Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

David Cameron steps down, so who will be the next UK Prime Minister?

After the UK voted to leave the European Union, Prime Minister David Cameron announced this morning that he will step down by October. He had urged the country to vote Remain but was defeated by 52% to 48%, so Cameron thinks that after this country needs a fresh leadership. And who will that be?

Yes, you surely think of Boris Johnson. Future Prime Minister Boris? His fortunes have soared dramatically as Britons voted to leave the European Union, as he has neatly positioned himself to become a main player in any ensuing Conservative leadership challenge. And exactly that happened today.

Next UK Prime Minister, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-uk-prime-minister/.

As Johnson consistently polls well with Conservative members, Michael Gove has enjoyed recent high popularity levels as well. He was one of the leading figures of the Brexit campaign, and thus some think he could be the next Prime Minister. Again, he has made a number of gaffes during the campaign.

Other think it could be the ‘Ice Queen’, Theresa May, the longest-serving Home secretary in 50 years. She is truly the quiet woman of British politics, but that doesn't mean May isn't interested in running for the leadership of the Party. And what about someone else, like the Chancellor George Osborne?

Anyway, Cameron said that a new leader will be in post by October, so what is your opinion on who will it be?

Who will win the 2016 World Chess Championship, Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

By defeating American star Fabiano Caruana, with the help of a brilliant rook sacrifice, Russian Grandmaster Sergey Karjakin has won the FIDE chess candidates tournament in Moscow in March and will face reigning world champion Magnus Carlsen in a title match this November in New York City.

In the 12 round match scheduled between November 11–30, that is is expected to attract a global online and TV audience of more than 1 billion fans, Carlsen will for the second time try to successfully defend his title, after taking title form Viswanathan Anand in 2013, and defending it in November 2014.

As the two Grandmasters will compete for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros, it will also be the first match for the title between such young players as they are both born in 1990. And prior to this match they have played 19 games at classical time control: Carlsen has won three, Karjakin one, and 15 games ended in a draw.

How interesting this match will be is best described by Chess.com analysist who said that it should finally answer the question from the Fischer-Karpov non-encounter: what will prevail, the genius of an individual or the iron grip of the Soviet team? Carlsen is favorite, but can Karjakin prevail? Predict at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series/.

Spain returns to the ballot box on Sunday, so who will be the next Spanish prime minister?

On following Sunday, June 26, for the first time since the end of Francoism, Spaniards will return to the polls because the parliament they elected on December 20 failed to form a new government. With this, Spain’s ultra-stable bipartysm has entered a major crisis, with challenger parties – the leftist Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos – contesting voters and ministerial posts from the mainstream forces, the conservative PP and the socialist PSOE.

And though PP will probably win the most votes, according to polls published recently, it remains without a large enough presence in the lower house to take a second term alone. It is interesting that a majority of voters of ruling PP would consent to its leader and acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stepping aside if this allowed the party to stay in government. So, does this mean that Mariano Rajoy will not be the next Prime Minister?

Who will be the next Spanish prime minister, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister-1/.

Rajoy, blamed for harsh austerity measures implemented in recent years that crippled the economy as well as political corruption cases at the PP during his leadership, is seen as the main obstacle for other parties to back a PP government. Still, even with this he is the first favorite on the markets, and if a ruling majority cannot be formed after the Sunday vote, Spaniards could potentially be forced to return to the ballot box for the third time in a year.

But, if it is not Rajoy, who could be the next Prime Minister? Many think that it could be Pablo Iglesias, who has been the Secretary-General of Podemos since 2014. This could happen if grouping of Podemos and United Left beat the once-dominant PSOE and have chance to form government. There are also some who think that it could be Pedro Sanchez, Secretary-General PSOE, but he is with rather small chances. Much smaller than he had in December.

Sunday will give some answers, but can you give them before by predicting right the next Spanish Prime Minister?

Divided we fall: What will be the voting margin in the UK's EU referendum?

‘Please don’t go’ is the headline of the Der Spiegel’s special Brexit issue, that was followed by The Economist’s ‘Divided we fall’, and looks like they worked. In recent days, polls ones again showed that Britons are going towards Remain option on the EU referendum scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 23.

EU Referendum Result, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.

Still, it is far from closed and it wouldn’t be such a huge surprise even if the UK leaves the EU on Thursday. Most of you surely have your own opinion on what the final result of this vote will be, but can you also guess right the voting margin in the following UK's EU referendum?

The voting margin in the UK's EU referendum, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-the-voting-margin-in-the-uk-s-eu-referendum/.

Currently, most chances are given that Britons will vote Remain, but under 5% margin, though margin between 5% and 10% is also likely to happen. A bit less expect that they will vote Leave under 5% margin, while any other options offers you great odds. So, what is your opinion on the UK's EU referendum?

Will Bernie Sanders endorse Hillary Clinton before the Democratic National Convention?

One of the recently most popular political markets at Fairlay was 'Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?' (you can still place your predictions on this one at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/), but though at first it looked like he will drop out after losing California, he still didn't do that.

So, if he doesn't drop out out of the nomination race before July, will Bernie at least endorse Hillary before the Democratic National Convention set to start on July 25 in Philadelphia. Currently, odds go a bit towards 'Yes', but we already learned that nothing is easy with Bernie.

Will Sanders endorse Hillary before the National Convention?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-sanders-endorse-hillary-before-the-national-convention/.

While some think that he will not endorse Hillary at all, others are sure that he will do that on Convention in order to help her defeat Trump, thus not before. There is also a popular opinion that he will endorse Hillary in the following weeks, but without droping out of the race.

