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17361  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why I think the Bitcoin wealth pyramid hinders economic development on: October 20, 2011, 08:33:27 PM
My recommendation is for "hoarders" to do whatever they want. There is not necessarily any special gain made when a "hoarder" spends the money with a merchant. If the merchant saves the income, he becomes a "hoarder." If he cashes out, it drops the price and people get worried (though they shouldn't).

"Hoarders" do plenty of good to the economy - and it's made more clear when you realize they are no different than any merchant. A merchant sells a good for Bitcoins. Well - "hoarders" simply sold the good called "US Dollars" or another currency good for the Bitcoin. They then save the Bitcoins, raising market price and indicating to the market that Bitcoins have increased in demand.

Further, it's also important to realize that the more people "hoard" Bitcoin, the further the price increases, and this allows people who wish to spend their bitcoins to enjoy greater purchasing power. This increase in purchasing power is not only beneficial if you want to spend on consumption, but also on capital investment for Bitcoin projects.

Consider if Wealthy Investor A puts an order to purchase 5 million Bitcoins. He wants to "hoard" them. This will raise the price massively. Those holding Bitcoins now can spend each one to greater effect - the man with 1,000 coins is now sitting on substantial resources, and he can use that to invest in new startup businesses. If that Wealthy Investor A bought the coins then simply purchased tons of stuff with them, the 5 million coins would flow around and many would be sold off for other currencies. Good for the merchants in the short term, yes, but long term the effects are more complicated.

tl;dr - "hoarding" is neither good nor bad. It has positive and negative effects, based on who you care to look at and what your goals are. There is no need to either encourage it, nor discourage it.

well said.
17362  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Chase Bank to offer deposits for MTGox on: October 20, 2011, 08:29:01 PM
Why does the Mt.Gox website still say that it will be credited within 24 hours?

I call fraud. Something tells me Mt.Gox is going to shut it's doors very soon and our deposits are going to be M.I.A.

LOL!!!  what FUD!
17363  Economy / Speculation / Re: Exchanges shutting down on: October 20, 2011, 05:47:48 PM
you really are disgusting Nagle. the volumes on the y axis at BitcoinCharts are in Bitcoins, not USD. for example go there and look at just Todays Volume=28,592 BTC or 66,225.74 USD.  thats an extraordinary profit.
Go to the left column of a chart on BitcoinCharts. Click the checkbox marked "Volume in Currency".

ok, i did.  change the time period to 1 month on a weekly basis with show volume bars and volume in currency checked.  lets take the last 4 wks volume which will undershoot mtgox's revenues since these probably represent the weakest volumes since May.

if i total the 4 volume currency bars i get 4.4 M USD revenue.  multiply by 1.2% gives monthly revenues of $52800.  more than enough for expenses plus healthy profits.
17364  Economy / Speculation / Re: Denial on: October 20, 2011, 02:32:26 PM
they can move

they can't.  Because all money movement is centralized at mtgox.

you're assuming that the money couldn't be broken up into tranches and distributed to intermediaries for an eventual cashout via mtgox or anyone of a number of the other exchanges.  it can be done especially if you're involved in a network of say money launderers.
17365  Economy / Speculation / Re: Denial on: October 20, 2011, 02:21:05 PM
don't forget though that every investment has a speculative component which is entirely unpredictable.  if wealthy people come to realize that they can move large amounts of fiat currency across borders via Bitcoin in the blink of an eye anonymously (if they are very careful via routing) you could see a price rise similar to gold.
17366  Economy / Speculation / Re: Exchanges shutting down on: October 20, 2011, 01:54:19 PM

http://www.downside.com/

everyone please go to this piece of sh*t and draw your own conclusions.
17367  Economy / Speculation / Re: Denial on: October 20, 2011, 01:53:26 PM
http://www.downside.com/

everyone please go to this piece of sh*t and draw your own conclusions.
17368  Economy / Speculation / Re: Exchanges shutting down on: October 20, 2011, 01:46:52 PM
Take a look at all those black bars on Bitcoin Charts.  ExchB's shutdown was the big news today, but several of the little guys have given it up recently as well. We're down to Mt. Gox, Tradehill, and Btc-E now.
here is a list of exchanges.
Quote
Now look at the volumes in dollars.  The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E.  And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.

you really are disgusting Nagle.  the volumes on the y axis at BitcoinCharts are in Bitcoins, not USD.  for example go there and look at just Todays Volume=28,592 BTC or 66,225.74 USD.  thats an extraordinary profit.

Quote
Tradehill apparently has a real organization and staff, but revenue is comparable to a half-time job at McDonalds. That can't last. Btc-E, forget it. Mt. Gox has some business in other currencies, but the numbers aren't that big.

The end is in sight.

how much do they pay you to be stupid?
17369  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: October 20, 2011, 01:37:11 PM
   Me thinks people spend too much mental energy arguing such things.

  It's pretty easy to spot the bear shit while walking through the forest. Even if you can't see the bear, you would still reconize it as bear shit and would avoid stepping in it. right?
  It probably smells too, especially if its fresh. Just sayin'.   Smiley


   Cheers

you're absolutely right.  focus on the fundamentals.  no blockchain disruptions.  no security experts like Dan Kaminsky have found ANY holes in the code.  no major failures at mtgox since the one time hack.  innovations continue to appear everyday.  Bitcoin marches on.
17370  Economy / Speculation / Re: Exchanges shutting down on: October 20, 2011, 01:31:47 PM
Take a look at all those black bars on Bitcoin Charts.  ExchB's shutdown was the big news today, but several of the little guys have given it up recently as well. We're down to Mt. Gox, Tradehill, and Btc-E now.

