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But it definitely shows we're on the right track...
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the good news from reading btwn the lines and from what i know of gov't, i don't think they're anywhere near to dealing with Bitcoin from a technological standpoint. but from a troll standpoint, i think they're already here.
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yes. it explicitly pointed out Bitcoin. we're a target. we need to go deeper.
I'm going to read it all later on this afternoon. I'll post a synopsis tonight, if it's not done already. I think it's an extremely important article. Who commissioned it or who was it created for? Which agency or think tank? Can you gather anything else about this? Brookings Institute. pretty prominent. |
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yes. it explicitly pointed out Bitcoin. we're a target. we need to go deeper.
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Euro's in trouble again which should also drive USD up. we may be getting ready for the all one market effect; everything down with USD up.
Euro being in trouble again is bullish for gold. I see the point you're making about the USD, but the reality lately has been that BOTH the dollar and gold are currently seen as the best safe-haven plays. Hence they can both go up simultaneously. Odd, but, for the moment, true. If sentiment shifts to gold being a dollar-inflation hedge, that can't happen, but it's all safe-haven right now... i find it interesting how diff mkts can diverge in their relationships at transition pts. i think we're at one right now where gold and USD appear to move together but eventually gravity will take hold of gold and drag it down abruptly. i think this consolidation after a parabolic move will have a diff result this time. the $DXY has formed a small descending wedge for the last 3 wks or so. at the very least this early USD move UP should make you sit up... |
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i'd like to see the following speakers:
ALISON
I can make that happen! She paid for her lunch at Meze Grill with bitcoins, so she's a pro by now! i keep threatening to come to one of these just to meet her but then again, i'm just a tease  |
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assuming the turnout would be similar to Bitcon, it would be nice to have sessions that everyone could attend instead of breaking up into separate groups depending on an individuals interest. for instance, i would have loved to attend a mining session and a merchant session except they were simultaneous at Bitcon. even though i know nothing about the details of mining, i think we are all intellectually curious enough to want to know whats behind this part of Bitcoin.
you could have a series of 3 experts in each category speak for 30 min followed by a panel discussion of the 3 speakers and a couple of other experts with Q&A. these sessions would proceed one by one throughout the day with breaks mid morning, lunch, and mid afternoon of 45 min so that attendees could visit vendor displays in the next room.
i would love to see all the vendors out there bring their products and devices to the conference for attendees to touch and feel. they should have internet hookups to demo their websites if they don't have a physical product to display. programs with descriptions of speakers, panel discussants, and vendors would be nice but an extra expense.
anyways, i'm describing my own personal professional conferences which i would love for Bitcoin to be able to reach in the near future. good luck.
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i'll throw in Santa Barbara; West Coast, midway btwn LA and SF and near Vegas. great weather, plenty to do.
i'd like to see the following speakers:
Gavin
Jeff Garzik
Stefan Thomas
Theymos
Mike Hearns
Grondilu
Casascius
Coderr
Bruce Wagner
Bitpay guys
ALISON
Ira from BTCinch
Mark Karpeles
eMansipator
Jered Kenna
evorhees
Matt Corallo
Max Keiser
John Matonis
Todd Bethell
Trader Steve
Keyur (CampBX)\
ExchB
Ruxum founders
Nefario
Peter Lambert
Steve Gornick
hugolp
Vladimir
tcatm
Jans Vonberger (Instawallet)
Jackjack
hashcoin
mewantsbitcoins
gmaxwell
Luke Jr
genjix
fellowtraveler
hiro
Bytecoin
bcearl
and finally;
Satoshi
edit:
Rick Falkvinge
S3052
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this move the last few minutes has all the smell of the trap i've been talking about. be nimble.
SLW has tripled tested the 61.8% Fib and appears to be failing to penetrate. PAAS is also peetering out. i still think the $DXY rises from here.
Euro's in trouble again which should also drive USD up. we may be getting ready for the all one market effect; everything down with USD up.
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So .... anybody heard anything from cuddlefish in the last month?
yes. i heard from him 2d ago: Waiting for replacement computer to arrive. Just got back from camping without internet. Looking at redoing 2 weeks of work and somehow covering loss of about 40 zcoin) . (stupidly not backed up often enough.) I will work to earn whatever is needed to replace it. I am honestly acting in good faith. Hopefully (replacmnt will come this week when I can continur work. My apologies, cuddlefish |
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thanks for the answers and i wish you the best of luck.  |
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gold looks to have failed at the 61.8% retrace from the top to bottom.
as i said, stocks should rally from here while pm's get hit. its their turn.
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Except that bonds repay the principle when they mature.
Except that investors trade these in on the secondary market way before they mature. In your example, and ignoring the discount function, the original bond has only appreciated by 20%. The next halving of the interest rate will only give 11%. A few more and you are down to 1%. Zeno noticed a couple thousand years ago that the sum of this series is not infinite.
Two other factors make this system less than practical. The first is that people will accept negative interest only when all the other places they could possibly park their money look really shitty, like back in 2008 when the commercial paper market broke the buck. The second is that bonds mature, plus new issues have been for shorter and shorter average durations since the 90s, so the possible influence of older issues is shrinking steadily.
to me, today looks even shittier. the imbalance are even greater than 2008 and commercial paper is even worse off. i would argue scared investors are moving out even further on the yield curve predicting that we will have an even longer and more protracted depression than we originally thought. especially if the Fed ever implements Operation Twist. But yes, people do actually do what you describe. Prior to the auctions, the primary dealers get their analysts to announce that the new issue will clear for a lower rate, which drives up the values of the bonds they are holding and also becomes a self fulfilling prophecy as the upcoming issue clears for less than it would have if the institutional investors that are required to buy bonds hadn't picked them up early. Hey, free money for the primary dealers. Who here can guess who they are?
