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1701  Other / Off-topic / Re: What if... on: August 09, 2011, 05:26:02 AM
This might interest folks out there or might not, I dunno.
This is more geared to sci-fi/gamer nuts but hey, everyone can join in.

If you had to choose between living at the colony in Aliens or living in vault 101, which would you choose and why?

Post your answers below.

MY ANSWER: The Aliens colony because of it's structure and location.

But the music is so good in vault 101. Meat!
1702  Other / Off-topic / Re: Bit Caching on: August 09, 2011, 05:23:42 AM
Claimed. Thanks. You gave way too much info. Try to make it harder next time.

Ahoy!

Katz is on the Kase!
1703  Other / Off-topic / Another shining beacon of US Politics... on: August 09, 2011, 05:22:45 AM
Michele Bachmann is going to abolish the EPA and allow industrial free-for-all...


http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/08/08/290508/michele-bachmann-pledges-to-have-the-epa%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cdoors-locked-and-lights-turned-off%E2%80%9D/

How can someone this fucking dumb become a big-name politician?
1704  Economy / Services / Re: Free Google Music Beta invites on: August 09, 2011, 05:14:10 AM

Awesome, thanks!

e: Donation sent.
1705  Economy / Economics / Re: 8/8/11 and the big "meh" on: August 09, 2011, 05:09:49 AM

Morons are like roaches.  You can step on millions of them but they always come back.



The more you step on, the smarter the average roaches become...if only this is how it worked in irl...


European default still seems much more likely in medium term.

This will spur China to start squawking a bit more about a new reserve currency. Whether or not they actually start selling dollars remains to be seen.

I think what prompted downgrade was not fundamentals (those have always been crappy) but the fact that the political process to get debt ceiling raised was so dysfunctional and default was actually floated as a legitimate possibility.

There is no safe haven at the moment, where are people going to move that much money anyway? Expect a PM pop and $2k target by fall for AU.


A nice thought, but trying to drive the main importer of your goods out of business is not in any way, shape or form what they want to do. As others have said, when the US goes down, it's taking the whole world with it, except for lemonginger in his mountain compound fueled by hippy.
1706  Economy / Services / Re: Free Google Music Beta invites on: August 09, 2011, 04:49:04 AM
PM sent.
1707  Economy / Services / Re: Mining contract. You pick the speed, you pick the price, I let say yey or neigh on: August 09, 2011, 04:48:34 AM
Lemme get this straight...you will keep 300MH/s running for the rest of my life if I pay you $1500 for a year of 2.4GH/s service? All other dodginess aside, have you looked at your power bill? I highly doubt your business model is sustainable.

I highly doubt that you will want to run the 300mhs that long after the year is up. But im willing to gamble on that. I get to bring online more hardware, you get my existing hashing power. Then I sell more, and repeat. Works out pretty well. Even if I only sell a few contracts, everything is payed for and eventually I have 1 machine with 4 5830s running until people grow tired of mining.

I am not trying to be a dick here, but if it's free, why the hell would anyone stop? Even if it was way, waaaaay in the red, it's your problem, not that of the purchaser.
1708  Economy / Lending / Re: [loan] declaration on: August 09, 2011, 04:36:27 AM
not yet

Any word on this?
1709  Economy / Services / Re: Mining contract. You pick the speed, you pick the price, I let say yey or neigh on: August 09, 2011, 04:34:08 AM
Lemme get this straight...you will keep 300MH/s running for the rest of my life if I pay you $1500 for a year of 2.4GH/s service? All other dodginess aside, have you looked at your power bill? I highly doubt your business model is sustainable.
1710  Economy / Speculation / Re: Economic Equilibrium and ROI for Miners on: August 09, 2011, 03:56:40 AM
Electricity price is dictated by the price of gas and coal and a few other materials and the amount of demand.  No one is going to give it away for free or even next to free.  The one thing economics and thermodynamics have in common is the law of conservation.  Even in places where it is about 1/3 of the cost of that in the US it is certainly still not free, and if suddenly everyone went there and started bitcoin mining the price would go up anyway because the demand for electricity would go up.

Let me tell you why I mine with free electricity. I have my mining rig at my families company. The company have a fixed level electricity cost, they consume a lot of electricity and the mining rig is a small part of it. A real example of how you mine for free. I can promise you that there is many more examples of this in the world. We are talking about a world with more than 6 billion people.

Cost =/= free. No one has fixed rate electrical cost. If your family's usage goes up, so will the costs. If you think that isn't the case, you are an idiot....but you already think that something you admittedly pay for is free, so...
1711  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again on: August 09, 2011, 03:46:54 AM

You still think there's going to be a rally today, don't you?

