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June 2022: Everyone is depressed that Bitcoin fell from 200K to 60K. Beartrolls gloat, TERA222 is posting on each page that Bitcoins is going back to 30K. Deja vu!
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So... this means I have to start thinking about making an actual career and stuff?  We may have to shelve plans on that 10 bedroom mansion with 25 acres of land until 6-12 months after the halving, yes. Well, some whale lost his patience, so what? May be he is an early adopter, or may be he bought at 18K-ish and now is furious he lost so much  The price will recover sooner or later. I am still determined to start selling for a house at 40K-ish price. And I will hold 2/3 BTC's until I retire. I don't care if the 2014-2015 scenario will repeat or not. Btw, there are 3 differences: In 2015: 1. most of the people didn't know about bitcoin, let alone buying it. Now most of the people know and are thinking about buying. May be they are waiting for a good price or LN  2. no hope for Institutional investments. Now Coinbase, Van Eck Associates Corp., SolidX, Goldman and Sachs are ready to start deals. 3. miners were still very profitable, while now they are on the edge. As from today all home miners in countries with electricity price >0.14$ lost their profit. Soon the rest will follow. Usually this means a coordinated attack to pump the price. We'll see... |
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BTG is planning a HF with different parameters that will require 2.5GB VRAM in order to become asic resistant. A new version of the miners will have to be made to support the new equihash algo: https://forum.bitcoingold.org/t/our-new-equihash-equihash-btg/1512Other coins will follow with the exception of zcash. As we all know, zooko was bribed by Jihan Wu, so no HF is expected. Peter Todd exposed him in twitter. Ver and Wu hate Todd for being a pillar in Bitcoin core team and excluded him from the trusted setup of zcash. Furthermore, Todd said in a tweet, that zooko deleted his asic resistant algo. Anyway, this month the asics will be available for all, and they are 10x more efficient than the gpus with the current 144MB requirements for VRAM. If people are stupid to buy them the difficulty will rise to the heaven. Hopefully BTG and the rest could be mined with 3GB cards with the bios mods for the current equihash. |
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bitcoin just had a 14.7% difficulty change upwards. that's the biggest since january. there sure is a lot of firepower out there somewhere.
The difficulty increased by 634 billion which is the largest increase in the history of bitcoin. The increase in this period alone is nearly equal to the entire network difficulty 1 year ago. This is incredible indeed. The revenue for a single s9 asic dropped to 0.00072 BTC per day, around $5.47 at the moment. These beasts consume 1370W, so the profit is much less now. Wu and his buddy Ver are desparately pumping beecash with the hope to attract noobs with fake profit promisses. I am astonished that there are so many naiive people to trust them with their money. Anyway, under these circumstances even if bitcoin's price continues sideways or bart-style jumps and drops in June-July, in August-December we will see quite a spectacular increase IMO. |
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I am astonished by the stubbornnes of Jihan Wu. Yesterday he and his sockpuppets pumped bcash 10% with the hope for better mining rewards. For several hours they got it, but after a small percentages of miners switched to bcash, the difficulty rose and again their reward is equal to that of mining Bitcoin. How many attempts he needs, to understand that if Bitcoin is not rising there is NO way bcash should be more profitable. In 1.5 days is the next Bitcoin mining adjustment. A new 12% increase in difficulty is expected ( https://diff.cryptothis.com/), which means more than 0.6$ loss for an s9 (daily revenue dropping from 6.2 to 5.6$ at the current price). With that pace in 2-3 monts the revenue will drop to 2-3$, not to mention the expenses for electricity and rent, which vary from 1.7$ and 4$. I've been through this situation many times mining eth, zec, etc. Each period, when the mining profit drops to cents, is followed by a period of an extreme increase of the price. The explanation is clear - the miners enter a hibernation state of holding (i.e. not selling everything they mine with a currently small profit). If the rigs are on a loss, they just stop them untill the next increase. Conclusion: The so called 'bear' period is at its end. I expect 2x-4x increase of the price in the coming 6 months/1 year.  |
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Our Bitcoin, who art in blockchain,
hallowed be thy Name,
thy ATH come,
thy Lightning be done,
on exchanges as it is in github.
Give us this day our daily 1% rise.
And forgive us bying shitcoins,
as we forgive those
who are trolling on WO.
And lead us not into trading,
but learn us to HODL.
For thine is the blockchain,
and the Segwit, and the Lightning,
for ever and ever. Amen.
