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1661  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 30, 2020, 04:03:11 PM
This thread has a lot of anecdotal information and you make many references to the world of gambling that a new person would find not identify. I get that someone will need to actually be immersed into it to get all the references. My question was aimed at getting a bird's eye view of what the "Gambling world" is like. How would you describe it to someone in a way that they can decide if it is for them or not, the triumphs and the tribulations?

Hmm, ok, I can maybe talk a bit about how a normal day (of betting) looks for me. Not all days are the same. Beginning of the week, there is not a lot to do for me normally or only in the evenings, when I can actually watch some sports. So lets take a Saturday maybe, which is always the most busy day. I am a night person, so would get up rather late without any alarm being set. I would have breakfast and some tea/coffee and go through my mornings internet routine. Like checking mails, checking some general news, this and that. At 1pm the games for second division football in Germany start, so I would watch the pre-coverage starting at 12:30pm and check the line-ups, check the latest odds. In my mind I already know, what I will look for in these games and what I will do if X or Y happens. So from 1pm I will be watching the matches and see, if there is some opportunity to get in. Games finish 2:45pm and I will switch to pre-coverage for Bundesliga then, check the line-ups etc. Those games start at 3:30pm and finish 5:15pm and I will look to get some food afterwards - waiting for 6:30pm game in Bundesliga. This late game in Bundesliga is often times not very interesting to me (Bayern, Leipzig, Dortmund playing some scrubs), so my attention turns more to german Basketball, where you have games at 6:30 and 8:30pm on Saturdays normally. Basketball I can only stream and not watch on TV. There is a ~30sec delay with this stream, so I have to adapt my trading accordingly. Trading german Basketball on Betfair is pretty pointless though, since there is next to no liquidity and I don't feel comfortable with this 30sec delay anyway. So I will wait for a time-out or half-time to take some action if any (this is more of a punt at a bookmaker then).

During american College Football season, I would have some game running on TV after the late Bundesliga game has finished and which is normally running muted on TV while I focus on Basketball. The Basketball matches finish at around 10:30pm. The last weekends I would then watch some NFL playoffs. I am not betting on NFL with the intention or the hope of making money, I just do it for fun to add some spice while watching. The NFL is my big love and I watch as many games as possible, but I am not able to bet on it profitably, so I see my bets on NFL games just as a hobby and don't care too much about winning or losing. Stakes are pretty low there too then.

During all the time, there is always some distraction with mails arriving, talking to my fellow punters, phone calls and whatever, so it can get quite chaotic and hectic. I should probably shut down all things that could get me distracted, but I never chose to do so. Watching a match of football can be very boring at times, so some distraction is maybe welcomed deep inside of me, I don't know.

After I finished betting for the day, I will eat something. Then go away from the computer and go to some supermarket, for a walk or just watch some TV (no sports then!), meet with friends or family (those that are maybe still awake^^) and do what other people do as well in their spare time and then go to bed.

On contrary on a day like today, there really isn't much to do for me betting wise. I am wating for the german second division football match today, which starts 8:30pm, where I will monitor what is happening and maybe do something inplay. Other than that, there is nothing to do today.
1662  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 30, 2020, 03:09:35 PM
If you were telling the truth, I've never imagined meeting someone who gambles for 15 years and survives. I used to look for some since my family was victims of unwise gambling. I would love to hear your story by answering these questions I will address. In 15 years, I know when you were getting started of course you were a newbie.

Nevertheless, I have a few questions. How did you do it? How did you master gambling? Did you find a mentor who taught you how to play the games? Or did you learn your strategies all by yourself? How long did it take for you to be able to master the games you play? Did it take a short single year or it took you more than a year? Can you be specific? Did you ever lose? How often did you lose when you were getting started and still mastering your craft? Did you invest a massive amount of risk for you to attain your gambling skills?

All of these questions have been answered already one way or the other and I don't like to repeat myself too much. So, if you are interested in the answers to your questions, make yourself a coffee or grab a beer and just read through this thread from the beginning.

I will already answer one question of you right here:

Did you ever lose?

Yes. Without having any stats to back it up, I think I have lost more bets than I actually won Wink
1663  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][ICO] XAYA 🌟True Blockchain Gaming 🌟 - Human Mining - Decentralised Games on: January 30, 2020, 02:52:03 PM
Are there any plans to implement masternodes for Xaya?

This is not planned and I doubt there will be any reason to implement it in the future. But you never know of course.
1664  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 30, 2020, 02:48:43 PM
You are saying in the OP, "I am doing this since around 15 years", but since I don't know your age, I can't determine for how long you've been in this business actually.

The thing is that I'm a poker player myself, not professional, but I love Texas Hold'em, and I play this game a lot(I'm in total profit of about 0.15 BTC from 3 years of playing). And I have a theory, that anyone who knows the rules of the game and also has the knowledge of the basic concepts of probability, can be in profit for 2-3 years in a row just because of luck. I came up with this theory not because of my personal experience, but rather after reading and watching videos about famous poker players. Tom Dwan, for example, was losing millions of USD within a particular year, and not just once.

What are your thoughts on that?

I went pro, or tried to, after maybe half a year of losing and saying to myself I either up my game and start winning or quit. So I am betting for around 15,5 years.