I still think there will be a rally. When I dont know, but I will say with certainty - Bitcoin's not done. In my opinion its just getting started. The foundation of the currency and the community is still taking shape. All you have to do is take a look at the infrastructure going up around it to see that. The one BIG advantage Bitcoin has over mainstream currencies is ease of use. How else can you pay for something located on the other side of the globe within an hour or so, if not minutes? And mobile payments is the BIG growth area. The problem that still exists with this however is the slowness of the regular banking system. This is where Bitcoin has a huge advantage thats not yet been fully realised. And the as far as price goes, the best may still be yet to come. All it needs is a few big players to become interested and its value could skyrocket again overnight BUT with a bigger/stronger/more secure foundation beneath it, the price wont tank next time.

The points you make about utility are valid, but the mistake you make is in thinking that This iteration of crypto currency will be the one that becomes the standard. I see Bitcoin more as a trial run of the crypto currency protocol, a way to see the strengths and shortcomings. The very fact that this is all open-source makes the possibility, in my mind, that a subsequent iteration of this system - likely one backed by a company with the ability to provide branding and a concerted and effective marketing effort - will be the future. Bitcoin's name has been tarnished beyond repair - you can argue this all you want, but you and I both know it. There is just no incentive by any interested party to waste time undoing negative perceptions when the code can be copied, tweaked and polished to provide the safety and convenience Bitcoin has always lacked and something which the Bitcoin developers have yet to address despite the passage of so much catastrophe. It is unforgivable that an update to the client has not been made which provides an encrypted wallet. Unforgivable - and a testament to the failure of the "community" effort.


Bitcoin is so tarnished it's useless? Why does this 'iteration' have to be abandoned and started anew to flourish? If the changes are beneficial, the community will accept them; no new blockchain needed.

Why don't you read up on the history of the US Dollar and come back with some historical knowledge to back your argument. That one was basically an open source build for longer than it has been stable and regulated.
1712  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Silk road on: August 09, 2011, 03:19:12 AM
Mods please delete this thread . If you are trying to use silkroad forget about it, the DEA has enlisted their "cyber" division to watch over orders and shipments. No one uses Silkroad anymore, just forget about it please and stop telling your friends and making threads about it.


Thank you.

Uhhh, it's there, and it's flourishing.

Silkroad is one of the major non-speculative demands for bitcoins. They have their place...we just don't like to talk about it.
1713  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Could BTCGuild be cheating its miners? on: August 09, 2011, 03:09:14 AM
A better analogy is this one:

A certain town has 500 people. You suspect that maybe some of them are psychic. So you ask each person to try to correctly identify the suits of some cards they cannot see. Of the 500 people, you find 3 that did extremely well in the test. So you say that you suspect those 3 are psychic.

But, of course, they could have succeeded merely by luck. So you decide to do a new study. You'll test those 3 people. But wait, someone already did that. So you'll just check the previous results. Lo and behold, the data shows that those 3 people succeed way beyond what you'd expect by mere chance, perhaps the chances were only 3 in 500 that they could do that well by chance.

You cannot use the same data both to decide which pool to accuse of cheating and to validate that same accusation. Some pool has to have the worst luck, so bad that it's hard to believe looking only at that pool that its luck was that bad due to mere chance.

That was the point I was bringing up with mentioning Ars. For every bad luck streak that someone is having, generally, someone else is killing it. Probability always works itself out in the end.

OP, you ever been to Vegas? Do you claim the casino is cheating when the guy next to you wins big while you lose the shirt off your back?

Come to Arsbitcoin; SMPPS and a super-legit and responsive pool op. That way you don't have to worry about the big bad BTCGuild breathing down your neck.
1714  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Could this popular mining pool be cheating its miners? on: August 08, 2011, 09:16:29 PM
online poker is rigged!

I am not very good with math, but I would like to see someone run these numbers on BurningToad's Arsbitcoin SMPPS pool. We are at a positive buffer of ~800btc, which is +16 blocks found over the probability curve, and have held it for almost a month. BurningToad also came forward with three (or maybe it was just two) blocks that were found but never registered by his code due to a bug concerning a block found while the previous found block's payout calcs were running (iirc). He could easily have kept them and none would be the wiser, especially with the crazy positive buffer. How many operators ARE keeping them?

Anyways, beyond the hidden block thing, what are the odds that we would end up with this crazy buffer for so long? It seems radically unlikely, just like the string of bad luck the OP is quoting. With the rate of distribution being relatively constant, one pool's up is another pool's down...


Assuming the network as a whole is constant isn't entirely accurate though.  Looking at the charts at bitcoinwatch can show you the network can vary quite a lot.  One pool's up/down does not mean another pool is having the opposite.  However, the odds of consistently solving blocks faster than expected at a difficulty are the same as consistently taking longer.

I spent the last week going over the changes I had made to pushpool, trying to find some simple change I made that would've caused it to not push valid shares upstream to bitcoind, and I've come up blank.  I replaced the pools with stock pushpool [outside of db-mysql.c and a long-poll disable bit] the other day and it changed nothing.  Other pools are running JoelKatz's patches so I have no reason to believe that is causing any issues either.

