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i think its coming; very, very soon.
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i have pulled out >1000 btc at a time.
recently? like today or last night? no, not that recently. i highly doubt they're having financial difficulties given the rates they charge and their recent philanthropy with the Bitomat issue and their donations to various vendors. |
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Thanks  Yea there seems to be a divergence between price and volume. It is interesting looking closely, there seems to be a sell off every 24 hours, then shortly after the volume disappears. huge ramp in my TBT. the UST selloff is real. this changes everything. |
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20d hourly chart of /GC note the high volume spikes on selloffs rising wedge as well. we're gonna get a stepoff somewhere along here: Any chance you could post a graph with volume?? I wanna see what the vol for the last 6 hours.   |
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legging into gold shorts. sorry; no parabolic blowoff top to bullion and no spike down. just a slow grinding slide down the slope of hope.
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i have pulled out >1000 btc at a time.
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I like the part about the fraudulent system. Even add a little dramatic pause before you offer the solution...
***************
To those Occupying Wall St (To those Occupying Wall St) Please Listen Up (Please Listen Up)
You're upset with the banks (pause) yet you keep banking with them.
You're upset with the Federal Reserve (pause) yet you keep using its fiat money.
You're upset with Wall St. (pause) yet you keep buying their stocks.
The banks may have built this cage (pause) but you have locked yourself inside.
There is an alternative (pause) to this fraudulent scheme! (pause)(wait a second) It's called...Bitcoin!
It's a decentralized monetary system (pause) no person controls it (pause) no corporation controls it (pause), and no government can control it.
It is without borders (pause) It is not subject to inflation (pause) It is money controlled by the people.
If you care to end this corrupt system (pause), come learn about Bitcoin!
We're giving away FREE Money (pause) and we'll teach you how to use it.
Bitcoin will end the banking monopoly (pause)
Thank You.
***********
i would vote for this being the final iteration. |
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Great. i think the transitions can be extended just a bit longer for new viewers to think about each slide. maybe one second longer...
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Needs more bite... try this:
**********
To those currently occupying Wall St. - Please Listen Up
You're upset with the banks, yet you continue to bank with them.
You're upset with the Federal Reserve, yet you continue to use its fiat money.
You're upset with Wall St., yet you subsidize and support continue to buy their stocks and invest in their financial engineering them every day.
The slave who merely grumbles while he endures his enslavement does not advance his own freedom. The banks may have built the cage, but you have locked yourself inside.
There is an alternative to this fraudulent scheme that imprisons you - it's called Bitcoin
It's a decentralized monetary system - no person, corporation, nor government can control it. It is without borders, agenda, or undue influence. It is not subject to inflation or deflation.
If you care to end the lecherous corrupt system that has grown fat off toils of society our backs, we invite you to come over and discuss.
We're giving away some free donations of this new currency - and we'll teach you how to use it.
Bitcoin will end the banks, if you care to try it.
Message finished.
***********
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as Bitcoin continues to take off, these guys are going to be at the forefront and deservedly so.
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Don't screw up the Occupy movement with Bitcoin junk. They're doing something important. Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme on the way down.
you and 2112 need to pack up and go home. forever. |
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from Gary Shillings (one of the greatest UST bond investors of all time) last letter:
"Nevertheless, we've never, never, never owned Treasury bonds for their yield. We couldn't care less what it is as long as it's going down since we're after appreciation, the same goal pursued by most stock investors. And that appreciation has been powerful for three decades. Chart 50 shows the results of investing $100 in a 25-year zero-coupon bond at its price bottom in October 1981 and rolling it into another 25-year zero each year to maintain that maturity. The $100 compounded at a 19.1% annual rate to $18,700 in August. In contrast, $100 invested in the S&P 500, bought at its trough in July 1981, compounded at an 11.5% annual rate on a total return basis to reach $2,418. The bonds gained 8.0 times as much as stocks since the early 1980s!"
the question is where it goes from here?