If you are playing profitable for 2-3 years in a row, you are not lucky, but have developed some skill to beat the tables. You can't be just lucky for 2-3 years winning with poker. You know, the good thing in poker, and what is quite contrary to betting, is, that you don't always have to compete with the best of the best. In poker you can choose your limit that fits your skills and what you are comfortable with. You can play small stakes and take money from a lot of donks. When you rise up the limits, it will get harder to make some money and you are probably the donk then Grin If you play high-stakes poker with small stakes skills, you will probably have to file for bankruptcy very soon.

In betting you will always have to compete with the best of the best. There are no markets for newbies or not so skilled people. You compete with all the sharks right from the get go.

With all those rich poker players losing millions or even going broke at some point, this is for various reasons I think. The playing style of Tom Dwan is pretty reckless to say the least. So some variance is very much expected with him. And poker players often go through rough stretches, where they are just not able to play their A game for a long time. But if you win $10m over a few years and then lose $3m in one year, it's not that bad of an average income I think Wink And it's something you have to deal with mentally, work your way through this, maybe do some additional theory and not go on tilt. Believe in your abilities and always try to improve. Not improving is deadly.
These very good poker pros often earn lots of money at a very young age and this might be a bit overwhelming for them and not healthy. They never learned to value money and that it's hard work earning it for normal people. And they think that they can make millions playing poker forever. So they get a bit careless and cocky I think. Every good businessman went broke at least once earlier in his career they say Wink
1665  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 30, 2020, 02:13:09 PM
Moreover, I have always been saying something to that tune myself, that even with dice where you have to play against the house edge (read, you are more or less set to lose in the end), you can build pretty safe or even fail-safe strategies that allow you play indefinitely long without busting (for the inquiring minds, see here), though your profits will be tiny compared to the capital required to implement these strategies in practice (read, it may simply be not worth it)

You would also need an infinite bank to be on the safe side of things. Sure, Martingale works to a certain extent, but for it to be a sure thing to make money without any risk involved, you would have to have infinite money and no one has that. And even if you had, you would have to find a casino/bookmaker that lets you stake infinite money on a single dice/bet. And to my knowledge such casino/bookmaker doesn't exist.
The problem with Martingale is, that it might work very well for some time and smallish-profits. But sooner or later, you will get to the point, where you would have to invest a huge amount of money - just to get all your losses back and make like 1 cent profit. This is not good for your health Wink


But that's not why I'm posting here. Apart from sports betting, you seem to refer to trading as an activity you are currently involved in. So I'm interested in your honest reply, i.e. do you consider trading (whatever variety you stick to) as more profitable than gambling in the long run? I don't mean sudden bursts of luck but more like a regular source of income over years? Isn't trading less heavy on you personally given you have been in the game for so long?

Me, I consider trading (I mean cryptocurrency trading first and foremost) a type of gambling in its own right, even with a house edge of sorts (more specifically, the advantage that exchanges, insiders, arbitrageurs and their likes have before regular traders). However, it seems like many people are turning to trading eventually as they come to see it less psychologically demanding than gambling (stress and all that stuff)

First of all I would consider trading a discipline in this whole realm of gambling/investing. So I am having trouble to compare trading and gambling, as trading is part of gambling in my view.

To stay on topic to your question, I would maybe consider comparing trading and punting (placing a bet pre-match and just waiting for the outcome). Punting takes place in a more or less fixed/set market with most circumstances and parameters standing still. There is not much happening pre-match. The stats are known, the news are known, injured players are known, all those things. And the bookmakers/markets have learned a lot and not much value can be found in this situation.

Now with the match starting and the markets going inplay, things get dynamic and the fixed setting from pre-match is broken up. Things happen very fast and there is a lot of imperfections in the market. There is not enough time to take all the different parameters into account, so it's easier to find valuable spots trading inplay - or lets say there is more value to be found, to actually spot it, is quite difficult.

In regards to crypto trading, you could think about a market moving sideways for very long, like we often saw in recent months. Not much value to be found (short-term), no big gains to be expected from trading. Now imagine a sudden jump of +10%, things are getting crazy then and there is lots of good trading options opening up. But you have to be fast and have no time to calculate and weigh for ages. You have to prepare beforehand. Like a sniper. He lies there for hours and hours and is well prepared. He knows he will have to pull the trigger, but he does not know when and always has to remain alert. Once the opportunity arises, he has to act fast. There is probably only a short time window.

Trading/gambling/punting all have their own, but pretty similar, psychological demands, so I wouldn't claim trading to be less demanding in that regard and people turning to trading because of that. With trading it's a bit easier to make money, if you are good in doing it. But you will also lose a lot more, if you are bad at it Wink
1666  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 30, 2020, 01:34:57 PM
Interesting to read some of these. My question for you is, how do you suggest a person approaches gambling when it is culturally frowned upon and also not legal in their country. Should they just do it in silence?

