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161  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: October 04, 2022, 04:56:32 PM
FYI, Real Madrid should be able to get full points from their match against Osasuna. In the 79th minute, Real Madrid got a penalty kick, but Karim Benzema as their executor failed to convert the opportunity into a goal for Real Madrid. Regarding El Clasico, I personally have been waiting for this match to take place because this match is an early determinant of whether Real Madrid or Barcelona will lead the race for the La Liga title. But before that, Real Madrid have 3 other matches, against Shakhtar Donetsh (2 matches) and against Getafe.

Who do you think will lead the La Liga title race in mid-league? I thought that it would be a place for Barcelona, ​​but at the end of the season, Real Madrid will get that place.

Real Madrid obviously has a simpler game schedule than Barcelona, which has to play to the max in the Champions League to qualify for the next round of the competition. Plus, the Clasico will be at the Santiago Bernabeu, so we can assume that Real will be the favorite, and Barcelona the outsider, and in general, even a draw will be a good result for Barcelona. But these are general considerations, and no one knows exactly how the game will go, in any case, it’s good that the issue of leadership will be resolved in the Classico.
162  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Is this statiscally possible in a lottery? on: October 04, 2022, 04:49:02 PM
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And this is the explanation of one an OCTA Research on the probability



Its better to have an investigation on this because its possibility that something like this will come out in the future, we never know its a lottery and luck and probability do happen every once in a blue moon

A delusional explanation, if in the last paragraph they didn’t mention that people like to bet on beautiful numbers, then this whole explanation could be safely thrown into the trash. The penultimate paragraph is completely superfluous - I got the impression that this explanation was written only to demonstrate their own mathematical skills.
I wonder, those who still doubt the honesty of this lottery, how do they explain the phenomenal number of winners? As "a simple and imperceptible way for anyone" to steal the winnings among "your people"? Seriously?
163  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2022/23 Season on: October 04, 2022, 04:01:30 PM
Yes, Liverpool have no choice but to win this game; they have no excuse because they are a better team than Rangers. If Liverpool loses, they may end up in the Europa League because Ajax will not want to take any chances with Napoli already leading the group with a perfect 6 points.
Even though we all know how Liverpool has performed this season since the sale of Sadio Mane, and we all know they have good players, there should be no excuses for them to lose today's match, because they deserve to win.

Liverpool will be highly motivated today, and given that the opponent is weaker, I expect a big score of 3-0 or 4-1 or more. Moreover, I cannot say that Liverpool in its current state is so much stronger than the Rangers, I make such a forecast only because of the peculiarities of Liverpool - if they are stronger than the opponent, then they do not stop at 2-0 (reliable score) but try to score as much as they can.
164  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: October 04, 2022, 03:54:46 PM
Google already shows probability of win, I'll show you an example:



There's a match between Barcelona vs Inter, will be tomorrow and Google shows the probability of winning
So it's safe to say Google is running some numbers to define the odds since they don't provide the source of a third party.

I think they did a mistake, like you said, so, according to math and statistics, the final will be Brazil vs France
I know , it's just a prediction, but it helps people make some decision.
I'll try to find more information about google odds.

* But to be fair, most of sites, forums and services have Brazil favorite, and France 2nd or 3rd place.

Yes, it definitely doesn't look like a leak, because even if they think the Brazil-France final is the most likely, there is no point in publishing this prediction since the probability of this event could be 5% or less. Maybe this is the most likely final compared to other combinations of teams, but when compared with the total probability - 95% of other options, then there is no point in making such loud predictions so that later everyone points out the mistake to you.

I wonder if Google keeps statistics on its forecasts? I would like to know how accurate they are.
165  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2022/23 Season on: October 03, 2022, 08:16:10 PM
In last season he was the best player for Manchester United but sadly now with the new coach things are completely different for him even in early days of this season management was ready to allow him for going into any other club these things are giving impression Erik Ten hag is surely not comfortable with him, and he is sticking with his players which are giving him better results even Ronaldo can also give him best results, but he is not using him as he needs to be.

I check now mostly he is coming for one half or many times not coming in any match mean coach trusted other players which are under his radar and having good results for him but here surely if he trusted him and give better time then he can give better results and Manchester United performance also on positive run which is going to be good for both parties.

