Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

The British pound has become the world's worst performing currency, where will it be at the end of 2016?

Following the referendum result, the British pound has become the world's worst performing currency, falling even behind the Argentinian peso. At the same time, it is confirmed that either Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom will be Britain's next Prime Minister so could this help pound to recover, or will it go way more down by the end of the year?

Next UK Prime Minister, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-uk-prime-minister-1/.

Some think that British pound will go so down that it could hit history-making dollar parity by end of 2016. Though, more analysts predict $1.20-$1.30 could hold for sterling this year. Yesterday it closed at $1.29, after being at $1.49 on June 23, before the referendum results came in.

"While GBP has already seen steep declines across the board we think it remains vulnerable to a prolonged decline even from these levels. Our current forecast profile sees GBPUSD falling to $1.20 by the end of this year ($1.25 by end-Q3)," says Ned Rumpeltin at TD Securities.

GBP vs USD: Value of Pound at year end, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/gbp-vs-usd-value-of-pound-at-year-end/.

So, where do you think pound value will stop at the end of the year? Fairlay market, like most analysts, gives the biggest chances that on December 31 it will be in range between $1.21 to $1.40, but range of $1.01 to $1.20 is also likely to happen. Thus, you can find great odds if you think it could go to $1.00 or Under, or recover Over $1.40.

RealClearPolitics polling: Trump lowered it under 5.0, but Hillary is back to 5.0 lead. What will happen next?

After Hillary Clinton increased her lead in RealClearPolitics polling to 6.8 ten days ago, Trump and his campaign managed to lower it under 5.0 in the last week, but today Hilary closed polling at 5.0 lead. So, what will happen next?

In the focus today, and probably following days, is the news that FBI Director James Comey confirmed that some of Hillary Clinton's statements and explanations about her email server to the House Benghazi Committee last October were not true, as evidenced by the bureau's investigation into whether she mishandled classified information.

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 13? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-13/.

So, could this influence Hillary’s polling? Some think that she will go down under 4.9% lead on July 13, and if you have same opinion you have great odds at the moment. Range of 5.0% to 5.9% is still in lead and most likely to happen. But, at the same time, Donald Trump is not quiet either, so could Hillary again go over 6.0% lead in the next seven days?

Austrian far right gets second chance at presidency with vote re-run: Who will become president on October 2?

At the end of May, we had interesting market on the Austrian presidential election in which Norbert Hofer of the anti-immigration and anti-EU Freedom Party was a rather favorite to become the next Austrian president but on May 22 he lost to former Greens leader Alexander Van der Bellen by less than one percentage point, or around 31,000 votes.

Still, last Friday Austria's highest court has annulled the result of this presidential election narrowly lost by the candidate of the far-right Freedom Party. The party had challenged the result, saying that postal votes had been illegally and improperly handled. Thus, the election will now be re-run on October 2 this year. And who will win them this time?

Next Austrian President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-austrian-president/.

So, Austria’s Freedom party will get another go at providing the first far-right president in the EU. And, while the Austrian presidency is a largely ceremonial role, Hofer’s comment in a TV debate that “you will be surprised by what can be done by a president” had given rise to fears that he could make use of powers to dissolve parliament once in office.

“I will stand again in this run-off election, and I intend to win again – don’t let that be misunderstood”, said Van der Bellen who was due to be sworn in as president on Friday, July 8. But now he will have to fight again in October, and it will surely be a tight race once again. Currently, Van der Bellen is a small favorite but what do you think who will prevail?

Who will be the next French president? Alain Juppe, Marine Le Pen? Or again Francois Hollande, or Nicolas Sarkozy?

'Call me Madame Frexit,' said last year Marine Le Pen, the head of France’s far-right National Front, who recently announced that she would hold a referendum on the country’s membership in the EU within six months of attaining power, unless France can end the free movement of people and leave the ‘failed’ euro.

Few days ago Alain Juppé, front-runner to become French president in next year's election, said he wants to move the UK border back on British soil. "The logic requires that border controls should take place on British soil," he said. However, in regards of Brexit, Juppé also added everything was "up for negotiation."

