This "X sucks therefore Y" nonsense....
No really, do you drink a bottle of wine then come troll the forums? Shouldn't you be trolling the official AM thread? You know most have read your bull there and pay no mind to you (you stopped coming after you made blatant hater predictions that ended up being wrong?). I really shouldn't bother, but... It's directly relevant because the person to which he responded basis his calculations on BFL, Avalon, Bitfury, KnC, and 100TH all shipping and coming online so quick that AM can't maintain 20-25% network share. If X if BFL, then X sucks, and X is not shipping shit close to their estimate, therefore Y is AM, and AM has a proven track record on estimates and delivery, and based on Y's estimates, it can keep up X's actual delivery record. Mabsark says AM needs 6500 TH/s. At 20%, that's an additional 32500 TH/s by October (ha!). I don't know where he gets his fantasy numbers, but one thing is he seems to be calculating an AM share purely as a mining bond, which it is not. Reading what the manufacturers estimate, it's 1200 TH by October, but even that is laughable. If it were 1200 TH, AM would only need to put up 270 TH to maintain 20%. Which based on their track record, they seem fully capable of doing, unlike every other single one. BFL: delayed (string along ponzi crap, sell product X pre-orders, delay, sell product Y pre-orders, ship some of product X, delay, sell product Z pre-orders). Avalon: delayed and mining with your shit (so that's already part of the current network hash rate). Bitfury: delayed and don't know they work. KnC: canceled mars and expensive and who knows how fast they can manufacture those things. MPOE-PR, newguy05, Mabsark, return to this thread in October for a learning experience. |
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c) some large player put in an EPIC buy order and bought ASICMINER out of blades, and this weeks div will be the most amazing thing ever.
I'm optimistic about this...  |
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Refunds may take a while, just so you guys know.
I requested a refund 12 days ago and have not received it.
They responded that the request "will be fulfilled in the next few days" and it's been 11 days.
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1. Sell shares of Asicminer
2. sell bitcoins for USD
3. Watch BTC price plummet (hopefully)
4. buy more bitcoins for USD
5. buy more shares of AsicMiner
If everything goes as planned, if you can get your btc to the market before the crash reverses, then you could end up with more shares of AsicMiner than you started with, all in time to get the weekly dividend.
This, and it can even go simpler: -Sell AM for BTC -Wait for low AM -Get more shares In hindsight, it was a pretty quick fluke. Some overreacting or speculating? What would you do on Bitfinex? Aren't you already long by holding a security valued in BTC ? I think you are assuming ASICMiner has a FIAT value. i can see your argument with other securities that would experience a price change but few do. ASICMiner pretty much stays the same with price changes (look at the bubble/pop). However securities with FIAT business should move with the market and yes you could exploit that Well, one could argue that during a btc flash crash, it's a panic selloff, which means people are psychologically spooked, and looking to move their holdings into fiat at any cost. It seems logical that people might be transferring btc stocks into btc (by selling cheaply) for transfer to exchanges to convert to fiat. The reality is by the time everything is said and done, it will likely be too late, and you will likely be converting to fiat at the low, so it's generally smarter to sit tight, and/or buy the shares of those panicking. -helixone I think these comments really nail down the point, except its psychological so it won't give you a strong (determining) correlation. Deprived had a really good post applicable here (can't remember what thread, but I think it was a somewhat recent post). He pointed out the problem with securities having or encouraging a fiat value: they use bitcoin as a medium, and when one rises, the other falls, and security gets tossed between the two, not really benefiting (I'm going off memory here). AM (and some others) avoids some of this problem by not talking about their worth, value etc. in fiat terms, and also in their performance of course. So it seems to me, when you have people using multiple mediums, ratios some directly proportional and some indirect (inverse?), its pretty difficult to make a rational or mathematical judgement (and hence don't get caught up in finding a strong correlation, my advice). Perhaps some did think a crash was coming, and wanted to go from AM to BTC to fiat, maybe others were seeing only in BTC<->stock. On the other hand, wasn't it just like some weeks ago BTC had a strong dip and everyone crying 'CRASH', and stocks seemed little effected by the lower price, the exchange problems, and so on? Actually if you look at the notable dips in the PT prices of AM, they largely correlate with large and rapid price drops in btc. The bubble/crash, showed a runup in AM prices right before a corresponding correction as well. Look at AM prices between April 16th and 18th. Longterm though, slow moves in btc price don't seem to affect security pricing, and they seem to trade based on other reasons. (each security seems to differ.) This. It's exactly what happened during the first crash. However, people caught on and there was less panic each subsequent drop, until the 4th there was zero drop and AM just climbed to 2.9 |
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You're saying that a 30x increase in value (from IPO prices) over the course of 10 months isn't reasonable?! What madness is this?!?
