10/15 games played and we have jayce, Inagame and cryptofrka with a fantastic performance so far:



I guess we have some new Real Sociedad and Palmeiras fans now All three hit on all their picked draws so far and that is always a good recipe to sit at the top of the leaderboard. And normally you guys should not only top our leaderboard, but also the overall one - before the 3 games that just finished that was already the case and you all hit 2/3 on these.
@entebah is in the hunt with 7 correct picks, but the bad news is, that he has the same remaining picks as Inagame Our 3 leaders don't have the same remaining picks and jayce is probably in for some super boring 0-0's tomorrow

Keeping my fingers crossed for you guys


Yes, he is on vacation. I sent him my picks, but not sure, if he placed the bet, so I decided to sit out this week in our thread. But my picks were bad anyway....only 5 correct I think.

Zumal das ja auch vollkommen dem Geist dieser tollen Bewegung widerspricht, wo ganz altruistisch jeder Beteiligte sogar Verluste hinnimmt - Hauptsache die Reichen verlieren ihr Geld.

Für den Kryptobereich sind diese Ponzi-Gruppen überhaupt nicht förderlich, denn wenn man eventuell über die Jahre ein bisschen Vertrauen und Seriösität aufgebaut, dann reisst man dadurch sehr viele Mauern öffentlichkeitswirksam wieder ein.
Natürlich passieren diese Dinge schon immer, aber ohne großen Trommelwirbel und halt eher aus der anderen Richtung kommend. Jeder weiss das und es ist auch nicht gut, aber zumindest image-mäßig finde ich diese Variante dann doch noch besser irgendwie.

Here are the picks for week 4:



Only Barca seems to be a lock for this week, although we have a few games (Lyon, Everton, Milan, Bayern, Leicester), where just one or two users are trying to be super smart, lets see if this will work out If it does, then thats huge, if not you have to catch up to the herd with another suprise result you have probably picked. No risk, no fun.

The deciding games this week seem to be Torino-Fiorentina, Arsenal-ManU and Villareal - Real Sociedad, where we have a wild mix of picks. All other games have a more or less strong consensus. Not covered results apart from Barca winning for sure are: Wins from Bordeaux, Brighton and Bologna and the draws at Everton, Munich and in Copa Libertadores (draw isn't too unlikely here, huh ? Why did no one pick it I think I will just bet on the draw in a single bet now.)

Good luck I feel that this week one of us will be the participant to have one more correct pick than all the others. And everyone chasing him will be hoping he doesn't have Barca win

Public table

Is Stuttgart finally in the (from me) long awaited slump ? Is Mainz finally getting their act together or was the win against Leipzig just a fluke ? I don't know for sure, I only know that these odds for Mainz look huge today. They have a new coach, Christian Heidel aka Mr. Mainz is back as manager, they signed Kohr & Da Costa from Frankfurt and they have underperformed all season long - Mainz isn't that bad.

Stuttgart is really playing a good season considering they are freshly promoted. But they only won 5 games, so they didn't win 13. At home they actually didn't win a single game so far, it's in away games, where they are collecting most of their points. And I doubt they will get their first home win for this season today, because Mainz must be super confident travelling there and Stuttgart is lacking confidence. I will even go as far to say that Mainz will take all 3 points and thus I will try my luck with the @4.60+ for the away win this evening.

I watched a bit and the result and the fierceness of both teams didn't surprise me tbh, because....

a) There is some rivalry in handball, but also in general between these two countries, because they are neighbouring states. This is probably more valid for the polish side, but still a german team never wants to lose against Poland (and Austria and Netherlands and France, you name it).
b) I don't know any german NT in any sports that does not give 100% even in a meaningless game in WC/EC/Olympics; it's just in their DNA and what they are expected to do and what they expect from themselves as well (see for example their record in third place matches for football WC's); and even the commentators were going kind of crazy as if this was some final . Albeit germans often have some problems with their national identity and it's even frowned upon to state and show you are proud to be a german, these guys (and girls) still give their everything for the country, but it's not "allowed" to be a patriot publicly.

