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17241  Economy / Economics / Re: Three ways to save Bitcoin on: October 25, 2011, 11:52:32 AM
I believe you completely missed the point of my post. I'm talking about using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, not as an investment.

Just because you pretend the two are inseparable does not mean they are. If bitcoin became the primary form of money in Kenya or Zimbabwe or whatever, the economies of those countries would be further crushed when Satoshi or whoever decides to drop a load of 50k coins. And they will rightly see that a bitcoin is no better than a zimbabwe trillion dollar bill.

why would you assume early adopters would drop a large load of coins at a given pt in time anymore than a Steve Jobs would dump a large load of Apple stock at a given time which he never did?

early adopters of any company usually have an understanding of not disrupting the share price of their stock and will bleed any stock sale they wish to achieve so as not to do so.  and distributing this stock or coin would be a good thing as this would get more coin into the hands of late comers.

Bitcoin is way to early in its evolution to make wild conclusions either direction as to its future.  i personally see all the right principles, philosophy, and economic incentives in place in the code.
17242  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 25, 2011, 04:03:06 AM
1.  the first sourcecode that prevents file copying while allowing public access.

Bitcoin's innovation is not that it prevents double-spending.  That was invented by David Chaum in the 1990s and formed the basis of DigiCash. Nor is "mining" new; that's from Hashcash in the 1990s. Bitcoin combines the two concepts. The end result is a lot like Digicash, but distributed. 

i actually re wrote that above in response to 2112.

part of the difficulty of Bitcoin is figuring out just what it is and how best to apply it.  i've been thinking about this all day and i think that Bitcoin is the first system that allows the public distribution of a file (blockchain) that only allows modification according to a predefined set of rules.  any attempt to modify this file outside of these rules will be rejected.
17243  Economy / Economics / Re: Three ways to save Bitcoin on: October 25, 2011, 03:44:40 AM
as to #3, this is what has made M Pesa successful in Kenya.  i can easily see Bitcoin being used favorably as a means of exchange in 3rd world countries.  the cost advantages are so numerous. 

the remittance mkt is also promising but there are only a certain number of exchanges out there.  mtgox does offer many currencies however.
17244  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 25, 2011, 03:07:53 AM
did i not say it right? how about the first p2p file sharing system that prevents copying?  how would you say it?
I really don't know what you are trying to convey.

I can say that I'm really interested in the perception of the Bitcoin project, both amongst those who can read the source code and those who wont understand it. For the project with about 25 thousand lines of hard-to-read code the amount of misunderstanding among the software professionals is within my expected boundaries.

For non-practitioners in software I just don't have a frame of reference. I'm just trying to comprehend what they are imagining or believing as the features of Bitcoin. And if they believe then whom and in what claims. I find this very interesting and this is what is continuing to draw me to this forum.

Clearly you are an experienced investor, since you've quickly seen through the facade of Bitcoinica and Zhoutong's posts. Also clearly, you must rely on somebody's else opinions about the actual underlying technology.


so what do you think?  did i at least somewhat answer your question?
17245  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Front Page of Drudge: Vatican Calls For Global Bank on: October 25, 2011, 03:00:54 AM
I've heard that the state of Utah and the Mormon church was interested in bitcoins. 

care to elaborate?
17246  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Kitco : Bitcoin Sucks on: October 25, 2011, 02:56:12 AM
Nadler was a bear on gold all the way up despite working for Kitco.  he's a dummy.
17247  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin ATMs -- who are the players? on: October 25, 2011, 02:27:54 AM
Quote
very interesting.  i have no reason to doubt your experience here.  out of curiosity, are you positive about Bitcoin's future?  is Eric, Eric Brigham?

The implementation of Bitcoin is what I am most fascinated by. Because I came into Bitcoin as a Miner, I have a different appreciation of a unit of value. I didn't purchase my first bitcoins, I mined them. I played poker with them, and I never used MtGox until I was working on the Bitcoin ATM. In other words, though there was an abstract notion in my head about their value, based on what I read the exchange value was, I thought more about Bitcoins having a cumulative value, rather than a dollar pegged value.

So, am I positive about Bitcoin's future?

100%

Am I positive about Bitcoin currently? Why?

Yes and No. There are three main types in Bitcoin: Miners, Programmers & Speculators. Speculators have proven that they can drive the network, where Bitcoins produced are redeemable for units of Fiat. This project is the first of its kind, and will not be the last. What an exceptional experiment. Many of us have learned about Cryptography, Parallel Processing and Money Science. Freaking awesome! Many others who are here are out of work, and are dusting off useful skills that can and should be put to work in the broader workplace. What an awesome way to brush up!

I don't like the infighting, the polarized nature of this forum, and I really hope that those who are feeling paranoid thoughts, delusions of grandeur and unhealthy hatred towards Bitcoin or people in these forums, please seek help. Go outside, meet people in real life, stop feeling sorry for yourselves. STOP tying your value of your self, and your skills to the value of Bitcoin.

