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181  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 09, 2015, 01:10:20 AM


While this still represents a small quantity of coins I think it is important bc I believe that these are become very low velocity coins -- that is buyer would obly pay the premium and the inconvenience of face2face if he/she is holding.
182  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 08, 2015, 03:59:28 PM
Anyone in greece with money should be loading up on physical euro gold silver bitcoins.  Bitcoins because they are easily hidden.  In today's world without bank secrecy presumably greek govt could insist that foreign banks divulge its citizens holdings.  Tax revenue is down; looks like ppl are deferring debt payments in favor of holding.
183  Economy / Speculation / Re: Virtual currency transactions expected to plummet in 2015 on: February 04, 2015, 08:44:43 PM
Ripple Labs is already focusing overwhelming on that approach and in the medium term we may see a role evolution to this end amongst other cryptocurrency players."

Ripple Labs must have amazing slideware.  All the "consultants" and "market analysis firms" fall for them lock stock and barrel.
184  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 03, 2015, 05:09:11 PM
Starting back in 2011, a chimp could have become a millionaire, let alone a human.

you have no idea what you're talking about, not being anywhere around here during that time.  sentiment was WAY worse and this forum was crawling with a majority of trolls.  in fact, it was so bad that i started my first 2 threads in this Spec forum in an attempt to counteract the spiral down in sentiment.

Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze?

How many of you have been Zhoutonged?

those threads are filled with bear venom.  the risk of investing back then was MUCH higher than it is now.  why?  b/c we were so much closer to zero and total failure.  when it broke below 2 to 1.98, the large final capitulatory downstroke was completed as bears and bulls alike vomited up their last units.  we're nowhere close to that after a downturn over 3x as long.

200 is the new 2 (and all you bears should keep in mind that that's 100x return in 3 years)
185  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long-term discussion on Bitcoin's price trend on: February 02, 2015, 06:24:41 PM
The driving force behind Bitcoin is illegal activity. Silk Road drugs, China exchange control evasion, and, in the background, gambling. Without some new large-scale illegal or semi-illegal activity adopting Bitcoin, the overall trend is down.

Not really.  The driving force is holders.  Holding a single coin consumes as much supply as a huge amount of economic activity if you assume a reasonable but still very conservative velocity.  For example if a transaction ties coins up for 3 days on average then holding has 100x the effect as activity.

What's the driving force behind holders? 

First, liquidity.  Its important to be able to easily spend BTC.  This is why exchanges are important and why other economic activity (legal or illegal) is important.  Liquidity, portability, and easy-to-hold-yourself are the key arguments to prefer BTC over gold for holding (its a PITA to redeem your gold coins for USD or food).  So removing liquidity removes a big advantage, although not the only advantage.  So Gox was a big blow and conversely the coinbase exchange is a shot of liquidity confidence for US markets... but the real confidence comes from seeing consistent economic activity occurring.  So if you want BTC to succeed, spend your coins (and rebuy them)!  While its obviously less convenient (than other forms of payment) if you buy exactly what you need just before you spend, I find it faster and more convenient if I load my phone once a month (say) and then spend when needed.  I can point my phone at a QR and press pay a lot faster than getting out my CC and typing in all the numbers...

Second, diversification.  Holders want to move some assets away from their home country currency.  And by extension move some assets away from all currencies using the same potentially flawed management system (central banks).  But stabilization of the fiat systems means that pressure to diversify out of fiat is pretty low right now (I am guessing I haven't done research).  And for those doing it, Bitcoin is not comparing as favorably against stocks, real estate, gold, etc because of the year long BTC price decline.  However, that vicious circle can reverse quickly with 3-5 months of price stabilization or slight rise (as we saw in 2012).  And recent behavior in Greece might bring the flaws of the global fiat currency systems to the forefront once again, depending on the repercussions of the 240 bln default has.  Remember, QE etc (essentially buying loans with newly printed $) has no long term effect on inflation (in fact, causes deflation), because eventually the money gets paid back.  Once paid back, the QE printed money is retired so net is 0 (actually net is negative given payment of interest on the loan).  Works great UNTIL the loan defaults.  At that point, the QE money will never be paid back -- so there's now 240bln additional euros permanently in the supply.  Oops.

