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161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2018, 02:49:21 PM
Bearish rectangle?

I suck at these things. Can I phone a friend?

Sure, as long as it's not Bill Gates or Warren Buffett or CNBC. Or Roger Ver. Or...
162  Economy / Speculation / Bull Pennant on the Weeklies Nearing Close on: May 23, 2018, 02:37:11 PM
During times like these, it helps to take the long view.

Let's play the matching game...



Weekly candles, 50/200 Daily MA
Volume, RSI, MACD
163  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2018, 02:31:43 PM
During times like these, it helps to take the long view.

Let's play the matching game...



Weekly candles, 50/200 Daily MA
Volume, RSI, MACD
164  Economy / Speculation / Re: 5-Weeks of Green Candlesticks Bullish AF on: May 19, 2018, 05:28:35 AM
Looking at the weeklies going all the way back to 2013, seeing 5 consecutive green candles outside of a bull run is pretty rare.

In fact, they are non-existent during the 2014 bear market (if you don't count consecutive dojis).


There was 6 consecutive green candles in May 2014. So almost identical time after the ATH as now. From your chart it is seen we might see Bitcoin price decrease until next year. And have so so steady 2019 and Bitcoin price growth in 2020 again.   Well that was always the most pessimistic plan.

Like I said, I don’t count consecutive dojis. Those first three candles are practically flat. But sure. It’s possible, but hopefully improbable.  

To me, that period looks like the bull trap to $11k we had a couple months ago, only accelerated.
165  Economy / Speculation / Re: 5-Weeks of Green Candlesticks Bullish AF on: May 18, 2018, 08:00:54 PM

Im not saying there are high possibilities of seeing these low prices... but the possibilities are there, im just applying technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is higher on the hierarchy for me than any TA, so any news or possitive developments could make the price go up against any TA predictions.

Why I saw it's realistic we could see lower prices, because we have a mixture of 2 things:

1) A bunch of idiots holding Bitcoin whose don't know what Bitcoin is and are just waiting for it to go higher to dump again for fiat, and when it doesn't they get nervous and get shaky.
2) Whales and generally TPBT understands they can't Bitcoin, only become a bigger player in it: so it's on their incentive to see lower prices before they start going all in and we go to $100k-$1million during the next decade. They want to enter in big and they will look for the perfect buy, which may be lower. Of course, the lowest point may have been $5900 already. Or they may have been buying for years, who knows.


Agreed.

Although the tree has been shaken pretty hard these last months... any idiots still holding are pretty tenacious. We aren't seeing high volume panic spikes anymore, but more round bottomed highs and lows. If there are a lot of bag-holders just waiting to get out, I think they'll show up more in the cup handles.

For the most part, I think whales/institutions either OTC or DCA into the market to avoid slippage. They are in for the long game, so perfect market timing is not so important. Whales can be a mixed bag, though.. some are just in for the lulz. Like Kobayashi.

Fundamental news takes a while to soak in. Segwit adoption, transaction batching, lightning nodes, institutional offerings are all on the rise but have a delayed effect on price, much like the halvening. FUD and TA tend to invoke instantaneous response, but too much of the same old and people become numb to it, and before you know it, 5 weeks of green.

166  Economy / Speculation / Re: 5-Weeks of Green Candlesticks Bullish AF on: May 18, 2018, 07:30:50 PM

Nice analysis.
Just a small correction. It was the early 2013 bubble top and late 2013 bubble top. Not 2014!
Furthermore it should also be mentioned that from those 4 cases which you have highlighted in the cart, with 5 green weeks in a row, 3 of them have fully retraced afterwards! That's a fact as well.
So what if we retrace a 100% here also? Still bullish af???

I mean when you speak about being bullish in a timeframe of 1-2 years, that's fine. But short to mid term is really questionable at the moment imo.
And fractals or vents doesn't always work out. Consensus 2018 is a proof for that.

Oops, thanks for the correction.

Even if we bounce off $6500 a couple more times, I still think this is bullish for the 6 mos to 1 yr time frame. Cyclic volatility attracts speculators, building up more and more volume until finally resistances are broken. It also attracts more prudent newcomers, hodlers, and hopefully, institutions at some point, once they feel confident a floor has been established.

