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look at AEM a former gold stock darling. absolute carnage. NEM, ABX, and GG getting smacked as well. none of the juniors are performing either. this is a repeat of 2008 when they got destroyed.
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i actually think that the Fed is going to try and get PM's to crack to the downside. there was that article i saw a coupla days ago about how the bankers were complaining to Berspankme about the fall in the dollar. if they've convinced him to sacrifice the stock market to save the dollar and bonds we could be entering a huge deflationary wave. this has been my theory about whats going to happen all along which is why i've been selling PM's and sold a bunch more today. down to my last few ounces. God i hope this doesn't affect BTC as i've shifted all my PM gains into BTC.
my shorts on silver and silver stocks paid big today as well.
edit: if i'm right this will absolutely kill the inflationists. i think i am...
I'm your trading opponent and I still have lots of silver long position  Compare the equivalent value of 1 ounce gold in 80's and today, they still have 4X uppside potential the thing you should note is that the silver stocks and gold stocks are not confirming the bullion. i know, i've heard all the excuses about why but i'm not buying them. also that silver is below its April highs and not confirming gold. and then remember what happened in 2008. |
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i actually think that the Fed is going to try and get PM's to crack to the downside. there was that article i saw a coupla days ago about how the bankers were complaining to Berspankme about the fall in the dollar. if they've convinced him to sacrifice the stock market to save the dollar and bonds we could be entering a huge deflationary wave. this has been my theory about whats going to happen all along which is why i've been selling PM's and sold a bunch more today. down to my last few ounces. God i hope this doesn't affect BTC as i've shifted all my PM gains into BTC.
my shorts on silver and silver stocks paid big today as well.
edit: if i'm right this will absolutely kill the inflationists. i think i am...
I'm your trading opponent and I still have lots of silver long position Compare the equivalent value of 1 ounce gold in 80's and today, they still have 4X uppside potential LOL! you're right; this will be interesting indeed!  |
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i actually think that the Fed is going to try and get PM's to crack to the downside. there was that article i saw a coupla days ago about how the bankers were complaining to Berspankme about the fall in the dollar. if they've convinced him to sacrifice the stock market to save the dollar and bonds we could be entering a huge deflationary wave. this has been my theory about whats going to happen all along which is why i've been selling PM's and sold a bunch more today. down to my last few ounces. God i hope this doesn't affect BTC as i've shifted all my PM gains into BTC.
my shorts on silver and silver stocks paid big today as well.
edit: if i'm right this will absolutely kill the inflationists. i think i am...
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Actually I'm waiting any kind of rebounce to buy several put option tomorrow  trading declining mkts is a b*tch. if we get a bounce, be careful about shorting too soon as we could get a week long bounce or so. long term we're all dead though... I'm thinking we'll have a bounce too. I see it happening between 1175 and today's close at 1200. However, I think it fizzles out around 1260 or the 200dma, which is currently 1286. Trading below the 200dma seems like a bear market to me but I'm waiting to see how the market reacts to the bounce. The market is oversold short term and is due for a healthy bounce. That being said, the last support before bigger losses is around the 1175-1180 area. If we break that support, look out below. it looks like we have a Dow Theory violation. we're in big trouble. i clearly remember trying to trade the 2008 crash. it was challenging b/c several days like today would be interspersed with a huge ramp on some trivial announcement which would get me into a margin call. this top i've been all over so far and i hope i can trade it better. the key is to not get those margin calls by not leveraging up. its tempting when the gains to be had are so great to the downside. i had an absolutely huge day today. |
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Long term wise, I'm positive, QE3,4,5 is on the way, as long as Bernanke hold the joystick of his helicopter firmly(If he is as soft as Obama, there might be some severe problem)
i'm not so sure he has that discretion anymore. it would be very dangerous to assume so b/c if he doesn't, stocks could crash big time. |
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Actually I'm waiting any kind of rebounce to buy several put option tomorrow trading declining mkts is a b*tch. if we get a bounce, be careful about shorting too soon as we could get a week long bounce or so. long term we're all dead though... |
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the stock rout today says the debt does matter.
You want to bet 5 bitcoin that next week the stock market is higher than todays lows? EDIT: Im not a short term trader so you have high chances of success... whats the basis of this bet? i've been covering shorts like mad today taking profits b/c i too think we'll get a short term bounce. what are you trying to prove? some sort of thesis involved here? i tell you what. i'll bet you the stock mkt is lower in October than it is today. how's that? |
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the stock rout today says the debt does matter.
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I'm not saying that you have to be a technical/scientific/financial genius. How may people know math and are literate now compared to 100 years ago? How may people are working comparatively easier jobs now as retail clerks, using their math and reading skills, than 100 years ago, when most manufacturing jobs only required that you follow the same basic repetitive steps? Sure, we'll always have some people that either refuse to, or can't, learn or grasp anything complex, and we'll likely always need them to do things like janitorial, security, or even retail/fast food work, but you'd have to at least agree that most people out there can at least take a few college level classes to get SOME slightly advanced skills? Even high school level education is useful for things like data entry, transcribing/proofreading, basic accounting, etc (things machines can't yet do). Those jobs that require eyes, brains, and someone on location will likely never go away.
