Thanks for the pointer to this interesting post, which I had ignored until now because I'm mostly paying attention to bitcoin. It sounds as though you were actually thinking about gold's potential, and had thoughtful, substantial arguments behind your assertions. I wish your posts about bitcoin were as thoughtful and thought-provoking. that thread encompasses not just gold btw. its an incredibly in depth debate primarily btwn miscreanity and i about world economics, deflation vs inflation, investing, technical vs fundamental analysis, etc. miscreanity knows way more than most of these clowns here too. thats my baby and i've poured my heart into it while taking my time to post thoughtfully and with care. and i've have made some pretty damn good calls if i may so which is why its got so many views i think. edit: this board here. yeah, they're right, its for children and i've never said i didn't have some of those tendencies. |
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Thanks for the pointer to this interesting post, which I had ignored until now because I'm mostly paying attention to bitcoin. It sounds as though you were actually thinking about gold's potential, and had thoughtful, substantial arguments behind your assertions. I wish your posts about bitcoin were as thoughtful and thought-provoking. keep going through the thread. we do debate Bitcoin as well. this Spec forum is the Wild West. it's hard to maintain and put the time in needed for in depth thoughtful posts here when there are so many crazies hanging around. |
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how hard is it to respond to that question? sometimes it pays to follow the speculators, sometimes not. this is a personal judgment based on what each individual feels they know about the underlying technology.
you can choose to be a momentum follower for Bitcoin or not. i can choose not to be and be a contrarian to the recent price fall. if the price starts to ramp up again, then yes, i'll become a momentum follower as i believe the fundamentals of Bitcoin support a further price rise.
stop acting like you're so smart.
cypherdoc: I don't speculate on what other speculators will do. mjcmurfy: that's bullshit. what do you speculate on then? cypherdoc: how can i possibly answer that? stop acting so smart. It's quite easy. Just tell me what it is you are speculating on if you aren't speculating on metrics that are directly related to the decisions of other speculators? It's only difficult to answer if you were lying, or didn't fully understand what you were saying, and now realize that you cannot answer the question without invalidating your original statement. Either way, this only highlights and reinforces the assumptions I already have. So, keep trying, or else stfu. ok, if you insist i'll trot out all the fundamental positives that many here on this forum have already elucidated a thousand times. i speculate or invest in Bitcoin based on those fundamentals for the following reasons: 1. the first sourcecode that prevents file copying while allowing public access. 2. that same sourcecode that has created a blockchain of financial data that still exists 3 yr since its evolution and has resisted all forms of attack. 3. a stable rate of inflation thats diminishes with time and eventually goes to zero. 4. a protocol which could eventually be used as a currency if a Bitcoin is perceived as a stable store of value. 5. a dedicated group of devs that work for free in supporting and advancing the innovations of this same code. 6. a continuous appearance of new technologies and implementations surrounding Bitcoin. i won't bother to list them all b/c there's alot. 7. a sourcecode that could be used as a different form of gold standard for the USD. that is, a fixed supply commodity/currency whatever you want to call it, that the existing USD fractional reserve system could be upon in a rigid 10:1 ratio. PM's IMO are too difficult to fulfill that role. this one will generate all sorts of howls i'm sure but this is how i see best Bitcoin being used. 8. the fact that i think the Bears on this forum are wrong 9. that fact that i do have Libertarian tendencies and wish to express that outlook by supporting at technology that will hopefully change the system for the better. 10. i believe in open source projects and the many examples of how well these have played out the last 10 years. howl away. |
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I will make whatever assumptions I like, based on the things that you are saying and the points you are arguing. My post was in direct response to a statement that you made claiming that you "don't speculate on what other speculators will do". This is just bullshit, and you have been called out. Feel free to prove me wrong, but I am still waiting for the answer to my previous question, so my assumptions will remain until otherwise proven. how hard is it to respond to that question? sometimes it pays to follow the speculators, sometimes not. this is a personal judgment based on what each individual feels they know about the underlying technology. you can choose to be a momentum follower for Bitcoin or not. i can choose not to be and be a contrarian to the recent price fall. if the price starts to ramp up again, then yes, i'll become a momentum follower as i believe the fundamentals of Bitcoin support a further price rise. stop acting like you're so smart. |
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wrong again. i'm a speculator and i'm not speculating on what i expect other speculators will do. i speculate on Bitcoin b/c of what i believe are the underlying fundamentals.
