i also don't think she's accounting for bitcoin's extreme scarcity. there is all this expectation of massive derivative market liquidity, but this fundamentally requires borrowed bitcoins to underlie the derivative markets.

and bitcoins are incredibly difficult to borrow because of their extreme scarcity.

that leads me to wonder whether physically settled derivative markets (like bakkt) will actually have enough volume and liquidity to dominate spot market pricing, like we see in the gold market and other commodity markets. and cash settled markets don't matter at all---they are essentially CFD traders making side bets about the spot market.

isn't it just a hard fork like ethereum's past ones? the recent IRS guidance (confusing as it was) tried to speak to that scenario:


my reading of that is that if the old network is abandoned, there is no taxable income. an example of this would be ethereum's first hard fork from "frontier" to "homestead". if multiple viable networks emerge (as happened with ETC or BCH) then there may be taxable income incurred on receipt, depending when/where you received the tokens.

technically, everything affects supply and demand (and thus price)---even little fish like you and me. it's just a matter of how much value we're talking. 1 BTC sold on an exchange will hardly affect price. but 25k BTC or more? that could definitely have an effect in such an illiquid market.

the flip side is the plus token scheme pumped/propped up the market too. people bought billions of dollars worth of BTC and ETH to deposit into it. that must have had an effect on spot prices.

the contrarian in me is thrilled to see these bearish opinions. it seems like lots of people are beginning to doubt the halving narrative. this is a good thing: bull markets are built on skepticism and pessimism. i'd be a lot more worried right now if everyone was bullish and hopeful.

let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.

he's always saying stuff like this, especially when bitcoin is in a bear market. in december 2017 and june 2019 he was singing it praises.

he also views bitcoin and gold as fundamentally similar, which isn't the worst endorsement if you ask me.

he might also be spewing FUD while accumulating BTC on the sly. that's how the big boys do it.

anything is possible, but betting against strong trends is usually a bad idea. dropping below the $3100s at this point would be historically unprecedented because it's now a confirmed yearly pivot. it would probably correspond with a never before seen rate of down spiraling hash rate.

until that happens, i'm not betting against the long term trend.

agreed there.

i got in my own share of trouble during my late teens. in fact it was my first year of university, like one of the brothers in this case. no need to revisit the details, but living down that sentence (particularly the shame of it) set me straight.


i suppose it depends on the person and the circumstances. a lot of people wouldn't survive 2 years in an american prison, and they know this.

in canada, i'm not sure....

those dastardly manipulators!

tbh, i've never seen the big deal with wash trading. volume is just self-reported data; it's obviously prone to distortion. all that matters is price, which can't be faked given the entire global exchange market.


i'm pretty sure binance rose to prominence on the back of fake volume. CZ oversaw all the fake volume algorithms at okcoin (now okex) so i don't believe for a second binance always played by the book. they are just better at hiding it.

i commend anyone who is willing to do this. i'm too embarrassed to do it myself, especially because i mostly deal with cashiers who aren't in a position to affect any real change. they just look at me like i'm crazy.

however, i do have a friend who owns a retail business and i've been quietly prodding him to accept bitcoin and/or install an ATM for a few years. he seems to be getting increasingly interested in bitcoin as an investment asset, so i might be able to convince him yet.

i assume you're referring to the privacy features of the lightning network, or maybe the future integration of schnorr signatures?

bitcoin and BSV are both getting regulated to hell regardless of these privacy features, so i'm not sure what point you're trying to make. regulations like the 5th AML directive capture all cryptocurrencies under the same umbrella. BSV exchanges and custodial wallets are screwed just the same as everyone else.

in terms of pricing in market information, the halving is psychologically no different than other news events. it's publicly known about and there is a discrete event date. for that reason, the "buy the rumor, sell the news" adage most likely applies, which is why we saw a large run-up in the months prior to the 2012 and 2016 halvings. smart traders and whales will probably front run the "sell the news" event by distributing before the actual halving takes place. perhaps in march or april.

