At the moment, on my large chart here... looks stronger than I thought it would.

Hanging at 6.6689 and all.

Yes, I have it on a big monitor - just for bitcoin

Wouldn't mind a retrace to the 5.60 - 6.00 range. I don't want a hockey-stick up to 7 and beyond, prefer the retrace-plateau-increase cycle over exponential curves.

My personal opinion is the destruction of other currencies (including the US Dollar) by short-sighted monetary policy will hasten the adoption of bitcoin, if only to move massive amounts in short periods of time. The later stages of using bitcoin will cause the true renaissance of this currency.

And like any other endeavor involving predicting the future, I can be utterly wrong - or more right than I know.

As a corollary, rising valuation by pricing bitcoins in dollars may only be evidence of the dollar's continued debasement via issuance of debt. However, I believe the 'intrinsic value' of bitcoin to be much higher than being priced with fiat.

Every disruptive technology (even within another disruptive eco-sphere like bitcoin) is usually declared as "the end of < insert previous tech >, dooming the < insert current status quo >". Assuming for one moment that BFL's claims are true, all we're witnessing here is the steady march of progress.

Radio/records were going to doom live performances.

Video recorders were going to be the end of TV/Movies.

FPGA is going to be the end of bitcoin.

See the pattern? Technology adoption evolves in ways that we can't easily predict, to the benefit of everyone.

Lets say everyone rushes and buys, produces a metric crap-ton of coins, prices oscillate wildly - hell, even get down to the $2 level -- this won't end bitcoin. I'd say that a lot of people would come out of the woodwork to grab some more. (yet *another* chance for all the disenfranchised 'I only heard about bitcoin a few months ago' people.) No? It happened late last November 2011. This isn't the end, in fact, as some have noted - it will turn the already powerful hashing network into an even more formidable force.

I understand the concerns of %51+ hash-attack, etc., but we've been at those crossroads before, and we haven't seen abuse. I don't personally have the funds to pursue this technology, but I have no problem with the increase of collective hashing power, as I see it strengthening the network overall.

I understand (perhaps) what chodpaba is getting at.

Any market that is implied to be a 'free' market means that participants have equal opportunity to act on information flow, and unless the contracts/instruments are extremely expensive (Like Berkshire preferred shares) most people can invest if they'd like.

There are a few asymmetries that can arise.

One is privileged access to information, such as being in the colocation rack right next to the exchange data feed - your machine sees the data a few milliseconds faster than anyone else, and can act upon it quicker. (High Frequency Trading has driven this madness.)


The second is obfuscation of trade size and depth - usually found in "Dark Pools" that cross large orders internally. (This has also been spurred by High Frequency Trading, big players need somewhere to take shelter from the predators of bid/ask spreads.)

So just using those examples you have a market that implies 'free market' opportunities, but the real costs in being competitive far outweigh most people's ability. Its expensive to get colocated near the exchange, it isn't trivial or cheap to set up an account large enough to qualify for Dark Pool trading. So, most retail investors are getting hamstrung by ruthless automated 'scalpers' that ping-pong the bid/offer as fast as possible to 'ping' the order book, front-running you on your trades.

Oh, and did I mention the exchanges give high-volume HFT traders rebates for doing business with them?

Don't forget that these 'providers of liquidity' switch off when the bids disappear, so there's nothing to stop the tsunami of offers - one of the factors in the "Flash Crash".

I'll take bitcoin trading over the current algo-driven hell that the retail markets are today, thanks.

You're right, SaintFlow.

All this does is allow funds to flow into their nation without any hope of paying it back. Once the flow of funds stops, then they'll be forced to make hard choices, which may still include defaulting on everyone.

I'd say this is a good grace period to get funds invested in bitcoin. Anyone who thinks Greece and the rest of the Euro-nations don't have any impact on our financial system is going to be in for a large surprise when it finally unravels.

Just a complete coincidence (maybe?), but I've noticed the 10 minute EUR/USD chart looks very similar to the daily Bitcoin prices (mtGox).

Interesting...

I've decided to add to my holdings (BTC) in light of the potential for US bank exposure to europe. There is a lot that has to be solved before it gets any better. Greece just postponed it a month or so, the other countries are next.

I'd prefer my funds accessible, not locked up with capital controls and withdrawal limits. Even if I have to remit to another currency, at least I'll have the option.

Interesting times, for sure.
 

Good point, I suspect this will occur as well if the current trends continue. Perhaps staging an .onion based site within the Tor network would be prudent.

It just takes experience and time. I knew some guys who traded certain patterns (of course, they didn't divulge what it was for fear of losing their edge) pretty reliably. I would see them initiate buys and sells, then hop out with a nice bit of cash.

I can't say I'm at that level, but I do know chart patterns. The problem of course is, how do you classify a pattern, and what do you do when that pattern seems to 'evolve' into something else? Subjectivity being what it is, I can look at a chart and see one thing, you another.