This is the moment in time that distinguishes the winners from the losers. Bitcoin and its variants are far from dead, and the weak hands of the main 3 spokes that support the wheel, the Miners, the Programmers and the Speculators, they are being shaken out of the tree.

ATM's will never work. I know how to make them work in a real world scenario, but it requires a larger user base. Chicken and the egg. There is no window of certainty out to 12 months with Bitcoin, so bringing in the required investment to build out is highly unlikely. It's a dangerous gamble.

There are many things that need to happen before you'll be seeing Bitcoin ATMs. It makes about as much sense as a Gold ATM.

We need to focus on POS, online merchant services, and market liquidity / exchange options before anything like the Bitcoin ATM can succeed beyond a moderately reported press release and niche market adoption. There's no money in it as an operator. I promise. Perhaps someone could sell leases for Bitcoin ATMs with software pre loaded, and could integrate a cash recycler device to lower service costs, and then perhaps they could go a step further and franchise the opportunity, and provide the required compliance officers, and AML documentation processing, you know.. back end administration.

Then go find 50 people willing to pay for their territory, and who are also willing to pay 500-750 a month to have a purpose built kiosk.

The company / group that succeeds will still be heavily subsidizing marketing and back end costs for many, many quarters to come.

-Jonathan



thanks Jonathan.  that was very helpful and insightful.  i had to ask b/c i saw that you were shorting BTC.

you missed a fourth category and that is true investors like myself.  i'm a non-coder but firm supporter of BTC since the Spring.  i think i understand the nexus btwn the project and the monetary system but have been surprised at the wild volatility.  i believe that we will come out of this just fine as the the wild eyed speculators are indeed shaken out.

i easily see that you are right about ATM's.  i was shocked to hear what you said about Todd Bethell.  he made it sound like he understood Bitcoin and had some sophistication regarding the technology and how it interfaces with the real monetary system.   apparently not.  too bad for him and it sounds like he  has lost alot of money.  i also think he had money at MyBitcoin which is unfortunate.  even i was smart enough to learn how to create an offline wallet and store my Bitcoins there. 

what i think we're seeing is a washout of these weak hands. long term i am very bullish and will give the project 10 yrs minimum.  if it goes to zero before then well i guess i lose big time.  but i seriously don't think so.  there's just too much here and the blockchain marches on.

best of luck in your endeavors and i look forward to the time when you stop shorting Bitcoin and go long from positive feedback.
17248  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Robert Prechter calls Bitcoin "Brilliant" on: October 25, 2011, 02:11:50 AM
Bump and cross-link to Elliott Wave Educational Video Series - a seminar of Prechter's from "more than 15 years ago".

his son goes by BrightAnarchist.

His biological son or are we speaking intellectually here?

biological son
17249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Manipulator pulled out at $2.00, he has given up, $1.00 he we come on: October 24, 2011, 11:54:33 PM
Yeah looks like he plopped it back up at $2.0. But before he plopped it up, $2.00 had a total amount of 1,100. This shows how much the manipulator is involved as almost the entire $2.00 is by this 1 bidder.

what about a coordinated group of manipulators?
17250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Manipulator pulled out at $2.00, he has given up, $1.00 he we come on: October 24, 2011, 10:59:36 PM
funny i still see a bid wall there @ $2?
17251  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 06:04:06 PM
If you do not know what you are doing, no don't use it!

even if you do know what you're doing the leverage, Zhou's power to liquidate you, lack of signif reserves, lack of direct continuous co-location to mtgox makes it unviable when volatility strikes.

and b/c Zhou won't directly say he does not need that little plastic Yubikey to trade his accts at mtgox, i must assume he does need it and all your accts depend on it.
17252  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: October 24, 2011, 05:36:18 PM
one can't be too negative on pm's and miners as long as the stock mkt keeps going up and UST's keep selling off.
17253  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 05:33:34 PM
Zhou:  Does mtgox require the use of the Yubikey to trade?
17254  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 05:11:59 PM
I got a MASSIVE Zhoutonged...

I mean: I got my BTC deposit liquidated (not a normal position, be it short or long).

Without warning, and it does not show on the logs.

300+ BTC Sad

If you just leave your BTC deposit like that everything will be fine. When you owed Bitcoinica over $1,000 and your BTC deposit is dropping in value, why would you expect a warning.

I have already apologized for the logging problem. (The ledger was not designed in our system yet.) If remembered correctly, your deposits were liquidated at the price higher than $3. You should buy now instead of complaining.

It may not be a good price, but what were you doing when there was a good price?

Bitcoinica is not the place for you to owe USD and hold BTC indefinitely. It may be wrong to you, but the market is always correct.

I expected a warning because it was nowhere informed that his could be done, only that.

