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181  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [CHESS] FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament 2022 on: September 30, 2022, 04:01:44 PM
interesting video Boristhecat
seems like it goes in a way I mentioned here before
no human player has 100% accuracy on their games
computers usually "think" in a slightly different way than humans.

This is a completely different assessment than the accuracy that everyone is used to playing on chess.com. As I understand it, this is an assessment of moves relative to existing chess engines. The cheater doesn't have to play as the latest version of Stockfish, he can use a less advanced version or DeepFritz or Rybka etc. This evaluation checks the moves against any engine, so a smart cheater who uses different engines will still be caught.
And the peculiarity is that only those moves are analyzed here where the chess player is obliged to think independently - theoretical opening moves are excluded from the analysis, as well as forced moves.
And so now it turns out that the top grandmasters in their entire career can find at most one game close to 80-90 in their games, while Niemann has a dozen 100% games and a dozen 90% games in a few years.
In terms of mathematics, he is 100% a cheater.
182  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: September 29, 2022, 08:50:29 PM
~~~
In terms of climate conditions, hasn't Qatar guaranteed that there will be some kind of super stadiums with fully air-conditioned throughout the stadium? I think I've heard something similar.

I know that the Qataris are swimming in wads of money after the LNG prices went up by 20x during recent times. But at the same time, the players might find themselves in unfamiliar territory with a lot of restrictions. They can't go out with their friends to have a couple of beers. They can't even bring their girlfriends to the tournament, because unmarried couples are not allowed in Qatar. And more importantly, although the stadiums may be air-conditioned, we can't expect the players to stay there for 100% of the time.
But in the news they wrote that even for ordinary tourists the rules will be soft and they will be able to drink beer. Similarly, girls - all these restrictions concern the Qataris themselves rather than tourists, and even more so football players. If I remember correctly, one of the players is openly gay and he criticized Qatar for homophobic laws, but it is obvious that no one will detain him there or prosecute him for homosexuality. All these restrictions are rather far-fetched and the players will not notice them. As for the rest of the conditions, they are accustomed to a change of scenery and, in general, all the players will be on an equal footing - Europeans, Americans, Africans and Asians.
183  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [ BOXING POLL ADDED ] The Heavyweight Battle of Britain - FURY vs JOSHUA on: September 29, 2022, 08:40:04 PM
Today on the news I saw Charrs trash talk who is outraged that Fury will continue negotiations with Joshua's team. Looks too fake, looks like it's just a blowing up the hype(an attempt haha) before this miserable fight. Now I am 95% sure that they will try to sell us this "super" Fury-Charr fight.
However, I was initially skeptical about the fact that the Fury-Joshua fight could be organized so quickly, so no surprise.
184  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2022/2023 on: September 29, 2022, 08:25:00 PM
After what seems a very long wait, the Premier League is back  Grin

Saturday 1st October 2022
Arsenal 12:30 Tottenham Hotspur
Bournemouth 15:00 Brentford
Crystal Palace 15:00 Chelsea
Fulham 15:00 Newcastle United
Liverpool 15:00 Brighton and Hove Albion
Southampton 15:00 Everton
West Ham United 17:30 Wolverhampton Wanderers

Sunday 2nd October 2022
Manchester City 14:00 Manchester United
Leeds United 16:30 Aston Villa

Monday 3rd October 2022
Leicester City 20:00 Nottingham Forest

Which game is bigger, the North London derby or the Manchester derby?

Obviously, the meeting of the teams occupying the first and third place is more important than the meeting of the teams from the second and fifth places, so the north London derby is the central game of the 9th round of the Premier League. I wonder how many fans will support such reasoning, haha (personally, I will certainly wait for the Manchester derby).
It's a pity that both games will be played at such an early time, it would be much more convenient if there were a couple of "warm-up" games before these games, plus often daytime games have poor performance (this is my subjective feeling, I did not check the statistics).
185  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Investing and the casino business. on: September 29, 2022, 08:14:29 PM
Investments in casinos that are sure to be profitable apply only to land-based casino. If investing in online casinos as far as I can know is small possibility to be profitable, your funds usually continue to rotate sometimes profit and sometimes loss, also for those who have small funds it is better to invest in crypto assets. Even also someone which have a big of funds only play at casino, many of the whale rarely invest in casino, because they are not looking for money only but they also want to feel the sensation.

By investing in an online casino, you most likely meant investing in a casino bankroll, which was very popular for a while. But that has nothing to do with the investment the OP was talking about. With such an investment, you do not acquire any rights (unlike buying shares of real casinos) but only get a promise to share future profits in accordance with your contribution.
I have doubts about real investing (buying shares) in a casino: when I look at the market, I see that when it falls, all shares fall at about the same rate, and when it grows, innovative companies show the greatest growth. The casino does not belong to the "new" type of business and in fact does not have any innovations - in fact, it is a conservative business and it cannot generate income above the market. In addition, this business is always criticized by a large part of society and always carries the risks of tightening regulation.