This is a ridiculous statement for any speculator to come out with, and highlights the level of delusional thinking I have come to expect from these people. So you have never used a financial chart, or any form of technical analysis then? You don't consider support and resistance levels to be significant in your trading decisions? You don't look at trade volume or any other kind of financial metrics? You don't buy when you see large upward price movement or sell when you see large downward price movement? Did you sell any coin after the CosbyCoin incident or MtGox hack? You must be a highly unique type of speculator, because all of these things directly reflect what other speculators are doing. Especially when it comes to the exchange rate of bitcoin, which is more directly associated with investor sentiment than any other speculative vehicle currently available. If you don't base your speculative decisions on what other speculators are doing, then why do you even bother visiting the speculation subforum. What exactly is it you basing your speculative decisions on then? Lets hear it... this is going to be good. don't make assumptions about my level of knowledge. if you want an in depth look at what i do or don't know please visit my thread here which has an enormous following: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0careful, it will take you a week to get through. |
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Touché. University never prepared me for this, I am indeed clueless to understand how bitcoinporn's revamped website caused a 100x increase in BTC exchange rates or what other "fundementals" caused the 90% drop over the last months. Since you seem to think its fundamentals driving these fluctuations, maybe you want to share your in depth knowledge with us?
i think we're just talking past each other. the market price of Bitcoin encompasses its fundamentals, speculation, prudent investing, shorting, gambling, etc. no sense trying to parse each component apart b/c its impossible. either you see the underlying potentials of Bitcoin technology or you don't. i never cease to be amazed at how two people look at the same thing but see it so differently. thats all this is. |
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rasengen; what is mtgox's IRC channel address?
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We are now in the BigBoss repo.  good work guys. |
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what happened to Zhoutong anyway? he's disappeared for the last day or so.
ah, i see. he's busy liquidating.
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We're not going to make it beyond $3. Go ahead, watch.
proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before? Also, what will you do if it does break 3$? Not that I’m saying you are wrong. This situation reminds me exactly of what happened at 7$. Why is proudhon on the forum if all he talks about is how Bitcoin will fail? thats too good of a question for him to answer. |
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wrong again. i'm a speculator and i'm not speculating on what i expect other speculators will do. i speculate on Bitcoin b/c of what i believe are the underlying fundamentals.
If you honestly think changes in underlying fundamentals explain even a tiny % of the price swings in BTC exchanges, I can only LOL. your lack of understanding how markets, speculation, and investing work are starting to betray you. |
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do you have any idea how hard it was to hold my long leveraged positions during the 251 -ish plunge 2d ago followed by another plunge early yesterday?
its called discipline and conviction to your principles and analysis. i left not only a margin call open yesterday at the close but also an exchange call. by all rights Fidelity could have liquidated me out of part of my triple lever longs etf's and TBT to fill those but they let me slide for some reason. i didn't ask.
today i am rewarded with all sorts of green.
Glad the trade turned positive for you. Still, it's unnecessarily dangerous to use leverage for trading now, and rather foolish to leave a margin call be for any length of time. If this is just play money, great - keep going for long enough and you will get burned again. stocks are now up and out of the bear flag. it'll be clear sailing from here on out.
