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1781  Economy / Speculation / Re: How deep do you expect the price to fall? on: September 01, 2012, 02:47:22 AM
i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

30k bitcoins says it will not get lower than 9.7

its more like 30K praying to god, it will go lower than 9.7 over the weekend

Closer to 40k now, another 3k wall at 9.8.

Prayer might be an effective wall, but asks are the more effective. Smiley
1782  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 01, 2012, 02:42:38 AM
I dont see how one can honestly consider a comparison between precious metals and bitcoin from a hedging perspective.

Forget the historical precedent, even from a fundamentals, it just doesnt compute. Reason being, the market for gold and silver have been (and will be) manipulated heavily by nation states and the IMF. The difference with bitcoin is that the market cap is so low that this is simply not a possibility (yet). It's only manipulated at this point by emotional forum dwellers.

Apples and Oranges.
1783  Economy / Speculation / Re: How deep do you expect the price to fall? on: September 01, 2012, 02:34:19 AM
i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

30k bitcoins says it will not get lower than 9.7
1784  Economy / Speculation / Re: No optimism , you guys on: September 01, 2012, 02:33:27 AM
How is it that 8 year olds know what bitcoin is?
1785  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years? on: September 01, 2012, 12:26:41 AM

Painfully obvious inflation mostly, obscured slightly by bogus statistics.  The usual.  Remember that the debt in question is denominated in a currency that we can print at will (and have!).  The repayment amount isn't a fixed value, but a fixed quantity.

Who would buy or hold a debt like that?  Turns out that everyone does, because the alternatives are mostly worse.  That may change in the next 20 years, maybe it will even be Bitcoin that brings the system down.  But those are both long shots.

The alternatives are mostly worse...for now.

I see other world powers losing patience with the fed's monopoly on, and inevitable devaluation of their holdings.  Being "the best looking horse at the glue factory" is no way to run a world reserve currency.  Already China, India, Russia and others are making noises about some "basket of commodities" system.  Once the rush to get out begins I just don't see how the dollar survives.

This is curious; we seem to largely agree on the facts of the matter but have come to diametrically opposed conclusions.

Except that being the world's reserve currency isn't a gift, it is a burden.  A huge fucking burden.  The price that the USA has paid over the last 40 or 50 years to support, build and rebuild the world is mind boggling.
Only in flawed economic thinking is it a burden. The Triffin dilemma is based on one of the greatest misconceptions in modern-day economics: "a trade deficit is bad".

The USA has been a hungry importer, receiving a huge influx of useful goods, lasting commodities, and safe securities in exchange for its depreciating, produced-on-demand USD, all because it owns the world's reserve currency.

further, all oil transactions occurring in USD is a HUGE boon to the US banking industry

Yep, worth going to war (iraq) over keeping it that way as well.
1786  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: August 31, 2012, 11:43:26 PM
1787  Other / Off-topic / Re: Mr. M Spoiling the Pirate Investing once and for all. on: August 31, 2012, 11:21:58 PM



How exactly do you eat without a mouth?
1788  Economy / Speculation / Re: Freefall? on: August 31, 2012, 11:15:44 PM
Am I getting lucky with my prediction?

at what price do you have buy orders?

Not placed yet, I speculate I might try and buy between $7.5 - $8.5.

+1

Someone pretty large doesnt think its going that low.
1789  Other / Off-topic / Re: Mr. M Spoiling the Pirate Investing once and for all. on: August 31, 2012, 11:02:57 PM
Amazing that people are still posting shit like this. Are people actually falling for it?
1790  Economy / Speculation / Re: Freefall? on: August 31, 2012, 08:38:09 PM
"But taken together, the speech sounds a lot like Mr. Bernanke's closing argument in favor of more easing." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443864204577623220212805132.html
1791  Economy / Speculation / Re: Freefall? on: August 31, 2012, 08:18:46 PM
Look at the wider markets...the world is J hole crazy today

this might not last long

J hole? Huh
1792  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anybody but Obamney, PROTEST VOTE (thrid party) on: August 31, 2012, 04:40:42 AM

1793  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official) on: August 30, 2012, 05:02:37 AM
It is hard for this to end well...maybe he is BTC rich and this won't be a large sum for him.

