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18021  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 24, 2011, 01:56:51 PM

At this point the Fed is simply waiting to pull the trigger on Quantative Easing round 3, the only bullet left in their arsenal in the fight against recession. When that happens, gold will go crazy.


THIS is your investment thesis?  Depending on what you think the Fed will do? 
18022  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 24, 2011, 01:50:53 PM
sorry guys.  its golds turn.
18023  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 24, 2011, 01:49:26 PM
DZZ ramping.
18024  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 24, 2011, 01:47:53 PM
SLV:  $40 goes down.
18025  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 24, 2011, 02:00:05 AM
Quote
how about capitulation buying from investors like Roubini?  he's an economist afterall.  gotta be right. Undecided

He may have suggested the QE route, but he did call the housing crash and subsequent problems. You can rely on him to understand the problem, just not offer a proper solution. That's beside the point, though. There are all kinds of calls for high prices in gold from various sources that people have grown to distrust. Is that intentional or a bid to maintain legitimacy? Does it matter?

yes, he did get the housing call right but i've always been severely disappointed in his solution for MORE fiscal stimulus.  
Quote
thats a great article.  and this is the real money backing thats supposed to fit into the new digital age?

Why wouldn't it fit?

even in 2011 they can't move gold around the world w/o all the listed problems and concerns in the article.  how are nations supposed to perform balance of payments of gold from debtor to creditor nations on an ongoing basis if we go back to a gold std?  it'd be crazy complicated and expensive.  we need something digital/instantaneous.  did someone say Bitcoin?
18026  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 24, 2011, 12:55:59 AM
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/2-year-treasuries-at-record-low-21.html

so when's this UST selloff supposed to occur?  and just how is inflation supposed to get going when the banks prefer to buy UST's instead of lend to each other?  UST's are acting like a big black hole sucking the life out of the real economy.  they're gonna drag gold down the hole too as everyone scrambles for cash to pay their basic expenses.
18027  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 24, 2011, 12:21:08 AM

It isn't time until the market says it's time. Smiley

its telling me its time.

That has been an indication of capitulation selling by holders of GLD.

that doesn't make sense.  holders of GLD can only sell their shares, not the bullion itself.

How is it that the price per share is up over 10% while the tonnes held in the trust declined by almost 2%?

how about capitulation buying from investors like Roubini?  he's an economist afterall.  gotta be right. Undecided

Finally, here's an interesting and creative solution to the issue of getting all the gold from BoE to Venezuela.

thats a great article.  and this is the real money backing thats supposed to fit into the new digital age?
18028  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 11:40:20 PM
18029  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 10:15:26 PM
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/08/23/shanghai-gold-exchange-lifts-margins-for-gold-forwards/
18030  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 10:02:17 PM

Ok... why?


Because its time:



we're at the top of a trading cycle in silver and today we formed whats called a swing high along with a downturn of several long term indicators shown in the bottom of my picture.  notice how the RSI, MACD, and Money Flow Index have been weakening for almost 4 months.  we hit the top of the overbought trading cycle today and should enter a drawn out downphase that could last months.  SLV in one day has turned down and is just hovering above $40.  it should slice down thru $40 like a knife thru butter.

edit:  sorry, the Money Flow Index got chopped off the bottom of my chart.  you'll have to take my word for it.
18031  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 09:49:38 PM
Shame I don't have any account which I can do put options because I did think of that.

But anyway, I'll be coming back to this thread when gold reaches $2000.

no don't go.  contribute but in a respectful way.  thats all i ask. 
18032  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 09:48:07 PM
you know what?

Hey type-A, deep breaths! Smiley

The greatest insult is to be ignored...

to get to your question.  i think M2 is ramping b/c everyone is cashing out of money mkt funds as they are forced to liquidate bonds from the debt downgrade and move USD's into regular bank accts.  this is why you're seeing Bank of NY Mellon charging for holding deposits.  because they can.  so its misleading to say the Fed is pumping new money into the markets.

if you read my earlier posts in this thread, yes the USD can skyrocket from here if enough debt liquidation is forced thru defaults or margin calls raising the demand for cash to pay off these bad debts.  you can look at this 2 ways; an overall decrease in the number of virtual plus real USD's floating around or as a scramble to grab the real USD's to pay off the bad virtual USD debts.  either way the USD rises.

the $DXY is at the bottom of its consolidation channel.  from here we should get a huge ramp.  talk about a panic from that happening...

Great analysis. I don't think I can add anything to it.

What comes after the dollar hits a boost? It isn't worth it to have cash sitting around without a return. If there is a decent rate, what's being invested in to generate that return?

the return will be waiting to buy assets at the bottom of the Depression for pennies on the dollar.  the wealth transfer at the end of the Depression of the 1930's was historic. 
18033  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 08:54:42 PM


Gold could "correct" in the short term....

I hope so! I've been waiting for a downturn so I can buy.

