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17641  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 21, 2011, 05:20:26 PM
However, the moves do not reflect a weakening of the intrinsic credit quality of Bank of America

Bwahahaha!
17642  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 21, 2011, 05:05:11 PM
note how the Marketwatch article came out 15 min after BAC tanked.  criminality at work.
17643  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 21, 2011, 05:00:37 PM

ah.  thanks.  didn't need the headline.  just saw the chart tank.
17644  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 21, 2011, 04:54:04 PM
this is deflation at work.  those excess reserves can't possibly come out from the banks.  look at the stock asset destruction of the banks esp this AM.  they NEED those excess reserves to stay alive.  they might not be enough...
17645  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 21, 2011, 04:49:00 PM
there goes WFC as well.  i doubt much QE will be forthcoming.
17646  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 21, 2011, 04:33:09 PM
something very bad is going on at BAC right now.
17647  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 20, 2011, 07:04:38 PM
However, as has been pointed out various times in this thread, higher aggregates will evaporate in our economy, which was not possible in the Axis economies. Paper money just kept piling up.

those paper marks were not debt and could never be cleared from the economy thru default.  USD debt however is vaporizing as we speak decreasing the amt of virtual USD's.

Sure, if debt were simply debt. Securitization has changed debt into a form of money - it now functions as such.

There is a difference between debt that is simply extended credit which can be withdrawn, and debt that is effectively monetized by market actions. The Fed's printing is really just a formality, so it doesn't matter whether it continues or not (although pressure will persist for it to proceed).

gold bulls are making a big deal about Operation Twist and how the extra liquidity is going to drive gold much much higher.

Cause and effect are reversed here. Again, the functional monetization has already taken place. Gold is not dependent upon the formality of the Fed introducing monetization to maintain liquidity; everything is already in place for gold's upward revaluation. The base monetary inflation is reactive and simply locks that fate in.


the contraction in the shadow banking system of securitized debt argues against those same securities effectively acting as money.  they're contracting from defaults:

17648  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: September 20, 2011, 01:59:54 PM
Top of the morning, everyone!  Awaked to the beautiful ramped price up what 60% or so off the bottom?  Love the smell of Burning Bears!

About 30% from this week's low. 40% since 9 Sept. Have we been lower? Anyone worried this puppy just went parabolic?

6.62 from 4.18 = 58%.  sorry off by 2%

no such thing as a parabola at these bombed out levels.
17649  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: September 20, 2011, 01:55:12 PM
a few recent bullish factors:  squashing of the alt chains, Gavins patches to prevent similar vulnerabilities like DDoS protection and Geist Geld fix, bottoming out in sentiment via selling capitulation, Congressional mention of Bitcoin.
17650  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: September 20, 2011, 01:49:43 PM
Top of the morning, everyone!  Awaked to the beautiful ramped price up what 60% or so off the bottom?  Love the smell of Burning Bears!
17651  Economy / Economics / Re: Naked Short Selling Bitcoin on: September 20, 2011, 04:45:53 AM
Look, there's no polite way of telling someone that they are loosing touch with reality.

i actually do wish to hear your views on the perceived weaknesses in the protocol
1) bitcoin as an abstract idea and its current valuation in terms of FIAT currencies: I talked next to nothing about this

I only wrote about inconsistent use of big-endian and little-endian values in the protocol. This is pretty much it. It is a non-controversial issue, core developers pretty much agree with it, but consider it very low priority.

Perhaps if you sit with a friend and read the history of my posts, you'll understand that.

Perhaps you won't do anything like that, and you will continue seeing the world as filled with two kind of people: good (bitcoin supporters) and bad (attackers of bitcoin).

