Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold, Silver and Bitcoin (December 2016)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold trended downwards throughout last November, dropping over 16,000 pips from the high of 1336.98 on November 9. The overall bias is bearish, and therefore, the bearish movement is supposed to continue till the end of the year. Right now, price is consolidating, and that is what it has done so far this week. A rise in momentum is expected this week or next, which would most probably favor the current bearish outlook in the market. Even rallies would be transitory and could be shorted, since price could reach the demand levels at 1150.00, 1140.00 and 1130.00 within the next few weeks.   

SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant: Bearish   
Silver trended downwards last month, and it has consolidated to far this month. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Patterns in 4-hour and daily charts; so the current consolidation is merely a pause in the trend, for it is supposed to resume any time this month. Silver would not be able to rally significantly and hold it out long, until Gold is able to that. Price is now trading below the supply zone at 17.0000, and it would be going towards the demand zones at 16.0000, 15.0000 and 14.0000 within the next several weeks. Bullish attempts ought to be fleeting and should be disregarded.

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish 
Bitcoin is in a big uptrend, which started early October 2016 (following the equilibrium phase that was witnessed in August and September). Since October, price has gone upwards by more than 16,000 pips, topping at 773.00, before it eased a bit. The northward journey would continue till the end of this year, going into next year, as price targets the distribution territories at 800.00, 850.00 and 900.00. Possibilities of pullbacks are present along the way, but these should be recovered quickly or gradually as price resumes its long-term bullish journey.

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (December 5 - 9, 2016)     
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
EURUSD consolidated throughout last week – in the context of a downtrend. A closer look at the market reveals that there has been some consolidation to the upside, and there would be some bullish attempt this week. EUR would rally versus most other major currencies, save USD, which is expected to continue strengthening this week. There are resistance lines at 1.0750 and 1.0800. There are also support lines at 1.0550 and 1.0500.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair also consolidated last week; while consolidation to the downside is revealed by a closer look. USD would remain strong this week, and would be seen going upwards against certain major currencies. The challenge is that CHF would also make some rally attempts this week, and thus, USDCHF may find it somewhat difficult to rally massively. There are resistance levels at 1.0150 and 1.0200. There are also support levels at 1.0050 and 1.0000.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish 
Cable ended a two-week equilibrium phase by breaking out significantly. The breakout was well anticipated and it ended up favoring bulls, as price went up 330 pips last week, slashing through the accumulation territory at 1.2700 and closing above it. This week, Cable would rally versus certain majors (like NZD and AUD), and of course, it is currently rallying against USD. This is something that may continue, but not without challenge from bulls.   

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument experienced some bullish movement last week. Price went up 300 pips, testing the supply level at 114.50, and unable to go above that supply level. Price underwent some bearish correction on Friday, but the bullish outlook is far from over. In fact, the outlook on the market this week is also bullish, and further northwards journey is expected. Price would need to go above the supply level at 114.50, and then continue towards the supply levels at 115.00 and 115.50. 
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This cross underwent a smooth northwards movement last week, topping at 121.88, before closing below the supply level at 121.50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and further bullish movement could be witnessed this week. There are possible bullish targets at the supply zones of 122.00, 122.50 and 123.00. On the other hand, the demand zones at 120.00 and 119.50 should try to hinder vivid pullbacks this week.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Over the coming weeks and months, many excellent short, medium and long-term trading opportunities for low risk Forex trades will present themselves. Now is the time to put together your game plan with multiple edges to profit from these trending currency pairs… Whether you want to open investment positions (using the weekly or daily chart), swing trade the 4-hour chart, or day trade the 5 minute charts, the opportunities are going to be plentiful. With these nascent trends, the leverage, the liquidity, and the 24-hour-trading the Forex market offers, you have to ask yourself: why aren’t you trading currencies yet?” - Gabriel Grammatidis (Source: Vantharp.com)

REWARD VERSUS MEANING
Trading success does not follow a linear trajectory, success ebbs and flows with good times and bad times. If you trade for long enough you there eventually will come a time when you question the decision you have made to become a trader. It all seemed so easy initially and there was never any consideration as to what could possibly go wrong.

This is a natural part of the journey and it is a watershed moment because those who understand their own motivations will have sound concrete reasons for continuing. Those who do not or whose motivations could be termed shallow or materialistic in nature do not and it it those who do not who will most likely give up.

Often when I ask people why they want to trade I get the overwhelming and immediate response – MONEY. After all this is a money profession – the aim of trading is to accumulate wealth through whatever approach suits your personality. It could be options or FX trading, or position trading equities.  This pursuit of wealth as a sole driver is the reason why advertising in this industry is directed to switching on this particular hot button. Money or the accumulation of wealth has always been a strong societal driver.

In technical parlance money is known as an extrinsic motivator – that is you do something right – you get a reward. It is a very Pavlovian arrangement. This arrangement is after all is the basis for capitalism. Traders are often caught in this trap believing that this is an exchange for labour profession when it is actually an ideas profession. This is a natural mistake because of all of our socialisation has lead us to this point.

We have been lead to believe that labour be it in whatever form it takes is exchanged for money and money is the extrinsic motivator. Granted, some are highly motivated by such rewards since careers are built on this sort of behaviour manipulation but trading is not really a career it is in my eyes more of a lifestyle choice.

Unfortunately many fail to see beyond this as an initial motivation. The issue with money as a motivator is that the subconscious cannot recognise what this means so it has no context for it. Therefore it cannot be integrated into ones psyche – it remains if you wish an outsider sitting on the sidelines attempting to steer what you do. But no matter what import you give to it as a motivation it is still an outsider and cannot directly influence the trajectory of your behaviour.

The issue with this lack of integration is that eventually it will trip you up – the subconscious has a remarkable ability to go in the direction that it wants to go in. Not in the direction you think it should go in. And you and your trading suffer the consequences of this.

In part this disconnect relates to the notion of the shadow which is an integral part of Jungian psychology.  Essentially the shadow is the darker more destructive parts of ourselves which our conscious mind does not identify. And it these parts that often brings traders unstuck – the expression that is often bandied about is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Over the past three decades I have lost count of the number of traders I have seen who have been on the cusp of making it only to do something stupid. Sometimes the better angels of our nature lose the battle.