I think after the game Manchester City - Manchester United where Ronaldo spent the whole game on the bench, he will play a full match with Omonia in the Europa League. Ten Hag is unlikely to consider the Europa League as a priority tournament (especially the group stage), so Ronaldo will play here. At this point in time, this is not the worst option for him, as Manchester United are much stronger than Omonia, so in the game with it, he can improve his statistics by scoring a few goals.
166  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you think this is gambling? [Collectibles & Gambling] on: October 03, 2022, 07:53:55 PM
Good afternoon.
I would like to know your opinion about this: the other night I found a YT channel where a guy bought a box of Yu-Gi-Oh cards, this box was of the first set released back in early 2000's called "Legend of Blue Eyes White Dragon".
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In fact, this is no different from loot boxes, and in many countries they are recognized as a form of gambling. I see no reason why these collectibles/boxes cannot be considered gambling.
Probably, people still doubt whether it is right to consider such collecting mechanics as gambling only because of the strength of traditions. It used to be considered normal to buy such magic boxes with an indeterminate value, but now all this is relegated to gambling.
I wonder when consumer extremism (sometimes it really takes inadequate forms) will make people consider fortune cookies and all that to be gambling? Hahaha.
167  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 433 Winners to split $4,015,156.265 6/55 Grand Lotto Jackpot on: October 02, 2022, 02:41:52 PM
There should be an investigation because people are not buying their explanation.

This is the time that we will know if there's really corruption in PCSO or not.
Providing the ticket would be impossible if this is manipulated, so as a gambler, I like to find out if they are really telling the truth.

Good luck to the officials on answering during the investigation, my guess is there are people here that will be jailed after the investigation.HOPEFULLY!

433 lucky people who guessed 6 numbers really looks like something incredible. But maybe the secret is that it's a "beautiful" sequence (all numbers are divisible by 9) and some people like to bet on beautiful sequences. So when such a sequence falls out, we have many winners. I am sure that if the sequence 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 5,10,15,20,25,30 fell out, then there would also be a lot of winners, perhaps even more than in this case.
168  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Is this statiscally possible in a lottery? on: October 02, 2022, 02:35:14 PM
Of course it's statistically possible. It has the same probability as any other 6 numbers.

Even if you see the result "1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6", that would still be fine. It has the same chances as any other random result.

The thing is that in some people's mind they put together all the "nice" results like the one you posted and the one I shared against any "random" result, like "23, 11, 46, 1, 5, 31", but they all have the same probability to appear.

I completely agree with you, and it's quite funny that people, finding some patterns in the sequence of numbers, think that "beautiful" sequences are somewhat different from "ugly" sequences. From the point of view of mathematics, any sequence of numbers is equally probable.
And by the way, if you look deeply for some pattern, then you can probably find something for any lottery result - some numbers will be a multiple of 3, some 2, sometime there will be a sequence of only prime numbers, sometime even/odd, etc. You can always find something "unique".
169  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: October 02, 2022, 01:54:24 PM
Roma played very well, but I don't think it was better than Inter. And another disappointing moment was the canceled goal by Dzeko. If it wasn't for VAR, we don't know how this match would have ended. I have no doubts that Barcelona will beat Inter in the next Champions League match. Of all the statistics of face-to-face meetings between these clubs, Inter have won only twice - in 2010 and 1970.

But Roma won the game, so it was better than Inter yesterday. What's the point of arguing what "would be if" if we never find out?
As for the game Inter - Barcelona, I think it makes sense to bet on Inter. It may be a strange thought, but I think that Inter will not allow themselves to fail in Serie A and the Champions League at the same time. A home loss would put an end to their chances of making it to the playoffs.
170  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +85728 units on: October 02, 2022, 01:47:05 PM
What algorithm do you use to add bets to this thread? During the Nations League games, I always thought that such a tournament with unmotivated teams where the favorites often lose should be good for you, but I did not see the betting reports.

By the way, it seems to me that the odds of Manchester United winning are underestimated. Manchester United are showing a game similar to last season, and Manchester City have clearly become stronger with the acquisition of Haaland. But bookmakers believe that Manchester City has remained at its level and Manchester United has strengthened.

Very simple. If I think it has value. I know that's a very vague explanation, but for Nations League, I actually didn't really know what the value was, friendlies (yes, I don't care, it's a friendly) especially I see no value unless the odds are extremely high for a good team.

I made pretty good money in NL, on my first 3 bets, but they were on an acca on all favourites, and one big upset on Azerbaijan. But it was actually exact value to me (9/1) because they won 1 in last 9 games...!