I feel that you are on your way to become another logansryche.

from your posts you seem to take offense to anyone who disagrees with you. 

if the Satoshi client is so messed up why don't you do something about it besides wasting so much time here bashing anyone who is positive on the technology?  your constant complaining is annoying.   create your own client or if bit coin is such a bad thing create your own alt chain and divorce yourself from this forum where more positive ppl of Bitcoin are surely to congregate much to your chagrin.
17652  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 20, 2011, 03:43:40 AM
Securitization has changed debt into a form of money - it now functions as such.

at the peak of the 2008 bubble securitization fx'd almost like money but this has not been the case since the financial crisis. this is where inflationists miss the deflationary argument.  they think these bad debts still represent liquid money and not debt.  most of these securities have become illiquid b/c everyone knows they represent bad debt and not money; which is why the Fed had to buy most of these bad securities from primary dealers.  but this monetization actually contributes to a deflationary spiral as they drive interest rates down to ZIRP thus disintermediating the interest rate function.  John Hussman writes very well on this subject.  all the Fed has done is replaced interest bearing securities with 0% cash and the banks make even less than they would have. they have no good investment options to put this cash into except maybe commodities since 2009.  even this has now come to an end. NIM or net interest rate margins get crushed hurting the banks which borrow short and try to lend long.  the Fed interventions further creates a deflationary spiral by encouraging speculators to pile into the debt mkts trying to front run the Feds actions that drive up the price of these bonds.  they don't care about the yields.  this steals productive capital from the private real economy and the lower interest rates perversely drive up the existing value of the fixed rate debt overhang of many corporations which they have to reflect on their balance sheets.  these same speculators would rather own things like UST's which are guaranteed by the US govt and are highly liquid moreso than gold which is why you're seeing the TLT go up while gold struggles.  these same speculators and banks won't lend this same money to consumers like you and me b/c they know we're toast; we have no good economic options available to us in aggregate going forward.

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There is a difference between debt that is simply extended credit which can be withdrawn, and debt that is effectively monetized by market actions. The Fed's printing is really just a formality, so it doesn't matter whether it continues or not (although pressure will persist for it to proceed).

no idea what you're talking about here.

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gold bulls are making a big deal about Operation Twist and how the extra liquidity is going to drive gold much much higher.

Cause and effect are reversed here. Again, the functional monetization has already taken place. Gold is not dependent upon the formality of the Fed introducing monetization to maintain liquidity; everything is already in place for gold's upward revaluation. The base monetary inflation is reactive and simply locks that fate in.

no its not if i understand you correctly here.  you're claiming existing debt is equal to money.  this is wrong.  during the good times debt instruments were so liquid they were almost considered like cash; no more.  the debt has become bad debt which is now defaulting and decreasing the virtual USD supply and thus the total amount of USD's in the system thus driving up its value.

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The question has been posed before, but wasn't answered: if gov't has the power to permanently maintain a low price in gold, why did it rise at all? In fact, why do these crises even occur?

perhaps the Fed regarded this as a small price to pay to reinflate the markets.  doesn't mean they are linear thinkers as well.  at this point they see the danger in letting it ramp to $2000 or higher.

these crises are occurring b/c of constant Fed intervention causing boom bust cycles by suspending the business cycle.

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Other than that, I agree with your and netrin's assessment. Also, gold will be sold - but with dollars unreliable as a store of wealth (again), that (massive amount of) capital will flow into gold.

deflation will prevent this from happening.  we're seeing the start of this right now.

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The gold price analysis I'm describing has already been explained in detail; cypherdoc, maybe you could post your most clearly explained analysis to make assessing the accuracy of differing methods easier to follow.

my OP and this entire thread has been clear where i stand.  deflation, the end of the gold bull and a multi year rise in the USD.
17653  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 20, 2011, 03:05:29 AM
cypherdoc is basically suggesting banks will purposefully destroy themselves to "save the dollar". I think such action would be good for gold as well. This will never happen though.

thats not right.  thats your interpretation of what i've been saying.  i'm saying the CB's of the world led by the Fed will actively try to save the USD world reserve currency system by targeting the gold price. 
17654  Economy / Economics / Re: Naked Short Selling Bitcoin on: September 19, 2011, 11:50:00 PM
Could you point me to a concise and preferably online (being Belorussian I have a hard time ordering from them amazons) sources pertaining to "The public psychoanalysis of those well-known executives" ?
I just find that turn of phrase intriguing...
I'm not aware of anything like this. Fuckedcompany.com was a prominent fixture of the first dot-com buble. This is where I first read John Nagle's analyses. Its maintainer Phillip "Pud" Kaplan made a number of technical errors and all the archives are lost forever. I'm afraid that simply you had to be there or you had to know somebody who was there. Only a lore remains, you could probably search for mentions of "Bay Aryan", the premier satirist in that community.