Looks like it's going back to $1800 for now could go further but be warned that gold is sensitive to small irrelevant things like Bernanke announcing QE3 even though the federal reserve will create money regardless and the ponzi scheme wont end until it comes crashing down.

What appears to happen in markets like gold:

1. Genuine demand from investors and producers pushes price up.
2. Silly speculators see the price doing up and they start buying.
3. Price goes up too high. Speculative bubble.
4. Silly speculators now think the market is "overbought" (Thanks to themselves no doubt) and so they sell. Or they profit-take at certain points.
5. Price comes down.
6. Certain people get annoyed at this. Certain speculators lose out and others win. Investors get annoyed because the price isn't being stabilised by smart short to medium term speculation.

I think technical analysis is only good int he short term. Using it for medium or longer terms is not any good. Technical analysis says something is overbought when it's simply just increasing demand.

I was thinking about selling today but I knew it was too risky to make short term bets. I definitely just want to hold on to gold as central banks kill fiat and more and more people see the benefit to gold.

I agree if you want to short gold in the short term, if you are prepared to do more regular trades but shorting gold for the long term is stupid in my opinion.

Once again...

$40 for SLV will not hold.

Do you disagree with the quantity theory of money? Does the trillions being poured into the money supply of dollars not matter? Dollars are a better investment than gold which has a stable supply? The US debt ponzi scheme, completely irrelevant? Forced low interest rates, really doesn't matter? Buy more dollars with borrowed gold? Dollars are really great?


you know what?  i'm getting sick and tired of you calling contrary opinions (or me) to yours "silly" and "stupid".  how many DAYS did i have to educate your lame stupid ass in the Bitrebel thread about the Fed balance sheet about a month ago?

to get to your question.  i think M2 is ramping b/c everyone is cashing out of money mkt funds as they are forced to liquidate bonds from the debt downgrade and move USD's into regular bank accts.  this is why you're seeing Bank of NY Mellon charging for holding deposits.  because they can.  so its misleading to say the Fed is pumping new money into the markets.

if you read my earlier posts in this thread, yes the USD can skyrocket from here if enough debt liquidation is forced thru defaults or margin calls raising the demand for cash to pay off these bad debts.  you can look at this 2 ways; an overall decrease in the number of virtual plus real USD's floating around or as a scramble to grab the real USD's to pay off the bad virtual USD debts.  either way the USD rises.

the $DXY is at the bottom of its consolidation channel.  from here we should get a huge ramp.  talk about a panic from that happening...
18034  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 08:22:02 PM
looks like i have lotsa company in DZZ.  the volume today is now MORE than double its highest volume ever on 8/9/11.  which side of the boat do you want to be on?

I love this side of the boat. This is so beautiful. Already +70 points on XAUUSD... with big leverage.

there.  fixed that for ya.

thanks, buddy :-)

Lets go fishing together soon. EDIT: with golden rods and reels and hooks :-)


EIGHT boxes of salmon, halibut, and cod.  one of the most beautiful places on Earth.  if you all were here i'd give you each a vacuum pack. Smiley
18035  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 08:11:07 PM
what you're witnessing is US dollar hegemony in play.  the power to turn on and OFF the spigot when the Fed wants.  the only way to play this is thinking like a criminal and picking out extremes in sentiment as well as chart parabolas.  there would be no greater satisfaction to Ben and the bankers then to smash gold to smithereens right here, right now.  and they have the power to do it.

i think the top is in.  the ferociousness of todays selloff on HIGH volume, not only on the futures and GLD but especially on the double inverse short DZZ is screaming "LOOK OUT". 

at this point i don't think silver clears the April high.  until it does, my opinion won't change.
18036  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 08:02:30 PM
looks like i have lotsa company in DZZ.  the volume today is now MORE than double its highest volume ever on 8/9/11.  which side of the boat do you want to be on?

I love this side of the boat. This is so beautiful. Already +70 points on XAUUSD... with big leverage.

there.  fixed that for ya.
18037  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 07:52:58 PM
looks like i have lotsa company in DZZ.  the volume today is now MORE than double its highest volume ever on 8/9/11.  which side of the boat do you want to be on?
18038  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 07:46:24 PM
What are you saying, they have his 200 ton ready to ship?

sure, why not?

i'm really saying none of that shit matters.  and since when has Chavez been a good market timer? Wink
18039  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 07:42:09 PM
Chavez wants his gold. The price needs to be driven down before buying up physical, to avoid sending price over $2000.  Cool

Noise.
18040  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: August 23, 2011, 07:31:48 PM
i'm gonna give all you guys a huge tip here that i just spotted.  just for my fellow bitcoiners:

look at the VOLUME on DZZ, the double inverse short of gold today.  ENORMOUS.  someone knows something the fundamentals can't possibly fathom.

edit:  highest volume EVER by a factor of 2.
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