I got over 9/1 for United too, I'm okay with that, made it a bit bigger with Liverpool leg... and we're already down 2 goals whoops

Yes, this is a vague explanation - in theory, whenever we bet we think it's value. Otherwise, what's the point of betting if we don't think it's profitable. But apparently you can say that you add your picks to this thread if you think they have much higher than average value.
Liverpool have lost points again and it really looks like this is a pattern and not a "temporary" difficulty.
171  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: October 01, 2022, 05:14:02 PM
I doubt that anyone will bother to check the pairs of tourists who, although for the sake of formalities, entered the country separately, but walk and sleep together. I know about the conservative nature of this country, but we all understand that any ideology has a huge amount of hypocrisy - if we turn to religion, then all these "entertainment" games/competitions are not encouraged by the radicals. But nevertheless, Qatar wants to hold this tournament and wants to attract tourists. I am sure that tourists informally will behave very freely during the World Cup, although formal restrictions will allegedly take place.
I think need respect about culture in Qatar and not make the same with other countries allowed with alcoholic and some thing bad based on culture in Qatar. I don't sure this reason seem controversy and need to debate, based on religion in some countries we need respect and did which one allowed and left with some rule not allowed in Qatar. Simple I see what rule have applicated by Qatar government and I think this time World Cup begin more luxurious than held in other country before. I don't see reason about Qatar try to make difficult for tourist in this World Cup because they have make all easy if each other side understood about rule and culture there.

On the one hand, I completely agree with you that a foreign culture must be respected (since they are in their own country and do not impose it on you). But on the other hand, this is a controversial issue, since football has its own culture and football is international, which means that part of the global culture (which directly contradicts the culture of Qatar) is inseparable from football.
In general, I do not understand why Qatar was so eager to get the right to host the World Cup in the presence of such contradictions.
Why didn't they think of buying from Germany the right to host the annual Oktoberfest and ban beer because of their internal rules? That would be comparable logic.
172  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Investing and the casino business. on: October 01, 2022, 05:05:07 PM
Great chart, thanks! I wrote about this right on the first page without even checking the charts of stock quotes - casinos have long become a traditional business and if the entire market falls, then their shares also fall. Now the whole market is in recession and it is more profitable to hold cash than stocks (or even short, but this is very dangerous since on average the market is always going up and you have to guess a good short point). Maybe after the end of the crisis it will be profitable to buy shares that are at the bottom.

It will take long before the crisis will end, however. and by the time it's almost over that we can see improvements, the stocks may probably be bought and accumulated by the wealthy investors wanting to dominate the industry.

Even when the stocks are crashing, the price still is very unaffordable for small investors. More people will prefer to store food in times of crisis than spend to get 100 MGM or WYNN stocks.

The duration of the crisis will depend on the measures taken - maybe the governments will finally decide to "even out" everything with the help of inflation. And then, as a result of money printing, in a couple of years, all markets will formally come out of the crisis. And just in this scenario, it will be very unprofitable to keep the cash, and the worst stock will show growth.
But as you rightly noted, if we are talking about money "for food", then there is no difference where to invest it and how to store it - this is too little capital to feel the profit from investing it.
173  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling, tourism and legal gambling age for gamblers around the world. on: October 01, 2022, 04:59:40 PM
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The South Korean law is weird. They won't allow their people to gamble but foreigners can gamble. That's fine. But why won't they allow their people to gamble outside their country? And how would they know if their citizens were gambling or not?

This is indeed a strange and totalitarian law. But it seems to me that it is rather somehow connected with taxes than with the interest of the state to monitor its citizens abroad. Maybe this is against money laundering through "tourism" and then returning to the country with dirty money and the excuse "I won it at the casino"? This option seems logical to me, but I would love to hear from the Koreans themselves about this.
174  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: October 01, 2022, 04:17:05 PM
Probably out of fuel.
Cars need to have a certain amount of fuel at the end of the qualify for tests.

If they can't have the amount needed they will have a huge penalty.

There is still no official confirmation, but everyone is leaning towards this version. But in fact, this is unlikely to prevent Verstappen from winning again and, given the next start from the depths of the peloton, this will be another humiliation for all other teams. Although the bookmakers do not consider him a favorite now, his odds are not much different from those of Leclerc:

Leclerc, Charles - 2.35

Verstappen, Max - 3.00

Hamilton, Lewis - 4.00

Perez, Sergio - 10.90

Sainz Jr., Carlos - 17.00
175  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Finding value bets on: October 01, 2022, 04:05:43 PM
In the early days of online bookmakers, there were spots where value bets could be found, especially in minority sports, but bookmakers became aware of them and corrected their mistakes. There are still people who claim to make money in the long run but it is extremely difficult.

