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you guys are also forgetting one dynamic in Satoshi's brilliant scheme in theorizing the one owner owns all btc.
the protocol is slowly bleeding out btc at a steady rate. so even if someone were to gain control of all btc at this point in time, hows he gonna buy up all the remaining btc yet to be introduced? first of all he'd drive the price UP accumulating all btc now. secondly, everyone would notice this and the next round of btc mined would bring in speculators bidding the price up even further.
a great example of this is the US Treasury market. everyone know the Fed will be in the market buying up UST's in an attempt to keep interest rates capped. so what do all the Primary Dealers do? they front run the Fed by buying up every UST in sight and then flipping them to the Fed at an even HIGHER price. great work if you can get it. this is the great paradox of the the Feds printing campaign that has so many market players confused. the UST bears just can't believe interest rates haven't spiked yet given all the money printing and they keep getting dragged off the trading floors bleeding as interest rates have continued down and stayed down over the years. you see the same thing happening with Japanese bonds over 3 decades now.
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If you look at the number of US Dollars in circulation, and you imagine that those are replaced by Bitcoins, you get a value in the order of $50k per BTC. EDIT: Some hard numbers added: New York FED says: $829 billion in circulation. There will be 20999999.9769 BTC (if the decimal point does not change - else it may be a little closer to 21M). This makes $39,476.19 per BTC. And this means current USD! As the USD will inflate, the value per Bitcoin will rise alike. Man, you are WAY out of date  those were 2007 numbers. there is 2.9 TRILLION USD in circulation: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab9now do the math! |
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This is why I have invested all my money in Bitcoins. There is very little downside going backwards. No backwards moves of late have any traction whatsoever and supply continues to lag. Way too little downside for such a proposition to stay so my advice is to move more into Bitcoins. Only a large change in the economy could alter this forecast.
i agree. the Bears desperately want it to fall below $10 either b/c they have an agenda or they missed the run up. i think we have both trolling on this forum don't forget, this is The Bitcoin Forum. why would btc bears hang out here? i know i've put big money in at these price levels. |
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like I said there are several ways but I would look into persistence.
i use Ironkeys. at one time i stored the entire data directory with wallet.dat on the Ironkey while storing client on laptop. updating the block chain was painfully slow so i dumped that idea. using persistence, is this any different? wouldn't Linuxcoin also run slowly if stored on Ironkey? |
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18,907.12000001 + 1.1218,908.24000001 don't ask. |
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i have more info regarding the "low memory" warning while downloading block chain in live cd:
around block 128K i get the first of a few low memory warning boxes. i clicked Examine for details and Disk Usage Analyzer popped up.
1. the first folder listed is "/" and is 100% used, size 5.1GB, 20 items
2. the second sub folder listed is "rofs" and is 34.1% used, 1.7 GB, 18 items. and it goes down the table with the other sub folders plus this one totalling 100%.
3. System Monitor shows a Swap of 0 bytes and Memory is 470 MiB (23.5%) of 2.0 GiB.
4. at the top of Disk Usage Analyzer i see "Total filesystem capacity: 1.3GB (used: 1.3GB available: 0 bytes)"
so "/" is the root folder correct?
how can i increase this space to get rid of the memory warnings in a live cd session or is this not possible?
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thanks for the great work.
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ok, so i would like to increase the amount of virtual memory dedicated to the Live CD session so i don't get those "memory low" warnings near the end of the blockchain download.
i'm assuming this has nothing to do with partitioning and gparted.
in System Monitor, System tab i show in Hardware 2GB memory. i assume this is what is maxing out? this doesn't make sense to me as i thought the client and blockchain wouldn't take up near this amt of space along with Ubuntu.
is there a way to adjust this higher?
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Yes. He used to to be an investment consultant.
I think he is concerned that the market is very easy to manipulate with less than $300Million in value.
surely it will be more volatile due to the scarcity of btc's and the immaturity of the currency. but w/o the derivatives (puts, calls, short selling) i don't see how it can be manipulated effectively. With a lot of funds on each side it can be manipulated very easily. You just need to buy a lot or sell a lot to create big movements. These movements often catch on with smaller players jumping in on the trend and the market will move. Earlier last week there were large orders on each side that appeared and disappeared indicating the likely presence of a single "entity" with large funds ( 50- 100K usd in both dollars and BTC). your implication is that this large player can manipulate a market like this continually to his own benefit or in the direction he/she wants. i don't believe thats the case at least in terms of making money. perhaps he could start a short term trend but over the long term the market as a whole will determine price. |
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Yes. He used to to be an investment consultant.
