides commodities as well. understanding the criminal mind of a Wall St trader helps too. i trade more technically and tend not to analyse the excruciating details of commodities like miscreanity. there's just too much info to digest and you will never know it all. i'm pretty good at most fundamentals though. but if you are a fundamentals type trader or don't believe in technicals, my service would not be for you. |
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Is this the one that wasn't including transaction fees?
You must mean transactions, not tx fees. I don't believe so, but the issue of not including transactions is far less serious than some give it credit for. Mining empty blocks will at most slightly increase the time transactions take to get confirmed. There are two larger risks botnets pose to Bitcoin: (1) they could be employed to mount an array of disruptive attacks, possibly even the 51% attack (2) they damage the economy creating downward pressure on the price. Unlike the honest miners, botnet operators can afford to sell their coins at $1. where can we look to see what % of blocks the mystery miner controls? |
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Is this the one that wasn't including transaction fees?
thats a good question. |
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what if i just charged what waveaddict does?
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that was an interesting article. learned alot.
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it doesn't matter what they promised.
oh no, but you can trust them this time, I'm sure! Look at Bernankes face, don't you just trust this guy instinctively? He's even in the blockchain, as you probably know (strings -n 20 blk0001.dat):
:'::.:::::.:::.::.:
: :.: ' ' ' ' : :':
:.: _.__ '.:
: _,^" "^x, :
' x7' `4,
XX7 4XX
XX XX
Xl ,xxx, ,xxx,XX
( ' _,+o, | ,o+,"
4 "-^' X "^-'" 7
l, ( )) ,X
:Xx,_ ,xXXXxx,_,XX
4XXiX'-___-`XXXX'
4XXi,_ _iXX7'
, `4XXXXXXXXX^ _,
Xx, ""^^^XX7,xX
W,"4WWx,_ _,XxWWX7'
Xwi, "4WW7""4WW7',W
TXXWw, ^7 Xk 47 ,WH
:TXXXWw,_ "), ,wWT:
::TTXXWWW lXl WWT:
no, i didn't know that. lol! |
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i'd like to start a subscription service similar to the other 2 guys on this forum. i would charge whatever they are (haven't looked) and would send out emails 3x per week with charts etc. I could supplement here too if thats what ppl want.
it would be based on my cycle theory combined with my years of experience, intuition, and knowledge of financial markets.
i would follow Bitcoin, gold/silver, stocks, commodities, and bonds. for anyone who's followed my recommendations since the 8/11 gold thread can see that i've called every major corner in stocks, gold/silver, miners, etc, since then. this has been no small feat.
is there any interest in this? either indicate it here or in a pm to me.
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see that huge dump in gold right there?
THIS is why i think it will never exceed the Aug 11 highs when i called the top. it has no guts to stand up to a dump in stocks or a rise in the USD as we're seeing today. and if i'm right that we're entering a cyclical downturn in stocks, its gonna get real ugly fast.
edit: how long are u pm miner bulls gonna take this carnage? getting destroyed.
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You don't think 620 its all time high, is marching on?
What do you need to think its marching on then? lol
To stay there, not fall sharply afterwards. tell me that you didn't capitulate and sell your SPXU. |
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no more marching  |
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and AAPL marches on..
Doesn't look all that marchy to me... and the indices are in the red. as is gold and silver. its just a matter of time. |
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