The golden cross indicator trolled people into buying back on the 2008 crash way too early, only to be dumped again. If it plays out as it did then the SP500 may fall another 30 to 35% which would mean BTC dumps once again to potentially 12k. Im not buying this hopium, still too many moonboys on this train to call a proper capitulation, holding cash for better prices.

Probably because they are paranoid they are going to get backstabbed and their networth stolen if they get too close to other people. That is why it's best to just never consider a Bitcoiner and never claim you own anything to anyone.

Bitcoin is overbought right now im book. 40% gains since the bottom, has not took a break in a while. Employment data from the US came in good, so I think that caused the SP500 to not correct, which means the BTC price followed and is staying in there. However I think this is the last good US employment data before recession really kicks in, which means SP500 should correct and so will BTC. Not to mention Russia-NATO war is pretty unpredictable and could cause a crash that screws up resistances.

It's going to be the same in any developed mainstream country. How do you think authorities will react when you show up with 1 million worth of BTC?
I've seen some people claim if you just claim 0 cost purchase and pay your taxes they will leave you alone but with I think they are lying and just hoping that's how it works.
In practice you are gambling that they start an investigation and once it starts the consequences are unpredictable. You may get a slap in the wrist or you may end up in big trouble. The question is, is it worth doing this gamble?

And as far as exchanging it for cash, this is useless. 1) You cannot do anything with cash other than buy small purchases, 2) They will eventually ban cash, so you will have nothing

As far as I can tell, you are trapped in BTC. Since it's too much too cash out, and it's too little to start some sort of tax haven structure (and there's still risk anyway)

This is an interesting option, what do you use for encryption? Could you do this with a GUI? I know about dm-crypt and luks, but Veracrypt has the best and easy to use GUI, which means there's less chance to screw up in the process.

Also, not sure if that would work in certain places. Perhaps in the west, but what about places like China? they may think you are just trying to do plausible deniability. It's one of those things.

When I post some bearish theory I don't expect to move the market in any way and anyone that isn't crazy should think the same, we cannot move market with some bitcointalk post or twitter post. Perhaps if you are Elon Musk you can pump and dump some smaller marketcap altcoins, but even Elon Musk isn't big enough to sustain a market pump in Bitcoin any shape or form.

The FED does what the FED does, which in theory is to stop inflation and deflation from going out of hand and achieves this by raising or lowering the interest rates. You cannot blame them for doing their job. The market reacts the way it wants. BTC is not decoupling from the SP500 as far as we can see, so it's just like leveraged SP500.

Now it would be interesting to see how markets would react if there was no FED, some say it would be better and others say without the FED it wouldn't work. In any case, no one is forcing Bitcoin holders react to the FED, and for now it just follows the stock market.

Not really. A knife, axe or a phone allows for plausible denniability. "I was carring the knife to cut some bread, the axe to chop some trees, and the phone to make some calls".

However, when you are found with a HW, what are you going to say? Exactly.


There are random searches:

https://www.reddit.com/r/privacy/comments/w0rxbu/comment/ightvoj/

You don't want to end up in a situation where you are forced to decrypt:
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/legal/man-who-refused-to-decrypt-hard-drives-still-in-prison-after-two-years/

Not surprised since in Russia you can get arrested for protesting holding a blank piece of paper. Russia would be a great place for mining since the temp is ideal and could be reused as heating. However Putin wouldn't like a currency that would lower rubble usage. Wasn't crypto banned in Russia several times already? I remember such headlines from 2014.

Renting is better tan owning a home because you can easily switch up between tax residences if needed, or just move around within the same country. Your neighbors may become annoying and if you own the home you are now stuck, if you want to move you'll have to pay big taxes on the sale. Only if you are sure you want to live on the same place for decades I would bother with buying a home. Also if someone occupies your home you may have problems in certain jurisdiction kicking these people out. Overall just not a good investment. If you are mega rich then maybe it would be cool to own a home here and there but not in most cases, even if you have a couple of million, I would just invest elsewhere.

Laptops are forced to be handled randomly on airport checkups for instance. Never travel with sensitive information. As far as Wifi in hotels, you can always pick an airbnb with internet if needed.