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i'm interested in your thoughts on yesterdays UST sale by Ben. was this part of OpTw since he was selling short term bonds the proceeds of which will be invested in longer term UST's? what perverse effects on the markets do you think this will have?
i think there is a bigger story unfolding here. personally, i think TLT has topped. i believe in symmetry and patterns. note the small double top with the right top just higher than the left top? where have we seen this before? oh yeah; gold! my TBT short has been doing well the past several days and i'm into that big. i think this was a sell the news event much like late last year when Ben announced QE2. this could be a big winner in the biggest bond bubble of all time. Any asset can function as money when better or more convenient options have been exhausted. Gold is a real/physical asset whose primary function serves as money. When I call gold an asset, it can be assumed that I mean: a real, tangible, effectively indestructible, counterparty-less, turn it around in your hand and see it for yourself, value imbued throughout history, closest thing to abstract representation of money in the physical world, absolute best physical option for use as both store of wealth and metric of value, won't kill you or disappear in a puff of smoke, consistent asset. Real estate requires maintenance, paper burns in flame, wheat can be eaten, oil is highly toxic, rocks are very common and manufactured tools don't have the same value for everyone. Maybe gold could be called a real derivative? Productivity and wealth created by the use of other assets and labor flow into it, yet it's still a physical object with decentralized control and ownership; the original Bitcoin. I'm going to quote this next time. its a good quote. For the week ending today, October 7th, looking only at the price gives a heavy picture. It's reasonable to expect further gold price drops in the immediate future. Combining price with volume, the direction is less certain, throwing almost a 50/50 chance. This is where open interest is critical, despite the fact that it's only the OI for the COMEX futures. For as long as it remains the dominant futures exchange, it is a basis for overall global market trading comparison.
As discussed yesterday, the open interest has been declining gradually - almost no forced or panic liquidation since the end of last month, and even that wasn't very significant in size. That measured decline is normal, whereas a sharp drop would be leveraged players being squeezed out or underwater longs cutting losses. What this means is that it's virtually a certainty the remaining contracts are what form a normal baseline for the market, like hitting bedrock while digging through topsoil. Further liquidation of size is therefore simply not in the cards.
From analysis above, it's easy to see that price is important, but it is only one metric. It's a representation of capital flow. Volume is necessary to determine the overall strength of capital movement. Open interest provides a measure of how much movement is left. It's entirely possible to use only the latter two as trading guides (V & OI), but then you wouldn't have any way to know how much you gained or lost when closing a trade.
In the middle of a move, it's possible to use the above three factors to gauge how far the shift can go in either direction. When at extremes, they show the buying and selling ranges. I prefer certainty over just getting the "feel" of a market. The way I see it, advanced price chart analysis in the form of Elliott waves and such (beyond trendlines and Fibonacci levels) are attempts at extrapolating the interplay of volume and open interest from the price itself. That makes sense for equities and other asset classes, but why bother with divination when those values are readily available for commodity markets?
this is all good info. we all use our own tools. i agree the pm charts look heavy. my interpretation however completely disagrees with yours. no surprise. i interpret the decreasing volume along with slowly rising price as a warning; a divergence as i've drawn on the chart below. todays action was very bearish to my eye and we could soon rollover again. you can even see a crossover on the stochs and a rollover of the RSI  I will if you can explain how gold itself is a Ponzi scheme when it promises nothing nor returns anything. What is the dollar, if not a Ponzi scheme - a promise that pieces of paper have exchangeable value even though the material itself has no unique physical properties? you're right. i've used the same argument for Bitcoin.
Wait... are you advocating faith? Where are these lines of buyers for gold? You're right that the decision comes down to the individual. This entire thread has been an excellent opportunity to test theories, assess assumptions and reaffirm conclusions; not to mention it's been entertaining as well. Thanks!
no, thank you! didn't you say several times that the once the avg Joe comes to the party the price will skyrocket?
Yes. Where is he? Busy working, unemployed, going back to school instead of reading all about gold and finance? precisely why i don't think he's coming to the gold party. i still think we've topped in gold and silver. the silver chart break just looks too ugly to me with 2 sharp breakdowns. silver and the stocks lead gold as well. b/c Iseree said so.  LOL - well, that changes everything. Enjoy the weekend! i didn't mean to be dismissive here but my rationale is based on just what you hate most; technical analysis. i think the pm's have topped as i said above. they still represent a good short. i think TLT may have topped as well in a long term double top. i own TBT in a big way as a short. and here's the kicker; i agree with Iseree in that i think stocks rally from here based on the following chart divergences and volume analysis as i've drawn and my cycle analysis which shows a confluence of different cycles bottoming right here. i know it sounds crazy and impossible and i may be wrong but i think we get one more bounce in stocks for a few months and then we get the big down leg where everything gets in gear to the downside with the $DXY skyrocketing. if stocks rally then the $DXY may come back down to test the consolidation channel from where it broke out. next week will be big in that if stocks do a nosedive down out of the bear flag then everything i just said is wrong and we go straight to hell from here. if you need a reason stocks might rally then think about where the money coming out of gold and UST's needs to go. i don't think it just goes to USD cash just right now. i think it goes to stocks which are oversold at this point and at a prime cycle point to turn up. despite all the bad news. but after this rally armageddon begins.  |
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Operation Twist. A maneuver designed to keep debt payments low, but it locks in a longer range of debt, putting the problem off yet again (hopefully).