To be successful at trading there is a need to integrate all of our beliefs, desires, and motivations into a cohesive whole as opposed to a jumble of vague ideas which revolve around money.

Money as a motivation will fail to survive the first set back you have and there will be set backs since these are also part of the game. It is only deeper motivations that enable us to move on after being literally put on our arse by the market. To think that this will never occur is naive in the extreme but once again the industry itself is to blame since it only promises the new Ferrari not that you might end up actually catching the bus.

A deeper reflection on why people want to trade reveals something other than money. And these answers reveal the true nature of the trader. Some relate to control of one’s life, others to time and having more of it. Others to what they will be able to do in the long term with their family. Such motivations are intrinsic; they are part of the fabric of the trader. Trading is merely a vehicle to fulfill these deeply held aspirations.

The motivations that each person brings to a certain endeavor or choice is idiosyncratic and will not translate to someone else. Your goals only have meaning to you but this is the central issue, they have to be your goals and not someone else’s and this clashes directly with the way we have been brought up. The structure of our lives is largely built around fulfilling the goals others, be it doing what you we told at school through to following the instructions of your employer.

Getting rich was often the payoff for following someone else’s instructions. It is not a value or meaning in and of itself. This is an important distinction because true motivations are based around meaning and not reward – Both Great change and great resilience comes from internal motivations and the strongest of these spring from the search for meaning.

This means that the search for meaning is an internal search. You do something because you want to do it not because you will get a reward for it. Internal motivation brings about meaning and purpose and therefore adherence and dedication. Finding purpose in your own goals is a new experience for many since it is reflective of what you want from your life not what someone else’s either wants from you or wants for your life.

This means that you have to undertake the hard task of writing down your meanings – what is your purpose in wanting to follow a certain path. It requires you to have your own philosophy and to be able to articulate what this is. This is the hard part – articulating what you want and you should be able to do this even if it is a struggle. Meaning has its own motivating qualities.

I firmly believe that it is impossible to motivate someone irrespective of what the industry that has sprung up around positive thinking will tell you. Motivation and therefore reliance stems from meaning since true meaning cannot be dimmed by external events whereas simply being driven by a desire to have a Porsche by next Thursday will not survive the first hurdle.

Author: Chris Tate

Article reproduced with kind permission of Tradinggame.com.au 

Monthly Forecasts for CFDs (December 2016)

AUS200
Dominant bias: Bullish
On November 9, AUS200 dipped massively, reaching a low of 5042.00. Since then price has climbed numerous resistance lines (now support lines) gaining roughly 4500 points. Since the bias on the market is bullish, it is expected that price would continue going upwards till the end of the year. While there may be pauses, consolidation, and transient corrections along the way, the market is expected to reach the resistance lines at 5530.00, 5560.00 and 5590.00.

SPX500
Dominant bias: Bullish 
This market trended south in the first few days of November, and then gapped upwards, assuming a strong bullish movement. The bullish movement was briefly interrupted on November 9 as price became extremely volatile, reaching a high of 2170.3 and a low of 2031.9. Since then price, has trended northward smoothly, reaching the resistance level at 2210.0. Attempt to close above that resistance level is currently not successfully, but that goal would be achieved this month, as price goes upwards towards the resistance levels at 2230.0, 2260.00 and 2290.0.

US30
Dominant bias: Bullish
What happened to US30 last month was quite similar to what happened to SPX500. Price trended downwards from November 1 to 4, and the gapped upwards to start a noticeable bullish journey. Price plummeted on November 9, reaching a low of 17478, owing to the US presidential elections results. From that low, price has appreciated more than 1780 points, to close at 19161 on November 30. There is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the market and the rest of this year would be bullish as price trudges towards the distribution territories at 19300, 19500 and 19700.

GER30
Dominant bias: Neutral 
Unlike SPX500 and AUS200, GER30 did not do much in November. Price did start trending downwards for a few days, gapped up later and became seriously volatile on November 9. The market dropped like stone and quickly recovered – a kind of flash crash. Since then, price has entered an equilibrium phase, bringing about a neutral bias on the market. Now, there is a base, and a rise in momentum would force price to go out of that base, and when that happens, it would most probably favor bulls. The supply levels at 10700.0, 10750.0 and 10800.0, would likely be tested within the next several weeks. 

FRA40
Dominant bias: Bullish
Interestingly, FRA40 almost did what GER30 did last month. It went south in the first few days of November, gapped upward, started a bullish journey, only to experience a flash crash on November 9. The market has recovered and it is currently making some attempts to go higher and higher, though bears are not making that an easy task (which explains the current choppy market condition). Since the outlook on the market is bullish, it is expected that price would somehow go upwards this month, maintaining the bullish outlook on it. 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (November 28 – December 2, 2016)     
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
Last week, this pair moved largely sideways in the context of a downtrend. A break out of the sideways movement should happen before the end of this week (or next week), which would most probably favor bears. Although this pair is expected to continue its bearishness, especially in December, some bullish effort would take place, which may enable price to go upwards by 200 pips or more, before seeing another bearish correction, eventually. Time would tell whether EUR would reach parity with USD.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Just like EURUSD, USDCHF also consolidated throughout last week, in a context of an uptrend. A breakout should happen before the end of this week, ending the current consolidation. Price is supposed to target the resistance levels at 1.0200 and 1.0300. On the other hand, bullish effort on the part of EURUSD might force USDCHF to retrace temporally southwards, towards the support levels at 1.0100 and 1.0000.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
GBPUSD went flat throughout last week. The flat movement started about two weeks ago and it has resulted in a neutral bias in the near-term, while the major trend in the market remains bearish. A rise in momentum is expected this week, which would most probably favor the dominant bearish trend. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, and thus, further southwards movement is expected on GBPUSD.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY is currently one of the strongest moving currency pairs. Price went upwards 310 pips this week, topping at 113.89, before getting corrected a bit lower on Friday. Since November 9, price has gone upwards by over 1200 pips; plus the outlook on the market is bullish for this week, again (the outlook is also bullish on other JPY pairs). Therefore, occasional pauses and corrections are supposed to be transitory this week, as price goes further north.
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This is also a bull market – owing to the strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern present in it. Price went north 250 pips last week, after consolidating on Monday and Tuesday. The supply zone at 120.00 has been tested, and it might be broken to the upside this week, owing to the ongoing buying pressure in the market, brought about by persistent weakness in Yen. After the supply zone at 120.00 is overcome, the next targets would be the supply zones at 130.00 and 140.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading and markets have been a major part of my life for almost 60 years. Trading has been the means through which my family and I have received many blessings.” – Joe Ross 

Would Thanksgiving Rally Happen This Year?