Bingo... This is just Pizza money.

Dont think so. Not so long ago (if I recall correctly), he was looking to raise money for starting a new venture (likely less than the value of the current bet).
1794  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official) on: August 30, 2012, 01:52:34 AM
Originally, I disagreed with Matthew's methods, but somewhat sympathized with the original motivation he presented.

However, as of yesterday, circumstances have clearly changed, given the Pirate default statement.

So Matthew's subsequent doubling down now guarantees that things will end very badly for him.

Either:

1. he loses the bet, and will be forever remembered as the obstinate idiot who doubled down and lost 30KBTC in the face of an explicit confession.  No one will ever again respect him, or trust his judgement on any business matters.
2. Pirate pays, he miraculously wins the bet, in which case he will forever be suspected as a crook who had inside information.
3. he welches on the bet through a technicality or pretending it was a joke, in which case he will be forever known as someone whose word cannot be trusted or taken seriously.

Matthew, it's good to have courage and strong beliefs.  But when new concrete information is brought to light, a wise man will reassess the validity of those beliefs before digging himself a deeper hole.  There is no dishonor in admitting a mistake and engaging reverse.  In fact, quite the opposite.



+1
1795  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official) on: August 29, 2012, 06:15:01 AM
Matthew, stop the bleeding brother. You are doing good things with your money. No need to lose anymore.
1796  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BDT - 3% weekly interest bond, backed by Bitdaytrade on: August 29, 2012, 03:41:29 AM
Well no bitcoins where stolen, I got a email

funds are safe, i'm working things out. I'll be requesting you to post a withdrawal request later and confirm it. Please hold on and do not panick.

BDT

So now its a matter of time getting my bitcoins back




huh?
1797  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BDT - 3% weekly interest bond, backed by Bitdaytrade on: August 28, 2012, 08:09:53 AM
Security problems are being worked out as we speak. We suffered a great database compromission, including data loss. I'm tryin' to work out all withdrawals according to the last backup snapshots i am in possession of and crossing with email requests. If you feel you still haven't received your deposit, please email info@bitdaytrade.com, backing up your request with all possible logs/informations about your deposits and withdrawals at bitdaytrade. I am not sure at this point, if i should continue running the platform, or issue a complete recall. What are your opinions in merit ?

Thanks
Alberto

Its safe to say that there is significant interest in seeing a platform like this succeeding. What do you need from the community to proceed?
1798  Economy / Economics / Re: Deflation and Bitcoin, the last word on this forum on: August 28, 2012, 07:47:13 AM
This is so mind numbingly simple, it scares me that this needed to be explained.

Try to explain why interest rates and capital yields should never drop to zero like in theory every economic profit should in perfect competition, please.
Why you equate investment with low yields (say 0.5%) with risk.
And why people should profit from hoarding instead of lending/investing?
What would be so wrong with a free financial market (not manipulated by a central bank) that has near zero interest rates due to demurrage in the currency?
Why is preferable to destroy the financial market cyclically through runaway deflation over a currency with demurrage?

Lots of fair questions for which there are equally unfair answers.
1799  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Kronos.io questions and properties on: August 28, 2012, 07:40:59 AM
Is this dead? Just checked the site and it didnt load  Cry
1800  Economy / Economics / Re: Bristol to launch their own currency in September on: August 22, 2012, 06:31:54 PM
Stops what is referred to as "capital flight". Which means that money leaves the local area and ends up in the hands of some (multi) national corporation. This saves jobs, increases local prosperity and increases community resilience.
There might be a slight "first mover" effect. But if every city has its own currency, it also stops "capital influx" from other areas.

But that's not why most of these currencies succeed or fail. Most of them fail because to the user they are less useful than national currency: "Here, give me one pound that you can spend anywhere in the UK, and I'll give you one pound that you can only spend in Bristol." That's a losing proposition.

We are far far away from every city having its own currency. For the last 25 years globalization has been accelerating to an unprecedented scale (with unprecedented consequences). In any case, these local currencies are not just local, they are designed to be complementary, not exclusionary. This means that they function in tandem with a larger (or multiple) currencies which also have their own effect.

It's true that this is why most fail. But in reality it's only a losing proposition if you only care about your personal fungibility and not the strength of the community.
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