perhaps you ought to consider quoting me as i am the only one i know that had predicted this manipulated central bank induced USD rally weeks ahead of it happening
The only one?
yes, absolutely. in the sense of: "perhaps you ought to consider quoting me as i am the only one i know that had predicted this
manipulated central bank induced USD rally
weeks ahead of it happening". there is a huge distinction btwn what that lame article you referenced was saying and what i predicted. just saying "i think it might rise now b/c its time" is way diff than saying "why or when" it might rise. the fact that its CB intervention means everything and is precisely why it has ramped so viciously.
Along the same lines, I could predict an earthquake in California and claim that I knew it was coming when it finally happens. Predicting the timing is exceedingly difficult, so I prefer preparation instead. That way, the trap can be sprung when the conditions are right; the reward reaped when there's little to no fight left in the move.
look. i made this call on 8/9/11. IF i happen to be right on this top but happen to be off by only a month and $100 i'd bet most ppl here on this thread would call me "A Legend" looking back at this years from now as opposed to someone just yelling "fire". not that thats my motivation though.
and you know what? i DO smell a trap. or i should say fire. i'm at the back door of the theatre looking back at everyone in their seats fixated on the screen eating popcorn with the curtains on fire. remind me to make a post on pundits and trees when i get the chance.
The distinction here is that gold is not included in the equation. The USD appreciates against the Euro, and both are depreciating against gold.
funny you should mention that. this last weekend when i was debating this with hugolp, i came to the realization that my viewpoints are clearly US centric and based on the USD being the worlds reserve currency. if i were European, i would be more neutral on buying gold as their currencies are going to be hurt thru this next Phase 2 decline. you would then argue that means gold is still a great buy b/c the ROW demand will surely send gold skyrocketing.
however. if you'll recall my inverse pyramid example of how money is created where foreign currencies are inflated via leverage off an inflated USD reserve in good times. in a worldwide deleveraging cycle such as we're going thru now and with an imminent Greek default, foreigners and esp. emerging mkts are going to be hurt even more than us. i could very well see that foreigners will be forced to sell their gold to eat or pay taxes. THIS is what i think the CB's are gunning for and is the clearest example of USD hegemony. a worldwide collapse in the gold markets. obviously i'm betting they'll be successful via brutal liquidity drains and no more QE. they need to save the system that has made them Masters of the Universe.
It isn't the fact that this dollar rally happened that's interesting, but the extent to which it has risen in such a short time.
this came as no surprise to me. not when you predict that the USD rally will come from CB intervention as i have. i have said several times the USD will "skyrocket". this is how markets are manipulated. in the middle of the night interventions when most investors are asleep at the wheel to create maximum psychological impact at the open via a huge GLD gap down; extreme ramps to force margined gold players out of their positions; small descending triangle formations to "tempt" bulls in gold into buying and leveraging up before "the trap" is snapped shut; extreme ramps in the USD to force USD shorts to cover overextended positions; waiting until sentiment reaches extremes before initiating an attack; all the while to create huge profits for insider bank traders that have been notified ahead of time. this is where technical analysis combined with intuition and a thorough understanding of fundamentals, criminality, and sentiment come in handy. i can "see" the setups.
in addition, on 9/6 at 9:24pm, in this thread, minutes after the selloff began i called attention to this as supportive of my theory. Dan doesn't post on his blog until 10:44pm over an hour later.
Being first to scream "FIRE!" doesn't mean there is one.
now you're just being defiant. give me a little credit here. the fact that Dan Norcini and other gold bulls are just now coming to this realization of CB intervention that i had a month ago is significant. there IS a fire. i've listened to Dan every Friday for as long as KWN started after Eric King broke off from FSO. he is an example of a linear thinker. not to mention that he owns a bullion business if i recall correctly which severely biases his views. this is a high stakes game of tactical chess. i'm not just one or two moves ahead of him, i'm twelve moves ahead.
this is old info and has been already invalidated. any technical trader knows this.
Can a technician explain why there are so many conflicting technical signals and so much confusion? Is support the result of a line on a chart or real-world supply & demand? Can that distinction be made from price alone?
you would be wise to not ignore this failed breakout. i've already told you the confusion and diverging signals is b/c we're at a fundamental transition btwn bull and bear markets. as we get in gear to the downside then the picture suddenly clarifies to everyones horror.
the whole fundamental basis of the gold trade has been to escape a falling USD. now that its rising and looks to have broken out to the upside how can you justify further gold buying?
Then why would Europeans be buying gold as the dollar rose against the Euro? Is the entire world buying gold just because of a falling USD? Correlation is not causation. Beware of such linear thinking.
as i said above, i'm neutral about foreigners and gold. i still think its dangerous for them b/c of the
severe drain in liquidity they will experience as the CB's drain liquidity out of the system to kill gold.
There was no US dollar in ancient Rome. Gold protects against instability, especially debasement and fraud.
i used to think that gold would go up in deflation or inflation too. until 2008. i learned. it won't protect in a CB coordinated effort to kill it via a severe drain in liquidity.
Acknowledging those whom we've learned from keeps us from making outrageous claims. Also, I do not have the time to produce every chart and study on my own, so I find those who excel at what they do. It takes time to sift through the chaff to find the wheat. Ah, the magic of specialization and outsourcing!
I could be wrong as well, mostly in the short-term... but I doubt it.
of course you have to learn from these guys which is why i read and listen to all the same guys you do. but heres the thing: you have to learn NOT to stand on the shoulders of giants but learn to stand on your own 2 feet. much of what they're saying is herd mentality and based on linear thinking. YOU are smarter than them. thats one thing i know for sure
i disagree that this bull has to end in a further parabolic move.
... you all now realize that CB's have drawn a big red bullseye on all your foreheads.
That's reasonable to assume; it doesn't
have to end in a parabolic rise. It's the probability of that happening which is very high.
The banks have been targeting gold for centuries because it clearly shows when they've buggered things up. What else is new?
Dan Norcini's article to me is a game changer. the creeping realization that CB's are acting to kill gold should not result in permabulls thinking that just b/c they are aware of the manipulation, then it won't happen. the better response is to sit up, understand the implications of this, and get out of the way now. they will throw the economy under the bus in the name of self preservation. suspicion will turn to realization will turn to doubt will turn to fear will turn to capitulation. this is the psychology of the situation.
See my last statement about gold being targeted. Understand that central banks are net
buyers of gold. The manipulations are to keep the power of gold out of the hands of too many whom the banks can't easily control, assuming a powers-that-be conspiracy hat. On the other hand, the banks are also struggling to survive and thus will attack what they see as a threat to their existence: gold.
ok, everyone listen up, i'll go out on a limb and make my next non linear prediction: somewhere along the line here you'll get an announcement from some CB that they are going to
sell some of their gold. i wish i could give you an exact time but i'd guess somewhere in the range of 6 months. this will further accelerate the panic out of gold and will help serve the interests of the CB's to save their precious monetary system. i KNOW you haven't read this anywhere. who knows? maybe they'll trade gold in for Bitcoin
i like Richard Russell. just not right now.
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