That's right, it's madness, fried cats only became 20x more delicious over the course of 10 months. This is a fried cat mania bubble... ... never giving up my black fried and crispy cats. |
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We'll start sending chip to locations. About bitbet - it seems that we do not meet time so resolution should be closed to No because timing was not met. I however would anyway compensate Yes if chip will work as it is our fault of being not in time and people actually were waiting for this to be tested earlier.
Glad to hear that |
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They haven't got enough hashing power to maintain 30%. BFL hash about 400 Th/s incoming, AM's got 200 Th/s incoming taking it total to 250 Th/s, Avalon will have 250 Th/s, BitFury has 200 Th/s incoming and KnC has 200 Th/s incoming from the 500 pre-orders. That's about 1300 Th/s between them and AM will only have 250 Th/s of that. That's 19.23%. By the end of the year, AM will account for about 10-15% of the network share.
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL  So funny, thank you. Claims have no bearing on reality. You're not living in reality, are you? Based on reality, AM is the only one with accurate estimates, so really that's more like AM will account for about 80% of the network share. You know, except, they need to hold back. BFL, Avalon, and Bitfury *have all been delayed* |
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Income from hardware sales will obviously decrease as more valuable hardware from competitors becomes readily available.
LOL, dude, friedcat already announced price cuts on his hardware (blades). He can just keep doing this. Create good shit, *actually ship good shit in a timely manner* and cut the prices when necessary until he creates more good shit. |
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Any reason for the noticeable hash rate drop off ? Friedcat tripping over cat5 in the datacenter perhaps ?  It happens every time they take them off the pools, so that's a piece of it (doesn't make up for all of the dropoff unless they decided to move things around). |
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My estimate for next div is 0.02684
Good estimate I'd say. Around 2.1-2.6 IMO. |
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I have sold two shares, when BTC started to crash again hoping that shares would dip down a second time.
Seems like people have learned this time and it isn't happening again.
(Still got shares left, so it's not too bad.)
Yah I did too. Thought it would be an easy flip, selling right before BTC crashed, and ended up eating a "loss" when there was literally ZERO sells into the bids. No one wants to let it go for less than the asking price. East coast already woke up and BTC went to 98 and AM went to 2.7 briefly then back up to 2.89 (wall). Probably sold into the bids THEN read up. AM is very resilient and persistent right now. We just need more BTCs to make their way back from the exchanges. |
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Here's why I think we're headed to 3.5:
1) The most important reason is during the first BTC crash to 100, many people sold AM down to 2.25 so they could get their BTC out into fiat. Many people (some new) were waiting for just that opportunity. AM quickly recovered even with BTC below 100. I think the reason we have seen it rally now is being some people have regret that decision and have been making their way back in. I figure a lot are still holding fiat because BTC is bearish and are waiting for a bottom below the 90s. If BTC recovers, and that's an if, then these people will dive back into AM.
2) I see being are that the walls are broken down at 2.5, giving us a solid base of new comers at 2.5, and 3.0 isn't quite profitable enough to cause much selling off (0.5 profit when you're expecting more, you hold).
3) The way AM is going, even with an average dividend of 0.02 (we've been seeing 0.03+ recently), then the yearly earning on 1 share at 3.5 BTC is 1.04 BTC, which is 29.7% APR. I think 25-30% APR is the right amount of interest for a people to get in on a venture like this.
4) AM is advertising, bringing in people who hadn't considered or overlooked AM for a while (as shown by recent posts).
5) AM CEO, friedcat, is doing everything right, and following through. Under-promising and over-delivering.
6) Higher hashrate per share.
Note: if AM sold out of blades already, and I suspect may have utilized them to match incoming hashrate (BFL), then the dividend may be around 0.02. Based on the yearly average that is still damn fine, but lower than last week. Since people are barely selling and realize the value of AM now, I don't suspect a sell-off just because of a dividend that's smaller but still significant.
I'm all in on AM, so that makes it easy for me to assess an opinion in this way.
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Get back in AM before that boat leaves the dock again.
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Look at that, ASICMINER is 100% out of BTC guild and 100% solo mining. More profits for us. Nice job F&F (friedcat and friends)!  |
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We're not going to 3 BTC guys...
We're going to 3.5 BTC. How long did it stay 2 BTC? Not very. Enthusiasm brings us to a middle-ground. We see 3 BTC. We want 4 BTC. We settle for 3.5 BTC.
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Updated the FB feed Link? |
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0.036 dividend? 74% APR?  |
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The minimum quantity on this wall has made it especially resilient. It might be a while yet before it comes down. TAT or DeadTerra should buy these up and throw them in their PT's They'd probably make a quick profit at this rate.. Not sure they have enough capital though. Even with TAT.VIRTUALMINE's funds.. it's a ways off. Not sure that guys wall should even be considered a wall. It's a stretchy wall. It's something we can blow past, and when we do, someone BTC wealthy will pick up those shares as a steal. |
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