we'll see who goes bankrupt... |
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glad i just found this thread.
i was blogging the sites Calculated Risk & the Implode O Meter websites back in 2007 and thru the financial crisis to present. these were arguably 2 of the most prescient, balanced, and economically savvy financial blogs on the Internet at the time.
leading up to the housing and stock market plunge there was a blogger named Sebastian and a coupla of his colleagues that were perpetual bulls on stocks and the economy. this was in spite of irrefutable evidence to the contrary. all the way down to the bottom. he never denied direct accusations to his being a hired gun and i don't know if he is still hanging out on those sites but he and others are why i am so sensitive to what i perceive as blogging trolls here on this site.
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except for this: in a real bet of this kind, both parties are adequately secure in their beliefs that the idea of losing isn't worth considering. It's not about being secure in whether you'll win or not. It's the fact that even if you DO win, you can STILL LOSE. See my example. and where does your 100 BTC come from? my original bet was 50.  Cypherdoc. Who I quoted. Not you. Not that the amount of BTC's is relevant anyway. whether the bears own btc or not given the way this bet is constructed is irrelevant. since none of us really knows which way the relative price of btc to USD is going to go, whichever currency you bet with is irrelevant. as i said above, given we're betting on market price, all relevant information about btc to USD is already priced into the market and its reasonable to expect what we know today that the price one year from now will be exactly the same. something special (unknown info) in the market would have to happen for it to appreciate 6/14 x 100 to $20 and that places the odds in favor of the bear. |
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i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.
Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way. They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow. If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet. If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year. You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager. no its not. the price could be $19.99 in one year. actually they win if its $20. i said "exceed". Yeah there's a point where they win, as long as the price stays between whatever they buy at and $20. But the odds are still heavily in your favor. i disagree. the odds are in the bears favor b/c given all the info we have today based on price action, the price one year from now should be exactly what it is now, in the 14's. in order for Jamie and i to win our bets, the price has to appreciate over 6/14x100 percent for us to win. this is irrespective of whether he owns btc now or not. |
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i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.
Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way. They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow. If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet. If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year. You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager. no its not. the price could be $19.99 in one year. actually they win if its $20. i said "exceed". |
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no i was referring to GoldMoney. yes it hasn't "failed" in the traditional concept but its supposed economy is dead in the water as far as i'm concerned.
you still haven't answered the question about a centralized vulnerability of gold storage.
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i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year.
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If you liquidated your position in Bitcoin, you might as well liquidate your presence on this forum and move on with your life.
+1000 LOL! |
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They're undoubtedly (probably) secure passwords, but they seem hard to remember. I mentioned this in another thread, but another option aside from including uppercase, lowercase, numbers and symbols is to create a long password with just plain English words, which are much easier to remember. Check out http://www.diceware.com for example. Long passwords result in exponential growth in complexity, rather than just polynomial growth by including more symbols. And easier to remember. QWERTY12345 when you can remember a formula of "QWERTY12345x3" knowing the password is QWERTY12345QWERTY12345QWERTY12345 I like this theory. Stoners do too. if you look thru that list of mtgox passwords that got hacked its amazing how many derivations of that exact password there actually was. |
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Please call me Mr. Cypherdoc.
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you already have a representative failure of this concept; its called GoldMoney by James Turk.
i foresee a Bitcoin backed USD system in the long term.
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i can't but help "feel" their pain  |
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CALL THEM!
Tibanne Co., Ltd,
〒168-0082
Tōkyō-to, Suginami-ku, Kugayama 5-24-30
Telephone: +81 3-4550-1529
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you know all the beggars will just ask for more!
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here, call him:
Tibanne Co., Ltd,
〒168-0082
Tōkyō-to, Suginami-ku, Kugayama 5-24-30
Telephone: +81 3-4550-1529
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I have checked my email, checked the ticket, emailed them, no response since my last post.
I have given them my logon
my dowalla account
what i have in my account,
last sales and buys.
This is getting old. They have my coins in their exchange.
c-rock
have u tried the IRC? he hangs out there sometimes. |
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I know that many merchants who accept BTC today instantly convert them back to fiat again, so one could say it is not really worth the hassle but you have to keep in mind that we're bootstrapping a decentralized global currency here - that's not an easy task!
i don't see it that way. i think you're providing a great service to btc by helping them circulate! this only helps the btc economy by providing reinforcing feedback. |
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For fuck's sake - it's been more than three weeks and the server is still down. That's what I get for supporting someone in bitcoin business.
Stay away from Mt.gox and Kalyhost. They are scammers and incompetent beyond belief!
i don't get it. i moved USD into mtgox on 7/1 and did a bunch of successful trades thru to 7/4. whats wrong with the server? |
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You all had some education at some point. Did you skip out on critical thinking class? You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?
They are dreaming to get rich  everytime i look at your name i see "groinkoin".  must be my twisted nature. anyways its doesn't hurt to dream! |
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