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actually the VIX moved positive right now which is a warning.
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i still say, don't get sucked in. picking corners is difficult and i'm usually early.
watch the Dow. i think we're in a topping process and if it turns down, gold and silver will follow.
actually, today's ramp in gold and silver will act as a governor on how high the Dow and stocks can go. these things cycle and we've had 3 mo of continuous inhaling. time to exhale.
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this will be a death spiral.
If this is going to cause a rush back into the USD, then why stop printing to alleviate the debt problem? As long as there's still confidence in the dollar (or any fiat), it can be inflated and still remain in use. It's a positive feedback loop... until it fails. governments have shown themselves to be completely unreliable. unfortunately any system depending on humans succumbs to corruption.
You said it yourself - by this reasoning, necessary restraint in the form of monetary deflation isn't going to happen. If an easy way out is perceived as being possible (in this case monetary inflation), it will be the chosen option. Several thousand years of history have shown this, and the past few decades (especially the 2000s) have reinforced the corruption point yet again. At epic scale, no less - TARP, MF Global, LTRO, etc... The only way you can refute that is by having confidence in the world's current leadership. Do you? i believe we've entered the age (12 yrs ago) where the CB's are losing control of the situation. as i said before, we've had 2 major >50% stock mkt crashes in 12 yrs plus an ongoing housing crash, the largest sovereign debt default ever with more in line. stock and commodity mkts worldwide have been declining since last Spring with the US temporarily decoupling. i think its best not to think about what the Fed will or will not do and try to predict what will happen as a result but to instead just look at the facts and what the markets have done and are doing as evidence of what is about to happen. |
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http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/55db7e7e-74ca-11e1-ab8b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1qBm2j8mxdo you remember what i just said about the Greek CDS issue being much more serious than the market is leading on? this will be a death spiral. "The market’s concern centres on a so-called 60-day look-back clause in standard CDS contracts, which could be used to activate a payout on new contracts in the wake of a “credit event” that was declared on March 9, when Greece secured private sector participation for its debt restructuring.
Bankers fear the rising yields on Greek debt, and uncertainty surrounding the CDS trigger process, could hit sentiment in other eurozone bond markets, where borrowing costs for indebted governments have fallen from recent peaks.
'This is yet another problem that will deter investors and banks from buying Greek bonds,' said a senior CDS trader at one European bank. 'If you can’t use CDS to hedge the risk of buying Greek bonds, then you may decide not to buy Greek bonds.'
Banks have stopped offering prices on Greek sovereign credit default swaps because a payout on new instruments could be forced immediately due to technical problems with the documentation used to settle contracts."edit: at least we know who's been the one's writing the CDS.
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The loyalty in this thread concerns me.
In essence, I'm scared of one person having influence over Bitcoin's protocol. I trust nobody and neither should you. Bitcoin is a powerful technology and if anything will kill it, corruption will.
Good luck with that, I want to see your version of the client, security holes and all. Can't improve it yourself? Then stfu. Why would anyone improve something if they don't know what to improve? I will continue to speak. All voices need to be heard regardless of skill. or logic. |
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whats the new red/green bar on the right indicate?
All the trades that have been made in the last X minutes, where X is the number set at "Sales range". Green trades have been buys, red ones have been sells. Trades at the bottom are the most recent trades. thanks. where can i see the Sales Range? |
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whats the new red/green bar on the right indicate?
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the other thing that Gavin has demonstrated is consistency and stability. i can only imagine the large number of ppl who have tried to coerce or manipulate Gavin in who knows how many different ways that could've greatly changed or destroyed the protocol as we've come to know it.
the guy above says that Gavin should have a more "human" element. i think he's already demonstrated himself to be very approachable and friendly and is available to explain and defend the approach he's taken with Bitcoin. he turns out to be a great ambassador.
Satoshi chose him for a reason and it was to maintain the principles and tenets of what he created. this is the contract that most of us have signed up for.
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It wouldn't be right to change any aspect of the subsidy rules in Bitcoin. These rules are a "contract" that all Bitcoin users have agreed to. The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime. It's technically very difficult, anyway. You don't need just 51% of miners: you'd need essentially 99% of all users. Thank heavens for this. |
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What, you shorted bullion?