I think he is concerned that the market is very easy to manipulate with less than $300Million in value.
surely it will be more volatile due to the scarcity of btc's and the immaturity of the currency. but w/o the derivatives (puts, calls, short selling) i don't see how it can be manipulated effectively. |
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My dad whom doesn't think I should touch Bitcoin with a 10ft pole has told me as much. I figure with the size of investment I plan to make, it will pay for itself after only about 10 transactions. (Paying by mail has high transaction costs). If it goes up astronomically in a year or two, that would just be a bonus. Edit: I was under the impression currency trading was riskier than stock trading  only if you use leverage. certainly you need to listen to your Dad. but most financial experts have gotten the last 11 yrs very wrong. i'm a Boomer but i think the young ones have got this one right and am going with them this time around. i just know that they aren't gonna put up with this BS the Boomers are trying to shove down their throats (namely debt servitude). |
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My dad whom doesn't think I should touch Bitcoin with a 10ft pole has told me as much.
I figure with the size of investment I plan to make, it will pay for itself after only about 10 transactions. (Paying by mail has high transaction costs). If it goes up astronomically in a year or two, that would just be a bonus.
i'm a Dad too. but does yours understand computers and whats happening with the Internet? not to mention understanding money. |
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When the price of Bitcoin was rapidly climbing from $3 to $30 USD, I started valuing Bitcoin at the 30 day weighted average price (right hand side). The possibly flawed assumption is that better reflects the fundamental value of bitcoin than the peaks and valleys. Currently, the 30 Day price is listed at $17.69 USD/BTC. IMO, anything less than that is a good price if you are buying for the medium-long term. Keep in mind that the 30 Day price won't predict any fundamental problems with the currency that may cause the value to drop to 0. Conversely, it won't predict a long-term price adjustment; there will be a 30 day lag. the problem is you can use an infinite number of measures of so called value; VWAP is another one that comes to mind. i see in my stock trading program at least a hundred different ways of doing this. ALL FUTILE! and i should know having tried many out. trading is tough; currencies are no different than stocks. sometimes you just have to believe... |
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the trend has turned and we are headed for new highs.
you're doling out bad advice.
I'm actually not very good at technical analysis. Would you please explain it in detail. Thanks in advance. but I still think it's bad for us to push the price now. those stupid panicky didn't all get out. go to the RALLY thread and see my technical analysis starting a few days ago. your reasoning is specious as well. one could just as easily argue that another price breakout would re-energize btc's credibility and acceptance worldwide and HELP adoption especially after the news hits we've taken in the last month. and i personally believe the long term equilibrium price of btc will be in the thousands so buy now. |
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if you don't buy now, you'll never get another chance. the trend has turned and we are headed for new highs.
you're doling out bad advice.
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Just hold on, those one with vulnerable faith to the bitcoin will like to sell you at a lower price. just hold at the 14 bucks, don't try to push the price up. They will get impatient and sold you at a lower price. we solid believers don't have to buy the bitcoins at a high price! Just hold an open order around 12 to 14, those scared people sell it to you at these prices!
Just speculating.
Or, they won't, the price will go much higher than 15, and you'll be left holding an open order between 12 and 14... if the price is going up, it's because there are people out there who want btc... really that simple. well, that's what people who is buying now thinks, I guess. If I'm more manipulative, I won't even hold an open bid order, and just hold a open ask order, trying to make the price down. We all know that lots of people with vulnerable faith just came in for a quick profit. we should not let them win such a easy lottery. Let them sell back the bitcoin to us at a low price! I guess we should just withdraw the open bid order, let those people who subconsciously like to sell be scared, and do their SELL SELL SELL job! LOL, will you get left behind!? |
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how do i adjust the swap memory?
Normally, there is a program called 'gparted' (probably in System->Administration->Gparted or System->Adminitration->Partition Manager) on the live CD that you can use to modify partitions. If you already have a swap partition, you can use gparted to resize it. If you don't, you will need to shrink one of your existing partitions and create a swap drive in the newly created empty space. There is a detailed gparted tutorial here which should teach you how to do most common operations. As others have said, you may be better off making a persistent USB. i'm going thru your references right now; wow, these are good. thanks. |
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i've created an offline wallet with Ubuntu Live CD and saved it to a usb stick.
will bringing that wallet back into the client with a block chain download in a seperate session of Live CD create any wallet fingerprints on the hard drive?
no but, I would recommend making another partition on that usb stick just for a reuseable harddrive to put that wallet.dat file on the usb stick? what difference would that make? |
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No, unless you already have a Linux installation, in which case there's a small chance that it will automatically activate that swap partition, and use that if you run out of memory (I don't think it does, but I'm not sure.)
If it is on a computer with Linux on it, just open up gparted when you boot into the live cd. Look for any partitions listed as type "Linux Swap", and if they have the little key icon next to them, right click them and select "swapoff"
You can check with the top command if your OS is using swap memory. how exactly do i do that from a non Linux user? You don't need to use the top command. You can launch 'System Monitor' which is usually found in the System->Administration menu. Click on the 'Resources' tab:  thank you. that is much easier for a non Linux person. looking at your diagram, how do i adjust the swap memory? rabit, thanks for the command lines but its all gibberish to me! |
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i already have one and it looks great. theres a thread on it. i'll try to find it.
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