Its a best guess, really - based on prior behavior of price. I find it also to be quite enjoyable to attempt.

Was checking on the legal part for Square -- and although they don't specifically target bitcoin, the following statements from here may invalidate usage for it:

https://squareup.com/legal/ua


Too bad, eh? Payment processors are real kill-joys.

Nice site.

If you sign up for square, you could have them pay by credit card on your smartphone - though I don't know what their chargeback policies are. Perhaps cash is best.

Like to see the userbase grow of course, but its a good start.

Update:
Hmm, just checked - they say it is %2.75 for swiped cards. So on a transaction of $100, that amounts to an extra $2.75. Not bad... apparently there are no chargeback fees, either. Business opportunity?

I was curious too, here's a link for some data:

https://www.getclicky.com/marketshare/gr/droid/

Back of the pizza-box calculation, (hey, I'll throw it out later..) says that based on my estimated population of 4.9 million, market share for Android would be approximately ~1,240,680 people. No idea what the average handset is, or the version they're running.

That's a nice userbase, even if you assume only %10 adoption.

Beg your pardon, but I think 4.9 million internet users in Greece ( http://www.internetworldstats.com/eu/gr.htm ) would supply some percentage of bitcoin users, if any of the guides on using it were localized in the language, in addition to the client. ( Upon checking, apparently Multibit supports greek - http://multibit.org/ )

Even if bitcoin 'captures' %0.01 of that population, that would yield about ~490 people. If anyone has the ability to translate the basic usage docs to greek, I think that could go a long way. Hell, if I could do it - I would be right now.

Easy. Cost benefit analysis, how much is saved over using bitcoin versus the percentages paid to Paypal and credit processors. Even better, tell them they can KEEP THE PERCENTAGE themselves since users are already used to their tier structure.

Have to wonder how much profit is eaten up by 'transaction' costs. It adds up, I'm sure.

I think bitcoin will have its 'Napster' moment the way mp3 sharing did with the RIAA.

This means that the government/banks will have a complete and utter freak out once they realize bitcoin is routing around all their carefully placed restrictions and fees. The curious prodding of three letter agencies aside, the real shoe-drop moment will be when sovereign institutions have outright bans on transfer of money toward bitcoin interests, perhaps with stiff legal penalties.

I'd rather not have this occur, but once anyone of reasonable power fully understands what is going on, the only way to stop the bleeding is to contain the fiat currency from being converted. Hopefully, it will be way too late to really stop anything, as I'd like to see the bitcoin economy go toward full bitcoin-to-bitcoin transactions, and less currency exchange on the periphery.

I think the collapse of the Eurodollar will spur more volume in foreign currencies, and increasingly harsh conditions in the US economy will spur a search for stores of value independent of the dollar.

On a personal note, I've become more involved in iPhone and Android development, so hopefully once I get some cycles to burn, I can devote my time toward furthering bitcoin in the mobile space.

As for price, I expect wide variations with upward trending being the norm. So, a few 2% - 3% spikes as new interest comes in, followed with higher plateaus. I'd also prefer it not to swing up too rapidly, letting the whole ecosystem grow with a nice price 'floor' underneath it.

By next year I expect it to be close to 9 - 10 on a dollar pricing basis, unless Bernanke prints a *lot* more in the form of debt, then the dollar's increasing erosion will multiply that figure considerably.

I've been busy

Good to see ya, cypherdoc. I feel the current monetary problems around the world will be a catalyst for bitcoin.

Interesting how things work out, eh?

I'm ready to take some medicine as well - I thought it would stabilize around the 5.00 area, but instead it declined to the low above 2.00 around late November 2011.

Things improved off the lows from late Nov. '11 through Jan. '12, finally plateauing at 4.50 - 5.00, where I thought it would end up in the first place.

We've also had a modest rise thanks to other events in the world, most notably the ongoing erosion of the Eurodollar. This sunday June 17th, 2012 should be very interesting, as Greece will be on the threshold of either staying in the Euro or not.

In conclusion, bitcoin is *NOT* a bubble.

Probably a bit late, but if I was doing the BitInstant strategic marketing - I'd get my ass to Greece and take advantage of the rampant fear these guys have over reverting to the Drachma. Euro to Bitcoin, I'd shout it in the streets, spread flyers, etc..

We're talking about a country where there are no more safe-deposit boxes to be had, because people are stuffing them with euros and other things.

Anyway, I think it would be an opportunity for bitcoin to shine. If I had the ability I'd be over there in a second, networking and getting bitcoin adoption going.

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but if the cards can 'talk' wireless protocols, I suppose you could have a simple bridge-app on your phone to relay the data through the cellular network. Many people who have jailbroken iPhones and Android handsets would be familiar with this.

Nice product, by the way.