Would Thanksgiving Rally Happen This Year?
GOLD (XAUUSD) is currently weak, owing to another phase of a southward movement, which started a few months ago. The downtrend has been particularly strong since October. This week would be interesting because of a possibility of a Thanksgiving rally. Would it ever happen this year?

Thanksgiving rally has not taken place since last few years, though it occurred every year before then, with stunning accuracy. In case it would happen, it should be during the week in which Thanksgiving is observed. If it would ever happen this year, then it should be this week.

Historical data shows that this kind of rally usually occurred in the years when the long-term trend was bullish. For example, Gold was predominantly bullish from 2002 to 2012 (save the conspicuous correction that took place in 2008, although Thanksgiving rally did take place in that year also). Since 2012, the market has been predominantly bearish, till now, and that explains one of the reasons this rally has not taken place in the last few years.

It should be borne in mind that a market can decline while trend is predominantly bullish. On the other hand, a rally can take place while trend is predominantly bearish; which means that a Thanksgiving rally could take place in spite of the current bearish outlook, and it may not take place at all.

This phenomenon may keep appearing occasionally in the years to come, or it may disappear altogether. Whatever the case may be, skilled speculators have always thrived by trading what they see.

Monthly Technical Reviews on Silver and Bitcoin
SILVER (XAGUSD) is also in a bearish trend. It plunged in the first few days of October, and moved sideways till the end of the month. Silver underwent another strong bearish run on November 11, forming a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This means price may continue journeying downwards, and probably reaching the support levels at 15.0000, 14.0000 and 13.0000 before the end of this year. On the other hand, a serious rally on Gold would trigger a rally on Silver. 

BITCOIN (BTCUSD) is in an uptrend and there is a bullish bias on it. The current bullish trend started in October, following the sideways movement that was experienced in September. The market is quite choppy, but the uptrend is expected to continue till the end of this year. Therefore, price could reach the distribution territories at 750.00, 760.00 and 770.00 within the next few months, since buying pressure is supposed to continue. As usual, occasional pauses and transitory corrections would be witnessed here, but the overall movement would be bullish. 
 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 21 - 25, 2016)     
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
This pair went downwards last week, going below the resistance lines at 1.0650 and 1.0600. Since November 9, price has come down more than 700 pips, leading to a very strong bearish bias on the market. There is a possibility of further downwards movement, which could enable price to reach for the support lines at 1.0550, 1.0500 and 1.0450. This expectation would hold only as long as USD does not showcase any noticeable weakness.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF moved upwards by 215 last week. Price managed to go above the psychological level at 1.0000, now at the resistance level of 1.0100. Price has gone upwards reluctantly so far, and there is a possibility that it would make further bullish effort this week. There is another potential target at the resistance level of 1.0200, but the further the market goes upwards, the higher the chances of a large pullback. The bullish bias would hold as long as USD does not lose stamina. 

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
GBPUSD underwent a vivid bearish correction throughout last week – an action that has resulted in a bearish signal in the short and long terms. Long trades are currently not prudent in this market, unless price action reveals that things are conspicuously bullish. Right now, the market is in a downtrend, and only short trades should be sought. Rallies would offer opportunities to go short at better prices.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern on USD/JPY. Since the low of November 9, the pair has shot skywards by over 960 pips. Apparently, this is one of the strongest directional movement in recent months, and the supply levels at 111.00, 111.50 and 112.00 could be attained this week. The outlook on JPY pairs remains bullish for this week (just as bullish movements were forecast for most JPY pairs last week).
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This cross also went bullish last week, fuelled by the buying pressure in the market, and as a result of weakness in Yen. Because Yen is so weak that, even weak currencies like EUR and GBP could manage to rally versus it. In case a currency is strong in its own right, just like the case of USD, the rally against Yen would be strong and fast indeed. As long as Yen does not become strong conspicuously, the northward movement on EURJPY would continue. The supply zones at 118.00 and 118.50 are being watched this week.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“YOU are the biggest factor in your trading success…” – Dr. Van. Tharp

Trading For Sure Profits
Rule-based discretionary traders are among the best traders on this planet. The trading strategy explained here is a rule-based discretionary system. Similarly, the fact that the majority of traders fail does not mean that trading is a dead end activity. Traders who are successful prove otherwise. Occasional losses leading to transient drawdowns are inevitable but not insurmountable challenges in trading.

The secret to success lies in developing a deep love for trading and a willingness to apply trading principles that work. Trading principles that work are non-market specific. For a strategy to survive all market conditions, it must have three ingredients incorporated into it: aborting losers and capitalizing on winners, very low risk, and rock-solid discipline.

These are the secrets of trading masters – trading success has nothing to do with your ability to predict the markets accurately. If you give yourself a sensible reward-to-risk ratio, you will survive the markets in the long run. For instance, it does not make sense to risk $20 in an effort to gain $2. These secrets are what make the difference between financial freedom and financial disaster – the difference between solvency and bankruptcy.

The Pedigree of a Good Strategy
It is very disturbing that so many traders find it difficult to survive on the markets. Many top market speculators are perplexed by a new generation of traders who do not seem to have a clue about the skills necessary to preserve their trading portfolios.

The issue is: even if you are disciplined, it would be difficult for you to survive with a worse expectancy system, i.e. a system whose risk is greater than the reward. And checking complex data ad infinitum is not so sensible for simple markets either. Good trading strategies are the ones that survive all market conditions.

This kind of strategy must be effective in sustaining minimal drawdowns when the market conditions are not favorable – while making a decent profit during favorable market conditions. Whether a strategy is trend-following or countertrend or scalping, it will survive all market conditions provided that those simple but effective principles are incorporated into it. The markets eventually reward those who show an earnest quest for trading mastery.