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This is a fake twitter account posting 100 times a day the same message about Bitmex futures. Regarding the reddit post, there are so many mistakes there, I don't know where to begin with. Clearly the author doesn't make a difference between futures settled by fiat and real bitcoin trading. |
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I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new s9's (and equivalent) plugged in, their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not. That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts: https://whattomine.com/asichttps://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-charthttps://diff.cryptothis.com/Why would Bitmain be forced to pump the price up? It has been quite sometime since the S9 came out. I am quite certain that they have already developed the next generation of ASIC chip and are mining with those for themselves. If not, they are probably pretty far along the process. Also, BCH is basically Jihan Wu's creation. If Bitmain isn't far along creating a better ASIC chip, or the new chip isn't enough an improvement, I suspect Bitmain is more likely to prop up the price of BCH rather than BTC. We will see. The reason Bitmain is now so dominate in the mining sector is because they were one of the few that managed to survive and thrive after the 2014/2015 bear market. The development of new generation asic takes months and millions of investment. Let's say that Jihan will be ready to produce the next s11 with the 10nm Samsung chip in 2019. If the price of Bitcoin is the same, all s9's will be useless in 6 months tops from now. How are all supposed to start buying the new devices, provided that they didn't return their money for s9s? (43% increase for the last 3 monts speaks of the number of new devices bought). Even with s11, in 2019 their profit will be near 0, so to speak DOA. Who will buy a 3000$ device with a near 0 profit and old devices with no ROI? Regarding the BeeCasH - the hashrate is 10x less. Any increase in the price of BeeCasH attracts miners, raises the difficulty (remember it is daily adjusted) and the profit at the end of the day is the same as with mining bitcoin. We had a fresh example - BeeCasH price was 5x pumped but the profit was only equal to the profit of bitcoin - 10-50% increase during the pump. Only if the price of BeeCasH is 10x compared to the present, the profit may become bigger permanently. This is ridiculous btw. So most of the miners will prefer to hold and even buy bitcoins in order to reach better price. With or without Jihan - they need at least 4x times increase i.e. around 30K price, to keep the hopes of ROI and further profit. |
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I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new s9's (and equivalent) plugged in, their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not. That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts: https://whattomine.com/asichttps://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-charthttps://diff.cryptothis.com/ |
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For the last 90 days the difficulty rose by 43%. Yesterday for example at the end of the 13 day epoch it rose 4%. More and more miners are plugged in and the difficulty will continue to rise. In 3 months with the current price of Bitcoin the revenue will be less than the electricity cost 0.06$ (which is the best price miners can get in most places). There are a few places with 0.04$ but I am not sure how many asics are there. In other words, Jihan Wu must stop the production of s9's for good. Even if he invests tens and hundred of millions in the next generation 10nm Samsung chips, at the time it reaches the market, they will be DOA. The only way out for him is to stop pumping bcash and start pumping Bitcoin. bcash will never be more profitable for more than a day, this shitcoin is bought only by Wu's puppet Rojer Ver.
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I am starting to like this guy!  |
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Rick just came home from work and asked "What the fuck is going on with Bitcoin, man ?"
I just shrugged and replied with "No idea, dude."
What do I tell him about this dump ?
I have no idea what's going on.
I think you already gave him a honest assessment. You've set enough aside to carry you to the next halvening. Light some candles, pour a drink, cuddle, and forget about it for a while. Nothing to worry about for the long term guys. I assume you’re both willing to HODL until 6-12 months after the next halving? That’s when the real fun will start, what we’ll see until then is just posturing & whales playing around. 6-12 months after the next halving - 1 bitcoin = over $50,000 We are in a unique situation now. Due to the rising difficulty the reward of the miners is the lowest in history. In 3-5 months their profit will be near 0 or a negative number, which means those with an expensive electricity will have to stop mining. Then the difficulty will drop a bit and those with cheap electricity will continue to mine with a very small profit in therm of cents. They will prefer to hold the new bitcoins waiting for much better price. My prediciton is that a new storm of ATH's will come out of this situation long before the next halvening. |
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I have a dream... This year to see Bitcoin ATH and beecash below 200$. |
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I am panic buying with my last fiat reserve Currently Bitcoin mining revenue is around 0.5$ per Th, meaning that s9 revenue is around 7$ (x14) per day with cost of electricity 1.7-3.4$ depending on the price (0.05$ - 0.1$). Not to mentioin the price of the rent/cooling etc. Last month the revenue dropped to 0.45$ - the lowest in the last 5 years. According to the diff. chart in 6 monts with the current price the revenue will be around 0,125$ per Th, i.e., 1.75$ per day, which is not enough to cover the electricity price. Of course, when this price is reached many miners will switch on/off their asics depending on their price of electricity. So the big mining farm whales are preparing to raise the price 2x-5x in the coming months. This is a child play for them, considering the income of Bitmain only. And we are talking only about miner whales. Wall street is just to enter massively the market, knowing that the time to buy cheap is running away. |
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They say sell in May and go away. I bought (quite a lot) and I am here to stay: always the sum I am not afraid to lose. We will see how this unfolds: still bullish
I panic-bought TFD at $8340 so I can sleep better this weekend. Not that it matters a year from now. I seem to get quite good at calling the bottoms. And then totally fuck up the tops :-) I think I found the bottom!  |
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It's too bad zcash team is corrupted and don't want to fork to make Zcash asic resistant. New asic miners are 10 times more efficient than a gpu rig with the same price. They are already accesible by some and soon will be available for sales. The developer Zooko is a paid by Ver/Wu shill. He deleted Peter Todd's Asic resistance code. Peter Todd is a famous Bitcoin Core developer, and as we know Ver is in open war with them. We all know that the money in zcahs team came exclusively by Ver, so no doubt what is going on. Here are links of Todd's twits: https://twitter.com/peterktodd/status/992309206572138496https://twitter.com/peterktodd/status/993108684585644038 |
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