What is your opinion on this market. Will Sanders endorse Clinton soon enough, or go so far to not endorse her at all?

Will there be a hard fork before July 10 (or August 1) related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?

Hot and burning topic this morning, Ethereum community is shocked by an attack in the DAO. The consequence was price dip in few hours. Because of this, the development community is proposing a soft fork (with no rollback; no transactions or blocks will be “reversed”).

But can we expect hard fork to improve given situation? Thus, you have a new market at Fairlay:

Will there be a hard fork before July 10 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-july-10-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum-1/.

And if you think that July 10 is too soon for this to be resolved, there is also a market for August 1:

Will there be a hard fork before August 1 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-august-1-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum/.

So, what is your opinion on this topic, and which side in the market do you predict it to be resolved to?

Hillary is improving, so by how many will she lead in polling on June 22?

Less than a month ago, on May 22, Donald Trump took lead against Hillary Clinton in General Election 2016 polls. But, that lead lasted for only three days, and plenty of things changed since then. Clinton got her nomination, Sanders is out of race, and she started to increase her lead in national polls once again.

Ten days ago Clinton had +2.0% lead in the polls, and it’s been going up ever since, to +5.6% yesterday. So, will it stop soon, or will Hillary once again go over double digits lead in the polls, that she had at the middle of April?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 22?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-22/.

Now you can use your opinion about this topic at Fairlay market. At the moment, it looks like she will lead next week with +6.0 to 6.9%, but could she go even higher? Or will Donald Trump finally find the way to stop Hillary’s improvement in polls? He did that before, so he could do that once again.

But, people mostly think that Orlando tragedy will go in favor of Hillary, as plenty disapprove Trump’s response to shooting. Anyway, it is always interesting to track how the polls resolve, and don’t forget that you can follow day-to-day polling data at:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html.

Will Marco Rubio change his mind and run for Senate reelection in 2016?

Whether Rubio will change his mind and seek reelection to the Senate is one of the questions of the week. Worried about keeping their Senate majority, a number of Rubio’s colleagues are leaning on him to run. They’ve been joined by a handful of his friends in the House, and a growing chorus of Florida elected officials.

Last week Marco Rubio dismissed questions over whether he would succumb to pressure from Washington and run for reelection in Florida, signaling he still plans to leave the chamber at year's end. "Nothing's changed," Rubio told CNN when asked if he would run for reelection.

Still, recently Rubio faced growing pressure from party leaders for him to reconsider his decision and run for reelection because top Republicans fear their crop of candidates are too weak and underfunded and could cost the party a critical Senate seat in the battle for control in the chamber.

Rubio has said that he's unlikely to run so long as his close friend, Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, remains in the Senate race. Lopez-Cantera has suggested that he's not dropping out. But, top Republicans are hopeful there's time for Rubio to change his mind before the June 24 filing deadline.

Will Marco Rubio run for Senate in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-marco-rubio-run-for-senate-in-2016/.

So, what is your opinion on this topic? What will Rubio do in the following days, and will he run for Senate reelection?

Will Boris Johnson become UK Prime Minister in 2016?

Brexit vote on June 23 will not only decide Britons’ future in or out of the European Union, but also the political future of British Prime Minister David Cameron and his flamboyant rival, Boris Johnson.

Cameron, who is campaigning to remain in the European Union, is in nine days going head to head with the former London mayor, who is leading the campaign for a British exit.

EU Referendum Result:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.

Many say that it is a smart move by Johnson, as Cameron would find it very difficult to remain in office if Britain votes to leave, while some think Cameron will go regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

People think that Johnson will surely be the next UK Prime Minister, but the question is will he become one in 2016? Now you have an open market on this topic at Fairlay, so what is your opinion?

Boris Johnson to become UK Prime Minister in 2016:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-boris-johnson-become-uk-prime-minister-in-2016/.

Men’s 100m and 200m in Rio: Usain Bolt vs. Justin Gatlin – who will prevail and become a hero?

We are less than two months away from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, and thus more of you want to place prediction on the biggest events. But don’t forget that you can also offer suggestions for the smaller ones.

Of course, Men’s 100m race in always amongst the most popular events at it will be once again. And, once again, all eyes will be on Usain Bolt who won gold medals in both London and Beijing. So, can he win another 100m gold this year?

Many think that Justin Gatlin, man who won gold in Athens 2004, is the only one who can stop him, but can Yohan Blake use fight of these two and win the gold after being silver four years ago in London? Eyes of all the world will be on them.

Men's 100m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-100m-winner-in-rio/.

Another interesting event will be men’s 200m race that will be held three days after 100m so some will have momentum with them. But Usain Bolt will surely be favorite on August 17, as he also won gold medals in both London and Beijing.

And though everyone will be talking about Justin Gatlin as the man who can stop him, once again Yohan Blake could use his chances, and improve even more after silver in London four years ago. So, who is your favorite to become a hero?

Men's 200m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-200m-winner-in-rio/.

Anyway, both 100m and 200m will be great races and Jamaica could once again be in control of them. At the same time, Justin Gatlin could be under pressure to win gold medals as his USA again wants to be the country with most of them.

Russia has some chances, but it will be USA vs China for the most gold medals won. USA won 46 to 38 in London, China 51 to 36 in Beijing, and it will be interesting to see who will win most gold medals in Rio. Where does your prediction go?

Country to win most gold medals in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals-in-rio/.