If the floor breaks, well then all bets are off.

Much of the rise from prior Consensus meetings has been seen weeks to months later:



167  Economy / Speculation / Re: 5-Weeks of Green Candlesticks Bullish AF on: May 18, 2018, 04:12:41 AM
My next 2 big drops would be around $4500, then the very last, lowest and therefore ideal entry point to go all in, $1600, for the global, very long term uptrend. For now we've broken $8000. Let's hope we close this week with a red to get another streak of greens..

Wowee, not saying it’s impossible, but in the last 5 years, the price has never dropped that significantly after a 5-week green run. A few false starts back to baseline, sure, but ultimately they’ve led right back into a bull market.

Yeah yeah past performance no guarantee, but call me an optimist. I imagine it would take some pretty terrible FUD to knock another 50-80% off these prices. Rat poison and baby brains cubed.
168  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2018, 02:43:24 AM

Looking at the weeklies going all the way back to 2013, seeing 5 consecutive green candles outside of a bull run is pretty rare.

In fact, they are non-existent during the 2014 bear market (if you don't count consecutive dojis).



It was only during the 2015 recovery/accumulation phase, when price and volume finally bottomed out, that 5-week greens reappeared.
Volatility spiked +/-30% in waves. Volume remained low. In hindsight, this proved to be an extremely lucrative accumulation period.

It took 7 months after the Mid 2014 Bubble top before the start of a 5 week rise again.
It took 14 months after the Late 2014 Bubble top, before the start of a 5 week rise again.
It was with the third 5-week rise, accompanied by a sharp rise in volume, that the great Bull Run of 2015-2017 began.

It has only been 4-5 months since the 2017 Bubble pop before the start of our first 5 week rise.

Methinks this is bullish AF.
169  Economy / Speculation / 5-Weeks of Green Candlesticks Bullish AF on: May 18, 2018, 02:41:30 AM
Looking at the weeklies going all the way back to 2013, seeing 5 consecutive green candles outside of a bull run is pretty rare.

In fact, they are non-existent during the 2014 bear market (if you don't count consecutive dojis).



It was only during the 2015 recovery/accumulation phase, when price and volume finally bottomed out, that 5-week greens reappeared.
Volatility spiked +/-30% in waves. Volume remained low. In hindsight, this proved to be an extremely lucrative accumulation period.

It took 7 months after the Mid 2013 Bubble top before the start of a 5 week rise again.
It took 14 months after the Late 2013 Bubble top, before the start of a 5 week rise again.
It was with the third 5-week rise, accompanied by a sharp rise in volume, that the great Bull Run of 2015-2017 began.

It has only been 4-5 months since the 2017 Bubble pop before the start of our first 5 week rise.

Methinks this is bullish AF.

edit: fixed year
170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2018, 12:44:04 PM
Usually there is a rally around the time of this event: https://www.coindesk.com/events/consensus-2018/

Wonder if it will be the same this year.
Before, during or after?
All of the above.

Although prior years never had the futures markets grab 'em by the mee-ow...

Why bitcoin could rally more than 70% in the coming week, Fundstrat’s Lee says:

171  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 07, 2018, 02:37:55 PM
Quote from: Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman

“Suppose you could make a lot of money trading freshly harvested baby brains. Would you do it? To me bitcoin is almost as bad.”


Anything else, Charlie?

Quote

“I regard the whole thing as a combination of dementia and immorality. I think the people pushing it are a disgrace. There ought to be some things that are beneath you, that you just don’t do, and this is one.”


This, coming from a company profiting off of sugar water and car accidents.
172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2018, 03:22:47 PM
The psychological barrier at 10k/200EMA is causing the popular alt ratios to stretch...

When that resistance is broken, will they rebound and propel Bitcoin even higher?

HODL on to your feathers!

173  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2018, 04:43:52 AM
174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Russia - the internet belongs to the Americans, but blockchain will belong to us on: April 30, 2018, 07:19:55 PM
“Look, the internet belongs to the Americans — but blockchain will belong to us,”'

175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2018, 02:36:51 PM

These last couple weeks, I took a gamble.