186  Economy / Speculation / Re: Super Bowl and the Bitcoin price on: February 02, 2015, 04:45:53 AM
I hate the patriots and am sad they won but  I doubt this has anything to do with the bitcoin price. Just want to see it go up though  Cry

Then you hate the game as it is played today.  Yet again the Pats prove that the age old rushing or long bomb game perfected by so many of the traditional powerhouse southern and western teams is dead.  And yes I know almost nothing about football :-).



 
187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 31, 2015, 04:15:39 PM
From the bitcoin dev mailing list quoting Wladimir van der Laan:

Quote
The block chain is a single channel broadcasted over the entire
world, and I don't believe it will ever be possible nor desirable to broadcast all the
world's transactions over one channel.

The everyone-validates-everything approach doesn't scale. It is however
useful to settle larger transactions in an irreversible, zero-trust way.
That's what makes the bitcoin system, as it is now, valuable.

But it is absurd for the whole world to have to validate every purchase of
a cup of coffee or a bus ticket by six billion others.

Naively scaling up the block size will get some leeway in the short term,
but I believe a future scalable payment system based on bitcoin will be
mostly based on off-blockchain transactions (in some form) or that there
will be a hierarchical or subdivided system (e.g. temporary or per-locale
sidechains).

Thanks for quoting that!  Wladimir's quietness in the public muck is as pronounced as his activity in the codebase.  I never knew where he stood on this stuff.  My natural guess would be that anyone who is bright enough to be such a prolific code contributor would immediately understand certain things like this, but...Gavin...

As someone who has worked on and designed data management systems, Wladimir's statement is so common sense to me that it shouldn't even need to be stated.  I am aghast that there is so much dispute about it.  A very strong hypothesis is that many people who have some technical skills are busying themselves with solutions which will be viable only by at least a scaling induced semi-failure of Bitcoin...and those who's technical and analytical skills are weak or non-existent are just expressing their inborn goober-ishness.

Sidechains not only soundly addresses the issue, but the two-way peg completely demolishes any economic concerns as well.



There is no doubt that a single forever remembered blockchain cannot handle every tip or coffee bought so offchain or better sidechains are needed.  But that does not mean that BTC should not also be scaled in block size.  With the price trending down discouraging new holders we need to welcome any and all real use.  And approaching a txn limit does not help that.
188  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Despondancy Stage on: January 30, 2015, 09:59:21 PM
Its very simple.  The price is depressed by 3600 new coins per day.  And no it doesn't matter that exchanges are doing tens of thousands of trades per day -- most are likely the same coins passed between the same traders.  It doesn't matter that miners often hold.  If they weren't holding mined coins they would have been buyers.

Creating the next wave will be actual use or fear-driven diversification.

By actual use I don't mean another exchange.  I mean remittance, changetip, to a lesser degree credit card replacement (since the benefits are minimal, esp if you don't already hold BTC), and most importantly new uses.

Diversification is not happening much now because most people are momentum buyers and central banks are mostly keeping a lid on things.  So there is less reason to diversify out of fiat currencies, and BTC is not perceived as such a great choice even if you wanted to.
 
This could change if we have a few months stability or a gradual rise.  But again, this will be hard at 3600 coin inflation per day.





189  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 30, 2015, 08:28:14 PM
i thought nat gas was the next great bull mkt putting the US on top of the energy pyramid?

Aren't these mutually exclusive?  US gets "on top of the energy pyramid" by supplying incredibly cheap nat gas, not by providing expensive product.
190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 30, 2015, 07:19:39 AM
this is trouble; for the Europeans and major lenders of Greek debt:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/alexis-tsipras-open-letter-germany-what-you-were-never-told-about-greece

note how some leaders actually think like we think.

Wow he's so far "left" he's come full circle and is on the right.  No more bailouts.   Just declare bankruptcy and move on
191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 28, 2015, 09:43:32 PM
It's still being treated as a stock/commodity.

