I tried looking at some shorter term regressions, and I have to say that it only makes the picture more confusing.
Finally, i have settled on an even longer term than I was using when I started the thread that seems to put things into a pretty good focus. Given that, I am seeing a quiescent equilibrium point at about $114-$115, and I expect exchange rates to seek this level in the mid-term, or until we start to see some sort of concerted pressure one way or the other.
You're tracking only MtGox USD orderbook volume, right? I wonder if your analysis may be invalidated due to the fact that MtGox USD is currently illiquid trapped asset at best, and pure fiction at worst. There is strong suspicion that MtGox is artificially pumping 'virtual fiat' into their orderbook since May, which mostly coincides with the 'active management' artifact timeframe that you mentioned.
In my opinion, latest MtGox orderbook dynamics confirm this suspicion. Think about it, since July 12 MtGox orderbooks show almost linear inflow of up to 1 million USD per day, while other exchanges' orderbooks are pretty much flat. I mean, seriously?! Someone is putting 1 million USD per day into exchange that is NOT processing fiat withdrawals, but not into other LIQUID exchanges that have NO such restrictions, and BETTER exchange rate? Are you kidding me?
If this is indeed the case, your high equilibrium assessment is invalid because it is calculated based on 'virtual fiat' bid volume that has nothing to do with reality, but is there just to create an illusion of high demand.
I'd love to be proven wrong on this of course but Occam's razor is a fearsome weapon.
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