liquidated at a nice profit
you were short so how's that? |
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The chart below is why I think any rallies in the short term are going to be abruptly corrected:  The red line shows the total bitcoin supply - a linear increase. I have adjusted it to fit on the scale of the blue line, which represents the total supply on mtgox. Notice the divergence of the two lines on the right, compared with left when I began recording the datapoints. A large volume of btc is sitting out there somewhere just waiting to be sold. why would you make that assumption? i could just as easily look at that graph and say the diminishing volume at mtgox means less ppl are wanting to sell and call that bullish and thats even with the total supply rising. i for one own a significant amt of bitcoins and am not waiting to sell anything... |
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most buyers here are thinking that if they just get another chance at $2, they promise this time they will buy.
problem is its very difficult to pick the bottom exactly so if you're bullish long term, you might as well buy now. we've already had our double bottom chance come and go.
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The humor isnt my cup of tea put lightly, but the pure bitcoin information parts are great.
Wish there was an edited ( without the sick humor... ) version to send on to people not in the bitcoin community.
First and foremost, thanks for watching. As for the humor, my influences are MadTV, SNL, CollegeHumor, 5SecondFilms, RobotChicken, FamilyGuy, MST3K, Marx Brothers, etc. On top of that, everything we did was ad-libbed so I wasn't expected it all to be comedy gold. As for seriousness, this was just a Christmas Special so it wasn't really supposed to be serious. In the future expect plenty of serious regular shows starting in January, just don't expect me to host them all since serious and me don't mix. There are other hosts for those shows more appropriate for the topics. And for those who really want non-humor, highly dry and boring, there is already a dry and boring bitcoin show out there. Lol Congratulations Matthew. Overall, it was really very well done given your first shot. I'll agree some of the humor esp. that long printed rant toward the end wasn't really necessary but hey, we get what we pay for! You're just demonstrating your beastiality! |
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my bank has said they don't report those large amts to the gov't. i wonder if this is true?
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definitely the cheapest also. $50K for $40= 0.08% fee
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Done. Now Bitcoinica officially provides daily quotes charts. Also, the new pricing algorithm is already running in production after testing against all historical data. Available at: http://charts.bitcoinica.com/Off-topic: The most exciting day since Bitcoinica's launch.  thanks for trying to make it better. not sure it will make a diff in the end and i still won't use your service.  |
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tl;dr bitcoinicas quote algo screws leveraged users I'll start off this post with some full disclosure. I am Patrick from Intersango so take what I have with whatever size grain of salt you would like. I have been warning people against trading on margin in general for a long time now, because the market is really very thin (yes even on MtGox). This post is specifically about the quoted prices on bitcoinica. While they are reasonably close to market rate most of the time they remain in the complete control of bitcoinica. (I'm sure most of you already understand this) They employ an algorithm which is clearly taking into account market velocity VOLATILITY to protect themselves from falling behind the market, I can understand why they do this, really it makes perfect sense from their perspective; however this results in spikes which force liquidations which are really not necessary. I only have detailed information for about 15 days, but if the relatively small amount of data I have shows this behaviour I can only imagine it would be even more clear in a longer data series.  FIXED |
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speaking of brothers, i was able to talk one of my brothers into investing in btc last summer. the other brother probably did altho he hasn't told me as much.
at first, the brother who did invest, spent about 2d of our fishing trip talking about how immoral btc was and how when one worships money they are destined for destitution. he said how Mom and Dad (who have passed away) would have been unhappy with me investing in such a concept and how i was bordering on tax dodging and how he had learned from many years of being a believer in religion that happiness and dedication to family was most important.
i responded by saying that money is just a tool and that nuclear power wasn't inherently bad but ppl are the ones who build bombs with that technology. i said how is btc any different than a suitcase full of USD's shoved under the table to buy drugs. the other brother who plays poker in Vegas with a system and who can consistently win against the house laid those same arguments on me. i then asked him point blank if he paid taxes on his gambling winnings. he said "of course not". i then responded "who's fault is that?", the USD or him? he didn't answer.
i asked them how investing in gold was any less of a method to hoard value away from the reach of gov'ts and banks. my sister, who happens to be the most moral person you can think of, has invested in gold. they didn't answer.
i offered to sell btc to one of them at cost w/o any tx fees. the one brother took me up on it and has held since.
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I said trap, not failure. Interesting you think the two are the same though, they really aren't.
hey if this is your idea of a trap I can live with this Me too, already hit my bids. glad to hear you're buying! |
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I said trap, not failure. Interesting you think the two are the same though, they really aren't.
hey if this is your idea of a trap I can live with this |
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I'm with you, I called it as being a trap and I think I'll be proved right soon.