Winning Strategy for Short-term Trends: learn.tradimo.com/a-sure-fire-forex-strategy

Breakdown of the Strategy
Timeframe:
Trading style:
Indicators parameters:
Buy rule:
Sell Rule:
Position sizing:
Stop loss:
Take profit:
Trailing stop:
Risk per trade:
Potential reward per trade:
Max. weekly drawdown:
Safety rule:
Filter rule:
Instruments names:
Average orders per week:
Orders type:
Signals generation periods:

Winning Strategy for Short-term Trends: learn.tradimo.com/a-sure-fire-forex-strategy

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 14 - 18, 2016)     
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
This pair started a bearish movement on Monday, which was briefly interrupted by a massive rally, caused by the U.S. presidential elections results. Price rallied 280 pips on Wednesday and started coming down that day, forming a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The support line at 1.0850 is almost being breached to the downside. While the support lines at 1.0850 and 1.0800 could be breached this week, there is also a possibility of rallies in the market (especially when USDCHF pulls back again).

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF moved sideways on Monday and Tuesday, and plunged seriously on Wednesday, November 9. The bearish plunge was quickly recovered as price rallied massively 290 pips that day, from a low of 0.9549, leading to a bullish signal in the market. Price could now target the resistance level at 0.9900, 0.9950 and lastly, 1.0000. However, a great challenge remains at the resistance level at 1.0000, which is a psychological level. In case price is unable to go above that psychological level, there could be a clear bearish correction.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable remains bullish in the near term, and bearish in the long term. The market is quite choppy, having consolidated from Monday to Thursday (in the context of a near-term uptrend), and then going upwards vividly on Friday. Further upward movement is anticipated this week, as the bias on the market remain bullish. The distribution territories at 1.2650, 1.2700 and 1.2750 may be targeted this week. The distribution territory at 1.2650 was tested last week, and it could be tested again, and a northward movement of 500 pips more, would cause a bullish signal in the daily chart also.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was forecast last week, JPY pairs really made bullish attempts. The bullish journey started on Monday and it was briefly interrupted on Wednesday as there were temporary massive sell-offs on USDJPY. Price plunged by roughly 400 pips on Wednesday and rallied on the same day, plus Thursday, and consolidated on Friday. The market is currently above demand levels at 106.00 and 106.50, targeting the supply levels at 107.00, 107.50 and 108.00 this week. The outlook on most JPY pairs remains bullish for this week (with possible exceptions of AUDJPY and NZDJPY).
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The movement on this currency trading instrument was not as strong as that of USDJPY. The market is quite choppy while the outlook on it remains bullish. Should EUR gather some stamina this week, there could be more predictable bullish movement. Initial targets on the upside are the supply zones at 116.50 and 117.00. For price to go above these targets, persistent buying pressure is needed.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Take every trade that the system generates because you do not know where the returns are going to be generated.” – Chris Tate

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 21

“Trading shares many similarities with another past-time I enjoy: strategy games. I love playing chess, and I think trading and chess require a similar set of characteristics to do well — they require that you act thoughtfully, never impulsively.” - Ron Kapar 

Name: Bill Dunn
Nationality: American
Occupation: Trader and portfolios manager
Website: Dunncapital.com

NO HESITATION FOR HOME RUN
Bill spent his childhood in Kansas City and Southern California. He served 3 years with the U.S. Marine Corps. He got his Bachelor’s Degree in Engineering Physics from the University of Kansas in 1960. Then he obtained a Doctorate in Theoretical Physics from Northwestern University.

In the following 2 years, he was a researcher in faculty positions at University of California and Pomona College. He also worked in logistics and operational systems in other areas.

In 1974, Bill founded DUNN Capital Management, a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with a long, rich history of experience and performance. Dunncapital.com states that, with 19 partners contributing a combined $137,000, Dr. Bill officially launched his finance career, trading client money in his 100% systematic managed futures strategy. When a trading opportunity presented itself, it was all or nothing, never hesitating to swing for the home run. He traded only 11 markets at that time, being in an uncharted territory at the time and breaking new ground in an undeveloped alternative asset class.

The firm has a track record that spans over 30 years and has produced a compounded annual rate of return of 14.2% per annum, after all fees and expenses. Their staff are highly experienced and well-educated.

Bill Dunn is now the Chairman Emeritus of DUNN.  In January 2010, a business succession plan was put into place that gave Martin H. Bergin partial ownership of the firm.  In August 2015, Mr. Bergin became the sole owner of DUNN.  This means is Mr. Bergin currently the President and Owner of DUNN.


What You Need to Know:
1.   Bill Dunn is a trend follower. He trades what he sees. The benefit of doing this is clear in his track record.

2.   Sometimes, he made great profits. Sometimes, he suffered some drawdowns. Such is trading. No matter the level of volatility in his portfolios, he never deviated from his main methodology.

3.   For Bill, the markets are his real world. He started just like any one of you. He came across a newsletter while still young, and he was hooked. The rest is a story…

4.   He’s a long-term trader, sometimes holding positions for more than a year. He’s computerized his strategy. At least, his background in scientific research and mathematical analysis both in academia as well as in the defense contracting industry has been applied to trading; and successfully. He himself said: I felt there were very definite economic trends that were established from knowledge and the ability to know what events meant. I was looking for a way to participate in [those] major trends when they occurred, even though they were unexpected.”

5.   We don’t change our profitable methodologies because of drawdowns. Minor changes might be made to make a good methodology perform better, but that should not interfere with a good trading idea.

6.   Bill acknowledges that money management is the true survival key; plus trading without a predefined exit strategy is a recipe for disaster.

Conclusion: Speculation has to do with the unpredictability of the future. Whatever people do have to do with some of forecast which is inherent in the uncertainties of human acts and actions.

This article is ended with a quote from Bill:

“We have not made any changes because of a drawdown. While we have made minor changes since the program started trading in 1974, over the course of the years the basic concepts have never changed. The majority of the trading parameters and the buy and sell signals largely have remained the same.”

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 7 - 11, 2016)      
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
From the weekly low of 1.0935, this pair went upwards by over 200 pips, to close above the support line at 1.1100 on Friday. Price is now close to the resistance line at 1.1150, and a breach of that resistance line would enable price to go towards another resistance lines at 1.1200 and 1.1250. As long as the support line at 1.1000 is not broken to the downside, the bullish signal, which has formed in this market, would remain valid.     

