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1761  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 05, 2012, 06:54:19 PM
I just sold my mined stash at 10.40. no regrets. great price to get.
I just cannot picture the price going up enough to make holding worth it.
More downside then upside.

Wow, tell me what other asset you are holding that is better than bitcoin!?
1762  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Preparation for the inevitable on: September 05, 2012, 01:10:53 AM

Can you be more specific? How exactly does Bitcoin present danger to a nation state (more than cash or gold or paypal or dwolla)?


More specifically coins are not a threat to a nation state but rather to those that control and profit from control of fiat money supply.  Indeed gold is an apt analogy, as if people started using gold as transaction currency the money masters would be no longer able to take as much value from the people as they wished.  A brief review of the banning of gold ownership is merited. 


Indeed, gold is the best analogy to bitcoin because it is both scarce and not controlled (in an outright way) by the nation states. However, I am convinced that through the use of the massive reserves that both the IMF and the governments around the world have, they are manipulating the price of gold as they please. The difference with bitcoin is that it has no historical precedent and the governments and other major players have not had the time to invest in it (nor the need to do so... yet).

For this reason bitcoin is actually a much safer hedge against inflation (or global fiat currency meltdown) than gold imo.
1763  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Preparation for the inevitable on: September 03, 2012, 09:53:12 PM
If not, what is the contingency plan for when this happens?
The sites move to TOR. Problem solved.


See my earlier response. User adoption suffers tremendously as a result. This is not a scaleable solution.
1764  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Preparation for the inevitable on: September 03, 2012, 09:51:36 PM
2. Wire transfers and other traditional forms of transferring (large amounts) of money to such services becomes prohibitively difficult and adds yet another layer blocking user adoption.
Not if they use a trading system like bitcoin.de: buyers transfer money to sellers directly.

Obviously this requires users trusting eachother (the site works with a trust / rating system, which works pretty well btw) but there are no fiat transactions to or from the service provider anymore. Their fees are entirely paid in bitcoins. The sire could operate completely anonymously.

bitcoin.de... is also hosted on a domain by the largest economy in europe. This will clearly also be on the list of sites to take down (once they decide that is necessary).
1765  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Preparation for the inevitable on: September 03, 2012, 09:49:55 PM
I think this issue is blown out of proportion. If certain exchanges are shut down, there will be others. There will be classifieds, craigslist, etc. for in-person exchange. Besides, shutting down exchanges would likely drive up adoption of btc as direct medium of exchange, without intermediate conversion to government fiat. Finally, more and more people - including smart individuals in governments have vested interest in Bitcoin. They see its value for personal reasons, but also in the bigger picture.  Bitcoin in itself is not that big of a danger to anyone, it is more of an opportunity. Think Internet.

It is an enormous danger to any nation state. If you dont control the currency, you dont control the country.
1766  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Preparation for the inevitable on: September 03, 2012, 09:47:20 PM
Who said anything about one government acting alone?

They can't even shutdown Pirate Bay. Bitcoins will be hard for them to stop without shutting down the entire internet.

Should a government act against bitcoin, it would drive the price through the roof.

How would prices go up, if the infrastructure which supports these prices was removed?
1767  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Preparation for the inevitable on: September 03, 2012, 07:58:16 PM
Who said anything about one government acting alone? Just take a look at what happened to Assange and you will see that in the world today when something threatens even just one nation state (the US in this case), they can exert very heavy diplomatic pressure to ensure that it is a coordinated shutdown takes place (and in this case, many governments will be acting in their own interest, together). Make no mistake about it, when it happens it will be come without warning and be so swift that the market will not even have time to react. It's clear that there are other safehavens in the world that might become a haven for such businesses to continue, but at the moment, the businesses are simply not there. They are exposed in a huge way simply by residing in developed countries with interests in keeping trade in their own currencies. At the least this means a bottoming of the price and stagnation until these businesss can relocate to setup elsewhere. My question revolves on how to avoid such a scenario by creating a resilient infrastructure now.
If you're worried about it start competing services in one of those safe haven countries. You'll either encourage the current market leaders to diversify their risk similarly or else they won't and you'll end up with all their business.

If it didnt mean dropping everything to move to a country where I know noone (and likely don't speak the language), believe me, I would. This thread more than anything is an appeal to those who might already reside in one of those countries.
1768  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Preparation for the inevitable on: September 03, 2012, 07:30:49 PM
If the amount of people using bitcoin continues to go up as it has along with corresponding increase in services, at some point it will become an honest threat to the sovereignty of the state. At this point, the states (the powerful ones anyway) will have no choice but to intervene and shut down all of the services (mtgox, glbse, bitinstant, this forum etc) that users depend on in order to facilitate exchange within and between currencies. My question is: Is it possible for this decentralized currency to build out an equally robust and decentralized service infrastructure? If not, what is the contingency plan for when this happens?
One government acting alone could not take down all the websites, since they could just be moved to other countries and/or run as Tor hidden services.

The US government could make it difficult or impossible for companies like Mt Gox, BitInstant, and BitPay to operate with USD bank accounts but that wouldn't neecessarily mean the end of those services - there is more than one currency in the world. An adverse legal climate in the US might only have the effect of making those services devote more of their efforts towards expanding other markets like Europe, China, Japan, India, Brazil, etc.

Who said anything about one government acting alone? Just take a look at what happened to Assange and you will see that in the world today when something threatens even just one nation state (the US in this case), they can exert very heavy diplomatic pressure to ensure that it is a coordinated shutdown takes place. Make no mistake about it, when it happens it will be come without warning and be so swift that the market will not even have time to react. It's clear that there are other safehavens in the world that might become a haven for such businesses to continue, but at the moment, the businesses are simply not there. They are exposed in a huge way simply by residing in developed countries with interests in keeping trade in their own currencies. At the least this means a bottoming of the price and stagnation until these businesss can relocate to setup elsewhere. My question revolves on how to avoid such a scenario by creating a resilient infrastructure now.
Making the entire network operate through TOR may hide the exchange servers. But would you trust such hidden servers?