186  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My worst day in gambling on: September 28, 2022, 04:42:40 PM
If you actually learned from ot then, the lose has profited you in some way. In a way that you know when to draw the line and be sure to keep to it. You try not to compromise and you would be good otherwise, it won't be your last time loosing a 2 month salary in an hour, now that's painful you know. A hard earned 2 months and worst if you've got family that are hoping on that money.

Gbling can be rel tricky and that's why it's best played by matured minds and not just adults by age. Too bad the online restriction relies on you just clicking I'm over 18 and we can't place a line on maturity/discipline.

Experience is indeed a valuable asset. This oddity amazes me - everyone knows that Martingale does not work, but everyone tries it and only after personal unsuccessful experience they abandon this strategy. It happened to me and it happens to many other gamblers. Perhaps this is due to the fact that people tend to evaluate themselves as "special" and wait for a miracle. After they lose the deposit, they return to reality and no longer give in to dreams (this is in a good case, in a bad case they believe that next time everything will be different and they will be lucky).
187  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: September 28, 2022, 04:35:36 PM
Judging by the bookmakers' estimates, the Netherlands have approximately equal chances with Spain and Germany. The Netherlands are rated at 12.7 and Spain and Germany at 8.8 and 10.7. These are fairly close estimates, indicating that the Netherlands is in the group of favorites.
By the way, why do you think that European teams will perform badly at the World Cup? The Cup is formally held in Asia, but in fact it is a time zone in Europe. Therefore, I rather expect that Europe, as always, will dominate.

I don't agree with this. Spain maybe the favorites from the UEFA region and Germany is also a quite strong side (although they have performed very poorly in the UEFA nations league). Netherlands is far behind when compared to these two teams.

I am just assuming that UEFA teams will find it hard to adjust to the climatic conditions in the middle-east. Last time, when the world cup was held in Asia (South Korea/Japan), it was Brazil who lifted the trophy. Another aspect is that none of the UEFA teams (not even Spain) seems to be in peak form right now. Brazil seems to be far ahead of all the other teams.

If you are judging the shape of the teams by the games in the League of Nations, then most likely in vain. Firstly, no one takes them seriously (except for outsiders and teams that are left out of the main tournament like Italy). Secondly, even if these teams are not in shape now, what difference does it make? After all, it will only matter how fit they will be during the World Cup, which does not start tomorrow.
In terms of climate conditions, hasn't Qatar guaranteed that there will be some kind of super stadiums with fully air-conditioned throughout the stadium? I think I've heard something similar.
188  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gacha Game on: September 28, 2022, 04:28:13 PM
Gacha games are quite popular lately, I saw my nephew is very addicted to playing the game, he plays through his android phone, I once asked my nephew, what game do you play, Gacha, he said, what made you so enthusiastic about playing the game.

He said Gacha game, random game can spend money by buying cards or packs and complete challenges, after that I saw how they play, I'm starting to worry about the Gacha game, the game is easy to access via mobile, they play buying rolls without anyone knowing, especially parents, this game is very risky to kids nowadays, for me the game is a misleading practice, kids can spend thousands of dollars with random items available in Gacha game, In my opinion gacha games are not good to play, games drain money, (even) these games have mastered 80% of children in all countries.

Parents should control their children's spending, at least be aware of what they spend money on (although this comes into conflict with children's right to privacy). As for games on mobile phones, I've been completely disappointed with them lately - they consist almost entirely of ads (which give you a boost for every action) and constant begging for money.
As they joke about the developers:
- oh, we forgot to add gameplay!
- вon't worry, no one will notice.
189  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: September 28, 2022, 04:07:23 PM
Roma did their best to get the win but when they play Inter in the next match it looks like they have no other choice but to defend and as much as possible should take advantage of the slightest opportunity to try to shoot at Inter in the hope of getting a goal, because Inter are not an opponent to be played against. easy to beat and Roma have to work as a team so that Inter are not easily penetrated.

Is this a new tactic for a team run by Mourinho? It is obvious that Roma will play number two, since on paper Inter is a stronger team and in the away game for Roma even a draw will be a good result. It is clear that the ideal scenario for Roma would be that Inter need a win to keep up with the leaders, so they will go ahead with a big force that will allow Roma to have chances in counterattack, but even if Roma fails to score, they will be happy to score a point in this game.
190  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [CHESS] FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament 2022 on: September 28, 2022, 04:01:23 PM
Have you seen this video? The most incriminating evidence against Hans Niemann

I was sure that cheating could not be hidden at a distance and that sooner or later there would be more good reasons to consider Niemann a cheater than suspicion. And in fact it happened. You can watch later clips from this channel - now everyone is intensively checking all available games for correlation with computer moves, but no one has even a close result like Niemann's.