i'm interested in your thoughts on yesterdays UST sale by Ben. was this part of OpTw since he was selling short term bonds the proceeds of which will be invested in longer term UST's? what perverse effects on the markets do you think this will have? Gold is money, not real estate. The participation rate in gold is still marginal as compared to its market size as a whole. This is the opposite of a saturated market as real estate was in the mid-2000s. you've said its money, an asset, and a real asset over the life of this thread. i see differences in each of those categories which i've said all along is the cornerstone problem with how you look at gold. which is it?
glad you brought this up. a more sophisticated analysis of the volume show an increasing volume on the days of selloffs. this means there are more interested sellers.
I'm sure you won't mind sharing the methodology for this "more sophisticated" analysis. no more sophisticated than yours. go back and check out both daily gold and silver charts. on the down days the volume spikes are higher than on up days. that means more sellers than buyers in aggregate helping to drive the price down. Perhaps there was a misunderstanding as to what I mean by declining volume. The following two charts are for gold and silver. Data is from Kitco for the PM London price fix; open interest and volume numbers are from CME Group's data. Percentage differences in movement were calculated from each day versus the prior day's numbers. It is evident that the volume for the selected duration peaked on 09/23 for silver and 09/26 for gold. Since then, daily volume has been falling with price remaining range-bound. The spike on 10/04 was the near-$100 and $2.50 hit gold and silver took.  The red lines for open interest are of particular interest. They should've declined sharply along with the prices, but didn't. Instead, they have only continued a gradual descent - in silver's case, it has even begun to rise again.  The arrow shows the declining volume with the price drop. Remember that all data points are relative to the origin, not absolutes. those are helpful graphs. just another way to look at the price charts i use that have volume and OI at the bottom. yours have a bit more interesting info that is useful. you've got to stop dissing the "price". after all, how do you measure your wins vs losses? certainly not by volume. this is a classic excuse when fighting the tape. its for amateurs. i believe the price action is setting up for the next leg DOWN. silver 2nd leg down recently is telling you what gold is going to do very soon.
Ok, gangsta dictator. I'm pointing out that reliance on price charts and the patterns formed from them alone is folly. Bear trap setups in gold and silver are in place and their trigger is imminent. Refusal to incorporate data beyond the price is akin to judging a book by its cover. The tenuous connections being applied to market sectors are misinterpreting the interplay between volume, open interest and price. This dynamic is critical to grasp, in combination with supply and demand in the precious metals industry itself. Things are not so complex as the financial wizards have made them seem, even though their deceit and trickery are. i never said "only" look at price. other pieces of info are helpful of course but i still think price is paramount. as an example: the entire stock mkt rally from 3/09 ws a low volume rally with higher volume spikes on selloff days. if you were short and refused to follow price vs volume, you got killed. this was the greatest rally since 1932; a doubling in price for massive gains. i've learned over the years not to fight the tape as long as several confirmatory factors line up as you're suggesting. real investing means taking all available info into acct both technical and fundamental. Deflation will trigger additional defaults. Assuming there will be nothing done, it is reasonable to expect increasing social turmoil and a self-reinforcing downward spiral of declining business activity. That outcome is bad for everyone. Government's entire purpose is to protect its constituents. If government does nothing, it receives the brunt of backlash. The chances of inactivity are negligible. Reductio ad absurdum. Pain avoidance is the simplest path, except for masochists. i've always said this is possible.
How does this equation not apply?
(Decreasing Supply) + (Rising Demand) == (Rising Prices)
just be sure to take into acct Ponzi Dynamics. Foss is right; theres no way a price chart can crash so quickly in so short a time unless these dynamics are in place.
