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1781  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: predictions for next hack on: August 04, 2012, 08:05:48 PM
Sourceforge
Didn't this happen already? Hacker claimed access for over 1 year, modified progs, and there was a dump to prove how deep he got.
Yikes...I didn't hear about that one...should be easy to diff and find any nefarious code.
Yes, I was thinking Bitcoin-related hacks. That would be a serious blow.
1782  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Power Blackouts - Does Bitcoin keep on ticking? on: August 04, 2012, 08:04:15 PM
Niko, it seems that things only works with iphone, while bitcoin works on every phone  Cheesy
Doesn't work on my blackberry. Sad

Try an android or tizen or meego based smartphone. They are all based on Linux.

You are all missing my point because you are obsessing over irrelevant details. Here is a relevant detail, along the line of your comments: electricity or not, Bitcoin currently doesn't work for point-of-sale payments. In most places there are zero merchants accepting BTC. But that's not the point of this thread. The point is, could Bitcoin still work in case of blackouts, and if so, could it be more resilient than centralized credit card networks?
My estimate above: no.


Mobile is relevant.

Part of your thoughts on "merchants" is being worked on as you read this.

Mobile is equally relevant for Bitcoin and for credit cards. There is no advantage of one over another in case of blackouts.
1783  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Power Blackouts - Does Bitcoin keep on ticking? on: August 04, 2012, 06:54:57 PM
Niko, it seems that things only works with iphone, while bitcoin works on every phone  Cheesy
Doesn't work on my blackberry. Sad

Try an android or tizen or meego based smartphone. They are all based on Linux.

You are all missing my point because you are obsessing over irrelevant details. Here is a relevant detail, along the line of your comments: electricity or not, Bitcoin currently doesn't work for point-of-sale payments. In most places there are zero merchants accepting BTC. But that's not the point of this thread. The point is, could Bitcoin still work in case of blackouts, and if so, could it be more resilient than centralized credit card networks?
My estimate above: no.
1784  Economy / Speculation / Re: ****$10**** on: August 04, 2012, 01:53:53 PM
It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.

Any chance you could add error bars? From the 6-hour version of the same plot, it seems like they would be significant.
1785  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Power Blackouts - Does Bitcoin keep on ticking? on: August 04, 2012, 01:46:04 PM
At the merchant-customer level, any argument in favor of Bitcoin in case of blackouts equally applies to credit cards.



1786  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Power Blackouts - Does Bitcoin keep on ticking? on: August 04, 2012, 01:28:53 PM
You will need a blockchain, though. Or someone you trust, who has a copy, and whom you can communicate with, and who has connections to other peers.


I believe that is included, if I read this right:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Block_chain


If I am wrong, someone please correct me.

Currently 1.75 GB, and growing.
 http://blockchain.info/charts/blocks-size

Or just check the size of the Bitcoin folder on your PC.
1787  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Power Blackouts - Does Bitcoin keep on ticking? on: August 03, 2012, 10:02:31 PM
The Electromagnetic pulse danger is negligible, since there are plenty of people who could revive the system with a NAND flash device. Geeks are smart enough to think ahead and put the NAND flash into a grounded area away from the pulse.

I know I will.   Smiley The whole bitcoin folder is around 30 MB ( before compression even ) in size at the moment, and easy to put on the cheapest thumbdrive.

You will need a blockchain, though. Or someone you trust, who has a copy, and whom you can communicate with, and who has connections to other peers.
1788  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: predictions for next hack on: August 03, 2012, 07:33:49 PM
Sourceforge
1789  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who is buying expensive bitcoins? on: August 03, 2012, 07:14:52 PM
Not much to add to what was already told here. All I can tell with certainty: it's not me.
As for the theories:
  • someone needs lots of coins right away. For example, to pay people out.
  • someone believes the market will remain bullish, and wants to get on in ASAP
  • someone wants to cause panic buying based on the previous point. Pump and dump.
1790  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Power Blackouts - Does Bitcoin keep on ticking? on: August 03, 2012, 06:40:32 PM
It does if we can begin moving bitcoins offline.

I'm really thinking we may see physical bitcoins in the style of Casacius physical bitcoins where a private key with a value is hidden in a coin in a tamper evident way. All we need is a company to undertake the project seriously.