oh, so you're a follower of Nagle's?  that explains everything.  i don't agree with him either.
17655  Economy / Economics / Re: Naked Short Selling Bitcoin on: September 19, 2011, 06:45:50 PM
This is exactly what I'm talking about:

I talked about the ones I've met and they were uniformly 100% in the spectrum of incompetents, fly-by-nights & fraudsters.
100% of bit coin supporters incompetent, fly-by-nights & fraudsters? thats quite an insult to everyone around here.

The emotions inhibit understanding. I haven't met you nor anyone else on this forum.

This whole fracas reminds me of the good old days of fuckedcompany.com. I remember marketing executives making emotional pleas in the same style as yours: intentionally distorting their mother's tongue. Commenters were joking "shiftless!", "undercapitalized!". After months of back and forth the dirty laundry was finally taken out for everyone to see. The public psychoanalysis of those well-known executives was really interesting and educational: this is an early warning sign.

The whole psychology of this is really worth studying.

please point out my "emotional pleas".  my original post to you was written in respect of your self proclaimed expertise in the technical arena.  i actually do wish to hear your views on the perceived weaknesses in the protocol but instead got back a venomous emotional response to a simple request.  i pointed out my interpretation of Gavin's post which is contrary to yours but still accurate in my opinion.  your response makes me question your integrity on this issue.
17656  Economy / Economics / Re: Naked Short Selling Bitcoin on: September 19, 2011, 05:15:01 PM
it appears you as a technical person potentially sees more than i as an investor.  but i have some serious concerns about your claims.
[...]
you obviously think  you're seeing something specific to Bitcoin.  i would love to hear something more concrete.
I've met investors, I've met gamblers and I've met investors who occasionally liked to gamble. Your way of arguing puts you in my opinion clearly in the gambler group. It is hard to argue with somebody, whose emotions are so tightly wrapped up that his heart aches anytime somebody says something unfavorable about your beloved bitcoins.

If you maybe try to untangle your emotions a bit you'll notice that when people talk about bitcoins, they actually talk about different things:

1) bitcoin as an abstract idea and its current valuation in terms of FIAT currencies: I talked next to nothing about this
2) bitcoin as implemented by the "Satoshi client": I talked a lot about this, I consider this implementation very bad, and the sooner somebody else implements full bitcoin protocol in a clear, modular and understandable way, the better it will be for everyone with exception of scammers and various guerilla-job-safety-C++-programmer types.
3) bitcoin as represented by its promoters and supporters: I talked about the ones I've met and they were uniformly 100% in the spectrum of incompetents, fly-by-nights & fraudsters.
4) something other that I neglected to think of.

Anyway, the Bitcoin Disneyland is now open: https://bitcoin.org.uk/forums/ . There the threads that may hurt your feelings are clearly marked ATTACK ON BITCOIN. Bitcoin enthusiasts and supporters have now option to play amongst themselves in a safe environment that is professionally moderated by one of its own.

wow, and i thought i was actually being nice to you. 

who's being emotional?  contrast my post with yours.  sounds like you may have had some alt chain coin at risk.

100% of bit coin supporters incompetent, fly-by-nights & fraudsters?  who the hell are you?  thats quite an insult to everyone around here.  clearly you can't provide any concrete examples that i nicely asked you for.
17657  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 19, 2011, 04:24:49 PM
With deflation, extant interest rates are more valuable to the lender and crushing to the debtor.
+1  this is why i don't think bankers let HT happen.

I've just finished Adam Fergusson's 1975 book on Weimar Germany, Austria and Hungarian HT. The parallels are alarming and the US is not at war to the extent of WWI and German's reparations, though current US military budget approaches Germany's debt to Versailles relative to GDP. However, as has been pointed out various times in this thread, higher aggregates will evaporate in our economy, which was not possible in the Axis economies. Paper money just kept piling up.

you're developing the proper perspective.  this is exactly why the Weimar marks just given to me are STILL worthless after all these years and despite the age.  those paper marks were not debt and could never be cleared from the economy thru default.  USD debt however is vaporizing as we speak decreasing the amt of virtual USD's.

