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161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2014, 06:29:03 PM
Why do you guys worry so much?

162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2014, 06:27:41 PM
today we had 3 major events

macd 1w crossing
ebay interview
ecb negative rates

and btc price still goes down ? i expected 700+ easy for today.

what else do we need...

The MACD did not cross



april's bubble:



Okay?
163  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2014, 06:22:39 PM
today we had 3 major events

macd 1w crossing
ebay interview
ecb negative rates

and btc price still goes down ? i expected 700+ easy for today.

what else do we need...

The MACD did not cross

164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Beta version of new Bitcoin price prediction model! on: June 05, 2014, 05:28:18 AM
to be honest you need to show your method, the secret if you have one such as special setup, or secret number you can keep but ... it's like have a scientific approach to data analysis ...

like professor David Aronson says on
Scientific Approaches to Algorithmic Trading, Part 1 of 4
http://youtu.be/AgOxoMMillM?t=4m15s  

simulate + backtest + cross validation

if you just says that the future price is "X" because is based on neural network simulations sounds very vague to me ... I used to play a lite bit with Jeff Heaton's Encog framework .. and boy ... so much ways to simulate something within neural networks ...

of course in the end of the day in a imperfect information game ... we need some faith ... but to sell a product for financial market .... is better backup you product with a good maths and strong hypotheses  ..

yes ... but .... maybe .... his .... neural ... network ... is .... in ... too ... early ... of ... a ... stage ... to ... show ... off
165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: June 05, 2014, 02:01:07 AM

That is some insane resistance and support
166  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: June 04, 2014, 07:18:05 PM

Dat supportttt
167  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2014-06-04 Crash on: June 04, 2014, 06:54:06 PM

Bitcoin is a project created by the NSA

Very possibly true.  Or some other govt agency, or combination of agencies.

Quote
...in order to take money from the crazy anti-government libertarian movement, by getting them to invest all of their money into the project and then pulling the plug.

Aaaaaand now you're talking nonsense.   Didn't even make it through 1 full sentence.  What motivation would they have for that stupidity?   How about the first fully trackable financial system?  Isnt that a wee bit more feasible?  Or maybe some elites got sick of bailing out banks and they actually created this thing to accomplish that.  There are a thousand possible reasons why even a government might invent Bitcoin.  And its no coincidence to me that the US Govt - whom we all expected to ban bitcoin, has welcomed it with open arms.  Think about that a little bit.  Not to mention Dorian working on secret govt projects ...

If you're going to have conspiracy theories - use viable feasible logic.  Its way more fun Smiley

-B-

No it's not.
168  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2014, 05:37:10 PM
Oh well so price will go down again cuz of these news that we don't even know if they are real?

It'll be stable. We just don't have the bid power to break 680.
169  Economy / Speculation / Re: Beta version of new Bitcoin price prediction model! on: June 04, 2014, 04:34:27 PM
You should honestly remove the 5-20 day ones, they just mislead noobs.

Is your 24 hour one updating in real time? I imagine it would be more effective if it corrected mistakes on the spot.

http://puu.sh/9eM83/b90ecc457d.png

As you can see above there is an increasing disparity between prediction and actuality, but no correction or timing adjustment. However, you did more or less see that recent drop coming, very inspiring.

I think I want to keep those ones still because they are interesting and a lot of people were asking me for longer term predictions when the 20 day one didn't exist. However, I am definitely going to keep trying to improve them.

And yeah, I'm hoping to solve the issue of it taking a bit of time to respond to changes with the new predictor. That's why I'm having it update every 5 minutes. I just uploaded a new neural network for the beta so we'll see how that one works.

I'll be keeping an eye on it.
170  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2014-06-04 Crash on: June 04, 2014, 04:26:29 PM
Was there any fundamental reason why Bitcoin crashed today from $680 to $620-630?

Bitcoin is a project created by the NSA in order to take money from the crazy anti-government libertarian movement, by getting them to invest all of their money into the project and then pulling the plug.

The problem is those wacko libertarians then invested not just their money but also their time building more and more services on top of bitcoin and popularizing it into a larger movement. Seriously who builds things anymore? No one in the government foresaw that coming.

Now the NSA is desperately trying to shut bitcoin down, but too many people are supporting the network and more and more people keep viewing every price drop as a buying opportunity, so their attacks are less and less impactful.


At least that is my theory for today's crash, it is as good as anyone else's theory and just as provable as far as I can tell.

You are an idiot.

I wouldnt agree or disagree with everything he says. Some may have some truth, while some parts might be a little to out there. Who knows what the truth is until it unfolds.

No, get out.
171  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2014-06-04 Crash on: June 04, 2014, 04:12:11 PM
Was there any fundamental reason why Bitcoin crashed today from $680 to $620-630?

Bitcoin is a project created by the NSA in order to take money from the crazy anti-government libertarian movement, by getting them to invest all of their money into the project and then pulling the plug.

The problem is those wacko libertarians then invested not just their money but also their time building more and more services on top of bitcoin and popularizing it into a larger movement. Seriously who builds things anymore? No one in the government foresaw that coming.

Now the NSA is desperately trying to shut bitcoin down, but too many people are supporting the network and more and more people keep viewing every price drop as a buying opportunity, so their attacks are less and less impactful.


At least that is my theory for today's crash, it is as good as anyone else's theory and just as provable as far as I can tell.

You are an idiot.
172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Beta version of new Bitcoin price prediction model! on: June 04, 2014, 03:35:48 PM
Got a neural network to tell folks which neural network they should follow at any particular moment?  Looks like they give conflicting calls.


The 24 hour one - it has the lowest average error. The 20 day one is unreliable, as it says above the chart. The 5 day one does OKAY but it's not as good (as is reflected in the higher average error)

You should honestly remove the 5-20 day ones, they just mislead noobs.

Is your 24 hour one updating in real time? I imagine it would be more effective if it corrected mistakes on the spot.

http://puu.sh/9eM83/b90ecc457d.png

As you can see above there is an increasing disparity between prediction and actuality, but no correction or timing adjustment. However, you did more or less see that recent drop coming, very inspiring.
173  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2014, 01:34:22 AM
RIP Bubble
174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2014, 12:17:59 AM
market 2 stable
175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are the exchanges detrimental to the value of bitcoin? on: June 03, 2014, 11:26:08 PM
Huobi trading bots, gox debacles, and other bs has altered the price numerous times. The point of bitcoin was to be peer to peer.

Yes, many may bring up the point that exchanges are necessary (how to get bitcoins etc), but is there a better option that can make us truly peer to peer (so that the price can steadily and healthily grow without manipulation or willies, or goxxy etc)

https://localbitcoins.com/
176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 01:49:25 PM
*finger on the trigger*

should i do it? should i buy 10K BTC all at once?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E781QE7ZQK8
177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 05:12:14 AM
178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 05:08:57 AM


BF
179  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 04:35:47 AM
Rocket time
180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 04:26:21 AM
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