Software side issues are ruled out.  The only thing itching in the back of my mind is the way the servers have been split up to run against their own bitcoind + wallet, but that shouldn't mean anything, especially when we've been doing the same thing for a long time and have shown ups/downs regularly in luck.  Splitting miners [and making sure they come back to the same server with results] across 6 smaller pools should have no difference in variance from all using one large pool as long as each pool is running different headers [receiving addresses] for the hashes.

I thought the charts/hashrates recorded by bitcoinwatch were extrapolated from the difficulty and rate of solution of blocks. If that is the case, it is much more constant than it appears, as probability is responsible for the wiggle vs. actual computing power entering and leaving the network.

I have no opinion in either direction on this, I just wanted to bring up the Ars pool as an example of statistics not playing out as they should for a loooong stretch...and we're back to the whole random number generator thing...
1715  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Could this popular mining pool be cheating its miners? on: August 08, 2011, 09:10:03 PM
The arsbitcoin.com pool's 800 BTC buffer is interesting. It looks like that pool is only 1/6th the size of BTCGuild.com.

Is there a way to find out over what length of time those 800 BTC were accumulated?

We switched to SMPPS on 7-06-11.
1716  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [FORBES] The Bitcoin Crash - New Article, Forbes Claim is Doom on: August 08, 2011, 09:07:58 PM
Quote
The puzzling thing about Bitcoin, which I pointed out back in April, is that the currency doesn’t seem to have any fundamental value at all.
This statement is nonsense.  A bitcoin itself might not have any intrinsic value, but the bitcoin platform has plenty of fundamental value.  The author is dead wrong on this point.  The issues will get resolved in time, effective defenses against theft will be crafted, and bitcoin will survive.


Well, he obviously doesn't know that his bitcoin can get him high as shit.
1717  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin has failed. Could something similar possibly work? on: August 08, 2011, 08:56:29 PM
At this point, we can write off Bitcoin as a failed experiment. It's worth thinking about how a different distributed digital currency might be made workable. A few problems which have to be solved:

  • Mutual mistrust between buyer and seller needs to be supported. This is the toughest problem. Right now, sending Bitcoins is not tied to receiving something in return, and is irrevocable.
  • The double-spending check system has to be as least as fast as normal credit card processing. Waiting minutes for the block chain to update is unacceptable.
  • Some price stability is needed. Value shouldn't change more than 1% per week, worst case. 1% per month would be better.
  • A better way of launching the currency needs to be developed.

There's an approach to mutual mistrust that might work.  First, as with credit cards, there's a need for an "authorize" and a "capture" stage. In the "authorize" stage, A indicates that they intend to send value to B. This locks up the value from other use by A, and B receives a reliable confirmation that A has that value. In the "capture" stage, the value is actually transferred to B. A has to authorize the "capture". 

That's the normal case. The hard cases might work as follows:

  • If A does an "authorize", and then does nothing, a "capture" automatically takes place after some number of days. So sellers don't have to nag buyers.
  • If B cancels the capture, that's an agreed cancellation of the transaction, and the value becomes available to A again.
  • If A does an "authorize" and later cancels before a "capture", the value becomes available to them again after some number of days. This is the tough case, and it puts B at risk of the buyer backing out after shipment of the product. To discourage backing out, when A does this, they are no longer anonymous to B, and B can publicize the cancellation, which affects A's reputation. Also, because cancellations aren't immediate, A's value is tied up for days, so they can't do this too often.

Discuss.


Cars are a failure because they don't fly.

/thread
1718  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Could this popular mining pool be cheating its miners? on: August 08, 2011, 08:32:43 PM
online poker is rigged!

I am not very good with math, but I would like to see someone run these numbers on BurningToad's Arsbitcoin SMPPS pool. We are at a positive buffer of ~800btc, which is +16 blocks found over the probability curve, and have held it for almost a month. BurningToad also came forward with three (or maybe it was just two) blocks that were found but never registered by his code due to a bug concerning a block found while the previous found block's payout calcs were running (iirc). He could easily have kept them and none would be the wiser, especially with the crazy positive buffer. How many operators ARE keeping them?

Anyways, beyond the hidden block thing, what are the odds that we would end up with this crazy buffer for so long? It seems radically unlikely, just like the string of bad luck the OP is quoting. With the rate of distribution being relatively constant, one pool's up is another pool's down...

1719  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Hacking off CPU cooler from Corsair H50 to add GPU waterblock.... on: August 08, 2011, 12:58:49 AM
Good luck, take pics!
1720  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Resting Your Video Card on: August 08, 2011, 12:56:20 AM
Fucking freezers, how do they work?


Ahahahahaha!@
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