Are you sure about that? Leveraged positions could easily be at risk (just like those at Bitcoinica); non-leveraged ones have nothing to worry about. foolish? blah, blah, blah. successful investing often involves taking risk when the odds are in you favor. i first called this stock bounce here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg560220#msg560220and yes i've been piling on as the momentum has accelerated off of a failed double attempt to send us into a wave 3 down. penetration of the upper end of the bear flag usually involves a huge spike up and thru as the short seller stops are triggered off the top. this is what i was playing for and was rewarded but not after the market tried to make me dump my longs with a fake breakdown a couple of days prior. |
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However at some point, if speculation becomes bigger than the real world economy thats being speculated on, then you have a BIG problem, because speculators are no longer trying trying to predict real world changes in economy or finance, but are trying to predict what other speculators will predict. It doesnt take a genius to understand how this creates huge bubbles and bursts. This is precisely whats happening in the real world commodity markets (*), and bitcoin is a caricature of this, with speculation FAR FAR outpacing any realworld trade.
wrong again. i'm a speculator and i'm not speculating on what i expect other speculators will do. i speculate on Bitcoin b/c of what i believe are the underlying fundamentals. you're once again claiming your world view is the correct one when it could in fact be wrong. |
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Since no one knows what the heck bitcoins are worth, I think speculation is actually the most important activity for bitcoin right now as we go through the slow process of price discovery. Once a price range is settled on, THEN commerce can start. I couldnt disagree more. If you see bitcoin as a currency, like I do, its only reason to exist is to allow trade; and if there is no commerce associated with it, it has no value. All speculation does is anticipate on future economic activity that may or may not happen, and in this case, the speculation itself is preventing the economic activity from happening. That will never stabilize, its inherently unstable. Assume it stays around $3 for a few months now, and merchants start to believe in its stability and start adopting it. What do you think will happen? As BTC adoption finally begins, its price will skyrocket, a bubble will inflate, merchants will get second thoughts, the bubble bursts and we are back at square one. i said i agree with you that in an ideal world a currency should be rock steady with no fluctuation in value. but that has to be some positive number thats above zero. but because that number is above zero, how does the market determine what that specific number is? i submit that if Bitcoin becomes successful it will stabilize at some number reflective of its useful value as a currency. b/c its so young, the market is trying, wildly, to determine what that number is. my opinion, and its just my opinion based on what i know of the technology, is that its way above its current number. nevermind the volatility which is expected at this nascent stage. edit: btw, we don't live in an ideal world. we live in a world with the corrupt Fed injecting USD's into the system everytime their buddies get into trouble. this is in part why we have volatility. |
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Anyway, I dont hate speculators, I do hate stupid speculation, and honestly, this is what we are seeing.
why can't you accept the fact that this is all in the eyes of the beholder? honestly, if investing was so easy, everyone would see the potential and the price would skyrocket w/o any speculator being able to make a profit. successful investing means spotting an opportunity when no one else sees it. sure, we bulls, could be wrong but we just as sure could be right based on an intuition you're just not seeing. |
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I think your definition is wrong. Accumulating bitcoins is speculation and doesnt help the bitcoin economy. Day trading with them is using them as a currency to buy and sell. Not perfect, but its drugs and day trading that are keeping it alive until it gets more widely used.
speculation is required at the beginning of any new idea or business. afterall, if it was so obvious everyone would want in immediately and no one would make a profit. making that profit means speculating when everyone sees nothing but blood. |
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For all the people whining about how easy it is to be an early adopter. These low valuations might be your chance to be an early adopter!
Buy now, or forever stop whining
you are just way to rationale. |
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I guess no one wants to admit it  Didn't see this til now -- yeah, my $6 was liquidated also... took a looooong time. I learned that I am horrible (so far) at trading. (well, horrible at predicting price without any advice from professionals [other than s3052's public info]) No its not you. With so little liquidity, leverage, such wide spreads, a poor MtGox connection, and the potential to be zhoutonged, everyone loses. |
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I guess no one wants to admit it |
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as in liquidated.  |
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