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1741  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 20, 2014, 01:20:45 AM
Payment received as usual.
It is the sixth month that I join this campaign,Stunna pays me every term with every posts,he never cut off any post ,every term I got paid with the amount I claimed ,everything went smoothly!
I request ,I am really really really appreciate this.Just want to said :Thanks,Stunna,thank you.
1742  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 央行官员:比特币在未来有存在空间 on: June 20, 2014, 01:14:28 AM
那为什么看K线 今天早上6点左右外盘遭遇一轮急跌呢?
市场开始对消息具备免疫力,这是一个好现象。
不过央行人员表态,这也是一个不小的利好。
1743  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: Bitcoin 高質技術討論專區 on: June 19, 2014, 04:49:42 PM
OP,这里有一个技术问题。
如何计算实际的51%的攻击概率呢? 全文见http://blockindex.info/blog/51.html

bitcoin创建到现在总计产生30多万个block, 我们可以用这30多万个block的时间来估算51%攻击实际的概率和需要的时间

以下以6个confirm为例,来计算实际可能的概率

正常的 blockchain, 我们称之为C

[]----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[] C blockchain
诚实节点计算的 A blockchain

攻击节点计算的 B blockchain

[]----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[] A blockchain
        \
         []----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[]----->[] B  blockchain
分别计算每连续6个block的生成时间间隔:

t1 = blk5.time - blk0.time t2 = blk6.time - blk1.time ..... tx = blkn.time - blk(n-5).time

这样得到100%算力的C的连续生成6个块的时间集合 {t1,t2,t3....tx} TC1

然后用同样的方法计算连续生成7个block的时间间隔, 得到100%算力的C的连续生成7个块的时间集合 {t1,t2,t3....} TC2

对TC1绘图,得到正常的C blockchain 连续生成6个block时间分布曲线

x为连续的6个block

y为生成连续的6个block的时间

时间分布曲线


对时间排下序得到下图,可以得到连续生成6个block需要的最少时间和最多时间

时间分布曲线


然后对T1计算,每间隔10秒内Tx的数目, 得到{len(T1...Tx),len(Tx+1....Tx+n)....},得到密度分布曲线,如下

时间分布曲线

上图可以看出连续生成6个block需要的时间

每隔20000个block分别计算密度分布,难度应该变化10倍左右,算力变化x倍,发现block生成时间密度曲线基本重合


 
把A和B看成一个独立的blockchain,则 A,B生成block概率的密度分布应该和C一致,但是由于A,B的算力下降,所以把时间轴等比缩放,

A 连续生成6个块需要的时间集合{t1,t2,t3....} TA = TC1 * 100/(1-49)

B 连续生成7个块需要的时间集合{t1,t2,t3....} TB = TC2 * 100/(1-51)

时间分布曲线

得到A,B的曲线(左边为A,右边为B),和A可能的连续生成6个block的时间集合TA,和B连续生成7个block的时间集合TB

现在问题转化为在TA中随机选一个时间,大于TB中任意元素的概率

代码如下:

AB为有序集合,从小到大依次排列

AB中任意取元素a,b, 计算a>b的概率

def AB (A,B):
    N = []
    qz = 0.0
    for i,a in enumerate(A):
       n = 0
       for b in B:
          if a<=b: break
          else: n+=1
       N.append(n)
    return  float(sum(N))/(len(B) *len(A))
实际的计算结果

51% 算力攻击, height高度为280000~300000, 20000个block的生成时间密度计算成功的概率为

z=0 P=1.000000
z=1 P=0.25991752883
z=2 P=0.327356211643
z=3 P=0.362791063488
z=4 P=0.38572021231
z=5 P=0.402129295953
z=6 P=0.41492854999
如果觉得20000个样本不够,那么以height高度为200000~300000的, 100000个的生成时间密度计算成功的概率为

z=0 P=1.000000
z=1 P=0.258909623337
z=2 P=0.327897207064
z=3 P=0.363898341947
z=4 P=0.387023480539
z=5 P=0.403786580212
z=6 P=0.416886094841

全文见http://blockindex.info/blog/51.html
1744  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 能否用已有的300000block生成时间来计算实际的51%的攻击概率呢? on: June 19, 2014, 04:48:55 PM
技术性问题可以跟@jh2012共同探讨
他的自管理板块:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=657678.0
1745  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 坚决阻止mt破产关门的一切犯罪阴谋 on: June 19, 2014, 04:27:29 PM
 坚决阻止mt破产关门的一切犯罪阴谋 ,任何逆历史潮流而动的挣扎都是徒劳的!
1746  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 关于mt交易所重新开门的一个类似故事-----补牙还是拔牙 on: June 19, 2014, 04:21:02 PM
看来OP是Mt事件的受害者,而且肯定有不少财产在他们那里吧,只能默默地说一声支持你们维权了。
1747  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 19, 2014, 03:54:08 PM
Enrolled but not in list.

