 savings rate is going back up again. no one wants to spend. |
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 this is ugly. this is the "speed" at which money circulates in the US economy. miserable. |
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your lack of response means you are indeed a Funny Fool, Foo. as i said before you're a coward and a weenie with no convictions behind what you say.
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its my feeling that we're going to do a Japan. we're going to push on a string for the foreseeable future not getting anywhere with 0% interest rates which effectively kills all markets and savers/producers. all productive capital gets siphoned off to the elites who are well connected to their bought off politicians who keep passing bills in their favor. banks will be allowed to the extent possible to mark to model their rotting assets dangling a permanent cloud over our economy. our stock mkt will erode just like the Nikkei as long standing deflation sets in. not much will do well. perhaps bitcoin can save us.
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Imminent re-inflation efforts, whether publicized or surreptitious, will continue propping up equities at the expense of the dollar.
would you care to bet 100 BTC or $1000 that the Dow will be lower one year from now than it is today? edit: to be held in escrow of course. |
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We've discussed my stance elsewhere, notably that there will be overall deflation in certain asset classes and inflation in others. I apply what is relevant based on underlying aspects, especially capital flows. There is no one-size-fits-all definition. I agree that we may not be on the same page. Best of luck with your trading - be nimble. Maybe deflation near term and inflation after 1 or 2 yrs? Maybe were both predicting same scenarios but different times?
All economies and societies are dynamic. Inflation and deflation can occur concurrently across disparate asset classes and at various scales. We just tend to limit our perspectives by thinking in terms of static snapshots and linear projections. you've said a coupla times that foreigners are much less dependent on the USD. explain this: http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-swap-lines-european-banks-2011-6also explain why most of the TARP funds back in 2008 were extended to foreign banks, esp European to bailout their individual overleveraged banks. i'll tell you why. the USD is and remains the reserve currency of the world upon which other foreign central banks leverage their own currencies. its like a reverse pyramid with the USD at the bottom and extending outward to foreign currencies. 60% of loans worldwide are denominated in USD's. when the shit hits the fan all these foreign banks need USD swap lines to cover the imploding assets debt. we are now entering phase 2 of the crisis and you're going to see demand for USD increase significantly from here as Europe starts to implode. edit: did June's swap lines have anything to do with stocks starting their roll in May? i think so. |
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Please help me, my Fedspeak is rusty. Did the Fed just announce it will continue buying treasuries in the third paragraph or admit defeat (continue 0% but otherwise let the market find its own way)? The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate. no new QE (UST buys) was announced. just 0% interest rates until mid 2013. |
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i need to clarify. yes at transition pts btwn cycles at peaks and troughs, deflation and inflation can be seen across diff asset classes but when the swings get in gear to either the upside or downside, inverse correlations to the USD and an all one market effect gets well established. as a believer in boom bust cycles i see this in most recent past cycles.
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We've discussed my stance elsewhere, notably that there will be overall deflation in certain asset classes and inflation in others. I apply what is relevant based on underlying aspects, especially capital flows. There is no one-size-fits-all definition. I agree that we may not be on the same page. Best of luck with your trading - be nimble. Maybe deflation near term and inflation after 1 or 2 yrs? Maybe were both predicting same scenarios but different times?
All economies and societies are dynamic. Inflation and deflation can occur concurrently across disparate asset classes and at various scales. We just tend to limit our perspectives by thinking in terms of static snapshots and linear projections. its pretty clear the last 2 cycles down from 10/07 to 3/09 and up from 3/09 to now EVERYTHING moved inversely to the USD. and if you pull out further and look from 1913 to now with the 98% or so loss in value of the USD EVERYTHING else has moved up in price? |
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NO. what we're looking at is Phase 2 of the same story which will be worse and much more brutal to everything including gold.
The influence the US wields in the global arena has diminished. It has become much more difficult to manipulate circumstances for its own benefit. Precious metals downside is limited. Imminent re-inflation efforts, whether publicized or surreptitious, will continue propping up equities at the expense of the dollar. its clear you're an inflationist and i a deflationist. this is a very common debate and distinction. i think we're at a fundamental turning point in history. you linearly extrapolate from the past. thats ok. we'll see. |
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http://bitcoinme.com/index.php/bitcon-2011/Some of the media outlets who have said they will be here include: CNN International Al Jazeera English Blomberg Television Wall Street Journal The New York Observer BusinessWeek Wired Magazine SmarterMoney NPR Forbes Fortune CNN / Money The Atlantic Radio Australia Freedomain Radio I've been thinking about this event too, as there are a fair few media outlets that will surely have a very large reader base, Bitcoin will have ALOT of coverage during/after this event. I would guess that leading up to the event the price will increase anyway, as speculation from miners about the media exposure will surely get everyone thinking about a price rise. I think it's possible we could see the price go up to $12, maybe higher if some speculators invest enough before the event - Then depending on how well the event goes and how much media exposure it actually gets we could have rally upto $20 or more, but i'm no expert with figures like this so i'll see what some more experienced people think  Before the event i should have more than doubled my mining capacity, so i'm hoping that the coverage is big enough for us to see a big influx of investers. easily |
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Ahh, we are talking about very different scenarios.
Your are looking at a replay of 2008 when everyone had to sell whatever they had to raise cash, which caused the prices of both metals and papers to fall. I'm looking at a day when someone stands for delivery of their silver futures contract at COMEX and gets told that they can't deliver the physical metal so they have to take the cash value.
