This is what goes passes for capitulation for me. I'm out of fiat. out of leverage. Might lose everything in a margin call. Pawn shops are closed and I just bet the mortgage money. I'm just a spectator now. Good luck, Gentleman. I did everything I could.
 how did I get here? |
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Ha, I'm selling when Stolfi turns bull. Can you go back to the evil miner incentive for a while Jorge? |
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all this financial talk is wonderful and all, but your missing a fundamental point.. maybe not all of you but the ones i looked at..
bitcoin is uniquely positioned as the foremost cryptocurrency-the very notion is a novel invention that could, and to some extent is, revolutionizing the way money is exchanged.. i dont care how much miners end up costing the few.. i for one have free power-at least for me it is- and so i will mine till my miners fall to pieces or 21mil is reached.. whichever comes first. there are some that place value beyond speculation-like myself i see bitcoin's value as a vehicle of greater than mere financial efficacy. what about the social and political influences that bitcoin provides for?
one could theoretically fund a revolution with bitcoin.. think about that
The electric utility thanks you, your landlord (mom), doesn't. |
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 5% range trading is fun |
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Winklevii outmaneuvered again. It just won't stop.
itbit's chartered trust route was pretty shrewd. Looks like they're paying off the right contacts with board seats. Anybody trade there? Looks like their volume is at 4k btc today?
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I saw one firm bidding is citadel. I believe they have 19 billion under management. That's pretty big I'd say.
The bids you see are firms placing orders on behalf of their customers and partners who use their services to execute orders. They may also act in a market making role, placing both bids and asks and making money on the spread. You definitely don't want to assume that these bids are the individual firms taking long term investment positions for themselves. It's not impossible, but highly improbable. |
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He be chillin. Waiting to short from $3500.  Ah, a man of leisure. A day on the water is a day well spent. Bulls of 2014 can do it too.  |
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No need to worry bears. Double digits right around the corner. Chinese wash volume, grumble, grumble. Where's Tarmi?  |
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Nice little jolt of volume today, asks getting more "reasonable", all good. Now if you BIT hodlers can add another digit to that volume this thing will start having some real relevance.
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So there's 1,394,600 outstanding shares at the end of April. Being overly conservative, let's say 50% of those are held for 12 months or more, so 697,000 shares able to be sold as GBTC. So far only ~1500 shares have have been sold OTC, or 0.2% of BIT shares owned by hodlers are willing to sell at the equiv of $650/btc... These guys take "strong hands" to a whole 'nother level.
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You are right ^^...well i think it is possible and if we break 262-265 its possible we would start finally new bull trend...but we will see...it depends when whales and market manipulators will decide if the new bull trend should start  but i find kind of interesting that btc-e is not higher than all other exchanges...i remember it was almost always lower...any thoughts about this? I'm not an expert trader mate. If I'm honest I've never sold anything, I just buy & HODL. Bitcoin is a long term investment for me, I'm not looking for small, short term profits. I've just got my fingers crossed, hoping for maybe 5,000 USD per coin one day then it's party time. Isn't this just the "bagholder waiting for a greater fool" mantra? I mean global, non-state, algorithmically controlled means of wealth storage and transfer... and you just hope for a quick 20 bagger to go party? The state may have the power to go after the bad actors, but Bitcoin makes it far more difficult, because pseudonymity. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin transactions are not linked to identities - only addys. Paper cash. The state also has no real interest in maintaining a semblance of order & respectability in a pseudocurrency meant to unseat the state-backed money. It has great interest in maintaining the value of the currency it issues. Bitcoin's value? Not so much It was not requested nor desired from the beginning. No mechanism for self-governance(?); no incentive for state to help; more difficult to enforce even if the incentive was there. Again, designed that way. |
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Lamb is risen... and he's PISSED.  Healthy bid side on ze finex. |
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dump time  1 Million USD worth of shorts got closed on finex:  I like seeing these closed at low prices Agreed. Bulls cutting margin risk after GBTC landed without a jump. Much better than them going up to counter significant real selling pressure. |
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Looks like the recent dumpage kicked off on okcoin, finex reacting strongly.  |
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From the 2014 Annual Report published last month: Authorized Participants who make deposits of bitcoins with the Trust in exchange for Creation
Baskets receive no fees, commissions or other form of compensation or inducement of any kind
from either the Sponsor or the Trust. No Authorized Participant has any obligation or
responsibility to the Sponsor or the Trust to affect any sale or resale of Shares. Authorized
Participants may realize significant profits buying, selling, creating and redeeming Shares as a
result of changes in the value of Shares or bitcoins. In particular, an Authorized Participant may
profit from the “spread” (or difference) between the prices at which it purchases and sells Shares
and bitcoins (or obtains Shares or bitcoins through the creation and redemption of Baskets). For
example, when creating Shares, an Authorized Participant may deposit bitcoins with the Trust that
it has acquired at a price that is lower than the current Bitcoin Market Price and thus receive Shares
with a value greater than the Authorized Participant’s cost of acquiring the deposited bitcoins.
Similarly, an Authorized Participant may sell Shares to a customer from its inventory at a price
higher than the Authorized Participant’s cost in acquiring such Shares. As another example, when
redeeming Shares, an Authorized Participant may receive bitcoins and then hold them for later
resale at a profit if the price of bitcoins increases. The frequent and significant fluctuations in the
price of bitcoins increases the extent to which an Authorized Participant may profit from its
transactions in Shares and bitcoins. As of the date of this Annual Report, the only Authorized
Participant is SecondMarket, Inc., an affiliate of the Sponsor.
SponsorGrayscale Investments LLC CustodianSecondMarket Holdings The Only Current Authorized Participant SecondMarket, Inc The main question for me: Is it is possible for SecondMarket, Inc to receive creation baskets of shares and place them for sale on the OTC market without the 12 month lockup? If yes, SecondMarket could quickly arbitrage the OTC share price closer to the NAV of the trust while providing liquidity that the OTC share needs at this point. If no, the ask supply of the OTC share will be completely dependent on 12 month aged shares from individual investors. Meaning very low volume and little impact on the bitcoin market in general, at least for the reasonably near future. Care to comment Barry? I won't hold my breath. |
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A small example, I use a few kW of bitmain miners every winter lately(sept-may). Even at break even (about $205) for me, I am harvesting the "waste" heat, offsetting non-negligible fuel costs. Selling the hardware when temps dictate I would need AC to cool them, and yes there is a market for nearly outdated used gear.
The big industrial farms are at a disadvantage compared to these kind of uses, which is offset by scale usually, but they still exist.
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Hold on to your butts folks, and prepare to short the overreaction if you're feeling randy.
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And the number halves in 2016 to 12.5 btc per block. Participants will come and go, adding hashrate and subtracting it to reach economic equilibrium, we know you know this prof.
The only danger is a precipitous drop in hashrate, leading to impossibly long confirmation times and a backed up cache of transactions. Until we hit the adjustment block.
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