the mini gold futures contract /YG volume is just enormous and we still have a reverse hammer.  caution.

another argument gold bulls like to make is this supposed push for a one world currency in which gold will play a central role and the USD is extinguished.

i would submit to you whats happening to the Euro experiment is evidence that this concept cannot work.  its impossible to have diverse separate sovereign entities with a unified currency.  the laggards like Greece just doom the project.

in this light how's a one world currency going to work?

if our fiat money system was based primarily on the printing of money as you say you would be right.  but in fact the amount of money printed since 2008 has only been on the order of 1.6T give or take and mostly is retained on the balance of the Feds balance sheet as excess reserves.

as most of us here realize, USD's mostly exist as debt or virtual money so to speak.  this is a key differnence btwn what happened in Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe.  both had no or insignificant debt markets with which to issue debt backed money.  this is why when they printed money they went into hyperinflation b/c once printed they can't be removed from circulation.  

contrast this with what we've done with the USD.  the amt of leverage in the world dwarfs the actual currency by orders of magnitude.  private debt is around 55T.  the derivatives mkt is a quadrillion.  how many trillion do we owe in entitlements being paid with debt.  whats happening now is widespread defaults on this same debt which is CONTRACTING the money supply (amt of debt) hence deflation.  there won't be enough leverage to sustain prices at these levels even gold and silver.  its all about the USD as you said.  but instead of managing it down, i think they are trying to manage it back up.

UST's is betraying your arguments as well having rallied since the downgrade.  the setup is here.

Fidelity has no more shares of SLV to short.

the OP is just a fool.

gold has been trying to convince us that it goes up whether the stock mkt goes up OR down.  i don't believe it.

if my theory about the banks cranking up SLV and GLD to create a bubble with leverage, a major reversal will cause a selling panic of epic proportions.  i can't tell u how difficult its been liquidating my bullion at the local coin dealer.  they rape you when they can.

the volume on the gold futures /YG is already higher today than anytime since June 2010.  we've also formed a candle wick today.  watch out.

edit:  inverted hammer

another point. 

there is such a thing as sector rotation.  perhaps the sellers/shorts now are rotating into the PM's with their profits made from selling/shorting the major indices.

when you look at a daily chart typically, its when the primary trend changes from up to down.

i could be.  i used to rely more on fundamentals but now look at what the charts are doing to tell me whats really going on underneath the surface.  read my thread i just put up:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35493.0

my bet is gold/silver begin the long decent after FOMC.

my ZSL is up 5.91% 

i freely admit i might be wrong and only a fool tries to pick a top.  i guess i'm a fool and like to pick corners.  only b/c those are the places to make maximum profit.  i got the Dow turn perfectly and got most of this selloff and am waiting to reshort after a several day bounce which probably begins today.

the straight down drop in the indices says to me the PPT has stepped back b/c they have an objective; get the USD back up and smash PM's.  tinfoil i know.

i guess i'm one of the Chicken Little Deflationists.

just b/c central banks have been buying gold doesn't mean they're right.  in fact they were sellers during the entire 2000's beginning with Gordon Brown and the BofE in 2000.

as long as the USD stays in its consolidation pattern and doesn't breakdown i don't see gold going much higher.  if the USD starts to ramp like i think it will, gold should go down.

i've been telling ppl for quite some time now that i've been selling my bullion for btc for several months. its true, i've liquidated lots of the stuff since April that i first bought in 2005-2007.  i've been an ardent suporter of btc for the longest time.  i've also been warning ppl about divergences in the PM market i've been exploiting via shorts such as the divergence in silver, miners, and the gold price.  i understand what gold is all about and i love the stuff but when btc came along my allegiance switched.

the basis of my thinking has been and always will be that its all about the USD.  the Fed controls the issuance of the USD and its its only franchise.  i don't think they want to relinquish that control of the worlds reserve currency.  the USD is also how most billionaires wealth is stored in this country.  most of the debt in the world is denominated in USD (60%).  there was a great article someone posted about how the bankers have been complaining to Ben that they're being hurt by the weak USD.  Duh.

let me list the warnings i see:

1. silver has broken down badly from $50. it continues to this am.
2. silver stocks are in an obvious decline and got hit yesterday hard.
3. gold stocks are no better.  they usually lead.
4. we're at 11 yrs of the bull.  some ppl say theres an extended 9 yr cycle going on.
5. asset classes don't all break down simultaneously.  it took gold and miners several months to break down after the Dow in 2007 so i don't expect them to have followed the Dow down since May 2011.
6. gold is trying to or has, depending on how you look at it, entered a parabola.  do you really want to buy a parabola now if we're entering a major deflationary phase when cash is King?
7. its debatable how widespread the evangelism about gold has spread but everywhere i turn, on street corner stores, tv ads, and my secretary everyone's buying gold.

ok, now for the tinfoil hat stuff.  stop right here if you want to stick with the technical trading stuff above.  over many years of trading i've learned to think like a criminal and this is what i see happening.

1. GS and JPM have huge short positions in the metals.  do you think they will let them double, triple from here even if they represent hedges?  i think thats the last thing they want to see.
2. gold has acted very strange the last coupla weeks to me ramping in the face of a severe selloff in the Dow and the clear threat of deflation.
3. altho GS & JPM probably never saw the bull in PM's they aren't stupid and know how to handle them.  so how do you handle a losing situation?  Buy into it. Profit as well.  create a huge parabola. Build up an even greater short position. Get Ben to squelch liquidity. Then sell it off at the top when everyone's in and short the crap out of it. this is what happened in silver.
4. why is btc rallying all of a sudden?  could it be that its exerting itself in the economic scene based on the virtues of what we all know?  it also could be that Wall St is rotating out of stocks and soon pm's into btc.
5. when would the trap go off?  i think todays FOMC meeting with lack of any further QE would be the perfect timing for a gold selloff.

so guys, just give me a few hours to see if my theory proves correct.  if it doesn't work by all means buy the parabola.  personally i'm going to give it a few days from today to let it work but you can all call me a tinfoiler if gold doesn't start going down after the announcement.

Disclosure:  i do have a huge short position in bullion in place.

 i've been warning everyone to not sell.  you've been had...

did anybody just notice the bitcoin ramp?  what if USD's start rotating out of gold and into BTC?  we are on a Bitcoin forum after all.

never buy parabolic blowoffs.  buy when there's blood in the streets.  now is not the time for gold.  when deflation really kicks in (and there's no sign of the PPT) you could wake up and gold could be down hundreds of dollars and headed back down to $500 w/o a chance to get out.  just look at the Dow.

edit:  for clues look at silver.  and the USD has not broken down out of the channel yet.

i think i may need to start a new thread:  Whose wrong?  Gold or BTC?