HW's are anti privacy because it already reveals by default you are holding Bitcoin.

I would probably get a premium TradingView account but honestly it's not really needed, I haven't paid mine in a while and I can work just fine with the default features. There are good indicators you can get for free. There are no magic tools anyway, having a job that pays well is the most important part as you can just invest bigger chunks and assume less risks which should make you more money long term than trying to guess what's going to happen next at all times.

Is there such a thing being developed and kept updated? What I mean is a distro that comes with preinstalled software that you would need for any Bitcoin related business (full node software like Core, another lightweight software like Electrum, all libraries pre-installed, Tor, some other useful tools and everything else declutted)

I ask this because if you were to for instance land in another country, and you needed to install everything from scratch, it would take a ton of time. If you could have everything in an .iso more or less ready to run, you would just get your laptop (which you wiped before crossing any borders) and install your linux Bitcoin distro, and leave it there installing everything while you chill on your hotel's swimming pool or something. After a while everything is ready so you just enter your passphrase or recover your wallet.dat which you temporarily left somewhere in the cloud encrypted and get your coins ready.

I know Tails has Electrum but it doesn't have Bitcoin Core. It also has a ton of stuff I don't need and Electrum is always outdated.

The idea would be a minimalist setup, with some sort of system that automatically downloads, verifies and compiles the required software and libraries during the installation process.

If we separate Bitcoin from "money" as it's not a traditional form of currency, then yes, since you cannot clone your money and save these backups all over the place. You have many advantages with BTC compared to classic money. With fiat you either save it on a bank or keep the bills somewhere safe, with BTC you can save your private keys in a million forms whether it be physical or digital.

Just made a thread about this before I saw your thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5436930.0

Basically my take is that the debt ceiling debate is not priced in. It's coming and it's coming with massive amounts of drama. Democrats are pushing for a coup d'etat if needed, in order to print the infamous trillion dollar platinum coin. Republicans which got the House are going to push for negotiations. No matter what I think the market is sleeping on this and it's not priced in by any means. Moons are aligning too and this coincides with the dollar bottom, sp500 top as well as btc top. I believe markets will go into the usd, making the price go up, and then the FED raising rates again. BTC will just follow the sp500 which means down. Then later this year recesion and unemployment will hit, forming a bottom, that's were markets will capitulate and BTC will go to all time highs by 2024/2025 as well as the sp500.

And the most money is probably made by taking a position during these 6 months before the market officially shows that we've been in a bull/bear market, so you have to gamble nontheless if you want to maximize your gains (which of course means maximizing risk too, but that's part of the game).

The debt ceiling clusterfuck will start in the following months. Checks in right at the breakout of the SP500 and the BTC chart, as well as the dollar bouncing off its main trendline, may cause a hawkish move by the FED.

So both the fundamentals and the technicals check in for a fakeout which would wipe contrarians trying to go long on this thesis. We'll see something in the coming weeks.

Apparently Luke said somewhere that he used Bitcoin Knots wallet as his wallet to both store and transact, and that he kept it on the same laptop or in a computer that was connected to the internet during the transaction (he didn't craft the transaction in an offline computer that's airgapped and then broadcasted this into a node). Why? This would explain a point of failure, because I don't see how you can get hacked as long as the private keys were always in an airgapped environment (beside physical intervention but apparently this isn't the case here)

I would rather have US dollars, included with the inflation, debt ceiling upcoming clusterfuck and so on, rather than trust Russia and Iran issuing IOU's over my so called gold backed stablecoin's ownership. Only someone that is deluded enough would trust these states over the US no matter how much you hate Russia. Same applies for China. I just tend to not trust countries where they make people disappear at Orwellian levels.

Let's say you have 3 drives X Y Z

X has 100 GB of free space you would be ok using for the blockchain
Y has 300 GB
Z has 100 GB

Would it be possible to tell the client, "allocate 100GB to X, 300GB to Y, 100GB to Z" and have the files downloaded and verified in the right order?
And you could just keep adding further drives in case you ran out of space. Right now if you run out of space you have to buy a bigger device that allows at least 500GB at least once in case you used pruned mode, but for someone that wants to keep the entire blockchain this would be good. It would also give some usage for smaller drives you don't use much.