If you use the local bookmakers of my country, then there are a lot of opportunities to find an arbitrage bet. Local bookmakers often give generous odds. The problem is that just because you win does not mean that you can get your winnings - they are all scammers (or very close to them) and the stories about how they ban players or refuse to pay out money are endless.
Therefore, many naive betters who try arbitrage bets between local bookmakers and the global market then realize that making money here is not at all as easy as they thought.
176  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: September 30, 2022, 05:21:16 PM
But in the news they wrote that even for ordinary tourists the rules will be soft and they will be able to drink beer. Similarly, girls - all these restrictions concern the Qataris themselves rather than tourists, and even more so football players. If I remember correctly, one of the players is openly gay and he criticized Qatar for homophobic laws, but it is obvious that no one will detain him there or prosecute him for homosexuality. All these restrictions are rather far-fetched and the players will not notice them. As for the rest of the conditions, they are accustomed to a change of scenery and, in general, all the players will be on an equal footing - Europeans, Americans, Africans and Asians.

They announced that beer will be allowed in the stadiums, just before the start of the match. Alcoholic beverages and beer will not be available anywhere else. Unmarried couples and LGBTs are banned irrespective of the nationality. So I don't know how much change has been made for the world cup. Let's not forget the fact that Qatar is one of the more conservative countries in the GCC region, along with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Rules are stricter when compared to more liberal neighbors, such as Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

I doubt that anyone will bother to check the pairs of tourists who, although for the sake of formalities, entered the country separately, but walk and sleep together. I know about the conservative nature of this country, but we all understand that any ideology has a huge amount of hypocrisy - if we turn to religion, then all these "entertainment" games/competitions are not encouraged by the radicals. But nevertheless, Qatar wants to hold this tournament and wants to attract tourists. I am sure that tourists informally will behave very freely during the World Cup, although formal restrictions will allegedly take place.
177  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Investing and the casino business. on: September 30, 2022, 05:14:09 PM
It may be profitable but it's not a guarantee investing in casinos may look appealing but you need to do diligent research, checking the information on the internet and on how these casinos perform in the market just saw this now, investing in casinos is like gambling you need to invest what you can afford to lose, you need financial advice from a stockbroker and financial advisor although investing in the Cryptocurrency market is more volatile than casino investing



Great chart, thanks! I wrote about this right on the first page without even checking the charts of stock quotes - casinos have long become a traditional business and if the entire market falls, then their shares also fall. Now the whole market is in recession and it is more profitable to hold cash than stocks (or even short, but this is very dangerous since on average the market is always going up and you have to guess a good short point). Maybe after the end of the crisis it will be profitable to buy shares that are at the bottom.
178  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: "The Lower-Risk Gambling Guidelines" Is this a joke? on: September 30, 2022, 04:50:24 PM
Yes, that is what is always done trying to lead what we call a healthy life, and it is easy to heal in this way, above all by sleeping well, because3 sometimes it is like they say where I live, "Living is in the dromir " So these are things that should be given, also one way is to share with the family, go out, those who have the beach nearby is also a very good way to clear the mind, go out and walk in the mountains, see that the environment sometimes can offer you other options to move forward, sometimes a good clean oxygen is very good, really clean air is the best of all therapies that may exist and that any psychologist.

Good point of view! I am grateful to God that I live in a not too big city near the sea and have the opportunity to walk along the coast without wasting much time, distracting from ordinary life and putting my thoughts in order. But not everyone is so lucky and I think with regret about the residents of big cities who spend a lot of time on the way to work and back and do not have the opportunity to escape from this industrial hell on weekdays. Undoubtedly, they accumulate stress and one way or another become subject to either alcohol addiction, or gambling or some other - largely due to the conditions of life.
179  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling, tourism and legal gambling age for gamblers around the world. on: September 30, 2022, 04:39:41 PM
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An interesting question is, If the younger person wins the lottery from the gifted ticket, will the state agree too pay them or wait till they come of legal age??
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From a legal point of view, this is a simple question. The law separates two activities: gambling and income generation. Since the ticket was gifted, there was no violation of the law. So the lucky person is left to receive his prize and pay taxes (if any - I heard in different states this is regulated in different ways).
A more confusing case would be if a minor illegally purchased lottery tickets and won the top prize. Here, most likely, we would see an interesting struggle of lawyers.
180  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +85728 units on: September 30, 2022, 04:16:15 PM
^ Tough luck huh Trofo. Damned Bayern, and I actually won a bet against them vs Augsburg, which I of course didn't put here.

Sorry, Nations League was never going to be on this list after previous failures, although funnily enough I made way more profit on 3 bets than in entire new league season so far. Strange? That's what the gods of fortune do to you...
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What algorithm do you use to add bets to this thread? During the Nations League games, I always thought that such a tournament with unmotivated teams where the favorites often lose should be good for you, but I did not see the betting reports.

By the way, it seems to me that the odds of Manchester United winning are underestimated. Manchester United are showing a game similar to last season, and Manchester City have clearly become stronger with the acquisition of Haaland. But bookmakers believe that Manchester City has remained at its level and Manchester United has strengthened.
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