The early adopters took a pretty big risk.  I think they deserve any rewards they got/have for that risk.

If it went north in a significant way, and if at that time I had a need for FIAT then I might unload a small percentage to straddle both worlds, but my overall intention would be to live in crypto.  Added to that, if I didn't have a FIAT need at that time, then I'd load up on the dips and back it up more. 

We all have different circumstances and timing, but I'm here for crypto, not for making numbers in crappy national paper currency, even though we all have to still use it for now on a day to day basis.

I get what you're saying, but RSI isn't a predictive indicator.  It could bounce around in the upper margin for an extended period if it wanted to.  I'm not saying it is a useless indicator, but that its use isn't in prediction, more for rule of thumb value measurement at best.

April 1st joke aside, there's as much chance of a country adopting BTC as its national currency as there is of adopting Apple/Google/Msoft shares as it's currency, but that doesn't mean it won't become a popular investment just like the above shares.

It has so much more potential than any of those shares though.  It could creep through the financial soil like fungi, without being even noticeable from the surface.

A chunk of that may already be priced in, and we get a disappointing fizzle when they actually occur.

I think the halving might have more effect than the other events we're watching, maybe starting a couple of months before, as people get a feel for what the price could be climbing 'from', rather than guessing too far into the future.

If you look at the multi-year price trend (i.e. edit it out the spikes and look for a baseline), it's already perhaps a little higher than where it should be (not that markets are known for being rational), but if we get get out of the mode of thinking of winning the lottery every 6 months, and see it as a standard investment, then it's providing very solid returns based on it's evolution, which are way above inflation.  For all it's volatility, there aren't that many investments available to average Joe that we can say that about.

PM's to me are a long time frame investment (or should I say wealth preservation) decision.

BTC has lots of potential and an unignorable downside too.

I would say it should be a decision based on your timeframe and risk tolerance.  Are you comfortable with a 100% loss if the upside is several orders of magnitude on the upside, and (for example - not fact - a 50/50 chance either way)?

If you make one good prediction, then stop! and leave with your head held high.

If you've ever looked at the portfolio managers and top performers over 1 year, 2 years etc, the best recent one is almost never the best one the following year, and even if they achieve that, the probability of being top the following year diminishes again. 

That doesn't mean the under performer will automatically flip into position either.  If we all knew that then there wouldn't be a market.

The guy has a lot of zeros on the end of his account balance for sure, but if you measure it in ROI % then there are a few people on this forum that have massively outperformed Buffet.

When you get to his portfolio size then you have to invest in a different style than a small player, because you don't want to own the whole market and have nobody to sell to.

It happens I'm sure, but it would be a bit of a stretch to suggest that it's an all encompassing theory of everything Bitcoin.

How many times have we all read ad nauseam "don't invest more than you can afford to lose"?  If people actually did that then there would be no panic selling.

Personally there is no bottom price that would make me sell.  Only personal circumstances that squeezed me would make me sell anything, not anything to do with the market, only because I'd run out of resources elsewhere.

Which nation has jurisdiction to enforce taxes on BTC?  It's the only FIAT without a country.

I'm told US citizens are taxable anywhere in the world, but I get the impression that is the exception rather than the rule, and only 5% of the world population, and even then a US citizen can disengage if they choose.

My origin country, domicile, business incorporation, play ground are all different (aiming for the 5 flags/PT setup, but not quite there yet), but still, I'm not sure who would claim rights over me for taxes*.  I'm for sure not the only one who does this.  There must be millions of people doing something similar.  All legal and above board.

*I still have to pay taxes on beer, gas, food etc via sales tax/VAT/GST in whatever place I happen to be at the time.

When I first happened upon Bitcoin I was immediately hooked, and tried to sell the idea to anyone who would listen.  I didn't have much success so I shut up about it.  When the GOX climb began they got interested and wanted in at any price.  Two of them came to see me clutching FIAT in their hands, all but begging me to get in on the deal (this was near ATH).

Sometimes if something is given freely it has no value, but when the price goes up they take it more seriously.

I only know 8 other people IRL that actually hold BTC, and 6 of those were because of me pushing the concept, the other 2 found it for themselves.  None of them are even remotely close to student age.  Youngest 42 y/o, oldest 72 y/o.  Also 6 of them are looking to accumulate more, where as 2 of them who are not looking to acquire more had bought ATH in fear of missing out.  That's a pity, but I had been pitching the idea since 2011 and they didn't show interest then.  They just pounced on me one day out of the blue to put the task on me to sort it all out for them.  They still don't understand what they have, how to sell them, or use their wallet.  I should have refused to help (especially at that price when it was going vertical and we didn't know what was behind the exuberance, but they were quite pushy and cost me a lot of time, when they should have been studying about it to do it themselves).

If I were a teacher I think I'd get some of the "Bitcoin Blackboard" tutorials by James DeAngelo off youtube and kick back, since they cover a lot more about finance than just Bitcoin.  After that a couple of select Andreas Antonopolous videos if there was interest.

...so long as the guy in front of you isn't blocking your paid for fast lane.  Maybe in a generation or so, but it's going to take a while.  Look at toll booths in London.  It will take a lot of time to implement that around the world.  Great concept though for wealth distribution (and being an intentional sunday driver).

I have a modest website that accepts BTC.  It hasn't had many BTC transactions, but I've *never* sold any BTC that was earned by the website (via BitPay).  People talk about cashing out to FIAT quite a lot, but I can tell you for sure that I'd rather take a short term loss on BTC with the intention of promoting it for the long term.

I invested and got my investment back plus a reasonable amount, and still have some BTC as well for a free lottery ticket.  Nothing to write home about, but net positive on BTC and USD.  Since the Gox fiasco I haven't traded at all (took a minor loss there) and just holding now.

This part I can't get my head around.  If a 'currency' is a measure of an actual asset (swerving the money as debt issue) rather than the asset itself (meaning that you don't include money as part of 'all that has value' but rather, a proxy of something that has value), then it would surely mean that comparing satoshi to USD would become meaningless since it would have become its replacement, but comparing it to a house would still stand.  After all, aren't we valuing houses with USD right now?  It's just the measuring stick that changes.

For the Satoshi = 1USD scenario, I can't see it as even remotely likely, but if it were to happen, we could just add another byte onto the protocol and get 8 more decimal places.  Sure it would be a hard fork, but that's not as negative as it could sound.  It's not like people would be losing something by conforming to consensus, and could be planned well in advance.  I mean they managed to pull of the switch over to Euro (crazy as that was), and that did mean people started rounding up prices for ease of mental comfort, but adding decimal places rather than changing the measuring stick would be a walk in the park by comparison.

In an ideal world, I wouldn't be intending ever to cash out much at all, other than a very small amount to take care of FIAT needs.  For everything else, there's bitcoin.

I've never used a swear word on this forum, and will avoid now, but...

What utter tosh!

I suspect VC investments have a high failure rate, but they just need to spread their net wide in the hopes of catching the big one.