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/CHF was unable to go above the psychological level at 1.0000. An attempt to do that on October 25 was quickly forestalled – even before that psychological level was even tested. It has been mentioned that failure to breach the level might result in a serious pullback, and that was exactly what happened. Price pulled back significantly last week, to close below the resistance level at 0.9700 on Friday. This 210-pip bearish movement has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and further price decline is a possibility this week (unless USD gathers some stamina).

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Following a few weeks of consolidation, GBPUSD rallied massively last week. Price went upwards 370 pips, to test the distribution territory at 1.2550. The bias has already turned bullish in the short term (though it would take another 1000-pip movement to the upside, before the bias on the daily chart can turn bullish). Right now, there is a strong buying pressure in the market and this should continue this week. Unless USD gathers lots of stamina, bulls would be able to reach the distribution territories at 1.2650, 1.2700 and 1.2750.   

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY consolidated on Monday and then plummeted on Tuesday. While going south, the demand level at 102.50 was almost tested, and this has brought an end the recent bullish bias. The demand level at 102.50 would eventually be tested, and probably breached to the downside. However, there is also a possibility that JPY pairs would make some bullish attempts this week, which could also be reflected on USDJPY. 
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This trading instrument did not move very much last week. Unlike USDJPY, it was engaged in a slight bearish correction in the middle of last week; and the corrective actiion was ended on Friday as the market closed on a bullish note. This week, whatever happens to EUR would have some impact on the market. Before the end of the week, price would have gone either above the supply zone at 115.50 or below the demand zone at 113.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I'm a full time trader. Nothing else…For all of you guys that think trading full time isn't possible, well I'm here to tell you it is. I actually met another full time trader the other day at the basketball court (trading for 20 years) and he trades millions of dollars. So I don't understand why people think that trading full time a myth...” – MarketAddict (Source: Elitetrader.com)

“Acceptance is a good state for trading because at this level you can accept losses and profits — both of which are a regular part of trading. In fact, acceptance of small losses is critical to successful trading.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp

WHAT’S YOUR ATTITUDE TO TRADING CHALLENGES?
Michael: “I put so much effort and time into my trading, and still didn’t get it right! I’ll never succeed at trading. No matter how hard I try, it’s never good enough. Why do I even try?”

Akin: “I can see that I’m making some progress in trading, but I made some embarrassing mistakes. I’ve learned some valuable lessons that will make me do better next time.”

Questions: 6 months from now, which one would be a more competent trader Michael or Akin? If you want to have a good trader as a friend, which of those two men would you be more likely to keep? When you face frustration in trading, how do you react?

Sade is fed up with trading and she refuses to take steps that can make her improve. She reasons, “Why should I waste my time on a career that gives me nothing in return?”

Michelle makes concerted effort to be a good trader and to help other traders, whether she makes profits or not. She takes to heart the Golden Rules of trading, for she believes they work. For Michelle, trying to be a better trader brings rewards with the time.

Questions: Which of these 2 women did you think would be successful as a trader? Which one would have better results in future? Are you like Sade or Michelle? 
 
WHAT CAN YOU DO?
Avoid Pessimism: Pessimism will sap you of the strength you need to improve your trading and help deal with the challenges. Your outlook and attitude aren’t set in stone. You can be made “new” in your thinking (and ongoing process).

Focus on the Positive Aspects of Trading: If you see everything about trading negatively, you will feel “afflicted” and every day will appear “bad” or gloomy. But if you focus on positive things in trading, you will have a “cheerful heart” and even feel joyful. The choice is yours. Occupy your mind with encouraging subjects on trading.

Do Things to Help Other Traders: Look for opportunities to be self-sacrificing when it comes to helping other traders who need assistance. I haven’t totally put aside my long-term goals. But I’m focusing on the smaller goals I can reach now. When discouraging thoughts creep into my mind, I reflect on the many reasons I’ve to be a happy trader.

If you’re dealing with negative trading circumstances, please ask yourself: Is the situation really hopeless? Have I reached a dead-end or is this merely a road-block. Learn to keep negative thoughts out by concentrating on something constructive in your career.

Conclusion: Care for your attitude toward trading in the same way you would cultivate a garden. Root out the poisonous weeds of pessimism and negativity. Sow seeds of realistic optimism, and fertilize your life with actions that produce positive emotions. You will reap emotional crop that will make your trading career much more rewarding. And it will confirm that a trader’s attitude makes a difference!

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“The only Forex trading tricks recommended are simply patience, self discipline and applying strategies that will allow you not to take big risks.” – Painofhell (Source: Einvestorsforum.com) 

Monthly Forecasts for CFDs (November 2016)

AUS200
Dominant bias: Bearish
AUS200 consolidated in the first few weeks of October, and dropped conspicuously last week. There are Bearish Confirmation Patterns in the 4-hour and daily charts, which portend the possibility that price could go further south. Therefore, price may target the support lines at 5200.0, 5100.0 and 5000.0 this month, though there would be temporary consolidations or rally attempts along the way.

SPX500
Dominant bias: Bearish 
SPX500 has been consolidating for months. Price has been unable to effect any meaningful bullish rally since August and things are going gradually bearish. Right now, there are bearish signals in the 4-hour and daily charts, and so, the market may reach the support levels at 2100.0, 2090.0 and 2080.0. It is most likely that bears would dominate the market till the end of this year.

US30
Dominant bias: Neutral 
This trading instrument has been in an equilibrium phase since August 2016, though price moved a bit lower in September, and then moving sideways till now. Although the equilibrium movement may continue for some time this month, a rise in momentum is imminent, and that may happen this month or next. A break above the distribution territory at 18650.0 would result in a bullish outlook; and a break below the accumulation territory at 17900.0 would result in a bearish outlook. As long as price is between these accumulation and distribution territories, the market would be viewed as being in an equilibrium phase; and so, a strong and persistent buying or selling pressure is needed to push price out of that zone.

GER30
Dominant bias: Bullish 
On the daily chart, the bias on GER30 remains bullish. However a closer look at lower timeframes reveals that price is being corrected. Last week, a clear bearish correction was witnessed on the 4-hour char, though that is not yet strong enough to pose a serious threat to the bullish bias on the daily chart. This week, the current bullishness in the market would be most probably maintained, which cannot be overturned until the demand level at 10100.0 is breached to the downside. 