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What we are seeing and I think will continue to see are larger and larger bubbles and busts. Investors will be scrambling from one volatile market to another. The dollar is strong, and the UST are selling like hot cakes, in my opinion because it's the only game in town. Europe is not credit worthy at any interest rate and Asia (and everyone for that matter) is depreciating their currencies to prop up exports. In this environment the US can get away with issuing more bonds while lowering its interest rates by buying them with new dollars. The inflationary risk of UST is stifled by the massive flight from the euro.

Catch me please if and where my logic is unsound.

this is correct.  Fed manipulations lead to extreme bubbles/busts.  gold is at an extreme and will crash.  USD short interest is at an extreme and will skyrocket.  the interest on the short end of the yield curve is now negative!  investors are now paying for the privilege of buying UST debt.  why?  b/c it is the most liquid mkt of all.  gold bullion IMO is the most illiquid mkt.

gold bulls are making a big deal about Operation Twist and how the extra liquidity is going to drive gold much much higher.  price action tells us differently  in fact, i invoke Antal Feketes paradox; the mere fact that the speculative players know that the Fed will be entering the long end of the mkt encourages them to front run and buy more UST's at lower prices to then flip them to the Fed and American taxpayer.  hows that for a paradox and non linear thinking?  this will just make matters worse for the general economy b/c the gov't UST mkt is acting like a huge black hole vortex sucking all capital into itself thus killing business and the real economy.  

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The US has created a very risky but profitable scenario. They will continue to issue bonds, indeed they must as long as the budget is unbalanced, and can keep the rates low by buying many of them back with new M0, thus slowing down the appreciation of the dollar which will be applauded by the US export industry, workers, and politicians. I don't see what would pop this transparent ponzi bubble. As long as the USD appreciates against gold, money will continue to flood in to the US, interest rates for many foreign bonds will increase until default, which will pump UST even more.

What possible scenarios would decrease demand for UST and what would force the interest rate up?

precisely the dynamic you espoused above; the bottoming out of the impending bust cycle when the Fed and gov't will be forced at the bottom to print even more and thus cause a HT.  but this will take about 5 yrs before we get there.

i was listening to FSO and the Ryan Puplava interview on the way into work this AM.  he said that the scramble for USD's is so intense that banks are now lending out their gold to get ahold of USD's.  how's that for a brain twister?  THIS is how bad the USD crunch is.  you see it all over the headlines now with CB's having to coordinate to provide USD liquidity.  problem is they can't do it and they don't really want to do it.  they want to save the USD.

in fact this gold lending will eventually lead to gold selling as i predict.

also the famous Volcker quote that the CB's failed back in the 1970's to "suppress the price of gold" as being a mistake.  why can't the gold bulls take that statement for what it is?  what it is is a lesson to CB's to never let that happen again b/c they lost a lot of money in the HT of the 1970's.  this time they won't let it happen again.  what ever happened to the accepted theory that the Fed used the gold price as a warning sign that their profligate activities were getting out of hand?  everyone assumes they've forgotten that tenet but i say they haven't.
17658  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 19, 2011, 02:01:12 PM
this is the 4th break of gold below $1800.  i think it could very well be its last.  added to my GG short at 52.34 this am.

The $DXY successfully tested the 76.20 mark and is ramping hard today.
17659  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MTGox unfair business practice. on: September 19, 2011, 03:47:20 AM
He fixed the problem and he is a good guy. System is automated for phising. Everything is aok!

great!  now change the title of this thread to reflect that.
17660  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin video demonstrating advancements in the bitcoin universe on: September 18, 2011, 06:57:41 PM
also:

- the most visible bitcoin person is a convicted fraudster
- mybitcoin scam
- moonco.in scam
- mtgox hax
- IBB being scammed by it's clients left and right
- tradehill


none of this has to do with Bitcoin directly. 
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