NO. what we're looking at is Phase 2 of the same story which will be worse and much more brutal to everything including gold. |
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oh, and i forgot, Bernanke just told you the economy will be in the tank for the next 2 yrs by being forced to keep interest rates at 0% until mid 2013. and BTW what do you think the drop in the 10yr yield will do to banks net interest margin? KILLS IT.
now they can't make money making loans even if they wanted to which they aren't. and whats an economy w/o any debt based money? DEAD.
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the 10 yr UST is down to where we were in 12/08. it screams deflation. who you gonna believe?
Yes, except you forget in 2008 the credit markets were frozen and people were not sure if the banks had the capital (paper) to cover their losses and deposits. This time around we KNOW they have the capital and so do many corporations that made 25%+ profits this past few years and that these huge mountains of money are sitting there untouched. The second that money is released into the economy (my prediction is it will chase commodities) inflation is going to ram us hardcore. We already got a taste of it early this year when there were "signs of a recovery" these companies started just barely opening the tap and inflation was on everyones radar ( a reason gold is at the price its at imo). they don't have the capital to cover all the bad debt on their books. billions of bad residential and now commercial RE sit marked to model, ie, fictitious valuations. why do u think FASB was forced by threat of Congress to relax the rules? if they were forced to mark to market you'd hear a detonation the likes of a nuclear bomb. look at the charts of the financials. it tells the whole story. BAC is going to be the next Lehman. their exposure to European sovereign debt is significant altho not as large the the French or German banks. all that cash in excess reserves and in corps balance sheet is stockpiling for the next crisis. the banks refuse to lend b/c the consumer is in terrible shape and a huge risk. no wage inflation here boys and thus consumption is gonna slump big time. only a few large corps have signif cash stores like Apple but this is far from the typical case. have you looked at the small biz survey from NFIB? heres a quote from the President: "Given the current political climate, the protracted debate over how to handle the nation’s debt and spending, and the now this latest development of the debt downgrade, expectations for growth are low and uncertainty is great," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. "At the two year anniversary of the expansion, the Index is only 3.4 points higher than it was in July 2009. And considering the confidence-draining performance of policy makers, there is little hope that Washington will stop hemorrhaging money and put spending back on a sustainable course. Perhaps we might begin referring to the 'Small-Business Pessimism Index' from now on." http://www.scribd.com/doc/61924141/Small-Business-Optimism-August-2011small biz is what drives employment and innovation in this country. its in the TANK. the large corps with cash piles are few and far btwn such as Apple. why do they refuse to invest? b/c they're bracing for the storm. its here right now. this next downturn will sweep all inflation assets under the rug for the next decade. |
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I still suspect that a day will come when all the holders of paper gold and paper silver will wake up and panic. The dwindling COMEX inventories seem to confirm that it is inevitable. On that day, all hell will break loose.
But I don't know if that day will come soon, or even really ever. People that underestimate the market's ability to outlast them get burned, even when they are right.
don't forget these papers were funded with debt based USD's. if the USD skyrockets they'll be forced to liquidate back to those same USD's which will plunge the gold/silver price. I hear this version a lot, and I don't really believe it. If COMEX needs to switch to paper settlement, people will be confronted with a very explicit reminder that gold and silver are not the same as pieces of paper with GLD and SLV written on them. I would expect the physical market to diverge wildly from the paper market at that point. In fact, if this scenario plays out, it will be the severing of the link between the two markets that sets it all off. most of the ppl IMO that own GLD or SLV are just investors who want to ride the wave. they want a fast exit when it pops. if the stock, commodity market declines force a risk off margin call which drives the USD up, the gold price will drop and the last thing those GLD, SLV investors will want is to switch into physical bullion. they'll want their USD's back ASAP. as i suspect as well, GS and JPM have probably bought into these vehicles as well driving the parabolic move only to sell out quickly at the top along with establishing short positions. |
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where is that weenie BTCEconomist anyway?
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I hope everyone's coined up
You still think there's going to be a rally today, don't you? uh yes. |
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i'm going to give you the benefit of assuming you're offline. but when you come back to this thread don't you dare make another post before addressing my bet. in fact, i raise you to 200 BTC or $2000.
if you fail to respond you're a weenie and a coward who happens to be a paid shill. your handlers are gonna be disappointed in you and you could get fired.
edit: Asshole.
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i'm waiting chump FunnyFool.
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the OP is just a fool.
Cypherdoc, UMADBRO? Bitcoin is a fun experiment, it sounds like you bought coins at $15+ and lost some capital. Here's why you're mad and in denial Doc: Bitcoin doesn't do anything for you, doesn't generate any dividends, doesn't split and increase in value over a 10-year period, doesn't pay bonuses, can't really be used to buy anything useful in a local (or internet) market, is too volatile to be taken seriously, isn't inherently secure, and could be shut down easily by a sideways fart from the CIA. The only way it increases in value is if the demand from speculators exceeds the demand from mining. This can only result in a super-bubble with a super collapse. Keep bitcoin a fun experiment, it's not a place for real money   You'll make more money in the long run holding 10-year U.S. treasuries than holding bitcoins. UMADBRO!!!! ========================= This chart a little better at mirroring bitcoins chart.  CowTipper, that's a great chart! I was going more for a general approach to bubbles with my basic chart. Your chart is really better, but it's deceptive in that people could interpret the current position of bitcoin falsely (lots of people would argue that we're returning to the mean and that value will go up, when in fact it's going to decay and drop over time - whether the price decay is slow and controlled or rapid, I'm not sure). naw Fool. i am hugely in the green having started my buying at $1.60. haha. UMADBRO! i'll tell you what. i'll bet you 100 BTC or $1000 that the BTC price in USD terms is higher one year from now than it is today money to be held in escrow. you being such a bad dude, c'mon bro put your money where your mouth is chump! LOL! |
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