Generally speaking I wouldn't care about what other people expect from you. This is your life, so you should do with it whatever you like - it can be over any day. Don't please expectations of others, because you have to live this life, not the others. Now this is often not as easy as it sounds. I am living in a country, where culture (which often stems from religious stuff) isn't really an issue. So I have never experienced rejection for cultural reasons and can't really judge what it means, how it feels and what are the consequences of being a sinner Wink

With gambling not being legal, this is another issue. You would have to weigh, what there is to gain and what there is to lose/risk. Nowadays you can find workarounds for a lot of legal domestic issues, when it comes to gambling. So, if there is not much punishment, if/when they catch you, why not give it a try, if you would like to do that and earn some money from it. Gambling is officially forbidden in China as well (or controlled by CPC), but my chinese friend is still doing his betting more or less freely. There is always a way, if you are really dedicated.

How do you explain to people what you do? Knowing it can get you or even your family in trouble.

Me and my family fortunately won't get into (legal) trouble for what I am doing. Betting is considered a game of luck in Germany and thus is no taxable income - looks like I have a lot of luck with my bets Wink Betting is not legal nor illegal here, it's still a grey area. I spoke about the other question here:

It took a long time until I told my parents what exactly I am doing and that I wanted to do this longterm as a profession. You know parents are parents and they always want the best for their kids. This is my life and I am not trying to please people and fit into their schemes. I have to live this life and I have the right to shape it like I want and the way I think it is a good/fun life.
They were ok with it, since they saw it made me happy and that I could live from it. They always trusted me a lot, but deep inside I know, that they would have been happier seeing me working in some more fancy job, like in a bank for example. Parents always like to brag a bit with their offspring, but if your son is gambling for a living, this is a bit hard to do. Most people don’t understand what this is all about, don’t know that such jobs exist and in the end are not interested anyway.

From my friends I had at least no negative reactions. Most were like, yeah, just do what you’re doing. But my closer friends always found it pretty cool and showed interest, being curious, asking questions – and also wanted to give me money to bet with it for them and make them some money too. But I never took money from anyone. Putting your own money at stake is already enough pressure, so no need to put other peoples money at risk too.

Being asked what I am working, I either tell right away what I am doing or just say I am a freelancer. It depends a bit on who is in front of me. I was more cautious in the past with telling what I really do, but these days I don’t care that much no more.
Especially the older generation isn’t aware that there is lots of possibilities to work online/from home today. The internet opened up a lot of online jobs and this is a completely secret and mysterious world for older people. So with older people I tend to tell something they understand better just to not being forced to explain it all to them.
1667  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] 🔥🎲Luckydice.com Signature Campaign🎲🔥 - ⭐ Senior, Hero & Legendary ⭐ on: January 30, 2020, 12:45:13 PM
can you please inform when weeks start and finish?
(if possible to add to the spreadsheet that would help a lot on organization)
thanks a ton!

Please check the OP.
1668  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 30, 2020, 12:01:10 PM
I've recently met a few people such as yourself from the Poker community and must say it's been eye opening to say the least. On top of that I followed a youtuber for a few months and just the free information he put out in the world through his content motivated me to buy some of his training materials. I realized that he was giving away a good portion of it for free, if you put in hours of watching and focusing on his channel, but went much more in-depth and in a focused manner through the paid material. Though it was well worth it to support his business after the freebies I got, and couldn't be happier.
I've also been getting an absurd amount of personal reviews done by a few individuals which is huge. Most people out there want a cut or a piece of everything you make for anything they share with you. I can understand it to some point but as someone who personally likes helping people with my knowledge when I can, it's nice to receive that same assistance from others.

People always wonder, how to make a living out of betting/poker and think of a well kept secret in a taciturn community, but it's not like that. The answer is always value (or EV+ for the poker players). When I get asked, what is the secret, what is your system, how do you do that and I then tell them it's just the value aspect, they are always kind of disappointed Cheesy They often expect to be given a very precise answer, like do this and that and then you'll be successful, but I can only can give the very unspecific answer of value and I can just guide them on how to maybe find value and give them some tools. But they have to go their own way and take a path they are comfortable with. And if they just want to be given a money printing recipe on a silver platter, they are likely kind of lazy (or naive for that matter) and it doesn't work like that. You experienced yourself how much work, dedication, effort it takes to get things going. If you are not willing to learn and put in all the hours, you are doomed to fail. But we all fail - often and a lot and it's a good thing.

I am always willing to share my knowledge and experiences - and I really like to talk about betting - if I feel a genuine interest and people always seem fascinated by a, what it looks for them, shiny world. But it’s hard work and a pretty normal job in the end. It’s just a rather rare job, which most people fail to do, but would like to do. And as stated in the OP, there is lots of myths and misconceptions. Being a poker/betting pro is pretty similar to be being a stockbrocker for example and even insurance companies just do betting in the end; they calculate the probability of a claim and put their premiums accordingly. They just bet how likely it will be you dying, having a car accident or your house catching fire. And they are pretty good bettors considering how filthy rich all these insurance companies are.

I was reading on your evolution from cycling and winter sports due to the action not being as good. How heavily do you rely on your friends/common interest gamblers to find the next niche you want to focus on?