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Anyone still has any doubts that Denmark will win the title easily ? Odds are still 3+ ......

I personally don't like unmanaged markets, because I always feel I am very vulnerable due to broadcasting delays, getting distracted etc. And yep, these markets tend to have lower liquidity and are generally pretty wild, so my guess would be that most punters/traders do prefer managed markets. You are just more likely to leave your bets in the markets for a longer time, while with unmanaged markets this becomes more of a hop on hop off thing.

Yes, Mikkel Hansen (and Johan Hansen) already missed the game against Japan. Hald and Gidsel got sick yesterday and stayed in hotel, while 3 others players are feeling unwell. Otoh Denmark got Emil Jakobsen back and he didn't fail to disappoint, scoring 12 goals in his debut at this WC. I wouldn't jump on Croatia right away though, but wait for the result from Argentina game. I do think they want to restore their pride and we will see a different showing today, but if they are out already before the game, a lot of motivation might be gone despite the pride factor.

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I remember the german team doc getting asked what he fears most from a medical point of view. And he said gastrointestinal illness, because it's so common for foreigners travelling there and could put your tournament success in jeopardy easily. Because of this, all german players started a perenterol treatment 10 days before flying to Egypt.

The full result after a green wave today:



Super high average, because most favs did their job this weekend. The 12 correct picks for @arallmuus are amazing, but - as so often - there is a guy who is that one pick better; or luckier.

The 2021 standings:



The 100 fame points put arallmuus at the top, but he loses the tie-breaker with Turquinito because of his insane average of 9.7 for 2021

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Edit: Bad luck for @jayce with the side event

When I wrote this, I never doubted Mahomes would start and the market knew as well. And yes, I still like this bet very much and even more now, because we get better odds after Mahomes has been cleared to play.

I found the early odds fair with a fully fit Mahomes and now we have better odds with a Mahomes, who I suspect to not being able to perform at a high level - I wouldn't be surprised to see Henne taking over again at some point during the game. This injury looked very weird; in the slow-mo you could see basically nothing that pointed to concussion issues, so like some media reported, this is a tweaked nerve or whatever and this is not good imo and will still bother him. Reid says he is fine, looks himself etc., but I don't believe in all this bla bla from team officials or players, not in NFL and not in any other sport, what else should they say ? These people lie all over the place or don't know better.

I wrote about KC not being that good anymore for the Browns game and I still think so. They win all the time, but it's not convincing and the Browns weren't up for the challenge. Their defense is/was too bad in the end and Mayfield, well he is still Mayfield and needs to mature a lot.
I was often critical about the Bills during the season, but I changed my mind a bit. They are really good and not worse than KC (even better imo with a banged up Mahomes).

I might be totally wrong and KC will win this easily with 6 TDs from Mahomes, but for me this is 50/50 or 49/51 Lots of gut feeling involved and I am even FOMOing a bit, so that I will place 50% of my stake pre-match and add the other 50% inplay if the Bills go down by a TD.
I don't necessarily recommend to follow though, but I am already excited for this game from a football fan perspective, because it will be a good one. And with a (for me) nice value bet on top, what else can you ask for on a boring Sunday

66% done and we have arallmuus in the lead with 8 correct picks (while the average is only 4.32 !), followed by Turquinito and kryptqnick:



The leaderboard had one lucky guy sitting alone at the top before the three evening matches, but arallmuus should be right up there going 3/3 in these. If you win this MM, you should probably send some wine or beer to Seville and buy a jersey of Betis Speaking of winning, we have the rare event of our internal competition being already finished, since no one can catch arallmuus no more, congratulations to 100 fame points

sla******n is doing very good as well and somehow sounds familiar to me, maybe this user (?).