FRA40
Dominant bias: Bullish
The situation surrounding this market is quite similar to the condition affecting GER30. The bias on the daily chart is bearish, but some correction has been going on a lower timeframe like the 4-hour chart. The bullish bias would continue to be safeguarded irrespective of some transitory pullbacks along the way, except a breach of the demand zone at 4350.0 is breached.

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 31 – November 4, 2016)     
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
This pair moved sideways last week, and then traded upwards on Friday. However, that was not significant enough to result in any bullish signal. The bias on the market remains bearish, and what happened on Friday could turn out to be a short-selling opportunity. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week, and therefore EURUSD would keep on being bearish. Price may thus test the support lines at 1.0900, 1.0850 and 1.0800 this week. The only thing could help bulls here is a large pullback on USDCHF, which is not likely this week.     

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This trading instrument has managed to climb above the resistance level at 0.9900, before bears pushed back the price below it. The market has been consolidating for two weeks, though the bullish outlook remains valid. The outlook on USD is bullish for this week and this month, which means most major currencies would be weakened against it. USDCHF would make bullish attempts but there is a very difficult resistance level at 1.0000, which would require lots of buying pressure to breach. Should bulls fail to breach that resistance level, a pullback may materialize.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable has been moving sideways for two weeks, which has resulted in a neutral bias in the short-term. The long-term bias is bearish, and when momentum rises, it may favor bears. The outlook on the market is bearish for this week, and rallies should be disregarded, for they would be transitory and cannot be significant enough to bring an end to the current long-term bearish outlook. In November, large movements would be witnessed on GBP pairs, and they would undergo bearish movements in most cases.   

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was mentioned in the last forecast, USDJPY has become bullish. Price moved upwards by 170 pips last week, to test the supply level at 105.50. The bearish correction that was seen on October 28 was just another opportunity to buy long when things are on sale, in the context of an uptrend. The most probable movement for JPY pairs is bullish for this week, though the situation may change before or by the end of November.
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
In spite of the weakness in EUR, the EURJPY cross rallied by 230 pips last week. Price closed at 115.11 on Friday, after forming a clear Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. The current price action shows that bulls are still willing to push price further north, which may make price to reach the supply zones at 115.50, 116.00 and 116.50 this week. After all, it is expected that JPY pairs would make some bullish attempts in the week. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Earning a trading income compared to earning an occupation income is just so damned rewarding!” – Louise Bedford   

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 20

“It sounds attractive to try and make a quick buck, but like anything else, real money is made by slowly compounding your returns.” - Andrew Beattie   

Name: Larry Robbins
Age: 47
Nationality: American
Occupation: Portfolio and hedge fund manager

A COMMITTED, ILLUSTRIOUS INVESTOR
Robbins was born into a Jewish family, in Arlington Heights, Illinois. He was a hockey star while in college.

One source says he graduated with honors from the Jerome Fisher Program in Management and Technology at the University of Pennsylvania in 1992, where he received a B.S. in Economics with concentrations in accounting, finance, marketing and a B.S in Engineering, with a major in systems engineering. He became a Certified Public Accountant in 1991. 

Following his graduation, Larry worked at Gleacher & Company, spending three years there. He worked at Omega Advisors (for Leon Cooperman), spending six years.

He left Omega Advisors, establishing his own firm, Glenview Capital Management, in 2000. This firm has been so successful, averaging 15% returns of net of fees per annum. As of July 2014, Glenview Capital Management had about $9.2 billion of capital under management.

Larry was worth US$ 2.3 billion in December 215. He became involved in various charitable activities, and he’s an active supporter of education reform both in New York City and across the U.S. He’s also the Senior Chair of the Wall Street Division of the UJA-Federation.

He’d four sons by his former wife, Amy Robbins. He lives in Alpine, New Jersey, with his current wife, Sarahmay Wesemael. He’s won awards.

What You Need to Know:
1.   It’s no surprise that Larry doesn’t use stops in his trades. There are many traders who don’t use stops and are hugely successful. However, using stops is safer. What does he also do differently? He holds stocks for years, being an investor; and perhaps, that’s one of the reasons why he survives the market in the long run without using stops.

2.   Larry said: If you really want to be a good investor, you cannot just be involved, you have to be committed. It’s not about what you did before but about… persistence and continuity of work effort.

3.   When you’re affected by a bad trading outcome, you’ll need to take it as a lesson. Most traders who lose may be young and inexperienced. They don’t realize how risky it is to walk into the waters without proper knowledge. But those who’ll end up making money in the markets don’t give up… They take what happen to them as a great education.

4.   Larry believes trading isn’t just a job, it’s a passion, though it was almost by accident that he went into the hedge fund and investment business.

5.   As a trader, think like an owner, not like a trader.

6.   A trader who’s been engaging the markets for 12 years is obviously one that has had some success. That success is what allows traders to be responsible and philanthropic.

Conclusion: Gainful speculation is not that hard on paper – know where to buy and where to sell when price looks to be going in your favor. Really, you got to know what it means to buy at a demand zone and sell at a supply zone. You got to know the meaning of doing this. Traders interpret demand and supply zones differently. When they look at the chart, they come with various decisions. You simply need to find ways to survive the markets while doing your own market analysis.

This article is ended with a quote from Larry:

“I don’t think that I have met someone who is very good in the investment business who isn’t hard-working, bright, talented, and focused.” 


Super Trading Strategies: Advfnbooks.com/books/supertradingstrategies/index.html     

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 24 - 28, 2016)      
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
EURUSD dropped by over 100 pips last week. Price has dropped by more than 300 pips since October 10, resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook on EURUSD (and other EUR pairs) is bearish for this week. Therefore, slow and steady downward movement is expected on EURUSD and the support lines at 1.0850 and 1.0800 could be tested this week. Rallies would proffer opportunities to sell short at better prices.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Bulls laid a decisive siege at the support level at 0.9900 (formerly a resistance level) from October 12 to 20. It was already forecast that bulls would not find it easy to break the level at 0.9900 to the upside. On October 20, bears gave way to the persistent bullish pressure, partly due to existing stamina in USD. Price was able to close above the support level at 0.9900 after testing the resistance level at 0.9950, and retracing. This week, further bullish movement is possible in the market, because USD is strong and because CHF would be weak this week. Some currencies would rally versus CHF and this would help USDCHF to go more northward, though a significant bullish movement is not likely.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
GBPUSD made a shallow rally attempt from Monday to Wednesday and then consolidated till the end of the week. As it was hinted in the last forecast, this week would witness more volatility on GBP pairs when compared to last week. This means the present consolidation on GBPUSD would end as momentum rises, though the outlook on GBP pairs is bullish for this week. In case GBPUSD rallies, we would not anticipate a serious threat to the extant dominant bias in the market. 