My cycling niche I "found" on my own, since I was always interested in it even when I didn't know betting yet. A pro friend of mine, who I got to know in the beginning of my "career", then introduced me to winter sports and taught me a lot of things about the dynamics in the different winter sport competitions.
Finding new niches is not really about actively looking for it, they are often found by coincidence. You read something, which gets you interested, you watch some sports you have never really cared about and find some angle, you are given a bet by a fellow punter and get interested in the sports while following the bet, things like that. But you have to like your niche and have some joy following it. For example a lot of pros are involved with horse racing and a lot of money can be made there. I had a look, invested a bit of time, even tried a bit, but it's not mine, because I don't like horse racing. No need to force things that just aren't there.

For the moment I don't really have a niche. When saying niche, I am refering to some smallish and/or non-mainstream sport/league. The last years, I was always kind of searching for a new niche I could cover, but as explained above, it doesn't really work like that (maybe only for me, not sure). You could consider german Basketball as kind of a niche, but it's a pretty mature and well compiled market these days too. And you only have a few games on the weekends always.

The reason why I am not desperately looking for a niche now, is the issues with my betting accounts. For a niche, you need some non-limited, non-taxed accounts with soft books and I don't have those no more. So even if I found a niche again, I probably couldn't bet on it properly. That is why I shifted my focus more on trading and getting my feet wet in the bigger markets with it. This is a longterm decision, since I don't see any future for me in the niche markets. Niches only last so long and there isn't infinite sports/leagues to regularly have niches open up. The markets mature pretty fast these days.

Friend of mine is doing Chinese basketball as a niche. When betting was available for this league, it was pretty easy for him to make money there. It wasn't very well covered internationally and he is Chinese, so no language barrier. He was able to collect lots of valuable information and knew things only a few people knew. The CBA wants to become the NBA of Asia and they have lots of money available for that. They have a NBA-like schedule and some really good and famous import players, so there is way more coverage now. Today my friend is struggling a lot more in extracting value there. There is now a lot of stats available, lots of news to be found and even all those strange extra rules they have for CBA (foreign players are not allowed to play all the time etc.) are publicly known now. His edge is way lower now. And if the CBA gets really big, he might lose his edge completely and the niche stops being a niche to him. He would have to look for a new niche then. But the possiblities are endless in China as we all know Wink

Seeing as you started out while being a student, did you/do you have a decent fallback plan if your gambling career is no longer profitable?

I am pretty well educated, at least on paper Grin, so that was kind of a fallback plan and my ticket into the regular labour market. Before I went to university I completed an apprenticeship and was offered a job to work for that company. But I declined that offer, since during this apprenticeship I felt that this isn't what I wanted to do in life - a 9-5 job. So I decided to go studying to buy some time and think a bit more what I wanted to do in life and what are the options. Well, I just drifted with my studying and wasn't really interested in all this theoretical stuff and listening to 90min monologues. So I mainly skipped my classes and decided that all this could be learned from home as well. And then somewhere during that time I got to know the betting world and found something that I really liked to do and where I could earn good money with. I was about to cancel my studies just 1 year before I would have gotten my diploma, but decided to go through with it and get this piece of paper for my CV. Funnily I managed to get my diploma with a rather good grade, regarding the effort (read: non-effort) I put in. So my apprenticeship and diploma were my fallback plans, without me really wanting to get such a regular job ever. By now, I would guess that these pieces of paper are not useful anymore, since I am too long "without a job", so if I fail with my betting, I would probably have to work in some low paying and pretty basic job (or open a paid tipster service^^).

I don't consider the Sig campaign to fall into that category.

I am not getting paid for wearing the sig Wink



@sunsilk
Thank you, my pleasure.
1669  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🏈🏈 The Essential NFL Thread 🏈🏈 - new poll every week on: January 30, 2020, 12:20:16 AM
Sportsbet.io have a new promo with decent rewards and min stake (only 0.1 mɃ) for the Super Bowl on Sunday.
I don't see it being posted on the forum yet but timing is very important and decided to give you guys a heads up.

It's a great promo I think and I have some hopes of winning at least 10mBTC Cheesy Those odds (1,01 - 1,01) are hilarious though, but I guess it's not about actually winning that parlay, which seems impossible anyway.

Bolded my guesses:

  • Coin Toss Winner   Chiefs / 49ers
  • First 1st Down   Chiefs / 49ers
  • First Scoring Method   Touchdown / Field Goal / Other
  • First Touchdown Scorer Jersey Number   Over 26.5 / Under 26.5 / None
  • First Team to Call the Time Out   Chiefs / 49ers
  • Team Scoring First to Win the Match   Yes / No
  • Super Bowl Winner   Chiefs / 49ers
  • Total   Over 53.5 / Under 53.5
  • Any Player to Score Multiple Touchdowns   Yes / No
  • Total Interceptions in the Match   Over 1.5 / Under 1.5
  • Missed Field Goal in the Match?   Yes / No
  • Longest Field Goal Scored   Over 47.5 / Under 47.5 / None
  • Total Touchdowns in the Match   Over 6.5 / Under 6.5 / None
  • P. Mahomes Total Passing Yards   Over 300.5 / Under 300.5
  • Last Team to Score   Chiefs / 49ers

Not very confident with the first TD scorer jersey number though, should have probably picked under there. There is not a lot of guys with jersey number 27+ that can actually score a TD (Kittle 85, Juszczyk 44, Mostert 31, Kelce 87). The WR's, other RB's and QB's all have lower numbers. Will probably need some help with a defensive TD from some LB/DE/DT for that one.