And sorry being being a asshole, I am upset of how you handled stuff, but this does not give me the right to keep annoying you.

when i get into an margin call situation with Fidelity that might be due today for example, i get a telephone call in the morning warning me to settle my acct up on my own by the end of the day, or else they'll do it for me. 
17255  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 05:06:20 PM
I got a MASSIVE Zhoutonged...

I mean: I got my BTC deposit liquidated (not a normal position, be it short or long).

Without warning, and it does not show on the logs.

300+ BTC Sad

If you just leave your BTC deposit like that everything will be fine. When you owed Bitcoinica over $1,000 and your BTC deposit is dropping in value, why would you expect a warning.

I have already apologized for the logging problem. (The ledger was not designed in our system yet.) If remembered correctly, your deposits were liquidated at the price higher than $3. You should buy now instead of complaining.

It may not be a good price, but what were you doing when there was a good price?

Bitcoinica is not the place for you to owe USD and hold BTC indefinitely. It may be wrong to you, but the market is always correct.

BTW, when i trade Bitcoin at mtgox, i need to use my Yubikey to get into my acct to accomplish this; not just for withdrawals.  are you different than this?

API.

does the API require the use of the Yubikey to trade?  it seems it does so for withdrawals.

It doesn't make sense to use Yubikey via API.

please just say no if the answer is no.

but then why wouldn't the withdrawal function be included within the API precluding the need for a Yubikey?
17256  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 05:00:58 PM
I got a MASSIVE Zhoutonged...

I mean: I got my BTC deposit liquidated (not a normal position, be it short or long).

Without warning, and it does not show on the logs.

300+ BTC Sad

If you just leave your BTC deposit like that everything will be fine. When you owed Bitcoinica over $1,000 and your BTC deposit is dropping in value, why would you expect a warning.

I have already apologized for the logging problem. (The ledger was not designed in our system yet.) If remembered correctly, your deposits were liquidated at the price higher than $3. You should buy now instead of complaining.

It may not be a good price, but what were you doing when there was a good price?

Bitcoinica is not the place for you to owe USD and hold BTC indefinitely. It may be wrong to you, but the market is always correct.

BTW, when i trade Bitcoin at mtgox, i need to use my Yubikey to get into my acct to accomplish this; not just for withdrawals.  are you different than this?

API.

does the API require the use of the Yubikey to trade?  it seems it does so for withdrawals.
17257  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 04:49:14 PM
I got a MASSIVE Zhoutonged...

I mean: I got my BTC deposit liquidated (not a normal position, be it short or long).

Without warning, and it does not show on the logs.

300+ BTC Sad

If you just leave your BTC deposit like that everything will be fine. When you owed Bitcoinica over $1,000 and your BTC deposit is dropping in value, why would you expect a warning.

I have already apologized for the logging problem. (The ledger was not designed in our system yet.) If remembered correctly, your deposits were liquidated at the price higher than $3. You should buy now instead of complaining.

It may not be a good price, but what were you doing when there was a good price?

Bitcoinica is not the place for you to owe USD and hold BTC indefinitely. It may be wrong to you, but the market is always correct.

BTW, when i trade Bitcoin at mtgox, i need to use my Yubikey to get into my acct to accomplish this; not just for withdrawals.  are you different than this?
17258  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 04:30:29 PM
I got a MASSIVE Zhoutonged...

I mean: I got my BTC deposit liquidated (not a normal position, be it short or long).

Without warning, and it does not show on the logs.

300+ BTC Sad

well technically the correct phrasing should be "i got a massive ZHOUTONG" but who cares?
17259  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: We're under attack on: October 24, 2011, 03:57:26 PM
I think it's time to let Banks to do Bitcoin exchange business.

Um nobody every prohibited any bank from exchanging bitcoins.  They never will.  Ever.  Not unless Bitcoin is already accepted by the masses.  Bitcoin is potentially (not in its current implementation but in its potential for "someday") the greatest threat banks have ever faced.  It makes them mostly obsolete and cuts them out of the trillion dollar business of collecting fees from people to "let" them spend their own money.

Banks will fight to the bloody end to kill, minimize, and disrupt Bitcoin.  When a major bank offers Bitcoin exchange service it means they have already lost.  Bitcoin has become the dominant method of global payment and continuing to fight Bitcoin is simply futile.

Until that day happens (if ever) the banks will NEVER support Bitcoin (or any alternative which undermines their very existence).

this is true.  Genjix, you are better off devoting your time and energy on developing Bitcoin and ways to get around the current system.
17260  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: October 24, 2011, 01:58:32 PM
i'll ask again; has anyone heard from Zhou since Friday?  i wonder if he's in trouble with this latest ramp in the price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42267.msg566153#msg566153

when a leveraged entity needs to depend on such a small electric device to get your money on quick notice you know you're in trouble.
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