I think that Magnus Carlsen openly accused Niemann of cheating based on these data as well. Now the ball is on the side of Niemann and in the coming days we should expect some statements from him.
191  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: September 27, 2022, 06:25:15 PM
Yes, PSG last season still had some problems and one of them was about Messi and also about their previous coach, but this season they have gotten better. With a performance like this where they have a coach who can get their players back to their best, and even the current coach can reshape the chemistry of previously broken players, then of course their chances of advancing further in the Champions League are very possible. I'm personally optimistic that PSG this season will reach the Champions League final, because this season is a season where PSG have a better form and their chances are very good this season.

PSG ended last season as they started this season - mostly big wins against all the teams in Ligue 1. Of course this happened after they were knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid but the fact remains - if we talk about the interaction of players, then by the end of the past season it was at a high level. If the results of the current season are assessed as a continuation of the past, then we can assume that PSG will be more successful in the Champions League this season. But there are no guarantees, because let's say in the 1/8 or 1/4 finals they can meet with Manchester City or Bayern, and then their next relegation will be quite likely.
192  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My worst day in gambling on: September 27, 2022, 06:16:00 PM
My worst gambling-related day was the day I lost about two months' salary in an hour. I played Martingale then and didn't calculate the initial bet, which led to the fact that after several consecutive losses I simply had no money left.

This situation allowed me to gain precious experience that will be with me for the rest of my life.

Generally agree with you and a few pages earlier I described a similar experience that happened to me.
But what does it mean not calculated the initial bet? Whatever initial bet you come up with, sooner or later it would turn out that your deposit would run out. Martingale always works like this.
193  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: September 27, 2022, 05:42:11 PM
I don't know why everyone is so excited about the Netherlands. They are simply not in the same league as Spain, England, France or Germany. And you can't even compare them to CONMEBOL teams such as Argentina and Brazil. And overall, I don't think that UEFA teams are going to do well, because the tournament is taking place in Asia. I will be really surprised, if Netherlands manage to reach the semi-finals. They are placed in a relatively easier group, along with Qatar, Ecuador and Senegal. But the knockout phase is going to be hard.

Judging by the bookmakers' estimates, the Netherlands have approximately equal chances with Spain and Germany. The Netherlands are rated at 12.7 and Spain and Germany at 8.8 and 10.7. These are fairly close estimates, indicating that the Netherlands is in the group of favorites.
By the way, why do you think that European teams will perform badly at the World Cup? The Cup is formally held in Asia, but in fact it is a time zone in Europe. Therefore, I rather expect that Europe, as always, will dominate.
194  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: September 27, 2022, 05:27:45 PM
today a new ranking of the most valuable players in the top 5 leagues was published on transfermarkt. according to this ranking the forward from psg Kylian Mbappe is in first place and close behind is the new man city forward Erling Haaland
with 5 players the premier league has the most world stars listed here, then spain with 2 and the leagues from italy, germany and france with one player each



I would like to know the method of calculating this rating. Is Neymar worse than Vlahovic or Kane and not worthy of being in this ranking? Neymar is close (only a few goals left) to surpass Pele's record for goals for the national team, and he is far from old. Another confirmation that all these ratings are subjective.
It would also be interesting to look at this ranking in terms of salaries paid to the player - it is obvious that Mbappe, with his astronomical salary, would be far from the first place. Because the ratio of cost per player to the result that the player generates would be very weak.
195  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The UEFA Nations League 2020/2021 Discussion Thread on: September 27, 2022, 08:57:54 AM
I don't know if you are right about Deschamps' position on the importance of the League of Nations, but if you are right it is a very dangerous position. After a series of failures in an "unimportant" tournament, fans will expect the team to perform not just better, but much better in an important tournament, and it seems to me that if France does not reach at least the semi-finals in the World Cup, this will lead to Deschamps being fired.
Even in an unimportant tournament, such star players, simply due to their level, should have better results than France currently has. This is a sign that the coach is doing something wrong.

if you were france's coach, you would say to your players: "play a lot seriously, we need to win" and at the end of the game 5 players get injured, and you as a coach even before that game you already had a large number of injured players, then the world cup arrives and you don't have good players to play with, would that be a good strategy? I do not think so! The best option is not to take this tournament seriously and save the players for the world cup, because the world cup is a serious competition where all teams will be taking it seriously. franca's coach is looking to the future and what is more important

Do you think that if players play seriously, they will definitely get injured? But this has nothing to do with reality. And, Ok, let's say Deschamps is afraid for his players, in which case why doesn't he call up the second/third squad to the national team for this unimportant tournament? It would make sense - they could play seriously and since they are not stars they would have the motivation to play very well to prove themselves.