But will be some fun tracking all this on Sunday. Good luck for those who join.
1670  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 29, 2020, 11:31:10 PM
I forgot the question that I'm about to ask you yesterday but it goes something like this. What can you say about those paid tipsters? those gamblers that are asking for payment with their insights and insiders?

I think it's a good question because we've been seeing those kind of tipsters here in the forum before and probably in the future, more of them will come. Do you have anything to say for those people that wants to avail it or try it? honestly, I'm not asking this for myself but in general because it is what I see.

Yes, it's a good question and I actually can share a bit of my own experience as I was subscribed to two of them as well once. That was in maybe 2007/2008 and I didn't monitor the paid tipster market afterwards, so my own experiences are probably a bit outdated.

Generally speaking I wouldn't advise against subscribing, but you have to be careful. There surely are some scammers amongst them and from my experience these services are doing good for some time and then fade. The services I used were quite successful for maybe 3-4 months (I joined relatively early after they started) and after that they barely managed to get break even and then went on tilt and were chasing losses. Subsequently they ceased operations then.

The people that offer these services often have a good (publicly trackable) stretch and then decide to milk some money out of it by opening a service. It's nothing to condemn, but you have to be aware of that. It's something you can jump on while it lasts, but with the first signs of things going the wrong way, I would exit.

The main point from people against these services is always: "Why would you sell a working system, this must be scam." But these paid tipsters don't sell a system, they sell their value bets and there is no system behind it. If you are able to find valuable bets in liquid markets, it's fine to sell them as you will make some additional money with it. Selling your bets from small markets is something you shouldn't do though. You will a) destroy those markets that make you money and b) nearly none of your subscribers will be able to follow your bets with the same odds and thus will lose money.

There is/was a user in a german-austrian betting forum, that used to be the best punter I ever saw publishing his bets. He was mainly playing Basketball bets from smaller markets. The moment he published his bets in the forum, you could see the odds drop real-time. He maybe recommended a bet on team A for 2,20 odds and in a heartbeat, those odds were brought down to like 1,50. All those guys being able to catch that bet above 2,00 are probably fine, but if you follow a 2,20 bet with 1,60, you will lose longterm - no matter how good that punter is.

If someone has a proven record over a good amount of time (several months and frequent bets), there is nothing bad in subscribing to such a service, if it's not too expensive and breaks your bank just for the fee Wink

-

There is an Australian guy who started a journey to make money with just following tipsters. He had no real idea about betting and/or wasn't a succesful punter, but had some money available. So he subscribed to some services and placed shitloads of bets every day, with the goal to make $25 a day. He used to be subscribed to like 10 services iirc., but nowadays he only keeps on following the bets from one of them. The other ~9 weren't successfull anymore after some time/years. He is transparent like no one else with his finances and bets, his wins and losses (and his weight Cheesy)



He is also doing lots of other things too that give him passive income, and he is a pretty funny and smart guy.

You can check out his blog here, if you are interested: https://www.daily25.com/ (again I am not making any money by mentioning his blog here)
1671  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 29, 2020, 06:16:45 PM
I just read poker in the OP I guess I'll ask things in regards to it.

1. Do you believe that your hands are just pure luck or it really has to do with strategy or involving math skills?
2. Which one you make money a lot easier is it from poker or from trading (feels like I'll include this to make some comparison)?

I don't play poker for a living and never did, but I thought about it. I said in the OP, that poker is the only gambling game apart from betting, where you can make money longterm. So to answer your question, I make more money with betting/trading Smiley In general, you can make good money with both, it depends a bit on your personal preferences and abilites, which one fits you better.

Your poker hands are just pure luck short-term of course. But over a big enough sample size you should be dealt the exact same cards as all your fellow players, so we have a level playing field. The question is, what you do with your hands and how you play them. That is where the math comes in play and the ability to read your opponent.

Great thread to read as my first one coming into the Gambling section. Being a professional gambler yourself, I am sure you have dipped hands into almost everything from dice games, poker to slots, maybe in both the online as well as real-world casino format. So here is my question.

How would you describe to someone about the world of gambling including its value as entertainment as well as a source of income, like in your case.

PS: You described the sports betting and your strategy towards it in one of the answers. It seems a big part of it is actually watching a lot of sports. So, Watching sports and then earning money off of it, you have done quite well..

Actually I only ever invested lots of time in betting. For poker I read some books and played a bit with small-ish stakes, but not my game in the end. Never played dice, and slots only, when I got some free spins from bookmakers. I was in a real life Casino only once and don't think I will go there very often in the future.

