My investment philosophy as regards XMR is quite simple:

- walls always lie
- indicators are meaningless
- volume is likely correct
- only thing that really matters is how many XMR you get to buy, and (secondary) how much you paid for them.

I have no reason to "hope" that it would go up or down. It is hard to trade profitably if you let that affect your decisions.

About 6 people have 50,000 XMR or more (after all, 50,000 XMR is 1.5% of all the XMR that exists cf. similar % of bitcoins would be BTC200,000, hardly an insignificant amount as a bid support or size of dump  ). Some of these people ARE dumpers, however, so it is fully plausible that occasionally one person would quickly unleash such an amount.

I am still waiting for your fact-based 12-line treatise, because your only meager content in the last post was easily proven to be absolutely wrong. I hope I am not being mean.

Anyone have any reason to trust Hitbtc with money?
Poloniex is great, busoni already suffered a hack and reimbursed everyone. And busoni seems to be making a lot of money so it's not worth scamming anyone.

Not so sure about Hitbtc, but I really need another place to trade on sometimes.

are you also considering hitbtc? it has over 60% of poloniex volume

Whatever. Hopefully others found my post more insightful than this newbie..

No, that was mean 

Rephrase: Please distill some of your knowledge on the topic in 12 lines for others to read! 

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

We have made a quadruple bottom in 394-397 range, after bouncing once from 400 first, and very recently from 401 also.

The bottoming process seems quite complete to me. Therefore I dare to predict that the next move is up, towards some of the various fibonacci levels between 510->394->X.

It is impossible to say now if the monthly high was just made in 510, or if this was a more-vicious-than-normal battle in preparation for taking down 580. My understanding is that 510 is currently the zone to watch. Should we blast through, the battle of 580 is actually won already. Most resistance will be in 450-480 area.

That's what I see! 490 is likely and 500 will be heavy resistance

No. The small bullish one on the right. I estimate we get a small bounce back to 490 - 500.

didn't you get the memo? we may never see sub 500 prices ^TM

 

This is a close-up of the recent action. It is easy to see 3 waves down since the (iv). This means that I am expecting one more down to find a somewhat significant bottom. This is if it's not THE bottom. Earlier, I thought a triangle was tracing out for iv, but sellers on Stamp had different ideas and made lower lows within the iv. Since the iv is nearly complete, I didn't bother adding a target for it, and the target for the final wave down is around $424 and change.



This is the chart with the three main outcomes that I outlined in the last update. Nothing has changed, but I just want keep everyone up to speed.

These are my thoughts also about the case of lucs recent post. But I disagree on one thing, It's rocket scientist, not rocker.

Thanks! I'm glad you are enjoying the thread

I do try to keep it informational and not just a chart with no explanation. I want people to know how I came to the conclusions that I did/do. That's why I explain a bit of the underlying psychology that causes certain movements to happen... That it's not just a random walk! Maybe they can eventually start applying the technique to their own charting.

Says h3speros. 

Good kings all around. Luc has been prescient several times before and we should give him props for that.

In addition, it doesn't take a rocker scientist to suggest stocks are way overbought. And it's entirely possible that if the stock market goes down I a big way that bitcoin could too - although there is no real historical precedent got this.

However, we also should consider, reading over Lucs most recent posts, that there is a certain amount of regional stress he is currently over involving where he resides. This may be causing him to have a less than well rounded and objective view of the current world financial markets.

It seems like doom and bloomers have been around forever and they, for several reasons, will always be.