 Huh - It is a commodity - Maybe in 2021 when inflation is less than 1% we can start to talk about it as a currency

No 2016 3% is very much inline with fiat... in 2021 it will be something new.
192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 28, 2015, 09:19:15 PM
Here's one that will blow Varoufakis tiny mind wide open.

http://aeon.co/magazine/technology/are-we-ready-for-companies-that-run-themselves/

Quote
Which vision will win out? That will depend less on the specific capacities of the technology than on the ability of governments and electorates to grasp what it is and what it means. One way or another, it looks like RoboCorp will be able to look out for itself. In the meantime, we need to get our own house in order.

sort your shit out, robocorp is coming  Smiley

That's a great read, thanks. Sometimes I wonder if Satoshi's most impactful and valuable invention might turn out to be the invention of the first DAC.

Bitcoin as money is a mechanism to regain what we lost and help return to the principles of sound money that we had under the gold standard (albeit with a much better payment function).

But the invention of the first DAC enables entire new concepts that we've never had before, and can help disintermediate functions for society that have always required government or middle men before. This has potential we don't understand yet, and will probably take a long time to develop, but will be revolutionary.

I remember reading that theymos likes Iain Banks' sci-fi Culture novels. It was probably apparent to him early on that Bitcoin is a currency that would fit into that civilization. I think that DACs go to the next level with incredible potential, easily the backbone of an economy this size of the Culture.
Back on Earth, the future world economy will be transformed, and far more efficient, if DACs take off.

AFAIK DACS preexisted BTC.  I learned about them in the context of open source hardware.  BTC is interesting because it provides one DAC mechanism... but what it rewards is very limited (mining).  Others have proposed plans like divvying up money based on source control checkins.  This is distributed dev, but still centralized rewards.
193  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 26, 2015, 02:44:04 PM
Is the news in regards to Coinbase the one that we have been waiting for over a year?
Could this be the next push into a record breaking high?  Wink

It's definitely a big deal. Unprecedented and historic. I have no idea what the eventual price effect will be, but anything is possible here.



The timing of btc backgrounders in major news outlets (ex WSJ) strongly hints that a heavy hitter is moving into the pump phase.
194  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 26, 2015, 05:28:26 AM
National Bank of Greece:  dead, dead, and about to get deader:

20 yr weekly:



someone help me do the math here.  how many times did this stock have to get cut in half to go from the top @704 down to where it is now?

well 2**9 = 512. 
195  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 17, 2015, 10:50:01 PM
Over the summer, I called for this latest dollar rally as the price of oil was  dropping. I've strongly made the case for deflation a long time as well as hinted by rising UST's.  After the SNB did its thing the other day I mentioned to watch the dollar. This guy agrees. This is based on the fact that theUS  was lucky to geta  rally in both during the last crisis. I doubt it happens the same way this time around :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-16/about-strong-dollar
Its ez to call a dollar rally after its already confirmed ive been saying it since 2011 2012.. and the currency wars dont help.. all snb did was reassure us that central banks need to change to consensus

No I'm a reg reader.   He really did call it.  Kudos!
196  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 04, 2015, 04:48:20 AM
i have a question for the computer scientists in the crowd. 

i've noticed some things about the WP's over the last coupla years, including Satoshi's, that i wasn't aware of. first, there doesn't seem to be any peer review.  not only that but what strikes me is that it seems that authors come up with a particular logic pattern that makes sense to them and then construct maths to support that logic.  i often don't even see large data sets, testing, or simulations performed.  that supposedly is a standard for proof of a theory.  is this correct?  this is not a criticism of the CS field but just an inquiry to help me understand your field.

in many fields, a hypothesis is asked, then an experiment with blinded investigators along with large #'s of subjects and controls is carried out over a statistically significant time period to rule out investigator bias (can never do that completely) and prove that the hypothesis is correct within a std dev often of p<0.05 or 5%.  i realize these are different methods in different fields so it's hard to determine which is more rigorous.

