conspiracy theory:  if Ben has told all banks that there will be no more QE (he's actually told all of us but most here refuse to believe it) and that they want to kill gold to save the USD and the world financial system what asset would you rotate into if you knew these facts beforehand?  USD's of course. as i said in my OP, i bet the banks were heavily into GLD, gold futures and CHF to create the parabola and suck everyone else in before selling it off.  look at the volume spikes in each of these on the selloff days.  much larger than on the days the price went up esp. the last 2 wks.  this is called a divergence and is a warning sign somethings up.

bubble theory:  forget the conspiracy theories, gold went into a parabola at the end of an 11 yr bull cycle and most investors concluded that their proceeds from selling off the CHF on the SNB anncmnt wouldn't go into a bubble but instead into the world's reserve currency, the USD, which currently is very UNDERvalued.  not to mention the huge short interest in the USD.  this really is the basis of most of my moves regarding selling off my bullion and putting on shorts.  i refuse to buy parabolas.  all the fundamentals stack up for a reversal of all markets as well.  markets love volatility.  you just need to make sure you get into position before everyone else.

you're right.  that could be an inconsistency that has me worried.  however, what gives me encouragement is that the BTC price has been so bombed out with such negative sentiment that now would be a logical time for a reversal.  perhaps the USD doesn't skyrocket but moves up just enough  to kill gold while allowing BTC to actually achieve what we have all dreamed.  Bitcoin fits so much more nicely into the world order as i see it that i think its future is extremely positive.

you can't blame me for his discourteous remarks.

what i think has become clear is that Ben is not gonna do another QE3 (yeah thats right Matthew).  and i think he and the banks are out to save the USD.  the other way to look at this is the banksters have just pushed this latest reflationary to its max and its time for markets to revert to the norm.  what this means is that all asset markets are going to turn down in a deflationary wave of unseen proportions.

the reason i think you're seeing non-sensical correlations, like miscreanity complains about above, is that at transition points in the economy various markets diverge from one another.  on the way up from 3/09, the USD and UST's fell and everything else went up.  this was the reflationary phase.  in 2/11 the TLT started to climb, the first sign of trouble.  then oil and stocks peaked out end of 4/11.  now pm's are peaking out.  remember my theory is that the USD is central as the worlds reserve currency, not gold.  miscreanity would call this the tail wagging the dog but until i see evidence otherwise this is what i believe.

part of this phenomenon i believe can be explained by the shorts and sellers "rotating" from one bull market to the next selling them off one by one.  this is how the Dow can explode today by short covering and pm's get wacked today.  thus, the normal relationships you'll see in the middle of long term climbs like 3/09 to now start diverging.  you have to step back and view the overall picture of the change from the reflation to a now prolonged deflation.  at some pt we'll crash and it could very well be later this year.  at that pt all markets will get into gear to the downside as one with the USD skyrocketing.

i think the waves of bad news for gold will keep coming.  tomorrow we'll probably see the $DXY break out over 76.25.  then 9/22 Fed meeting still won't announce any more QE.  the question will be how long will you deny whats happening?

whats an inflationists and gold bugs worst nightmare?  SOUND MONEY.

BTW, watch Bitcoin.

edit:  netrin, i hope i was clear that this is how the USD/CHF cross can skyrocket and gold can plummet.  no matter how well schooled the fundamentalists are, you never know whats going on beneath the surface.  this is why technical analysis is so important.  all info is embedded in the price.  i think the Fed has put out the word that no more QE is forthcoming.  gold does not like this.

you really are a jerk aren't you?

Steve, have you ever collected art or had a coin collection when you were a kid?  i know you grew up fast with women like Alyson around but these coins for me at least will be mementos and collectors items to sell or show off one day down the line when Bitcoin goes mainstream.  they will serve as "proof" that i was there from the beginning and was a supporter of the community.

they're all in my posts.

hoarding as a problem is such a stupid argument.  of course something will be hoarded until it is allowed to reach its fundamental value.  if the price is suppressed via manipulation then the hoarding will continue.  when Bitcoin reaches its fundamental value which i think will be well north of $10000 per BTC, then investors will consider disgorging their BTC.  its really quite simple.

