http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/shilling-sees-evidence-of-deflation-in.html

"the Fed is out of bullets"

in addition, there are NO AVAILABLE SHARES TO SHORT OF GLD at Fidelity.

another deflationary development:  junk bonds have gone into the tank since July.  small businesses?  toast.

where's the growth and jobs there?  inflation?  i think not.

well, i think that the silver price and pm stocks lead the gold price so i expect further lows in gold.

if the bankers have already been bailed out (debatable yes) then a deflationary crash would allow them to buy things up at the bottom for pennies on the USD, yes?  at least those able to survive.  i think they've made plans for this scenario.

USD up, everything else down.

for the second day now, retailers and momo stocks are going in the tank.  this is bad news.  we're on the verge of going down big.

i also see that AMZN and AAPL have cracked.

well, this is sure to bring out all the howls.

i put on my first UST short via TBT a few minutes ago.  there have been a couple of compelling articles published recently about a double top in UST's and you know how i like technicals.  THIS is what could be different than 2008.  and i think it will also help in creating a stronger USD.

to the truly observant that have been following this thread and what i have been saying, its clearly obvious that all markets including pm's are moving inversely to the USD almost on a tick for tick basis.  this is the inverse correlation i have been talking about.  IMO this means the USD is the dog and all other markets including gold are the tails.

this is also a very dangerous situation as the fundamentals of individual companies or markets don't really matter.  in fact, the inherent value of gold/silver doesn't matter either.  if the the USD decides to skyrocket, gold/silver will tank along with everything else and vice versa.

we're due for a correction in markets so you know what i think.

@miscreanity:  you know, i haven't read a post of yours for a long while now that i agree with more.  everything you said in that last post is true and we agree on alot of things.

where we do disagree though is what you said yourself. we're in a new age of volatility where i think markets will prevent the Fed and gov't from walking the thin narrow line you think they'll be able to in order to achieve price stability.  that would be too easy.  i believe in cycles where markets swing from extreme to extreme, ie, boom bust, panic to greed, giddiness to despair.  this is how traders make money.  they will force these swings to strip the little guys of their money.  we're at a price peak now; we'll be at a price trough in a few years.

but whether you invested btwn $9-12 as i did or 20, 30, 40, or $49, the fact that the price has fallen 41% from its top is an invaluable piece of information as to where the long term price is going.

i just did.  that inflationary bubble was built on debt expansion, not printing.  we've topped out and cannot take on anymore debt as individuals and as nations.  that is why you're seeing all the financial turmoil over the last decade.  2 stock mkt and one ongoing housing mkt crashes. 

we've entered the Age of Deleveraging where that debt will be written down.  it can no longer be marked to model and will soon have to be marked to market and with that will come a great contraction in the USD money supply (currency plus debt) driving UP the value of the USD and all asset values DOWN.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/china-loan-shark-market-crashes-scores.html

if these loan defaults pick up speed, just how much discretionary Chinese income do you really think will be able to go into gold?

those are yearly graphs.  are you not now detecting a change?  you're thinking linearly but fail to consider whats happened to overall markets since Feb of this year.  ALL markets are rolling over one by one as i've outlined ad nauseum in this thread.  sure you can just look at yearly charts as the forest and refuse to look at the trees inside.  but if you did you'd see rot forming on the trunks and branches.  its spreading fast and soon the forest will get consumed.

ask yourselves this:  for much of the 40yr since the US depegged, the Fed's balance sheet stayed relatively the same size and was mostly composed of UST's.  yet the USD kept dropping.  why?  b/c of the debt expansion, not printing.  since 2008 the Fed has only added 2T to that same balance sheet, a mere pittance vs the total amt of USD denominated debt accumulated over those same 40 yrs. 

now if that debt starts contracting via defaults as the graphs clearly show AND the Fed cannot or will not monetize it, what will the USD value do? 

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

we are getting widespread defaults worldwide.  inflationists like FOFOA like to poo poo the housing bubble dynamic.  but  think for a minute just how did the world develop such a large overhang of debt the last 4 decades?  it was due primarily to residential real estate.  for the average person a house is the first and only investment of a significant size in his lifetime.  as GDP started its inexorable decline in the 1980's, banks had to figure out how to get the avg Joe, and not just corporations, into the debt game in a big way.  that way was thru mortgages.  by keeping a cap on interest rates, Greenspan slowly encouraged an ever expanding housing bubble during his reign that accelerated exponentially btwn 2002-2007 after the NASDAQ crash.  secretaries were taking out USD million dollar loans to finance a house flip.  that drove housing prices to the moon as well as leverage.  Wall St leveraged these same instruments up even more in the form of CDO's, CDO squared's and all other forms of derivatives.  now that the housing bubble has burst defaults are happening worldwide thus contracting the USD money supply.  Ben already did his best to try to reinflate the bubble but it didn't work.  he cannot do anymore due to self preservation and political constraints.  this is why there has been no more QE.   we have hit the debt ceiling limit.

with those same low interest rates, speculators took cheap money and speculated in all other forms of assets including gold.  and even you yourself admits gold is an asset.  it is not the worlds reserve currency.  the USD is and 60% plus debt in the world is USD denominated.  as the Age of Deleveraging sets in all assets will get hit and repriced lower.  its inevitable.

both Weimar and Zimbabwe did not have developed debt markets like the UST market.  they had to print.  the UST market is the largest and biggest debt market the world has ever seen.  but its debt based and not currency based.


everyone is scrambling for USD's right now, not gold. i've already linked to numerous Bloomberg articles attesting to this fact.  gold/silver is dropping and the $DXY is rising.  whats it gonna take to convince you this is the dynamic that is happening?


do you really think i was serious?

actually what they use is USD's   

d*rn that USD!  look at all the problems its enabling!

that is the path they chose to get money out into circulation and that choice was made under duress of the post War depression.

the US on the other hand, has created an astronomical amount of USD denominated debt over the 40 yrs since we depegged to get USD out into circulation during a mostly expansionary and favorable economic environment.  this is a distinct and clear difference btwn what is present now and what went on in Germany and Zimbabwe.  these are not paper USD's that can't vanish from the system or be burned in a furnace.  these are virtual debt USD's that can vaporize once the borrower defaults on the loan and the bank has to take the loss.  this decreases the USD money supply which is composed of the currency plus that same debt.  this drives up the USD value which we're seeing now and throws into reverse the bubbles we've seen the last 40 yrs in stocks, commods, RE, bonds, and gold/silver.

i've noted that virtually everyone here as well as myself has invoked the "manipulation" theory as to why the price of pm's has been hit recently.  i also see this throughout the gold punditry blogs.  this has sparked plenty of emotions and animosity amongst all discussants.

but one has to remember that i have also outlined a clear, well defined, and logical analysis as to why gold may have peaked out here in the absence of manipulation.  and it has to do with the vast amounts of USD denominated bad debt that is contracting worldwide decreasing the number of virtual USD's in existence thru defaults.  as evidence of this just look at worldwide mortgage defaults along with the derivative instruments leveraged off of them.  the Fed's printing so far to the tune of $2 trillion since 2008 is small pittance compared to this.  this is the deflationary argument that is playing out across all markets and gold/silver has not been spared.

MatthewLaMe:  no dipshit.  b/c the USD debt destruction is happening faster than what little printing Ben is doing.