LOL! lol indeed  Hey if this is your idea of a failure I can live with this |
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i've gotten alot more comfortable talking about Bitcoin at parties. and this is to really wealthy ppl incl a hedge fund manager, a former MS investment banker, real estate agents, oil speculators, a chemical engineer, a money manager for BAC, a Deutche bank bond trader, etc.
It sounds like you're speaking to the right people. My friends are engineers, teachers, retail workers, etc. It's nigh on impossible to explain bitcoin without sounding like a religious preacher or conspiracy nut. I only speak to those people I think understand gold because if they do I think they have a chance at understanding bitcoin |
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i've gotten alot more comfortable talking about Bitcoin at parties. and this is to really wealthy ppl incl a hedge fund manager, a former MS investment banker, real estate agents, oil speculators, a chemical engineer, a money manager for BAC, a Deutche bank bond trader, etc.
i hold one index finger up and say, "you believe in hi tech don't you?", i hold the other index finger up and say "you believe in gold don't you?". i then link my two index fingers together and then say "Bitcoin is digital gold; you need to learn about it". that usually gets their attention.
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its hard putting oneself out on the line day after day esp.
Doc, do you think this is all fun and games for Zhou? Don't you think he's put himself on the line as well? What do you think? Net gain for Bitcoin because of Bitcoinica? Or net loss because of Bitcoinica? yes, Zhou is taking a big risk starting Bitcoinica and i do give him credit for that. and despite my concerns about his biz model he probably is smart enough to adjust with changing conditions. plus he does seem honest and committed to making it work. my only concern is that the market may force him out. we'll see. as an experienced short seller, i must say i've been against the concept of shorting Bitcoin so early in its career. i know how destructive it can be. its too vulnerable at this point and i think shorting has contributed to the excessive downside we've seen. and my concern is not so much from normal short sellers but from the Fed. imagine a scenario where the Fed sets up an acct in the name of JoeBlow1000 and feeds a continuous unending supply of USD's into its acct to fund short positions. they could throw a trilion USD's or more at this if they wanted to stuff Bitcoin just like they've done with gold and silver via JPM and Goldman. and they have no accountability. how would Zhou or any of us know who was behind this? at any rate, i'm pleased to see that Bitcoin has not failed and appears to be turning the corner upwards. so maybe Zhou's leverage will work on the way up just like it did on the way down. |
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He actually gave some good advice on the stock market rally last week, so I do have some respect for him. Too bad for him, but he chickened out on his positions a few days before. I'm too small of a player to be wasting trade fees, plus I didn't see how anything had changed, so I hung in there and made a nice profit.
if you read my blog carefully, i replaced my stock positions with additions to my TBT which did even better. I had caught the majority of the stock rally since the 10/4 bottom if you recall. and it won't be too late to add to stock positions. I do ready your blog carefully and was well aware of where you moved your funds. I'm sorry if I offended you, I didn't mean to call you a chicken. I just get frustrated every now and then with all the "this is not perfect so let's throw it out" talk on these forums. well thanks for reading. its hard putting oneself out on the line day after day esp. when i and everyone around here reads the same stuff like Zerohedge, Mish, etc all of whom are doom and gloomers. one day i'm sure i'll make a complete fool of myself with one of my calls. i actually miss the back and forth dissertation with miscreanity back on the Gold thread i started back in August. at least he kept me on my toes and continuously made me question myself. it was hard work though and i'm a very busy person. we'll see how long i can keep it up. Merry Christmas! |
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if i'm not mistaken aren't those the silhouettes of Matthew and the Korean girl in the video? |
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Pretty nice press lately. Bitcoin is proving that it's not going anywhere, that it's just getting started. This is basically what I've been saying for a long time, now we are starting the slow gradual process of convincing the skeptics.
This process has just started, reading comments from the numerous articles lately lead to the conclusion that even among the tech-minded, a good number of people are still totally clueless of Bitcoin and the revolutionary potential it has.
My own view is more bullish than ever. From a technical price standpoint and most of all, because I love Bitcoin. I want to keep a portion of my wealth as bitcoins. In fact, I decided today that I will increase that portion by a few percentages. I feel it's a good idea right now.
yes, me too. i spent the last week taking a break from my blog to accumulate even more Bitcoin. at these prices how could i not? |
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actually i'm not trying to discourage Zhoutong. i'm trying to warn him about what i feel is a flawed business model which i agree is debatable.
but if mtgox does offer options he WILL be at a significant disadvantage. there is no question about that.
maybe he can adjust but i'm not sure how.
also i feel that by offering shorting in an immature market such as Bitcoin, he has contributed to an artificially suppressed price over the last several months since he's been in biz. its too late to help that but now we're seeing the market compensate in the other direction; UP.
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