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY went sideways throughout last week – a situation that could be termed a sideways movement in the context of an uptrend. The outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week, and USDJPY might be able to rise towards the supply levels at 104.50, 105.00 and 105.50. This is a situation that could lead to a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. The supply levels at 103.00 and 102.50 would serve to restrict large pullbacks this week. 
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish   
There is a bearish signal on this trading instrument, as price dived by 170 pips last week. One great factor that has contributed to this bearish signal is the weakness in EUR itself, and the only factor that could effect any rally on this instrument is the fact that Yen could become weak (thereby causing JPY pairs to rally this week). In case EUR becomes weaker than Yen, price would fall further. A factor that causes Yen to become weaker than EUR would bring some rally in the market.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"When you understand the rules of the game, you can play the game like a master..." – James Altucher

In trading we have a concept known as alpha – that is the measure of skill we bring to the investment process as measured by comparison to a given benchmark. Traditionally we think of generating alpha via our instrument selection or timing. The aim of being a trend follower or momentum trader is to buy instruments that are moving in the right direction. The naive trader or investor sees this as some form of prediction when in actual fact it is simply a bet.

The philosophy behind this is that the ones you get right pay for the ones you get wrong and once or twice a year you get a trade that does extremely well. The trick is not to go broke waiting for the one that does extremely well. And it is this not going broke that is the key to the entire equation.

If you look at fund managers or hedge funds who have gone broke you notice that what has sent them broke has been what I would called a conviction bet. They are absolutely and completely convinced of their opinion, as such they effectively bet the farm on a given trade or series of trades. This is much more common than you would think and has been responsible for some spectacular collapses, the most notably was Long Term Capital Management in 1998.

 More recently we have seen Bill Ackman of Pershing Square drop what is conservatively estimated at in excess of $500 million on a bet that Herbalife was a pyramid scheme. The notion of conviction bets reveals more about the psychology of the traders placing the bets than it does about their methodology since their methodology is simply to bet big and hang on.

This recent paper by Novus looks at the notion of position sizing/money management as a source of deriving alpha, that is profitability is derived by sizing bets correctly and as you might assume not going broke. Novus make an interesting point –

Many elite managers owe most of their winnings to their ability to consistently generate value through sizing decisions. In other words, they consistently make accurate sizing decisions. To that end, position sizing alpha is a good measure to evaluate the sizing decisions made by a manager and assess their skill at optimizing a portfolio – at least with regards to relative performance of their own positions.

This underlines survivability as the key issue in being profitable – it might seem obvious but to the funds management industry it isn’t. You can read the entire report here but there is a point they make that I want to concentrate on

We found that more than half of the managers in our universe benefit from position sizing in absolute return terms. Since January 2010 through the end of last year, 57.5% of our HFU managers outperformed equally-weighted versions of themselves, and 41% underperformed. The remainder saw no difference in annualized return due to sizing.

My view of this is that it is not the winning positions that they sized correctly but rather the losing ones which were sized correctly which influenced their performance. This meant that no single trade had a disproportionately negative impact upon the portfolio. None of them experienced a situation where they had the bulk of their fund in a single instrument that tanked taking them with it. As an historical example of what can happen when you have a concentration of bets consider the fate of the somewhat aptly named Tokyo based Eifuku Hedge Fund. This fund in the space of nine days lost effectively all of its capital due to its bets in three trade groups.

If there were a take home lesson in this it would be to pay defence and wait for the winners to reveal themselves. However, this presents a problem since it requires the trader to admit when they were wrong and to admit that mistake and act accordingly. The means that the traditional mechanisms we put in place to defend our ego have to disappear in order for us to be successful.


Author: Chris Tate

Article reproduced with kind permission of Tradinggame.com.au

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 17 - 21, 2016)     
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
This pair trended downwards by 220 pips last week – just as it was expected. Price closed below the resistance line at 1.1000, going towards the support line at 1.0950. Bears may eventually target the support line at 1.0900, but they would meet some opposition at that place.  The bias on the market is bearish, and any rallies seen here should be taken as opportunities to sell short at better prices. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USD/CHF was able to trend higher last week, managing to reach the resistance level at 0.9900. Based on the prognosis last week, bulls were unable to push price beyond the resistance level, though they may be able to do that this week, due to the perceived buying pressure in the market. The current price action shows that price is almost above that resistance level. Once price goes above the resistance level, next targets would be other resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000. Once again, it is unlikely that price would go above the psychological level at 1.0000, though USDCHF would remain bullish as long as EURUSD remains bearish.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable plunged last week, reaching the low of 1.2088 on October 11. Price then consolidated till the end of the week. The bias on the market is bearish in the short and long-terms, and thus, it is logical to anticipate another bearish journey once this consolidation ends. This does not rule out a possibility of a rally, which cannot be significant enough to threaten the current bearish bias. The movements on GBP pairs this week would not be as strong as the movements that would be witnessed next week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market has managed to maintain its bullish stance; as price continued to trudge northwards. The supply level at 104.50 has been tested and it would be tested again. Some bearish forces would attract the current short-term uptrend, but unless USD itself experiences loss in stamina, the bias would not turn bearish. The bullish outlook would remain as long as price does not breach the demand level at 102.00 to the downside.
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish   
EURJPY has not moved significantly in the short-term, though a closer look at the market reveals that bears have upper hands over bulls. As long as EUR is somewhat weak, price may face some difficulties in going up. Price is currently below the supply zone at 114.50, and it may test the demand zones at 114.00 and 113.50 this week. On the other hand, a movement above the supply zone at 116.00 would result in a clear bullish signal.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“My belief is that the markets are a very friendly place. Whatever you want in life, the markets will find a way to give it to you. I’m not being facetious here.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 19

“However, master traders tend to act differently than most humans. They look inward for direction. They are not afraid of taking risks, even if it means hurting themselves in the end. Throughout history, famous traders, investors and business leaders have had tremendous ups and downs in their lives. Unlike most people, they have learned to overcome human nature.” – Joe Ross (Source: Tradingeducators.com)

Name: William “Bill” Gross
Date of birth: April 13, 1944
Nationality: American
Occupation: Financial manager, author and philanthropist

AMERICA’S MOST PROMINENT BOND INVESTOR
Bill was born in Middletown, Ohio, to a homemaker and a sales executive for AK Steel Holding. He also has Canadian blood in his veins.