The problem is that it is on a collision course with the two factors I mentioned earlier, plus all of the usual problems, plus the demographic timebomb (pensions will start paying out, reducing the size of the pools that are required by law to buy bonds), plus some other stuff.
The questions, as always, are how long the game can keep on, and what will replace it? Armageddon Hyperinflation is scheduled for "next week", or at least "real soon now", but it has been for 20, 30, 40, or 80 years (pick one).
P.S. If you are under 60, this should probably be a matter of great concern to you.
fixed that for you. |
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no, go study the UST market. imagine this; a 0.5% drop in yield to 0.25% is a doubling in price! this is the paradox in deflation that most ppl don't understand and why professional bond investors dive reflexively into UST's.
Where are you getting this notion that halving a bond's interest rate doubles the bond's price? I don't think you mean price... If a $100 face bond of some maturity is trading at $80, implying an interest rate of Y%, it does not mean that an interest rate of (Y/2)% implies a bond price of $160. Maybe I don't understand bond-market lingo, though... Clarify? In any event, people are piling into USTs because the US is less worse off than other liquid sovereigns, and there are only so many places to put serious amounts of money. The other place is gold, which has clearly taken a good deal of the safe-haven flow. So, oddly enough, you get USTs and gold simultaneously being viewed as safe-haven assets....at least for a while. A bond is issued for $10,000 for five years with a 5% coupon or interest rate, paid every six months. Then interest rates drop to 2.5%. The annual payment of $500 ($10,000 x 5%) must equal a 2.5% payment. Doing the math, you discover that the face value of the bond must be increased to $20,000 so that the $500 fixed payment equals a 2.5% yield on the buyer’s investment ($20,000 x 2.5% = $500). you can take this to infinity by halving the interest yet again, and again, and again, and again...and this is what the Fed has been doing and why bond investors keep buying. edit: you'd better understand this concept carefully b/c it will affect your investing health. |
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You are contradicting yourself. Earlier you were saying that we shouldn't be surprised if the fed wanted to increase interest rates and would stop monetary stimulus. The monetary stimulus can only go so far, especially as the debt increases constantly. Don't expect yield to go down forever. I am sure they have hit a low. I wont bet on it because the best bet is gold and silver.  And what does this create? Well inflation of-course. no, i'm just explaining some of the mechanisms for moral hazard that have been in place for years. as for raising interest rates in the next 2 yrs i could see it happening to try and stuff gold and save the USD but who knows. as i said, i'm agnostic on UST's which is why i do not have any position on them. |
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Apparently in 2009 the federal reserve bought the equivalence to 80% of the newly issued treasuries. What do you think to this?
you're right; it doesn't make alot of sense that investors would pile into such a hated asset but when you know the biggest player in the room is going to be buying one week from now according to schedule you might want to front run him. obviously this results in monetization and is why gold goes up too. i'm just saying this is how big UST investors think. i used to be a Bloomberg Tom Keene podcast listener via subscription and i remember this concept being discussed in detail. sounds screwy until you realize the benefits of the moral hazard. its free safe money for the primary dealers and they've done it for decades. how long it continues? i bet a lot longer than you think. i wouldn't be shorting UST's right now. you know what happened in Japan... |
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US treasury yields surely aren't going to go lower or much lower? 'Til now it's been the federal reserve that has been sustaining them ultimately. Now they are expensive and give almost no yield, so I think US treasuries are now the way to kill wealth if you wanted to. You would agree with this as you think everything is going into deflation. I am fine with the idea that treasuries have maxed out. But wait! if we go into a Depression, UST bond values are likely to increase even more in value which is why so many investors paradoxically dive into them during troubled times. Oh dear. Your words are either very contradictory or it is true that markets are completely illogical which isn't true. There is a reason why gold has been going up and it will continue! no, go study the UST market. imagine this; a 0.5% drop in yield to 0.25% is a doubling in price! this is the paradox in deflation that most ppl don't understand and why professional bond investors dive reflexively into UST's. Paradox in deflation? No, you lost me completely. You think people would buy up treasuries but not gold in troubled times? Now are troubled times. this is exactly what ppl are doing. again, its not a bad investment when you think of it in terms of bond value not yield. this is TLT the 20 yr UST  |
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US treasury yields surely aren't going to go lower or much lower? 'Til now it's been the federal reserve that has been sustaining them ultimately. Now they are expensive and give almost no yield, so I think US treasuries are now the way to kill wealth if you wanted to. You would agree with this as you think everything is going into deflation. I am fine with the idea that treasuries have maxed out. But wait! if we go into a Depression, UST bond values are likely to increase even more in value which is why so many investors paradoxically dive into them during troubled times. Oh dear. Your words are either very contradictory or it is true that markets are completely illogical which isn't true. There is a reason why gold has been going up and it will continue! no, go study the UST market. imagine this; a 0.5% drop in yield to 0.25% is a doubling in price! this is the paradox in deflation that most ppl don't understand and why professional bond investors dive reflexively into UST's. |
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