Your second question is a bit unspecific, so I am having trouble to understand what you would like to hear. I already wrote a lot about intentions, how it all started, about the fun/money relation and all those things. Maybe scroll a bit through this thread and see if that answers your question. If not, just come back Wink



This is a bit off-topic, but everyone who is fascinated by the "world of betting" and likes to read a bit, should have a look at "Game, Set, Cash!: Inside the Secret World of International Tennis Trading" from Brad Hutchinson. It's about courtsiding in Tennis and taking advantage of time delays in TV broadcasts. It's an easy to read and understand book with a lot of fun stories of a young man getting paid to travel the world and working for a gambling syndicate.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22226468-game-set-cash

I am not earning any money by mentioning this book here nor do I know Brad. I just recommend it here for interested people, since I have had so much fun reading it (and did so already thrice).
1672  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 29, 2020, 03:45:14 PM
As I see the most of your winnings come from tracking value from the market. Do you manually search for valuebets or do you use some special software to do so?
As you also mentioned currently your mostly are betting on exchanges. Do you really bet (gamble) on the exchange or do you rather trade on those exchanges?

I know my leagues/sports I am covering so have "my" odds in mind for the matches. When the first odds come out, I will have a look and can compare, where I have a different opinion and what probably has some value. And everybody can do it more or less, the good punters/traders just can do it better.

Lets say we have Liverpool playing Watford at home and you get these odds: 8,71 - 5,62 - 1,33 (1X2). Anyone can see that the odds for Liverpool are insane and most likely have some value. Now this example is of course exaggerated, normally you have smaller "margins" (not sure, if that is the correct word).

In my mind I maybe have odds of 2,0 as a fair price for a certain team. Odds come out and I could get 2,50 for that team. I would place a pre-match bet here then. If the odds were only 2,20, I probably wouldn't place a bet, since I can get better odds inplay. If the odds were 2,0, I would just wait for inplay and see if some opportunities arise. If not, then not, there is enough other matches to bet on.

So, in general, I spot value by just following my sports/leagues, keeping myself informed, think about winning probabilities, make up my own odds and things like that. You can also spot value with doing statistical analyses of course, but this requires some expertise in coding etc and was never my way (apart from the fact that I am not able to code such things Cheesy ). You are most likely working with a lower yield then, but will have huge turnover of course, since your computer just tells you what to do and you can calculate the fair odds for tons of matches and place your bets accordingly. This is a bit bot-ish then and would take lots of fun out for me. But to each his own, as I said there is lots of ways to make money with betting - but the concept of value always applies.

-

Really pure punting I rarely do on the exchange, so my answer would be trading. But what is trading in the end ? It's a pretty wide field. If I place a pre-match bet on Liverpool to win and hedge it after they scored the lead - is that considered trading ? A trade can be backing something and laying it after the odds moved in your favour and never come back. Or I can do gazillion of backs and lays during a tennis match for example. I am not a high frequenzy trader, so I would normally back and lay a bit, wait for higher inplay odds or just react to what is happening in front of me.

I only play pre-match bets, when I see very good value and think that I won't get to see these/higher odds inplay (these bets are often not found on Betfair, but are early odds with bookmakers). But even with these pre-match bets, that were supposed to be a classical punt, I may be  tempted to lay off some liability inplay, if things go my way. I often hedge punts, which is a flaw in my "system". Cut your losses short and let your winners run they say, but I always struggled a bit with that tbh.
1673  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] 🔥🎲Luckydice.com Signature Campaign🎲🔥 - ⭐ Senior, Hero & Legendary ⭐ on: January 29, 2020, 02:10:21 PM
Hello efialtis. Applying for a Sr. Member spot. Thanks:

Username: amishmanish
Post Count: 841
Amount of Merit EARNED in the last 120 Days: 33
BTC Address (must be SegWit): bc1q58fyah8t0k3qz8u66g33ryl3x6d4n809p8hckf

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Current Post Count: 1999
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BTC Address: 3KGj2Pa84RWsReDiJvXgUbMMKNa38o9nBM

will change avatar and sig as soon as possible once accepted.

Accepted, welcome to the campaign.

1 Senior Member spot left.
1674  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: REF - Links (testweise) erlaubt! on: January 29, 2020, 01:24:38 PM
und da habe ich meine lektion gelernt und auf diese aussage könnt ihr mich festnageln: in zukunft gibt es keine solchen entscheidungen mehr ohne davor eine entsprechende umfrage durchgeführt zu haben!

Top mole Smiley Und das war auch die Intention hinter meinem zugegebenermaßen vielleicht etwas hartem Post - dass du ein bisschen food for thought hast.

Falls ich damit übers Ziel hinausgeschossen bin, entschuldige ich mich dafür hier öffentlich bei dir.
1675  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 29, 2020, 01:12:08 PM
Thank you for answering. I would also like to ask are you following or have a set of principles or discipline that you stick with when you gamble, or do you sometimes or most of the times bet randomly on events or sports avalaible you are familiar with? Would you consider your self gambling addicted? No offense meant, I am just curious.  Grin

My main principles are sticking to my money management, focusing on single bets and staying with the sports/leagues where I have an edge; or think I have. This leads to discipline, if you follow those rules; which is probably hard for a lot of people, since no one monitors and you can just break the rules without any consequences but monetary ones. From time to time I do some fun bets in other sports, bigger parlays or system bets. I am just human and like to have some gambles as well - my normal/pro betting I would phrase investing (in good odds) rather than gambling.