For the side event we saw 31 goals so far. This is an average of 3.1 and if we continue at this pace, we will see 46/47 goals and entebah or dittoup will be the winner. But football ain't that easy and predictable Maybe Bayern will win 8-0 again tomorrow, rdbase will certainly cheer for that to happen again

Stuttgart losing 0-3 at Bielefeld was a bit of a surprise, but they were missing two important pieces in Gonzalez and Wamangituka, while the tough schedule is taking a toll on them slowly but surely. Both players will be back today and Stuttgart has done quite well at Freiburg in this derby in recent years.
Freiburg are on a very good run themselves and they are usually a very good home side. These teams already met twice at Stuttgart this season with each getting a win, Freiburg in Bundesliga, Stuttgart in the DFB cup. The odds for Stuttgart have come down a bit and I agree that they are more likely to win, though this screams draw very much. I decided to bet on btts here in the end.

I will parlay this with Bremen X2. Hertha is shitty these days despite all the money and big ambitions they have - and the reason for that is coach Labbadia imo. He is good for some time at a new club, but fades the longer he stays there and in the end loses the locker room and/or the trust from the GM. This is what happens right now there and I wouldn't be surprised if the players don't give 100% just to get him sacked.
Hertha has been poor offensively and that should play into the hands of Bremen, who traditionally have a poor defense, but do very well in that department this season due to changing their tactical scheme a bit. They have been competitive in all their matches and are on a good run lately; all in all they are quite hard to beat. The H2H shows Bremen not losing at Berlin in the last 6 years. 2.20-ish for Hertha is a joke.

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Thanks, I even found a nice little diamond at halftime

Yep, looked quite good, but Switzerland probably has some betting people in their squad and they all had Portugal -3.5

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I am going with my polish friends again today with two bets, although Hungary got some praise in here lately^^ Normally Hungary should and will win this, but nearly @5 for Poland is too high. The HC is only +2.5/-2.5 and I don't see a lot of value there, but ML is worth a try with smallish stakes.
This is a must win for Poland and they could find themselves in a very comfortable position before their last match against Germany, because Spain and Hungary will meet in last round and that one is played before the Poland - Germany match.
Some bucks on the over 25.5 TT as well. This will be a hard fought one and Poland scored only 30 against Uruguay (GER/HUN scored 40+ against them), but they took it easy I guess against an overwhelmed opponent. 

Here are the entries with (still) big dreams for all participants:



We have 4 (!) games with full consensus this week: PSG, Bayern, Leicester and Atletico. And there is one game, where one brave user went against 20 others: Lazio. I doubt all these 5 games will go as "expected" and my guess is, that Lazio and/or Leicester will disappoint.

Other than that only a Wolfsburg and Betis win isn't covered. And we have a whopping 12 draws picked for Stoke - Watford, that must be a record; 10 draws for the Copa Sudamericana final is a lot also, our expert Turquinito probably influenced some of us with his insight and analysis

Here is a better overview for the side event:



mitchr4, JanpriX and rdbase will be in good shape here, if a lot or very few goals are scored, since nearest to the number wins, if no one hits the correct number.

As always: Good luck

Public table

I will join you on the Switzerland train, with HC+3.5 and a little bit of ML @4.50. I don't know what makes the swiss team so good, but they are doing fantastic so far considering they come out of holidays basically. They give me some Football EC 1992 Denmark vibes

Cross-comparisons are always a bit meh, but here we go:

Switzerland - Iceland 20-18
Portugal - Iceland 25-23

Switzerland - Norway 25-31
Portugal - Norway 28-29

So the ML and HC look about right on paper, but this will be a low scoring game, so +3.5 has some more value than in an expected high scoring one.

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Germany played very good and yes, it was probably a bit lucky to win that one comfortably-looking in the end, but I have had it the other way round gazillion of times as well, thats just betting Germany is practically out of the tournament now, but they will still give 100% as they always do. I was hoping for some good odds against Brazil, but it's just 1.18, with the HC sitting at 5.5

I will go with Gladbach today, although I think Dortmund will win (or not lose) this. But these odds for Gladbach are just too good to pass, if we look at some facts.