He later moved with his parents to San Francisco in 1954, graduated from Duke University in 1966 (a degree in psychology), and then served in the Navy. He got his MBA from the UCLA Anderson School of Management in 1971, and began to play blackjack professionally in Las Vegas – an experience that made him learn how to spread risk and calculate odds to his trading positions. From 1971 to 1976, he worked as a CFA for Pacific Mutual Life.

He co-founded Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO), which grew to as huge as $270.0 billion Total Return Fund (PTTRX). Bill traded one of the biggest mutual funds in the world, thus earning the title of “the nation's most prominent bond investor.” In September 26, 2014, he left PIMCO to join Janus.

In the 1990s, Bill wrote two best-selling books on investing. They’re: “Everything You've Heard About Investing Is Wrong!” (1997); and “Bill Gross on Investing “(1998).

In September 2008, he made a profit of $1.7 billion. He and his wife are generous philanthropist, having donate many, many millions of dollars to higher education, humanity (Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières), charities, scientific and medical research,

As of March 2013, Bill was worth $2.3 billion. He’s a Presbyterian, who’s been married twice and blessed with 3 children. He resides in Laguna Beach, California, United States.

This great trader is also a prominent stamp collector. One source reveals that, as of November 2005, he became the third person (after Robert Zoellner in the 1990s and Benjamin K. Miller pre-1925), to form a complete collection of 19th century United States postage stamps.

What You Need to Know:
1.   Yes, you can be a spiritual and be a profitable trader. In fact, spirituality helps a lot in trading, especially in the area of trading psychology. Dr. Van K. Tharp is a fine example of someone who’s found ways to apply spiritual principles to life and trading transformation, through a program called “Oneness.”  Bill was reported as one of a number of prominent investors who have taken to transcendental meditation.

2.   Bills said he was obsessed with delivering value to investors and winning the game from a personal standpoint. We need to desire success extremely seriously – till it appears like an obsession.

3.   Why are you a trader? Why are you a fund manager? As a trader/fund manager, you don’t get paid to regret or feel sorry for yourself. You’re paid to bring yourself or your investor money. Though traders are human beings, they’re tough when it comes to trading.

4.   Gross said: “The real boss in the family is my wife. She didn't want me hanging around the house all day and said, 'You don't want to retire; you'll regret it.' So I listened to her. What does this tell us? Well, good traders don’t retire as long as they’re alive. It’s one of those very few jobs in which there’s no age of retirement.

5.   What drives price movements? It’s humans. Human nature, herd mentality, coupled with institutions that lose their heads and sense of mission. This is the weakness that drives price movements.

6.   It’s unwise when your risk is higher than your potential rewards. This is when money runs out of time; when lenders desert credit markets for other alternatives such as cash or real assets.

Conclusion: Wise Traders don’t fool themselves into thinking that they can prognosticate the markets just as scientists do in other scientific fields. Prices have nothing to do with natural laws, since there are many hidden things that can affect price movements. We can’t do more than analyze only the information at our disposal and informed assumptions. 

This piece is ended with a quote from Bill:

“In questioning initially whether I am a great investor, I open the door to question whether other similarly esteemed public icons like Bill Miller are as well. It seems, perhaps, that the longer and longer you keep at it in this business the more and more time you have to expose your Achilles heel - wherever and whatever that might be.”

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 10 - 14, 2016)      
   
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
   
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral 
This pair remains neutral in spite of strong volatility witnessed on other pairs and crosses last week.  Price simply went below the support line at 1.1150 and then moved towards the resistance line at 1.1200, closing at 1.1200. The neutral bias would persist for some time, but a strong momentum is expected soon. Price needs to go above the resistance line at 1.1350, or below the support line at 1.1050, before it could be said that the neutral bias is over. This week, the most probable direction for EURUSD and some other few EUR pairs, is downwards.     

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument is neutral in the long term, but bullish in the short-term. Price went upward on Monday and Tuesday, nosedived on Wednesday, and went upwards again on Thursday and got corrected again on Friday.  While it is possible for this instrument to go further upwards, the movement would be limited, because it is unlikely that price would be able to go above the resistance level at 0.9900.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern on GBPUSD market, and most other GBP pairs. As it was predicted last week, price dropped sharply by 880 pips, reaching a low of 1.2031. This is a persistent bearish trend. After that, price bounced back by 420 pips, to close at 1.2421. What next? Well, the forecast for this week is that, GBPUSD would be bullish (which is also true of a few other GBP pairs). Price would go visibly upwards this week, but that would not be significant enough to override the currently long-term bearish outlook on the market.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was anticipated, USDJPY broke upwards last week, ending the recent equilibrium phase in the market. Price shot skywards by 280 pips, testing the supply level at 104.00 and the getting corrected by 100 pips. Price closed below the supply level at 103.00 on Friday, and that could be a good opportunity to seek long trades when things are on sale, and in the context of an uptrend. The outlook on JPY pairs remain bullish for this week, so price could go upwards again by at last, 150 pips this week.
   
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
Just like USDJPY, EURJPY went upwards seriously last week, testing the supply zone at 116.00 pips, before getting corrected by 90 pips. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the market, and further upwards movement could happen this week, thereby ending the current bearish correction. From the current locating, price may go towards the supply zones at 115.50, 116.00, and 116.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I learned that the market truly is your greatest teacher and that trading is a skill you must nurture and develop. The more time you spend in the market, the better you are able to understand market movements.” - Michael Patak