These sorts of crypto "white papers" are not really academic papers at all. They are marketing for a piece of software (perhaps still under development). They vary in presentation from somewhat academic to not academic at all, but at their core they are entirely different in goals and methodology as you explain

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_paper#In_business-to-business_.28B2B.29_marketing

Yes every white paper I've read in this space is garbage with the exception of Satoshi and the SC one (but note I havent analyzed SC paper fully yet).  However Cypherdoc to answer your question directly, CS is not an experimental science so you would not see the kind of study you propose.  In fact that is an indicator of poor thought.  You should be looking for an algorithmic proof similar to a mathematical proof.
197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 02, 2015, 01:47:52 PM
... we can let those guys insert an op_code ...

Do you know how many op_codes bitcoin already supports and what they do ?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Script

nope.  i'm just going along with BS's new way of presenting this argument.  if we shouldn't prevent the spvp op_code, why should we prevent op_codes submitted by OT or any other alt or Bitcoin 2.0?

Just like with bitcoin we should evaluate these new opcodes on their technical merit not on who submitted them.
198  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 24, 2014, 03:33:47 PM
out of curiosity to the security experts here.

which do you consider more secure, Armory or Trezor?

I'm not a security expert, but I would say trezor (with passphrase).

It's also easier to use securely.


Trezor seems safe. A simple paper wallet generated offline on a new computer running linux is safe too  Wink

One idea is that a small custom device like the trezor could have put an accelerometer in for just a few bucks

Haveged might be really bad on an isolated device.  No interrupts coming in...
199  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 07, 2014, 03:35:36 AM
I know buterin and larimer met up in vegas this yr and larimer convinced buterik about dpos maybe now is when they switch.. another notch under the belt for
bitshares

I see that as a  negative.

Bitshares had had to change itself several times for flawed assumptions. DPOS probably won't be any better than POS. And the fact that Vitalik was meeting with and changing its own model just this summer goes to show just how incoherent their whole concept is a well.
Flawed assumptions? I guess nature is based on flawed assumptions for allowing evolution to happen.

Or it just never works at all.
Define works

Worse than that.  I found that he lacks the fundamental mental techniques needed to objectively assess an idea.  Just read the bitshares white paper.  It is (or at least was) a lot of wishes and hand waving.  I cant believe he got money... just goes to show that its more abt who u know.
200  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 04, 2014, 08:03:21 PM
i wonder if the two Voorhees are related?

    "Whatever happens, the logic now is for the issues raised in the von NotHaus case to be pursued in the political arena. We are coming up on the 50th anniversary of the Coinage Act of 1965, which stripped silver from our common coinage. President Lyndon Johnson, who signed the bill into law, called it ‘the first fundamental change in our coinage in 173 years.’ He noted that during that nearly two-century span our coinage of dimes, quarters, half dollars, and dollars have contained 90 percent silver.’

    “‘The new dimes and the new quarters will contain no silver,’ the president confessed. ‘They will be composites, with faces of the same alloy used in our 5-cent piece that is bonded to a core of pure copper.’ That is how the debasement began, though LBJ did issue a warning. ‘If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin.’

    “It was a vain boast. At the time, the value of the dollar was more than two-thirds of an ounce of silver, as it was in 1792. By January 1980, the value of a dollar plunged to less than a 49th of an ounce of silver and even today has regained nowhere near its historic value. It is a shocking abdication by the United States Congress, a point that von NotHaus has thrown into sharper relief than any monetary gadfly has managed to do in years. That is no small achievement.”


http://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/nothaus-liberty-dollar-sentencing-013/

Then spake the judge, sentencing von NotHaus to but six months of home detention, to run concurrently with three years of probation.

AND he got all $7M of silver back.  Cheesy

The judge has to slap his wrist because the coin unfortunately DOES look quite official.  But its hard to find criminal intent when the "counterfeit" coin's melt value was greater than its denominated face value (assuming you make the mistake of thinking the "dollars" on the coin refer to USD).  

The prosecution was asking for 14+ years and 16000 lbs of silver, which exemplifies one of the key problems with the US justice system.  The govt prosecutors are incapable of saying "ok we made our point.  We've brought clarity to exactly what counterfeiting is, but clearly this situation is nothing like printing $100 bills on spare paper."  Instead they go after this guy with everything they've got like he's public enemy #1.
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