i've said from the beginning that gold has topped no matter how you look at it; either via a manipulative takedown or from a sentiment driven parabolic blowoff.  it really doesn't matter which you believe, either way its down.

sure there's manipulation.  thats a fundamental part of my OP.  the problem the inflationists and gold bulls have is that the Fed has the power to shut off liquidity anytime it wants.  it can destroy gold just by changing their minds.  Ben is human; i'm sure he's sensitive to all the criticism and hates the fact he's been so predictable since he's been Chairman.  you need to think in terms of game theory or like a criminal.  what's he gonna do?  destroy the USA via the USD and have that as his legacy? 

there will never be the Greatest Transfer of Wealth in History like you guys hope.  gold will not go to $35000.  i doubt it will ever reach $2000.  that was the perfect mirage to put in front of the bulls.  i think your outstretched hands will never reach it.

Bitcoin slowly moving up.  i like this setup.

yes its leverage on top of leverage.  DZZ and ZSL.

edit:  of course i have routine shorts on SLW, PAAS and GG.

since a metaphor has been proposed for whats happening i guess i'll throw out one myself.

when miscreanity and i were kids the greatest mano-a-mano matchup was not Ali vs Frazier, not Team Canada vs the USSR, and not Jimmy Connors vs. John McEnroe.

it was the young, charismatic challenger Bobby Fischer vs. the old, stodgy, brilliant reigning world champion Boris Spassky in 1972 for the World Championship of Chess.  they represented not just the US vs the USSR but also the East vs. West, Communism vs. Democracy, Socialism vs Freedom, the Red Army vs. Uncle Sam.

now Spassky was a great Grandmaster, an expert in all the openings, middle games, and closings, able to crush all opponents with his patient methodical expertise. Spassky's reign as world champion lasted three years, but then he lost to Fischer of the United States in 1972 in the "Match of the Century".

the thing about Fischer was that he was brilliant and creative, and cunningly unpredictable.  a match would be going along and suddenly Fischer would make a move that would make the crowd and commentators sit up in their seats and go "Say WHAT?" you could see the corner of Spassky's mouth curl up in a snicker as if to say "i gotcha".  sure enough as the ensuing moves played out, Spassky's confidence turned to frustration and then fear and finally defeat.  he was never the same.

you may think i'm nuts to go against miscreanity, FOFOA, Jim Rickards, Dan Norcini, Eric King, Jim Puplava, Jim Sinclair, Nouriel Roubini, Mish, Dave Rosenberg, James Turk, David Einhorn, Ben Davies, Eric Degroot, Pierre Lasonde, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Ken Ivory, Eric Sprott, Antal Fekete, Bill Fleckenstein, Bill Murray, John Embry, Rick Rule, Doug Casey, Michael Pento, Mark Faber, John Embry, Felix Zulauf, John Hathaway, Rob Arnott, Jean Marie Eveillard, etc, etc, etc.  And perhaps i am.  after all, who the hell is cypherdoc anyway?  just an anonymous voice on the Internet.

but one thing i know about markets is that when i can spout off a list of players like that off the top of my head that means everyone is on one side of the boat.  i prefer the other side.

this down move has even more "motive" strength than the 2d a coupla weeks ago.  to me this means this is the "real deal".

yeah, and i left the shorts on with maximal leverage with a margin call due tomorrow if we hadn't dumped today.  looks like i won't have to bother

10:1 you've bought put protection this AM, haven't you?  be honest

the last 5d the $DXY has exploded to the top of the horizontal channel.  i'd call that a move.


whats it been doing since May 2?


this is the classic time for such a move.  its a continuation of today's selloff and is an ideal time to exert enormous pressure on the market when the retail investors aren't around.  the gap down in the AM is gonna cause a panic.  you watch.


and i'll teach you how markets work

as a corollary to a gold/silver top, i'd consider getting your Bitcoin Rally hats on.  if even a fraction of that money decides to flow our way, we could see the beginnings of a big rally.

edit:  in other words the mirror image of a double top in gold would be a double bottom in Bitcoin which appears to me to be forming.

the gold/silver selloff has begun.  and you know where that money's gonna go?  BITCOIN!!!!

you're a dumbass.  better get on board this train.  its leaving.

the double top is a VERY bearish formation.  it means that if you don't get out now, you won't get another chance b/c it ain't coming back up.