Follow these steps,it works for me.

Since I was able to get on the 'claim payment' list and 'enroll' list successfully, I'm gonna outline the basic steps to follow. Hopefully that'll help some of you  Smiley

If you're claiming payment today:

1) Go to the google doc - http://bit.do/Primedice

2) Select 'Collect payment'. Click 'continue' fill out the form and submit. That should get you on the claim payment list.


If you'd like to re-enroll for the next term.

1) Go to google doc again.

2) Select 'enrolling' this time. Click 'continue' and fill out the form then click on 'continue' again. That'll bring up the claim payment page again.

3) Do not fill out the claim payment form again. Leave it blank and just click 'submit'. That's it. Should get you enrolled for the next term  Smiley
1748  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 19, 2014, 02:18:23 PM
@Stunna A small suggestion. Rather than posting the registered people's name in the thread, which is difficult to track, it would probably be better to post it in a .txt file with last date of update, upload it on PrimeDice server and share the link on the opening post.

p.s. Magnified in the hope that this post catches your eye... Wink
But another question is how to keep this .txt file updated? If Stunna manually do this matter everyday ,it will be very fussy.
1749  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 19, 2014, 02:05:40 PM
Users enrolled for next term:
[www.bit.do/primedice.]
Thank you for the list update,finally see my name on the list. Smiley



I've found four grollls in the list and just one hilariousandco... Cool

I've seen 4 grollls, 3 bcmine, 2 byt411 and 2 marnem. Wink

Still, I'm surprised by the number of people enrolled in this campaign; I thought there would be far more by now. On the other hand, perhaps a good amount of participants still hasn't noticed the new rules?

There were 115 non-empty entries above (thanks Excel). Where those the only duplicates?  If so, Stunna has 108 subscription for the next month Smiley

We can figure out how larger this campaign is, Smiley   but in contrast the other campaigns are small with maximum participants.
1750  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 关于mt交易所重新开门的一个寓言故事 on: June 19, 2014, 01:54:47 PM
我觉得交易所的破产及其相关程序不能简单用普通公司的法律程序来执行
比特币具有特殊性,现实的普通公司,不可能挪用投资者的现金然后声称破产吧?
1751  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 坚决阻止mt破产关门的一切犯罪阴谋 on: June 19, 2014, 01:42:25 PM
前几天好像说 破产后 美国和加拿大用户会得到赔偿 我想知道中国玩家怎么维权?
1752  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 17, 2014, 04:57:00 PM
No one talk about the rate? Smiley
I remember Stunna said will rise the rate in this term.

Why so greedy? Rates can stay the same in my opinion since we are so many members.

Wish he would reward the people that have stuck with PD from the beginning though.

just curious.


Yeah,I am the one stuck with PD from I joined this campaign.
1753  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 17, 2014, 04:38:38 PM
No one talk about the rate? Smiley
I remember Stunna said will rise the rate in this term.
1754  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 17, 2014, 12:34:43 PM
Stunna, could you please update the list again , just want to confirm whether I successfully re-enroll this time.
1755  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 17, 2014, 11:54:34 AM
I filled both the Enrollment and request payment few hours ago but can't find my name in the updated“Currently enrolled for next term” list?
1756  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 汇丰银行正在招聘懂比特币的实习生 on: June 17, 2014, 10:00:52 AM
不知道在中国有没有招呢?
我还担心太接近比特币的话,去银行面试会遭到歧视呢。当然因为这里是中国。
1757  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / FBI正在转移他们的比特币 on: June 17, 2014, 07:39:11 AM
 :)14万比特币被转移了

https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH

1758  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: I want to send you some Bitcoin on: June 17, 2014, 06:59:37 AM
China

1Efr4xUrNYN2gNAKw6Lc1Yck8N2kggXzq2
1759  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 796时间 on: June 17, 2014, 06:56:29 AM
大户被爆仓就要求赔偿,让我想起房价跌了,砸售楼部的楼主.       活该大户爆仓, 之前爆了那么多小散,散户被爆找谁说理去.
房价跌了那些人还情有可原,因为是短期内突然暴跌。
而这些无良大户,玩杠杆爆小散就知道爽,现在自己被爆就知道要讲理了。
1760  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 内控这个东西,在这个比特币行业是个大问题 on: June 17, 2014, 06:50:32 AM
投资者素质跟不上,决策能力偏低,风险控制能力较弱的情况下还玩杠杆无异于作死,特别是有一些人把家底都拿出来玩了。
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