i'll reiterate.  if you follow the minute by minute ticks of the USD vs almost everything else (i follow oil, the Dow, gold, silver, and a few currencies) you'll see an exact inverse correlation.

this means that these markets are not based on fundamentals but purely on speculation of further liquidity injections (criminality) from the world's central banks.  in other words, these f*ckers allowing you to be raped.  as a result of this i actually think that price means everything.  in other words the techinicals trump the fundamentals in this particular situation.  you almost cannnot reason what the markets will do.  you have to follow what they are doing.  otherwise, you will get raped.  and what they are doing is going down.  

where is the evidence that they're being forced to monetize on a large scale that anyway resembles the magnitude of the outstanding bad debt worldwide?  Ben has only pumped a mere $2T.  add up the $54T in private debt plus the quadrillion or so of derivatives overhang?  they haven't, they aren't, and they won't.

speculation on your part.  right; the avg Joe is about to explode his debt overhang by going out to borrow to open a trading acct?  are you dreaming?  proprietary desks are NOT all the rage. they have been cut back severely and their trading profits as evidenced in the primary dealers quarterly reports have been hurt badly.  why do you think they're having to finally cut bonuses and fire employees just now?  right; just kick leverage higher.  they can't.


i told you this thread is moving away from speculation as to what you think the Fed/gov't is going to do.  what are they doing.

take look at this from the FRBNY's summary report.  look at bottom right chart.  see just how little fiscal support is coming into the economy.  in fact its gone negative:



ditto above graph

don't you have any imagination as to where that upward spike may be headed?


rehash gov't consumption graph above.

2007:  "the lines of ppl around every new home model tract waiting to put down a deposit to secure a home scheduled for delivery 6 mo from now is a sure sign that home prices will continue up.  God only made so much land you know."


glad you brought this up.  a more sophisticated analysis of the volume show an increasing volume on the days of selloffs.  this means there are more interested sellers.

you've got to stop dissing the "price".  after all, how do you measure your wins vs losses?  certainly not by volume.  this is a classic excuse when fighting the tape.  its for amateurs.  i believe the price action is setting up for the next leg DOWN.  silver 2nd leg down recently is telling you what gold is going to do very soon.

you also need to read Nicole Foss's post completely where she explains bubble dynamics which you completely ignore:

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

"Changes in supply and demand do not typically occur rapidly, but changes in perception certainly do, and it is perception that drives markets. If the fundamentals of supply and demand were responsible for setting prices, we would not see price collapses over a matter of months, yet this is exactly what we saw in 2008. "

and exactly what we're seeing in 2011.


you're right; its not an option, its a fact.


there you go again.  lots of ppl think that ALL information is embedded in price.  why should i believe your opinion?  why do you think i call you misreality?

yes; pay attention to volume on selloffs vs up days.  again, the setup is down.


Occam's Razor


you can't ignore price.  thats called denial.

and yet you throw up a series of price charts to prove a point?


i have commented on the first two which i think are bearish and i keep track of warehouse inventories which is supportive of dwindling supply.  i don't keep track of the other categories largely b/c i think they're irrelevant b/c they are so opaque. but i know that on the face of it they're suportive of tight supply.  i'm not arguing that they are not supportive of your argument but i see enough other data to think we've topped and close to beginning the next leg down in the metals.  we could get a small bounce here but its looking pretty weak, esp silver, and i suspect we get another plunge very soon.

we agree


come on hugolp.  how can you say he fails?  the story has just gotten started.  first of all he was right about the deflationary shot over the bow we got in 2008.  the story is not nearly over b/c of the only partial retrace we've gotten since as evidenced by the S&P 500 which has resumed its rollover.  when it undercuts the 3/09 low you'll be singing a different story about Keen's deflationary predications.  also look at the hook downs in all the economic charts i just put up.  deflation is going to be here for at least half a decade or more.

in this particular time, deflation is definitely occurring via the contraction of credit which is the vast majority of the money supply.

i just showed you the graphs to prove it.

Steve Keen would even argue its the rate of change thats important.  a slowdown in the rate of change is all thats required to throw everything into reverse.

deflation=a decrease in the amount of money + credit marked to market.  answer:  yes.

now this ones a little harder.  flip all the other charts over top to bottom and what do you get?

10yr weekly chart.  just to make this argument complete, guess what chart this is and compare it to the above economic charts.

now look at this 15 yr weekly chart of the S&P 500.  stocks lead the economy.  see that hook DOWN over at the far right?  what does this tell you about where we're headed?  we've formed a huge downsloping head and shoulders formation over the last 10yrs which is extremely bearish.  again, if the economy and stocks tank, what will happen to gold which is also hooking down?  

this is precisely why Whirlpool looks as sick as it is.  no manipulation of this price chart.
lines up pretty nice, eh?

you mean you're not going out and buying refrigerators, washing machines, ovens, etc?

how's your income by the way?  inflating?  i think not.  and you're not alone.

here is a 10 yr gold chart with a hook at the end.  now i ask you, how much different is this price graph than the economic data graphs i just showed you?  gold is just a reflection of whats going on in the economy with speculation added in i submit.

the all important category of asset backed commercial paper. critical funding for businesses leading up to 2008.  what does this mean; inflation or deflation?

commercial paper funds businesses.  no business lending, no economy.  no economy, no inflation.

in uncertain times such as now, investors want the ultimate liquidity and safety of cash. they want to be free to take advantage of the next best thing which at this point is not certain.  not a speculative investment like gold thats at the end of its bull run.

why is all this money fleeing from money market funds into bank deposits?  its b/c investors are scared.  scared that another fund may break the buck or that their European bond investments will go kapoof.  in other words, investors are fleeing into the USD and not much else.

is money moving thru the economy normally?  or is all of it going to magically go into gold?

are ppl going out and consuming as if their USD's are going to be worthless?  no.

financial stress is rising once again.  do these spikes occur in inflationary or deflationary times like we saw in 2008?  more importantly, will the banks lend in this environment?  no.

in all fairness i should show this one too.  however, its been well documented this consists primarily of student loans.  higher ed has gotten away with murder way longer than it should have primarily by selling the story that if you don't get a degree you won't be able to compete in this new recession type economy.  this is a sham and the link to Seton Hall shows this is rapidly coming to an end.