Currently, many unemployeed are those young people just graduated from colleges. I think "continous learning" even worsen the picture: Those who are in the job expand their automation technology to a higher and higher level through continous learning. Since they are learning all the time during their whole career, this just means no new employee can catch up with their speed and the knowledge gap between them will be larger and larger the main problem i see with your arguments is that i believe inflation contributes not only to technology advances but also population growth. low interest rates and easy loans grossly distort economics and create bubbles. its well known that population growth increases in good times and i can argue this is a distortion as well. we've now hit the debt ceiling IMO. we can't take on more growth and there needs to be a vetting of the bad loans. this will cause the system to go into reverse and then what happens to the population if this is prolonged enough? it has to go down. its a race btwn tech developments that can sustain the population vs. the ensuing downturn thats just now beginning. |
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you da MAN Roger!!!
i happen to agree and i've staked my money on it!!!!
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I'd say that bitcoin can be far more anonymous than gold. You don't really have that much experience with using cash or gold do you? i do. its less anon than you think. i've been selling my gold and silver and the coin shop issues a 1099 to me when i do. they also took down my drivers license, address, and a fingerprint. when i bought it i don't remember having to do that tho. |
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whoa, downloaded your binary. very cool. you're right; now i'm worried its gonna run some kinda wallet stealer what do i do at this point? just send some coin to one of my generated pub keys and save the private key? |
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UPDATE:
New Dial Options: You can choose to have either the "HOROLOTECH" logo on the dial or you can elect to have the dial say "BITCOIN CHRONOGRAPH". Either way, "BTC" will still be engraved on the rotor which is viewable through the exhibition back.
is it too late for mine? |
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Now that all the amateurs and kids have coughed up their coins to the Wall St pros, consider this: Wall St loves nothing more than a Bubble Bull Market that gets every last Tom, Dick, & Harry to climb on board a blow off top. This is EXACTLY what i think has happened.
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some problems
...
when i run the program it seems to work okay until i push generate wallet
It's throwing a fit over not having a resource file compiled in. I am looking up what else needs to be on the command line for that to happen. EDIT: I have pushed a new commit to remove the dependency on the resource file. The resource file only had one text string I just moved into the code instead. The csc.exe compiler may not be able to handle resource files without installing other tools. Update source and try again. casascius: don't take me wrong. i've read your previous threads and puzzles and i think you're an awesome coder who's doing great things for the community. its just that non tech GUI users like me can't utilize complicated command line scripts like you're writing. its really too bad b/c i love the outcomes of what you're doing. |
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By observing timing and size of network traffic bursts, one may deduce who is the sender of a bitcoin transaction, even if the network connection is encrypted. And by default, the connection is not encrypted.
This is why it would make no sense to just encrypt bitcoin traffic as a separate overlay network. Making use of an existing onion net such as I2P/Tor allows hiding the bitcoin traffic between other traffic. Still not 100% fool proof, as you could always do some kind of statistic analysis, but it moves it a lot more toward the tinfoil hat domain. Anyway, the most effective way to trace people is indeed to have inside info at the exchanges. At the point where bitcoins are exchanged for bank money it's easy to ID who is behind it. From there, the network can be followed. This will become infeasible when there are people that are only paid in bitcoin and spend bitcoin and never trade, but my gut feeling is that those are really rare at this moment. i often buy large amts of btc one on one with another bitcoiner here on the forum. after he sends to me i go and deposit USD in his bank acct. what if MyBitcoin has numerous P2P contacts like me and slowly liquidates his stolen btc. how do you detect that esp. if he creates several wallets and routes through each of them prior? |
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Use of dead drops, transaction delaying, mixing services and other means help increase anonymity, but are too difficult / time consuming for most people to want to use.
i know of no one more motivated than MyBitcoin. what is a dead drop? |
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if it wasn't, why hasn't anyone identified the stealer of the bitcoins of Allinvain, MyBitcoin and various other hacks?
When the coins at mybitcoin are exchanged for dollars or euros, the identity of whoever converted those coins will be known to the exchange. Until that time, the coins from mybitcoin are exactly where they have always been. There is simply no way (at the moment) for their rightful owners to access them. how do you know this? do you have access to the public addresses at which the coins are stored? if so, please provide. |
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Pseudo-anonymous ...
... bitcoin's biggest deficiency as money, imo.
What? that it's too anonymous or to little anonymous? Seems that this is a good compromise between fully transparent and fully anonymous. It's traceable but only if you're prepared to do a shitload of work. Which means that people won't bother for anything but very serious cases. i'd consider MyBitcoin to be a very serious case. so lets see if anyone in the near future can identify the thief. i highly doubt it. this will be an excellent real world test case. |
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