My wife and I started gifting small amounts of bitcoin to a large number of friends and family. Rainy day fund, college fund, shits and giggles fund, whatever they wanted to call it. Only stipulation was not to sell until after mid 2021, a year after the halvening.

I'm watching the network effect in action. Days like today certainly got their attention. How many will end up adding to their positions, I wonder?

Adoption doesn't just happen. Some people need a little nudge.

Luckily, my gamble paid off in the correct direction. So far.  Cool
176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2018, 12:25:38 PM


Analysts, institutions, and developers remain incredibly bullish.

Noob speculators, butt-hurt weak hands, and overextended taxpayers who dove head first into the kiddie pool are hemorrhaging bearishness.

OG HODLers won't sell but won't buy either.

Who will make the first move?


Quote from: Game Theory
A Mexican Standoff is a three person gun duel. According to standard game theory, the first person to shoot is most likely to lose. The person they shoot at is also likely to lose. The third person has the best chance of winning.

Bulls shot first. Bears shooting back.

HODLers still standing.

Bitcoin. The drama never ends. Grin
177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mexican Standoff on: April 12, 2018, 12:24:35 PM


Analysts, institutions, and developers remain incredibly bullish.

Noob speculators, butt-hurt weak hands, and overextended taxpayers who dove head first into the kiddie pool are hemorrhaging bearishness.

OG HODLers won't sell but won't buy either.

Who will make the first move?


Quote from: Game Theory
A Mexican Standoff is a three person gun duel. According to standard game theory, the first person to shoot is most likely to lose. The person they shoot at is also likely to lose. The third person has the best chance of winning.

Bulls shot first. Bears shooting back.

HODLers still standing.

Bitcoin. The drama never ends. Grin
178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2018, 03:48:26 PM


Analysts, institutions, and developers remain incredibly bullish.

Noob speculators, butt-hurt weak hands, and overextended taxpayers who dove head first into the kiddie pool are hemorrhaging bearishness.

OG HODLers won't sell but won't buy either.

Who will make the first move?

Soros: Bitcoin is a bubble, no wait...BTFD, yo:
George Soros Prepares to Trade Cryptocurrencies

Rockefellers extend middle finger to Soros:
First Soros, Now Rockefellers Move into Cryptocurrency

Futures markets hungry for MOAR:
Cboe urges U.S. regulators to move forward with bitcoin ETFs

Japanese Firm paying salaries in crypto (+10% bonus):
Are Bitcoin Salaries the Future? This Japanese Internet Company Thinks So

Established, Regulated Online Brokerage buys exchange:
Japanese Cryptocurrency Exchange Coincheck Accepts Monex Takeover Bid

Mobile Payment Firm buys exchange:
Circle CEO Allaire on Bitcoin, Blockchain & the Bank of the Future

Twitter CEO: Bitcoin will be the world's sole currency:
Lightning Labs just raised millions from Jack Dorsey and others to supercharge blockchain transactions

Elizabeth Stark: It's about Bitcoin, Stupid:
Lightning Labs CEO: We are back to a 'bitcoin, not blockchain' world

Fundstrat Analyst Tom Lee: BTFD:
The Bitcoin Misery Index, BMI, Is Flashing A Buy Signal

Analyst Ronnie Moas 2018 Target: $28,000
Ronnie Moas Thinks $300,000 Is a Realistic Bitcoin Price Target

Analyst Trace Mayer 2018 Target: $115,000
TRACE MAYER: BITCOIN MAY HIT ‘SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED’ $115K IN 2018

Analyst Max Keiser: Bitcoin to $100,000:
'Bitcoin is a gift from God to help humanity sort out mess it has made with its money'

Web Bot Founder: New apps and fresh adopters to propel Bitcoin to $60,000 in 2018:
Clif High and John McAfee drop Bitcoin Price Predictions that may shock you

John McAfee: BTFD or I'll eat a dick!:
$1mn by 2020: John McAfee will still ‘eat his own d*ck’ if he’s wrong about Bitcoin

Meanwhile, on Bitcointalk Speculation Forums:
fud Fud FUD Fud fud
DOOM doom doom doom DOOM DOOM DOOM


Bitcoin Price Action:

179  Economy / Speculation / Mexican Standoff on: April 11, 2018, 03:42:07 PM


Analysts, institutions, and developers remain incredibly bullish.