Your second quesiton was already answere here:

I often asked myself the question, if am addicted to gambling. In the past I tended to say probably yes. But I never bothered with being addicted, since it was kind of good addiction to me – I was making money with it and didn’t feel like I ticked a lot of boxes that come with a gambling addiction.

Nowadays I can clearly say, that I am not addicted. I have no problem being without gambling for some time and I am not missing it in these times. I probably have already gambled too much in all those years, so there seems to be some saturation Grin But I always get back to gambling, since I have to make some money as well of course.



Did you ever try to quit and stop yourself from gambling because you have lost most of your capital and assets? How did you handle your downfalls in gambling? We all know that gambling isn't all about winning and sometimes, losing leads us to disappointments, how did you surpass those stages?

Why should I stop with something that brings me joy and money ? Wink

There were losing stretches, but you should always think longterm, variance happens. My first losing month came after 3.5 years of betting and it even was two losing months in a row with quite some losses. Was hard to digest at first, but I looked at the big picture. I had won amount X during all those years and now I have lost 10% of that, no big deal and it was expected to happen at some point.  I was still confident with my abilities and trusted my system. Took my foot off the gas a bit, lowered the stakes and tried to forget about what happened and have a fresh start. It worked and it took a long time for the next losing month to appear on my spreadsheet again.



I never thought that someone would take gambling for a living. You're quite a different man. Well, living is a gamble in the first place, isn't it? Anyway, what made you decide to take gambling as a source of income? And do you let a day having no gain? Or you won't stand up unless you lose? Do you have any long term plan? Like conducting a small business for you to generate passive income? And what it takes to be a professional gambler? Sorry for loads of questions, man 'cause I find your life interesting, and I have more question I just can't say it right now. Thank you in advance, appreciated.

That are indeed a lot of questions Grin

Some of them I already answered more or less earlier, let me get some quotes for you:

It kind of fell into my lap as explained earlier. I was making good money with betting, more than a regular job in modern slavery would have given me at that time, so why work for less money and more importantly less fun.

I started betting for fun in first place. By the time I learned that I can actually make money with this and now the fun and making money aspect have merged.

I don't set myself any targets or limits. I play bets whenever I see value (well, sometimes the recreational gambler in me also places some fun bets Grin). This can be 10 bets a day or no bets at all for several days. I don't stop for the day after I have won amount X nor do I stop, when I have lost amount Y. I stop, when there is no bets with value left. So the discipline is to not gamble when there is nothing worth to gamble on.

And I am not thinking in days, but rather in months. Every single betting person, pro or not, will have losing days, losing weeks and losing months. I have had a few losing months, but never a losing year. I was never the person to chase losses or go on tilt, I just tried to keep going and do solid work (yes, this is hard work). So discipline has never been an issue for me, but it is for many people. If you lack discipline and lose your mind easily, you will have a hard time in this business.

I don't have any long term plans betting wise. It's a very fast business and what works today might not work tomorrow anymore. During recent years it already has become harder and harder to survive in the betting markets and regulatory issues are not helping this case as well. So I don't bank on doing this for eternity, I take it day by day and don't think too much on what will be in 1 year.

I do of course have a private plan or a plan for my life in the future, but this is not something I would want to discuss in public, sorry Wink Generating passive income is always welcomed, but I don't think I will (have to) start a small business for that. There is lots of possibilites to invest your money and generate some income from it.

Let me do some brainstorming for what it takes to be a professional gambler and put it here without any particular order:

Discipline, money management, dedication, cold-bloodedness, some maths, willing to learn, be content with spending a lot of time in front of the computer, mentally stable, accepting losses, working hard and for long hours, being able to adapt, good observer, lots of reading/watching, gut feeling, motivation, don't be greedy and start small.

You don't have to have that all Grin I am lacking in some of those as well, but if you lack the majority, you should better not think about going pro. Being a pro isn't always fun and also has quite some disadvantages, but no one asked so far about that, so no need to post it just yet^^



What situations you experienced that almost makes you quit on betting? Ex. Losing streak etc. and how you do overcome it?

Longer losing streaks of course always make you kind of think of that. See the second question in this post and how to overcome it or how I do it normally.

The thing that always makes the think about quitting and what will probably make me quit one day, is the "logistics". German government is coming up with some pretty crazy shit all the time to bully gambling people. As a result I am pretty tight on betting accounts nowadays. And without a good and somewhat big bookmaker portfolio, things are getting complicated. I am running out of accounts because the german government wants to get their share of taxes from the bookmakers smokescreening it with "player protection". So lots of geo restrictions are in place, some bookmakers tax me as a resident of Germany and I am blocked by a lot of bookmakers.

That is why I was shifting my focus more on Betfair trading in recent times, as Betfair is a place where you can do your business without too many inconveniences. But I can't access Betfair (Exchange) from Germany, so had to go via an agents account. Betfair decided to close those agent accounts in December, and as a result I don't have a Betfair account now no more. Only have this white-label Orbit account. They have no API and thus no betting software can be used. Trading without software on a pretty laggy site like Orbit is kind of weary.

These surrounding logistics are really a nightmare and annoying Grin

1676  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] 🔥🎲Luckydice.com Signature Campaign🎲🔥 - ⭐ Senior, Hero & Legendary ⭐ on: January 29, 2020, 11:08:44 AM
Hello. I would like to apply and be active once again.