If the players are called up to the national team, then they must show at least some minimum level of skill / game. France actually showed a result that is much worse than the "expected" result, even if we rate these games as friendly.
196  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: September 26, 2022, 05:40:57 PM
The return of Messi is not going to be that beneficial for both parties in my opinion. It's something like people say to never meet your heroes, and we can also say that the Messi era has ended and it's time for Barcelona to build their squad without having him in mind.
The return, if happens, will be similar to the return of Ronaldo to Manchester United. They are both very old players and one season can change their body and performance a lot. You can verify it with Ibrahimovic and Ronaldo. Their performance suddenly falls a lot in two consecutive seasons. It's ageing effect that is unavoidable.

In general I agree with you, but I did not notice that Ronaldo's efficiency dropped last season - for the Premier League he showed an excellent result even playing at Manchester United. This season he has problems, but everyone knows what caused them - the uncertainty at the beginning of the season and the disruption of the preparatory period when he did not train with Manchester United. It is likely that he will recover.
And I agree that Messi's return to Barcelona would not make sporting sense, but perhaps it would make PR/commercial sense? In the end, he is a symbol of the club and may well play (even if only as a substitute) for at least one more season.
197  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- 2022/23 | Group Stage on: September 26, 2022, 05:34:30 PM
English clubs are already used to having matches every 3 days, or a little less sometimes. And this is valid for almost all clubs, even those that are not in European competitions. And this is valid for almost all clubs, even those that are not in European competitions. Before, I think the fact that Real Madrid had a comfortable lead in the Spanish league, which allowed for better management of the games, was fundamental for them to have a good success in the Champions League last season.

It probably mattered, but it was hardly decisive. Real Madrid's advantage appeared for a reason, but because Real initially invested/spent a resource to get it - Ancelotti built a schedule of team readiness for the season in such a way that Real could get this advantage. And I can’t say that after gaining an advantage in the championship, Real began to play worse there - even taking into account the fact that Barcelona flew out of all competitions and could concentrate on La Liga, the distance between Real and Barcelona did not decrease, that is, Real continued to go in the champion’s schedule.
This season, it seems to me that Ancelotti again brought Real Madrid to the peak of form very early and this again is bearing fruit so far. And this is very logical - after all, from the point of view of the club, it is better to squeeze the maximum out of the players now, because then they will still spend their energy in the World Cup.
198  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: When betting becomes to high on: September 26, 2022, 05:19:51 PM
Just set your own limits, no excuses if you go past the limit consider it a loss at that point regardless of any game report you cannot consider gambling capital thats not available as any kind of win.   Close it for the day and move onto other things, it does take some discipline but the main point is to always take anything past that limit as the wall for gambling on that day.   A set amount every day is way more healthy then risking it all on just 1 night.

In addition to setting limits, even if a person is perfectly disciplined and does not go beyond it, it is sometimes necessary to take a vacation from gambling.
I am familiar with the situation when a gambler plays almost every day, while he has a weekly limit and he "stretches" it sometimes for almost the whole week. At the same time, even if he is not playing at the moment, he is still "involved" in gambling - he plans future gaming sessions, keeps track of expenses, etc. In my opinion, even this is an unhealthy situation, because in life you have to think about many other things. Therefore, in order to clear the mind, it is useful to take a complete vacation from gambling, for example, for a month.
199  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The UEFA Nations League 2020/2021 Discussion Thread on: September 26, 2022, 05:08:20 PM
Denmark 2 - 0 France



france was playing with Mbappe, Giround, Griezman. But the coach of france started to replace these players and more other players, in a clear message: "I don't care about this league" this is my perception, france has zero interest in this competition, they can't even fake it or disguise it . I put my money knowing that, but I hoped that they would at least try a little and win the game, but I was wrong in that part and lost a bet, I'm glad I didn't put the same amount I always bet, for this game I put a value very low

I don't know if you are right about Deschamps' position on the importance of the League of Nations, but if you are right it is a very dangerous position. After a series of failures in an "unimportant" tournament, fans will expect the team to perform not just better, but much better in an important tournament, and it seems to me that if France does not reach at least the semi-finals in the World Cup, this will lead to Deschamps being fired.
Even in an unimportant tournament, such star players, simply due to their level, should have better results than France currently has. This is a sign that the coach is doing something wrong.
200  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My worst day in gambling on: September 26, 2022, 04:37:49 PM
-skip-
How about you do you had a worst day on gambling  that you will never forget ?Did it affect an aspect of your life and how ?

My worst day was much less problematic (I don't even remember it, I only remember the general situation) and had no consequences. I think that many people have gone through something like this: I learned about gambling -> "invented" Martingale -> I was lucky for a while, and then I lost my entire deposit.
By the way, I can’t say that it was that bad - I received the necessary vaccination against excessive gambling and after many years (20 years) I can say that I had no problems with gambling.
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