Now look at the volumes in dollars.  The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E.  And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.
 
Tradehill apparently has a real organization and staff, but revenue is comparable to a half-time job at McDonalds. That can't last. Btc-E, forget it. Mt. Gox has some business in other currencies, but the numbers aren't that big.

The end is in sight.

It is clear that one should not open a casino without deep pockets...

But this has to be spin in the worst way because I can not believe you would be so gone on your calculations otherwise.

First of all, the commission is taken on both the buy and the sell side of the transaction. So, let's take the example of TradeHill...

Monthly Dollar Volume: $619,375
.054% X 2: $6,689 per month.

Not $810 per month. Admittedly, nobody at TradeHill is getting rich, but the nominal per capita GDP in Chile for 2010 was $11,828/year. That could provide a few middle class salaries there. Much better than a McDonalds worker in the U.S.

Seriously dude, why would you skew this so much? It does nothing but harm your credibility. If you want to make the case for the death of Bitcoin at least show some real numbers.

its long been my contention that the only way to explain Nagles dedicated participation here on this forum is that he is a paid troll.  there is no other way to justify the amount of time and energy he spends here.  look at his pathetic website one day and ask yourself why he doesn't bother to post more than once a year on his own creation?
17371  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: October 20, 2011, 01:17:55 PM
its very simple and straightforward.  guys like Nagle and Shinobi and the rest of the Bears should take the free money at $2 via all the shorts they can get their hands on and wait for the price to go to zero.  its a foregone conclusion.

Nagle: "This thing is over."  "Get out now!"

there has never been an easier way to make USD's than right now!
17372  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: David G.W. Birch talk at the European Bitcoin Conference Prague 2011 on: October 20, 2011, 01:12:48 PM
being from the US i like #1
17373  Economy / Speculation / Re: Denial on: October 20, 2011, 01:05:22 PM
would the Bears like Nagle and Shinobi please short into the bid wall at $2 and take it down?
17374  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bull trap? on: October 20, 2011, 01:01:44 PM
anyone see a bull trap on the charts?

or could it be we finally bought all of Bruce's coins and the price is free to float up now.. hehehe

Bull trap?  thats so yesterday.  todays play is the Bear Trap.
17375  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: October 20, 2011, 12:57:27 PM
yeah, but this is different.  at Bitcoincharts you can see the order book.  look at the USD amount stacked up on the bid side esp. at $2.  if all those buyers decide to hit the ask side it would wipe out the entire book and the shorts will get hurt badly.

I'm part of the $2 bid 'wall', simply because people run around this forum chanting things about The Manipulator.  Well, it sounds like a fun game.  I want to have a snazzy title too.

I can assure you I have no intention of raising my bid from $2.  If anything, I'm going to drop it if the asks approach $2 at a rapid pace.  I almost pulled out when the 'wall' was sniffed at $2.04.  I also have no shorts and will not consider taking any out in a commodity as highly variable as bitcoin.  Back in September we saw hacked accounts being used to wildly swing bitcoin's price.  It swung 50% within minutes.  That's an insane market to short.

yes.  maybe i should start manipulating too.
17376  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: October 20, 2011, 05:58:56 AM
I would hope an 'expert' such as yourself would at least know that most of those buy walls are fake. 

why don't you try shorting into it?
17377  Economy / Speculation / Re: No, There is no manipulator on: October 20, 2011, 05:37:53 AM
why don't you just knock down the wall?
17378  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: October 20, 2011, 05:33:13 AM
The title of the post made me laugh. Typical pump-and-dump penny stock newsletter will often pump a penny stock like that "the thing is gong higher because of short squeeze..." (although I don't think BTC is completely a penny stock).

yeah, but this is different.  at Bitcoincharts you can see the order book.  look at the USD amount stacked up on the bid side esp. at $2.  if all those buyers decide to hit the ask side it would wipe out the entire book and the shorts will get hurt badly.
17379  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Am I the only one here... on: October 20, 2011, 05:18:13 AM
LOL.  It says something about this forum that I knew you were talking about posts like mine and not the OP of that thread.  Because of course a tinfoil hat thread about sinister forces marshaling to drive down prices is a quality contribution, whereas any post that hints at the facts in front of your face being a natural (and predictable) consequence of weaknesses in the project has to be trolling. 

Hilarious.  I'll report to my masters (a shadowy cabal of bankers and global power brokers) that you're onto us and Operation Post On A Web Forum will have to be aborted.  Stand by for phase two:  Operation Send Out Some Tweets.

It just strikes me the amount of energy you invest in something you consider a failure.

not to mention the fact that he views an up and down move in a fledgling currency in a short 6 mo of a 3 yr lifespan an indicator of failure.  LOL!
17380  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: October 20, 2011, 05:05:22 AM
imagine that all those bids at $2 get impatient and decide to wipe out all the ask side book.  if you're short, you're gonna get killed.
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