Bitcointalk Name: inthelongrun
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BTC Address: 39pg8HNFY7xGPXAeBCfrqfh4zyconizTQa

I will wear signature, personal text and avatar when accepted.

Bitcointalk Name: Sadlife
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BTC Address: Will update avatar/sig/address if accepted

Bitcointalk Name: lucasgabd
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BTC Address: bc1qqvn32t9kw0eqe8plp56vua2szn0n0f9plf9qnx

I'm interested in joining this campaign
will change if accepted.

Bitcointalk Name: blckhawk
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I will update my signature right away once accepted . Thank you !

Bitcointalk Name: qwertyup23
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I have been inactive for a while but I am willing to be active if I were given this opportunity! Hopefully you consider my application!

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Avatar, signature and personal text updated. I would love to be part of your campaign.

All accepted, welcome to the campaign. Please update your stuff.



There is still 1 Hero/Legendary and 2 Sr Member spots open.

1677  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler on: January 29, 2020, 12:20:18 AM
What pushes you to go full time with gambling(poker)?

I went full-time with betting, not poker Wink

It kind of fell into my lap as explained earlier. I was making good money with betting, more than a regular job in modern slavery would have given me at that time, so why work for less money and more importantly less fun.




Do you have a day stable job before that?

Is/was gambling your only profession, or did you have other jobs also?

I never had a regular job, but kept on working in my students job after finishing my studies (I already turned "pro" during my studies):

I used to have a little job, which gave me a small steady income and also paid for my health insurance and things like that. I liked that job, since it put me away from my screens for some hours every week and sort of refreshed my mind. I never liked to spend the whole day in front of the computer, I always looked for some variety, which that job gave me, but also doing some sports, going out, doing this and that. I don't have that job anymore, so I am relying solely on my bets now, which is putting some pressure on I must confess.



Have you considered first on playing dice games and other luck-based one before you do jump on poker?

No, I never was into things like dice games, lucky me Tongue I never had any contact with gambling until I was introduced to betting by a friend (see the story above somewhere, if you are interested).



Seems like a lot of professional poker players end up as traders, since they've already learned to avoid the emotional part of dealing with money.

I'll bet you've tried your hand at trading too.

Yes, good point with those poker pros. Once you understand how markets/tables work, get the dynamics behind it and also are not super dumb when it comes to maths, it's all pretty similar. You have the framework and already went through all the emotional hussle that comes with it. I have seen poker pros go betting pros and vice versa. I have yet to meet people that went from poker/betting pro to trading pro though, but they surely exist (like you).

Actually I only ever traded sports odds and nothing else.



I want to ask few more question/s but I guess it's going to be too much already. I appreciated your answers.

Just ask them. When I find the time, I will answer.
1678  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] 🔥🎲Luckydice.com Signature Campaign🎲🔥 - ⭐ Senior, Hero & Legendary ⭐ on: January 28, 2020, 10:03:01 PM
Bitcointalk Name: Docnaster
Current Post Count: 1012
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Bitcointalk Name: hello_good_sir
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Thank you OP.

Bitcointalk Name: AicecreaME
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BTC Address:


I will update everything that is needed when I'm accepted, cheers.  Wink

Bitcointalk Name: Tytanowy Janusz
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Will update everything if accepted

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Current Post Count: 2351
Amount of Merit EARNED in the last 120 Days: 200+
BTC Address: bc1qzyzc6pwl43as78s92skn39wdcduqq600lf7flq

PS: cancelled application and I'll wait for a future open slot. My current campaign ends at the end of the month (3days times) so can't remove signature immediately I'm accepted. Sorry for the inconveniences.

All accepted, welcome to the campaign. @CryptopreneurBrainboss you can leave your current signature on for the next days and change to Luckydice signature afterwards then.

All accepted users should note, that if you have already put the signature on for your application, please update it again, since there were some minor changes made lately. And don't forget to put Luckydice.com as personal text under your avatar.



Thank you all for your applications so far. All users that have not been accepted yet, but fulfill all the requirements, are still alive Wink It's pretty hard to choose from so many applications and there have been some really solid and good posters applying. But often times they are not posting regularly in gambling boards and the requirement of 10 posts in this very board is hard to meet then (without just spamming).
1679  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] 🔥🎲Luckydice.com Signature Campaign🎲🔥 - ⭐ Senior, Hero & Legendary ⭐ on: January 28, 2020, 06:39:30 PM
04-02-2020: Vacation rule added
1680  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: REF - Links (testweise) erlaubt! on: January 28, 2020, 05:05:59 PM
Wäre es nicht transparanter und demokratischer, wenn man derlei Änderungen erstmal vorab zur Debatte stellt anstatt sie von oben aufzuoktroyieren (wenn auch testweise) ? In einer Gemeinschaft einfach Sachen nach seinem Gusto zu ändern, nur weil man kann, weiss nicht.

Ich finde ref-links überaus nervig und klicke sie aus Prinzip nicht an.

Ohne dir zu nahe treten zu wollen @mole0815, schaut mir das doch sehr nach blindem Aktionismus aus, but who am I to judge.
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