What data other than price chart patterns implies a continued decline in the precious metals? Not to exclude the possibility of another sharp drop, but there hasn't been anything else offered which points to gold and silver going down for the count. Instead, there's ample evidence that the PMs are due to rise very powerfully.
this is where data can't help you. sure the data looks good and lines up for your case and this is where i think my housing analogy of lines of buyers can be helpful. at some point you have to resort to your underlying thesis: is gold money or just another asset, ie, tail of the USD dog? what is the role of Bitcoin here longterm? this is where we can agree to disagree. The big issue is that most of the ideas put forth have been based on price charts and patterns without much solid explanation behind the analysis. My position is such that the remaining days of summer in the northern hemisphere are meant to be spent outside rather than running numbers.
come on now. all you've put forward is a slew of Comex data backed by tomes of bullish interpretation. i could argue you have tunnel vision in regards to the gold data w/o a worldwide view. the price charts are important and i've backed my interpretation up with a slew of general economic data into which gold interplays. those 69% of Americans (peak housing participation rate) that bought anywhere btwn 1999 or so and 2007 are screwed into the biggest debt instrument of their lives. they won't be coming to the gold or HI party.
And that precludes upward gold revaluation how? didn't you say several times that the once the avg Joe comes to the party the price will skyrocket? my cycle work forced me to take profits on my pm shorts this am. i think we get a relatively large stock bounce here with the pm's.
we may be in for a multi month run up before the final fall. this is golds last chance to clear its previous highs. lets see if it can get there.
Ok... why? b/c Iseree said so. |
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slothbag,
I've been bitching about the inflation rate and printing off bitcoins at a rate that would even make the Federal Reserve squirm... you'll be preaching to deaf ears.. people here won't listen to that type of logic.
And you've still never addressed the following - the money printing rate was the same (actually higher in percentage terms) when bitcoins were priced at $0.01 and at $30. Of all the variables in the Bitcoin economy, the printing rate is NOT one of them. It's perfectly steady, yet you seem obsessed with attributing a declining market price on that aspect. It's as if you're inferring that Bitcoin has lost its way because we're now printing so much money  If and when the price rises again, people will start complaining instead about bitcoin being "deflationary" - not printing fast enough. Price rising? "Bitcion will fail cause it's deflationary." Price falling? "Bitcoin is doomed because we're printing so much money!" While I love a skyrocketing price as much as anyone, for those who understand the true value of these coins, this falling price is a blessing. Be greedy when others are fearful (although I hate quoting the socialist, hypocritical Warren Buffett). LOL! I knew you would be the one to reply to this one I did address it... the printing money rate isn't the same as the adoption rate, not even close. picture this, because this is what is happening (i'm going to use simple figures rather than the real ones for simplicity sake). ------- January - 5 bitcoins printed - 10 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - price rises February - 5 bitcoins printed - 11 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - prices rise faster March - 5 bitcoins printed - 20 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket April - 5 bitcoins printed - 4 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices tank May - 5 bitcoins printed - 3 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices tank Jun - 5 bitcoins printed - 2 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices tank. ------ July spot price - 5 dollars If it was able to be adjusted ----------------- January - 5 bitcoins printed - 10 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - price rises February - 5 bitcoins printed - 11 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - prices rise faster March - 5 bitcoins printed - 20 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket April - 1 bitcoin printed - 4 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket May - 5 bitcoins printed - 30 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket Jun - 5 bitcoins printed - 45 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket ------------------ July spot price 50 dollars. In the above, by taking action for just one month (April) and reducing the amount printed it changes the whole dynamics of it... the end result would still be 21 million coins at the end, just stabilize it to match demand and keep the asset price growing... because when people see the price booming more start entering... hence increasing demand. That's very troubling sentiment... manipulating the money supply is precisely the reason fiat currencies are destined for failure. There is no legitimate reason to manipulate the price higher and higher. It may provide short term happiness to those holding coins, but it distorts the market signals that free-floating prices provide. Such manipulation would be the end of Bitcoin's value. The movement of prices are not arbitrary. They allocate and coordinate how resources are utilized. If the supply rate of Bitcoins were restricted in order to assure a constantly rising price, you'd instantly create a speculative bubble, for every investor would buy as many coins as possible, knowing the price will be "managed" upward. The price would skyrocket - but to what end? Are Bitcoins worth $50 right now? Or $1,000? None of us know. And when that bubble you produce pops, the devastation will be ruinous. The ability of the price to fall is JUST AS important as the ability of it to rise. Tinker with it one way or the other, and you distort human behavior. If you think you're wise enough to distort it in a positive way, then you're suffering from the same affliction and hubris of all fiat central bankers - believing they are smart enough to know the "proper" market price of any asset. It is folly. And it's precisely because so many fall for the myths of central planning that Bitcoin is so necessary, and so valuable. The day the money supply is tinkered with (including the derivative rate of such supply), I'm gone. I'll peace out like the Lorax. evorhees is right. |
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If the banks default on people's money, BANG goes the trust in the USD and banking sector. People will want trustworthy real assets and no more derivatives. No, I don't think people will stuff paper notes under their bed.