How many of you would accept a Casacius physical bitcoin as having value if someone tossed you one and you saw the hologram was immaculate. Exactly. We might not accept an extremely high value, but for smaller values we would be fairly confident in it because we believe the project was carried out by a trusted party in a trustworthy way.

The only level of doubt would be the level to which we think the hidden value might be compromised. Casascius coins are a proof-of-concept, which can leave holes of doubt... small ones, but doubts no less. There only needs to be a company that can mass produce coins in such way as to remove most any other doubt.

I think that's possible. And if it happens then Bitcoin certainly does keep ticking, the same as any other physical cash.

To me that's cash (or gold, or barter), not Bitcoin.
1791  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Days Destroyed on: August 03, 2012, 05:10:12 PM
I never understood the philosophy behind "Days Destroyed." Why should the transfer of long-sitting money be considered more significant than the transfer of money that has recently been spent?

I mean, if I want to buy something, I could send them the Bitcoins I received yesterday, or I could send them the Bitcoins I received years ago. They are both the exchange of Bitcoins for stuff, but the latter would push up the "Days Destroyed" statistic. I don't see the economic difference between the two actions.

Think savings.

OK, going back to my example - I want to spend 1 BTC on a widget. I could spend my Bitcoin I received five minutes ago, which would only slightly increase the Days Destroyed statistic. Or I could spend a Bitcoin I received two years ago, which would much more greatly increase Days Destroyed. But there's no difference in my savings between these two actions.
The assumption is that people hold largest portion of their coins in "savings" wallets, likely offline.  They break the piggy to spend (today this means exchanging for fiat), which increases bdd.
1792  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Power Blackouts - Does Bitcoin keep on ticking? on: August 03, 2012, 05:04:06 PM
Many cc terminals talk to their networks via gprs (or a descendant), and run on batteries. Just like cell phones. I don't see any big advantage of Bitcoin in the realm of resilience. If/when mobile  mesh solutions emerge, it'll be a different story.
1793  Economy / Speculation / Re: ****$10**** on: August 03, 2012, 02:57:40 PM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.


What's on y axis?
1794  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Days Destroyed on: August 03, 2012, 02:49:01 PM
I never understood the philosophy behind "Days Destroyed." Why should the transfer of long-sitting money be considered more significant than the transfer of money that has recently been spent?

I mean, if I want to buy something, I could send them the Bitcoins I received yesterday, or I could send them the Bitcoins I received years ago. They are both the exchange of Bitcoins for stuff, but the latter would push up the "Days Destroyed" statistic. I don't see the economic difference between the two actions.

Think savings.
1795  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Point for Bitcoin! Point for Linux! And point for Ubuntu!! on: August 03, 2012, 02:36:27 PM
What we need is for the PPA to be installable via update manager like other programs. I don't understand why it's not a featured program in Ubuntu.
What would it take to get it included? Would blockchain bloat pose a problem? Can't run it from a typical USB nowadays.
1796  Economy / Speculation / Re: google trends says there is no fuss at all on: August 03, 2012, 02:45:41 AM
As notme, Hexadecibel and others have already pointed out, you don't need a spike in google trends index to indicate influx of new users: a constant search volume means there are new users introduced all the time. We don't need exponential growth - that's the specialty of inflationary currencies.
1797  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Days Destroyed on: August 03, 2012, 02:23:20 AM
I tried overlapping plots of days destroyed with the price - no correlation. Sure you can find some exciting coincidences (large movements just prior to rallies), but if you take an honest look at it, you'll find just as many instances of the opposite.
1798  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Kevin Lim = Zhou Tong ~ Not a conspiracy theory! on: August 02, 2012, 11:37:12 PM
PG, interesting stuff, but I have to ask: how many of you are in there?
1799  Economy / Speculation / Re: ****$10**** on: August 02, 2012, 11:26:10 PM

My thoughts exactly, minus the "holy".


1800  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long-Term sub-exponential, short term bubbles on: August 02, 2012, 08:20:19 PM
Take random subsets of gold price, use your approach to predict where it'll go, then look back into the complete data set and see how successful you were. Ideally, do this as a blind study with a help from a friend. Let us know.
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