Well as a matter of fact... |
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Of course not and I wouldn't want to do away with all the Bitcoin amendments (BIPS) either. The supply feature though I think is inviolate. |
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US constitution has a mechanism of amending itself
Yes it does and look how its been subverted in just four years. |
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on the contrary, we need p2p to maintain a rules based system. governments have shown themselves to be completely unreliable. unfortunately any system depending on humans succumbs to corruption.
Please don't forget, developers and users are also humans. Let's say by the year 2020, it becomes painful clear that for whatever reason bitcoin won't survive without changing the 21m cap rule. The tech lead, development team and 60% users voted to lift the rule, you are among the 40%, you think you can keep your rule? I think close to one hundred percent of the people here including the devs are here because of the fixed supply concept. No one is going to change those rules. |
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based on 7 yrs of holding hundreds of pounds of bulky silver/gold in safes at home and going thru the process of buying and then selling it, i just don't see how this thousand year old means of transacting can possibly match the needs of the present day internet connected economy. the taxes to be paid (almost half in my case) will alone take much of my profit. i even had some at Credit Suisse in Switzerland back in 2009 but sold it and paid my taxes cuz i was terrified it would be confiscated with what went down with UBS. if i want to pay a talented 18 yo coder in Azerbaijan to provide a patch for me i can't do it with gold even if i could shave it down to the right amount (big if). i can with Bitcoin. if central banks or gov'ts want to balance their payments nightly in the future with a stable, non-inflatable currency, they can't with gold, but can with Bitcoin (see George Selgin).
Likewise, I was painfully aware of all these shortcomings physical metal has, before I became aware of bitcoin's existence, I had been thinking about a "digital gold standard" for many years. I thought such a system only requires two attributes: a globally accessible database, and limited value units in it. A database modeling a virtual earth will likely work well as I discussed in one of my early post . The way I see it, the "P2P" attribute is not required for such a system. If global fiat system collapses tomorrow, the UN/IMF/BIS (or whatever new organization they prop up) can release such as centralized system, touting its "transparency" and "consensus building" among nations. Will people around the world use it? With world governments' support, the answer probably is a yes. The bottom line is, humans are socialized animals, and we need government, at least at the current development stage. Like gold/silver, Bitcoin itself has no value, it's just a tool, carrying a community's belief and trust. If US government has had a responsible monetary policy, why do we still need Bitcoin? if everyone has faith in Facebook, why can't FB credit become a world currency? on the contrary, we need p2p to maintain a rules based system. governments have shown themselves to be completely unreliable. unfortunately any system depending on humans succumbs to corruption. |
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Very much liked your post, cypherdoc! I fully share your trust in Bitcoin, the only thing I'm worried about is the entire tainted coins/ non- fungibility issue. Will that be a real danger for Bitcoin? Otherwise, I see nothing that in BTC's way that cannot be overcome.
nah, i don't worry about that. Mark is just trying to help the other exchanges. this is a temporary issue and the market will learn to ignore taints and treat them as fungible with all other coins. I hate to put a wet blanket on you, but Bitcoin is still an experimental currency that still being released with sub 1.0 beta version numbers. No technology is 100% safe. Thanks for the warning. Now sell me your Bitcoins. |
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How the heck did it get unlocked?
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just think how much money you could've made by selling in 1999 and 2007 before the crashes.
yeah, but what if I took his advice and shorted in 2004, 2005, or 2006? and i think he'll be right again with the next crash.
I am sure he will, according to the broken clock theory.  this is where my cycle work comes in. |
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there's absolutely no way i can maintain 2 of these, lol.  |
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Very much liked your post, cypherdoc! I fully share your trust in Bitcoin, the only thing I'm worried about is the entire tainted coins/ non- fungibility issue. Will that be a real danger for Bitcoin? Otherwise, I see nothing that in BTC's way that cannot be overcome.
nah, i don't worry about that. Mark is just trying to help the other exchanges. this is a temporary issue and the market will learn to ignore taints and treat them as fungible with all other coins. |
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how much gold buying leverage is denominated in gold? none that i know of.
the debt is denominated in USD's. what happens to the gold price if the USD starts rising again b/c of debt deleveraging in other asset classes?
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