we may be in for a multi month run up before the final fall. this is golds last chance to clear its previous highs. lets see if it can get there. |
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i don't think so b/c the correlations are so tight. US banks have alot invested in Euro debt. also look at the carnage in european stock mkts.
Relatively speaking do you see EURUSD continuing down into 2013? ...and the rate accelerating? Or, why not? my cycle work forced me to take profits on my pm shorts this am. i think we get a relatively large stock bounce here with the pm's. answer no, not right now. |
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What about European HI and American deflation?
i don't think so b/c the correlations are so tight. US banks have alot invested in Euro debt. also look at the carnage in european stock mkts. |
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i sure hope you're not saying my pt was silly. i think we're saying the same thing. think about it, if you feel HI is right around the corner, the best thing to do is to go out and take out the largest most leveraged loan you could get, typically a mortgage (most favored tax haven), and buy as many houses as possible. the banks got seriously hurt in the 1970's by giving out too many easy RE loans which got inflated away. this is one of my critical pts; they aren't going to repeat this mistake by leveraging up and spraying USD's all over the economy. and if you don't get HI, how is gold going to go to the moon?
Yup, that would be the most rational thing to do if you were sure that inflation was coming. Not even hyperinflation. Just regular old steady inflation of more than about 4 or 5% would be enough to make that a profitable play. My point was that even if Jesus himself showed up in person to tell everyone that hyperinflation would be starting in a month, housing would not be the place that most people would go to, because they are still smarting from the hard spanking they just got. Because of that, the chart of real estate loans can't really be considered evidence that people don't expect inflation. I have a habit of picking on bad arguments, particularly ones that are made in support of a view that I favor. but this is a major pt in favor of deflation. there was no greater amt of leverage poured into an asset class of the system by the plebes than residential RE. those 69% of Americans (peak housing participation rate) that bought anywhere btwn 1999 or so and 2007 are screwed into the biggest debt instrument of their lives. they won't be coming to the gold or HI party. |
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whereas the last graph showed a hook with a small gasp of a rebound, this chart has clearly rolled with no signs of coming back up. ask yourself, what is your biggest personal asset? if you're a home owner this one is easy. therefore, if no one is taking out RE loans to buy more houses this means that house prices are going to continue down. if we were threatening hyperinflation, everyone and their mother would be rushing to the banks and borrowing to buy a house (a tangible asset whose loan would inflate away, ie, a free house).  This one is pretty silly. Half the country just got burned badly by the real estate market, and the other half knows someone who did. Even if "Hyperinflation will start tomorrow" was written in flaming letters across the sky, people wouldn't be jumping back into houses. In my view, the people that are sure that hyperinflation won't happen here are just as crazy as the people that are sure that it will. The US economy and the US dollar are seriously fucked up right now. The current condition cannot continue much longer. There will be a change, a big change, and it has a pretty good chance of getting nasty. But, as bad as things are, it is still the best game in town. The importance of this global view cannot be overstated. There will be no apocalypse while the US remains the safe haven. So, while the doomsayers are right that the US appears to be doing everything it possibly can to usher in a serious bout of hyperinflation, it won't happen today, or tomorrow. It might not ever happen at all. i sure hope you're not saying my pt was silly. i think we're saying the same thing. think about it, if you feel HI is right around the corner, the best thing to do is to go out and take out the largest most leveraged loan you could get, typically a mortgage (most favored tax haven and favorable terms), and buy as many houses as possible. the banks got seriously hurt in the 1970's by giving out too many easy RE loans which got inflated away. this is one of my critical pts; they aren't going to repeat this mistake by leveraging up and spraying USD's all over the economy. and if you don't get HI, how is gold going to go to the moon? |
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