At the same time, French President Franocis Hollande has seen his popular support plummet down to just 12 percent, as 86 percent said they did not like the way Hollande was tackling the country’s problems? So, who will be the next French president as presidential election is scheduled for April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff?

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-french-president/.

And as Hollande has said before he will decide by the end of this year whether to run again, he is not given huge chances to be reelected. In fact, former president Nicolas Sarkozy stands bigger chances to regain country’s power, though he has not formally declared his intention to be elected but is widely believed to wish to do so.

However, on November 20 and 27, Sarkozy's Republicans are organizing their first ever primary, and Sarkozy will he have to defeat former foreign affairs minister and prime minister Alain Juppé, who is currently mayor of Bordeaux. But, at the same time, Juppé is given by far the biggest chances to become the next French president.

Though some polls put National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who intends to represent her far-right movement, in the lead in the first round, but they show that she is likely to lose the runoff. All in all, a lot of different thing is happening in European politics these days, and now you can also predict the next French president. So, who is your favorite?

Will Tim Kaine be Hillary’s safe vice presidential candidate, or will she decide to risk a bit with someone else?

How important the dates of National Conventions can be had been shown once again this year as Democrats have a big advantage of holding their convention second, so Hillary Clinton can make her final vice presidential decision with the full knowledge of the Republicans ticket. With this in mind, she won’t hurry though both Conventions (July 18–21 for Repubicans and July 25–28 for Democrats) are in few weeks time.

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.

And as Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie are first favorites to be on the ticket with Donald Trump, it is Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine who is emerging as the leading candidate on the Hillary’s short list. Kaine has executive experience, solidity, values, critical state and overall profile as someone who would be a good vice president. He even came to Hillary two years ago, and over the past year traveled to seven states as her surrogate.

Still, with Hillary running for the President, many progressive-leaning Democrats would like to see historic two-woman ticket, and it could be provided if Hillary chooses Sen. Elizabeth Warren as her veep. Warren would also soothe the hurt feelings of millions of Bernie Sanders supporters who find great appeal in the message of an economic system that is rigged for those at the top.

Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.

Only problem is lack of any personal relationship between Hillary and Warren to draw on. With this in mind, there are opinions that Julian Castro, Sherrod Brown, or Tom Perez would be better options. And there is also talk about few dark horses, like Minnesota Sen. Al Franken. Anyway, Hillary has luck that she has time to look at all the options. So, what is your opinion? Will she go with Tim Kaine as a safe card, or risk with someone else?

Who will Donald Trump choose as a Republican Vice Presidential Candidate?

Republican National Convention is set to be held July 18–21, so in the following two weeks Donald Trump should choose his Vice Presidential Candidate that will be announced on the Convention. And though in the recent weeks multiple high-level Republican sources confirmed the names on the short list, final name is still not known.

And, as most knew before, that list is topped by former House Spekaer New Gingrich who is the first favorite on the markets. He is followed by Chris Christie, New Jersey Gov., and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions. There are few names more, but many think that one of those will try to help Trump to become the next President.

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.

Both Gingrich and Christie are skilled communicators who could bring political experience that Trump lacks. And they both want this job, as Trump for plenty of reasons struggled to get support from some of the popular Republicans. Christie is also high on the list, as he is one of the first establishment Republicans to endore Trump.

But, could someone out of these three become the vice presidential candidate, someone like Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin? Probably not, as New York Times also announced today that Trump is considering Gingrich and Christie as his possible running mates, while he started his vetting process. So, what is your opinion?

Today Hillary has a 5.0% lead, but by how much will she lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 6?

CNN announced yesterday that a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Trump by just two points, 42% to 40%, which is a much closer race than other recent surveys have shown. But, at the same time, polling guru Nate Silver said that Donald Trump has just a 20 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in November and notes that the former first lady has a lead no candidate has blown in a generation.