with the halving only 5 months away, all i know is it's a dangerous time to be short......

this is a commonly accepted but reckless assumption. it's based on extrapolating current computing trends and non-physical limitations. basically, you're completely writing off the possibility that technological breakthroughs in computing could ever happen. history shows this is an untenable position.

i'm beginning to prefer quantum computing FUD to these arrogant assumptions that quantum computing will never be a threat.

it's not that a mixer is more secure than coinbase. it's about your privacy. coinbase employs blockchain analysis on all your deposits and withdrawals, maintaining a cumulative record of all your blockchain activity in case regulators ever ask for it. then they mandate KYC so everything is positively linked to your identity.

maybe you're okay with that because your coins come from "normal, legal sources". personally, i would prefer that coinbase knows as little as possible about me or my bitcoin stash.

whenever bitcoin reaches a new ATH---and this obviously seems to happen periodically---literally everyone who has ever sold BTC regrets it.

selling at $32 in 2011 seemed perfect, at the time. but if you forgot about bitcoin for a couple years after that and woke up to 4-figure prices, it was actually a horrible time to sell.

i guess it comes down to this: if you sell, are you actually gonna buy back lower? most people will end up buying back higher than they sold.

i think bitcoin is destined to crash in any typical financial crisis / economic crash scenario---even if it achieves a status similar to gold. gold crashed 34% during the 2008 crisis after all. gold may hold its value better than other assets but hedging economic contractions is about minimizing losses, not preventing them entirely.

when it comes to economic contractions, cash is king.

the only situation where that's not true is a currency crisis where fiat currencies like the USD completely collapse. this is a very different situation than a garden variety recession. predicting a recession is one thing; predicting the collapse of fiat currencies is a bit more of a long shot!

you might be cleared of wrongdoing, especially if you could prove you obtained the coins with legitimate funds, but this scenario could also result in:
-exchanges freezing/closing your accounts and reporting you to law enforcement
-law enforcement investigating you and possibly even seizing your money with civil asset forfeiture

https://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/civil-asset-forfeiture-7-things-you-should-know

him and every other commentator are repeating the same thing---imminent collapse coming, sell everything. in fact, they've been saying it for a year already.

but look at the charts. the stock market literally made a new all-time high today! maybe they should at least wait for a sizeable dip before expecting a 65%+ crash lol.

this reminds me of the 2005-06 period. everyone is pessimistic about an incoming crash but the market keeps climbing the wall of worry. considering how bearish everyone is, i'd say we have a good 1-2 years before the crash finally comes.


it would exacerbate a market decline in BTC. there is no perfect hedge to a global economic crash and if there were one, it's not BTC.

i could have told you that.

we're still in the early adopter stage. this is extremely speculative technology, which is why we early adopters are well positioned to prosper years down the road if/when it catches on.

convenience and UX are big obstacles to mainstream usage and thus network effect. fortunately, the market is already very confident in bitcoin's monetary and network security properties, so speculation alone is a major source of adoption. lots of speculators---those who aren't washed out of the market during bear runs anyway---end up becoming avid everyday users. i'm one example of that. i came for the bubbles but stayed for the technology.

speculator demand provides a lot of base value to the market while the usability and liquidity kinks are ironed out over the course of years. rome wasn't built in a day after all!

the oldest mixing algorithms have long since been broken but blockchain analysis companies are always a step behind. effective tumbling means that observers can't tell with a great deal of certainty that outputs came from a mixer at all.

at the same time, exchanges have a strong interest in retaining fungibility, otherwise their liquidity is dead. the key is to avoid obvious association with prohibited activities.


case in point. wasabi wallet's coinjoins are blatantly obvious, which is not as much of a problem for centralized mixers with superior liquidity:

yeah and litecoin's rally ending in june 2019 topped 550% growth.

the references to 2012 and 2016 referred to bitcoin's halvings, since bitcoin similarly pumped prior to those events too.