Potentially, yes I would. But there are still at least two issues with this:

1. User adoption goes back to the old days because people had a hard enough time figuring out how to use bitcoin, now they have to know how to use Tor as well... not an ideal situation.
2. Wire transfers and other traditional forms of transferring (large amounts) of money to such services becomes prohibitively difficult and adds yet another layer blocking user adoption.
1769  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Preparation for the inevitable on: September 03, 2012, 07:23:43 PM
If the amount of people using bitcoin continues to go up as it has along with corresponding increase in services, at some point it will become an honest threat to the sovereignty of the state. At this point, the states (the powerful ones anyway) will have no choice but to intervene and shut down all of the services (mtgox, glbse, bitinstant, this forum etc) that users depend on in order to facilitate exchange within and between currencies. My question is: Is it possible for this decentralized currency to build out an equally robust and decentralized service infrastructure? If not, what is the contingency plan for when this happens?
One government acting alone could not take down all the websites, since they could just be moved to other countries and/or run as Tor hidden services.

The US government could make it difficult or impossible for companies like Mt Gox, BitInstant, and BitPay to operate with USD bank accounts but that wouldn't neecessarily mean the end of those services - there is more than one currency in the world. An adverse legal climate in the US might only have the effect of making those services devote more of their efforts towards expanding other markets like Europe, China, Japan, India, Brazil, etc.

Who said anything about one government acting alone? Just take a look at what happened to Assange and you will see that in the world today when something threatens even just one nation state (the US in this case), they can exert very heavy diplomatic pressure to ensure that it is a coordinated shutdown takes place (and in this case, many governments will be acting in their own interest, together). Make no mistake about it, when it happens it will be come without warning and be so swift that the market will not even have time to react. It's clear that there are other safehavens in the world that might become a haven for such businesses to continue, but at the moment, the businesses are simply not there. They are exposed in a huge way simply by residing in developed countries with interests in keeping trade in their own currencies. At the least this means a bottoming of the price and stagnation until these businesss can relocate to setup elsewhere. My question revolves on how to avoid such a scenario by creating a resilient infrastructure now.
1770  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Preparation for the inevitable on: September 03, 2012, 06:58:44 PM
If the amount of people using bitcoin continues to go up as it has along with corresponding increase in services, at some point it will become an honest threat to the sovereignty of the state. At this point, the states (the powerful ones anyway) will have no choice but to intervene and shut down all of the services (mtgox, glbse, bitinstant, this forum etc) that users depend on in order to facilitate exchange within and between currencies. My question is: Is it possible for this decentralized currency to build out an equally robust and decentralized service infrastructure? If not, what is the contingency plan for when this happens?
1771  Other / Meta / Re: "Long-term offers" - gonna have to tackle this 1 eventually on: September 03, 2012, 03:48:00 AM
Nothing wrong with a crackhouse




Need I say more?
1772  Economy / Speculation / Re: The recurring trouble-cycle of bitcoins, and why I'm here. on: September 03, 2012, 02:22:51 AM

Bitcoin is something that can usher in world piece as a two edged sword - it removes the monetization possibility that enables war, and it keeps people in the rational world, where they do business together and benefit each other.  Rational people are that much harder to propagandize, and would revolt if their economic success were cut off because of politicking.

1773  Economy / Speculation / Re: How deep do you expect the price to fall? on: September 03, 2012, 01:56:46 AM
The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  Wink

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why  Huh
1774  Economy / Speculation / Re: How deep do you expect the price to fall? on: September 03, 2012, 01:46:29 AM
The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?
1775  Other / Meta / Re: "Long-term offers" - gonna have to tackle this 1 eventually on: September 01, 2012, 05:20:32 PM
Agree.
1776  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years? on: September 01, 2012, 04:54:59 PM
http://www.shamoon.me/post/29347988378/bitcoins-to-break-5-000-btc-in-20-years - based on this post, it seems economically sound to predict that the price will break $5,000 in 20 years. What do you think?

I don't think this can be the case. Not with the current state of things. The only way this would be possible is if you will be wiping your ass with 20 dollar bills because they will have no value left...

Not true. The dollar (and other currencies) will still hold similar value. The market caps are so far out of line at the moment that an increase to 5000/btc would do little to the value of the national currencies.
1777  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 01, 2012, 05:16:39 AM
Im having trouble seeing what the point of this war is

Control of the exchange and the value of bitcoin.

Right, but if one side has USD, they are the ones that can effectively push the price up... The converse is true for the bitcoin side. What is the point of doing so (as it goes against their interests)?
1778  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 01, 2012, 04:45:04 AM

I think its been clear for a long time now that at least 1 new big player has entered the market

and he means business.

Hints?

the way wall after wall was bought up, ( the very start of lift off from 5 )
the way we bounced back so fast when pirate dumped from 9 to 7 last month.
the way the falling knife was caught at 8ish and quickly bought up back to 10.

if you've been paying attention you know its not just 1 guy.

theirs a war going on.

one side has USD, the other bitcoins

you can bet your ass that the USD side will never run out of ammo

Im having trouble seeing what the point of this war is
1779  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 01, 2012, 03:50:13 AM

where did the wall go?

Maybe he read the forums where everyone was predicting 7-8  Embarrassed
1780  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 01, 2012, 03:22:45 AM




they don't realize what going to happen to their pyramid when everyone at the bottom simply walks away.


+1
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