Noob speculators, butt-hurt weak hands, and overextended taxpayers who dove head first into the kiddie pool are hemorrhaging bearishness.

OG HODLers won't sell but won't buy either.

Who will make the first move?

Soros: Bitcoin is a bubble, no wait...BTFD, yo:
George Soros Prepares to Trade Cryptocurrencies

Rockefellers extend middle finger to Soros:
First Soros, Now Rockefellers Move into Cryptocurrency

Futures markets hungry for MOAR:
Cboe urges U.S. regulators to move forward with bitcoin ETFs

Japanese Firm paying salaries in crypto (+10% bonus):
Are Bitcoin Salaries the Future? This Japanese Internet Company Thinks So

Established, Regulated Online Brokerage buys exchange:
Japanese Cryptocurrency Exchange Coincheck Accepts Monex Takeover Bid

Mobile Payment Firm buys exchange:
Circle CEO Allaire on Bitcoin, Blockchain & the Bank of the Future

Twitter CEO: Bitcoin will be the world's sole currency:
Lightning Labs just raised millions from Jack Dorsey and others to supercharge blockchain transactions

Elizabeth Stark: It's about Bitcoin, Stupid:
Lightning Labs CEO: We are back to a 'bitcoin, not blockchain' world

Fundstrat Analyst Tom Lee: BTFD:
The Bitcoin Misery Index, BMI, Is Flashing A Buy Signal

Analyst Ronnie Moas 2018 Target: $28,000
Ronnie Moas Thinks $300,000 Is a Realistic Bitcoin Price Target

Analyst Trace Mayer 2018 Target: $115,000
TRACE MAYER: BITCOIN MAY HIT ‘SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED’ $115K IN 2018

Analyst Max Keiser: Bitcoin to $100,000:
'Bitcoin is a gift from God to help humanity sort out mess it has made with its money'

Web Bot Founder: New apps and fresh adopters to propel Bitcoin to $60,000 in 2018:
Clif High and John McAfee drop Bitcoin Price Predictions that may shock you

John McAfee: BTFD or I'll eat a dick!:
$1mn by 2020: John McAfee will still ‘eat his own d*ck’ if he’s wrong about Bitcoin

Meanwhile, on Bitcointalk Speculation Forums:
fud Fud FUD Fud fud
DOOM doom doom doom DOOM DOOM DOOM


Bitcoin Price Action:

180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2018, 03:09:08 PM
Psychedelics in general just amplify what is already going on inside you.
Hence if you're having a hard time with life, then that will be amplified to extreme and potentially life-like levels with all your insecurities and problems taking "real" shapes depending on the dosage that you've ingested.

As horrible as the experience might be, it can actually, in select cases, be good for the person as it forces them to confront their problems.

So far I didn't have anything anywhere near as extreme as the horror stories that I've read on the internet though, and I can't imagine myself ever having any of those experiences either.
But I've also made it a point to remember what I did prior to the experience, which takes off the edge. I'm also quite curious as to what is going to happen during the moment of death, since it's quite obviously just a fairly tale that humans tell themselves for the lulz. And then, with a high enough dosage you lose control anyways and at that point it doesn't really matter what happens since you just fully dissolve in what is happening (if anything at all).

P.S. Is there a correlation between recreational experimentation with substances and the openness to Bitcorns, or are those substances just more wide spread these days due to pop media references and documentaries?

It's almost impossible to predict where people's demon's might take them. I watched a guy leap through a (closed) window, and then proceed to gnaw a guy's thumb off who was trying to help him. Dude was an experienced psychonaut too, but ayahuasca delves deeper than most.

At the same time, my spinal column lit like a rocket and propelled me straight into god's eye. A few millennia and hundreds of death/rebirth cycles later, I woke up. Like WOKE woke.

Bitcorn was a no-brainer "risk" after that! What's the worst that can happen?  Grin

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