First the bad one: Gladbach has a super poor record against Dortmund in recent years, 12 losses in a row including one cup game. Now you could say that it's very likely that Gladbach will break this negative streak sooner or later, while others would say that if they beat them 12 times in a row, there is no reason to believe they won't be able to do it a 13th time.

What gives me hope:

1) Gladbach is always playing a bit up and down to their competition. You see them struggling against weaker teams only to surprise everyone by going toe to toe with the big teams, at least at home. You could see that when they beat Bayern and Leipzig at home earlier this season, but also in CL where they were super strong against Inter and Real. So these big games seem to bring the best out of them.
2) They will get Thuram and Embolo back for this game after red card and Covid. This is huge, because with them (and Plea and Stindl), they are such a force upfront and Dortmund will have their hands full defensively.
3) Dortmund is in a slump. After Favre was sacked I thought that things would change, but they are not any better than the table shows. They have all these super skilled players, but they don't click. They are pathetic in converting their often very good goal opportunities and an out of form Haaland doesn't help (watch him score a hattrick today, after I wrote this^^). They will still miss Witsel and Delaney is suspended, they will get Can back today though.

If Gladbach is able to just forget about the H2H, they have very good chances to get the full 3 points; they are not worse than Dortmund, they play at home and they are more confident. Odds at 3+ are very nice imo.

Tough one , although they were never "in the range" from the latter stages of 1st half on.

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I am going with Spain TT over 29.5 today. This will be the first real test for the germans and their decimated and newly put together defense. Hungary scored 29 against them and one would expect Spain to be able to score the same and a bit more. It always depends a bit on the pace of the game, but Germany will most likely trail most of the time, so slowing down the game might not always be possible. In their last 3 H2H games, Spain scored 31/30/33, so this bet won't be a walk in the park, but I don't trust the german defense with missing the Kiel block.

Thought about adding Denmark ML to juice up the odds a bit, but something tells me that would be a bad idea

I wouldn't create a new account without talking to the support or Steve first. Maybe they can lift the restrictions on your old account or close the old one and allow you to open a new one. Just creating a new one will result in issues sooner or later most likely - and some headache, if you happen to win big amounts, maybe even in MM

Thanks for the side events @Turquinito I have added a bit to the public table again for everyone to track better, hope this is ok for you.

Here are my picks, it looks kind of easy, famous last words.....

M'Gladbach - Dortmund
Stoke City - Watford DRAW
Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier
Southampton - Arsenal
Leverkusen - Wolfsburg DRAW
Milan - Atalanta DRAW
Real Sociedad - Real Betis
Monaco - Olympique de Marseille
Aston Villa - Newcastle United
Lanus - Defensa y Justicia DRAW (if the expert says so^^)
Schalke - Bayern
Brentford - Leicester City
Manchester United - Liverpool
Lazio - Sassuolo
Atletico Madrid - Valencia

First had a no-draw-strategy apart from the Lanus game, but it looked kind of weird, so added some X's

Total goals: 38

Screenshot

Just heard on TV that this tournament will not be played in 12 different countries as initially planned ages ago. It's not yet decided how the new format looks, we are waiting for a statement from UEFA.

I think they will cut it down to 3 cities, where two groups will play all their games. In one of these cities the playoffs will take place as well. Or everything will be played at Baku right from the start

Hehe, you wish Those are american odds and +350 is 4.50 in decimal odds, i.e. it shows how much you can net win for every $100 staked. Favourites' odds are shown with a minus in this "system" and tell you how much you have to stake to win $100.

So a -125 odd indicates you have to stake $125 to win $100. And it makes sense because -125 is 1.80 in decimal odds and if you stake $125 on this 1.80, you will win exactly $100

I always found the american odds very confusing - at least for the favourites - but it's maybe because I am used to decimal odds and grew up with them.