there's nothing like a midnight Squeeze  |
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nice call. i'll take some credit.
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We might see $3. After each big drop, there's been some recovery. But each top was lower than the last, and each recovery lasted no more than three days.
no one's listening to you. Actually, I've received several private messages recently thanking me for keeping them from making a big financial mistake. Now let's have a look at "cypherdoc"'s track record: - September 3, 2011: "while the falloff has been dramatic, it appears to be stabilizing around this 8-10 range. i keep accumulating on the way down. just give it time. they can't stop it."
- August 4, 2011: "Re: $10,000 Bet that Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X !!! --- i happen to agree and i've staked my money on it!!!!"
- July 9, 2011: "i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year."
If he's telling the truth, he's lost a lot of money in Bitcoin. Anybody fool enough to listen to him did, too. is Bitcoin dead yet? oh yeah; still functioning. yes i believe in Bitcoin. when it goes to zero or when i sell, then i will have lost. i've always said i'm giving it 10 yrs. |
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You seem really butthurt over everything. Bagholder?
no. just believe there's an opportunity here. |
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i'm currently studying Zhoutong's model. my conclusion so far is that he's very over exposed. his accts are setup within mtgox AND he's complained about intermittent interruptions in his access to that same acct just like the rest of us. he's also admitted that he's not 100% hedged.
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Zhou will be fine in the event of coming up volatile short squeeeeze. Trust me, I know. lol. The shorts on the other hand may not find it being that nice to them. Being 5:1 leveraged short in a short squeeze is going to be quite a lesson for some. Hi Vlad, good to hear from you. altho its possible what you say is true i suspect in a major short squeeze both Zhoutong and the shorts will be hurt. but you're right; Zhoutong has the power to deflect the majority of the pain onto his clients. |
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We maintain absolutely zero net position as a whole. Our prices reflect instantaneous liquidity, volatility and they always account the risk of Bitcoinica.
thats not what you've said before. you said you take risk and that you are 90% hedged which means by definition you aren't fully net zero. and noting the numerous complaints on your thread about illiquidity also make your claims disingenuous. |
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this is not a conversation. these posts are called warnings.
as i study Bitcoinica, i'm formulating a plan and that's a thought process. you will not be able to say you've not been warned.
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most market makers like Zhoutong will locate themselves on the exchange itself or co-locate their servers in the next room or next door to be able to efficiently send/receive data to the exchange so that they can rapidly respond to big shifts in price. HFT's anyone?
the fact that he communicates with mtgox just like the rest of us with all of our connection headaches of the last 6 mo, just imagine him trying to hedge when volatility sets in like it did in June? it'd be ugly.
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the other problem i see is how is Zhoutong going to get all these kid short sellers to send more USD to their underwater accts when they get in trouble and a clear uptrend in the price gets well established? he has no legal processes to enforce deadbeats in any way shape or form to recover his losses.
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i'm currently studying Zhoutong's model. my conclusion so far is that he's very over exposed. his accts are setup within mtgox AND he's complained about intermittent interruptions in his access to that same acct just like the rest of us. he's also admitted that he's not 100% hedged.
in a massive short squeeze, especially one where he can't get access to liquidate clients accts or hedge quickly enough, Bitcoinica will suffer massive losses. his problem is that mtgox's trading platform is outdated and not fast enough for a large ramp in the price.
now is not the time to be shorting. the bursts in price will come intermittently and unpredictably.
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stocks are now up and out of the bear flag. it'll be clear sailing from here on out.
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do you have any idea how hard it was to hold my long leveraged positions during the 251 -ish plunge 2d ago followed by another plunge early yesterday?
its called discipline and conviction to your principles and analysis. i left not only a margin call open yesterday at the close but also an exchange call. by all rights Fidelity could have liquidated me out of part of my triple lever longs etf's and TBT to fill those but they let me slide for some reason. i didn't ask.
today i am rewarded with all sorts of green.
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Looks like it's over. Wrong timing and wrong scale is my take. Cleaned out a handful of wet-behind-the-ears starters maybe, but only big enough to instill a bit of caution into the majority of potential victims.
Now maybe we'll head down deep into the $1.nn's, and wait for the next go-around (and hopefully the last one in this phase.)
have you ever heard of waves my son? |
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cypherdoc, Bitcoin is pretty much tied to the USD at the moment.. if people want to get away from the USD why buy bitcoin? If I buy X amount of bitcoins with AUD and the USD falls, my bitcoins will buy back less AUD (because the exchange rate is based on the USD/AUD exchange rate)
b/c i think Bitcoin has bottomed. we are at sentiment lows and at the very final tip of a long measured descending wedge that has been created and significantly contributed to by short selling on Bitcoinica. study your technical analysis. descending wedges, esp ones this well formed and long lasting, most likely break UP and HARD. this wasn't your typical tulip bulb crash ala straight down. this slow decline has been measured and manipulated. NOW is the time to buy if you believe in Bitcoin fundamentals and look at the facts objectively. it would be easy to create a huge short squeeze here. i pity Zhoutong when it comes. all he is is a leveraged market maker go between from mtgox and short sellers. we could wipe him out. |
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I'm interested to see if the short squeeze prediction pans out. I think it would be the first short squeeze (of any significance) for bitcoin. It kind of makes sense...being able to short bitcoin is a relatively new capability and I suspect people might have overdone it. I'm sure the people that created Bitcoinica felt BTC was over priced and could make money by shorting it...I'm sure they also anticipated people loading up on the short side as they figured out how to use this new toy and are well positioned to take advantage of a short squeeze.
explain to me how Bitcoinica works. someone else said they're betting against their own clients? |
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Nice to finally see a bull around here that has the stamina of a bear. Take 'em down, cypherdoc. Let's not let the bastards get to us.
GoWest, where's the $5.5 you promised us in your predictions just a few weeks ago? its coming dude. |
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LOL!. Zhoutong is going to bitch slap liquidate all of your short selling accounts w/o notice. he can't afford to consult you about it as the price rises. its either you or him and you know who he'll choose.  don't expect him to follow any rules. |
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they spent all those hard earned USD's and time in the form of hardware, electricity, labor, and innovation in verifying and securing all those early tx's that went on before the ramp in the Spring.
give me a break dude. no way. explain the fallacy in that argument. |
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