What is important for Hillary’s supporters is polling data at RealClearPolitics where she has +6.0 or Over lead for the five straight days, though it went down to 5.0% today, after being at 6.8% two days before. So, where will it stop in seven days? Can Hillary keep her lead above 6.0% or even move it over 7.0%, or will Donald start to move it down?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 6? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-6/.

And as Democrats are not pleased with the fact that Hillary’s polling lead is not higher, Fox News announced that 51% of registered Republican voters said they would rather have a different nominee over Donald Trump, so does that mean that future polling will hardly go in his favor? Anyway, you have four different polling options at Fairlay, and good odds if you guess right in which range polling numbers will be next Wednesday, July 6.

Next Scottish independence referendum result: Will Scots vote to leave UK, if they get another chance?

Immediately following the UK referendum on British membership in the EU, in which a narrow majority of UK voters as a whole voted to leave the EU while a majority of Scottish voters voted to remain, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, said on that a second referendum on Scottish independence was "highly likely".

If the reason was not clear enough, Sturgeon emphasized that the Scottish Government, the devolved legislature of Scotland, would begin preparing legislation to hold a second Scottish independence referendum to secede from the United Kingdom as a consequence of Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

With referendum happening, it would be second Scottish independence referendum after 2014 when Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, with 55.3% of the electorate voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent state and 44.7% voting in favor of the proposal. So, what would happen second time?

Next Scottish independence referendum result, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-scottish-independence-referendum-result/.

But first, will we have the second one? Well, on 26 June 2016, Scottish Secretary David Mundell stated that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another independence referendum there will be one", implying that the British Government wouldn't prevent another independence referendum.

In the last few days, few of the polls showed that vote ‘For Independence’ leads, and so this vote is a small favorite on the markets as well. And though timetable of the potential referendum is far from confirmed, you can already bet on its potential results. So, what is your opinion on this topic, and would you like to have some similar markets?

When will Article 50 be triggered? And will it be triggered at all?

Rarely have 250 words been so important – five short, obscure paragraphs in a European treaty that have suddenly become valuable political currency in the aftermath of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Those 250 words are part of the Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which sets out how an EU country might voluntarily leave the union.

The UK prime minister David Cameron had repeatedly said during the campaign that Article 50 would be triggered immediately if Vote Leave were to win the Brexit referendum. Vote Leave won but Article 50 wasn’t triggered.

In fact, in his resignation speech, Cameron made it clear he was in no hurry to push the button. “A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new prime minister and I think it is right that this new prime minister takes the decision about when to trigger article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the EU,” he said.

So, if not Cameron these days, who and when will push the button? It is not sure whether will the UK get the new prime minister before the end of the year, and that opens another question: Will article 50 ever be triggered?

When will Article 50 be triggered? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/when-will-article-50-be-triggered/.

Lawyer David Allen Green has suggested in a blogpost, that “the longer article 50 notification is put off, the greater the chance it will never be made ... As long as the notification is not sent, the UK remains part of the EU. And there is currently no reason or evidence to believe that, regardless of the referendum result, the notification will be sent at all.”

Thus, there is now a market on this topic at Fairlay, with five different options: from the one that Article 50 will be triggered before October, to one that it won’t be triggered before July 2017, or not triggered at all. What do you think?

Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten: Who will be Australian Prime Minister after July 2 federal election?

Australian federal election will be held on the following Saturday, July 2, and will determine all 226 members of the 45th Parliament of Australia, as well as the next Australian Prime Minister.

The race for the next Australian Prime Minister is between two party leaders: it will be either Liberal leader, and the current Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull or Labor leader Bill Shorten.

Australian Prime Minister after federal election
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/australian-prime-minister-after-federal-election/.

At the start of the year, Shorten was given almost no chances, but recently he is by some seen as a surprise winner, though Turnbull is still the first favorite with the chances of around 70%.

Recent survey showed that Australians' trust in politicians hit two-decade low, so could this influence following election, and help Shorten? On the other side, recent polls are still not going in his favor.

All in all, Turnbull is a favorite, but so was the stay of the UK in the EU, and it didn’t happen. So, what is your opinion? Could surprise vote in the UK, bring the surprise Prime Minister in Australia?