Hey Raize
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
,
1. Pardon me, but every single word you say, makes sense for me, Sir. When there is an healthy discussion, every word counts. I don't see you've made an mistake, on the contrary
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
2. Super cycle, yes, you mentioned Super cycle
![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
, What is "supercycle" ? And is there still "supercycle" ? Is it like the "mega super spurt" ? Kindly elaborate for me in terms of word and numbers, from both perspective please.
3. Since you've mentioned M1, M2 and M3, could you discuss it with us and how do you see it's impact on Bitcoin and vice versa ? E.g. Could Bitcoin takeover 1% of M2 ?
4. Your bear-side predictions had put us at $10K and $60K, I'm not denying this and see it near to reality. But if I asked Raize about near predication he believes in, like he believes in himself, will it still be the same numbers or less ? In other words, what are the predictions you are nearly sure about ?
5. Regarding your intentions, as I've said before, I can semi-read you from your posts and I know you are seeking the benefit for all of us. I apologize for that error. Don't worry, I'm not offended, on the contrary
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
6. I know you are serious but do you really mean this !!
I will say that I estimate the next bubble will be even slower and longer (maybe after 2030?) and might only end up in the $1-$3 million/coin range, though.
Could you please enlight us about those high number, Raize. Geeeez, people tends to see we will reach $10K in a decade and others like Raize is talking in millions
![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
Although I hate classifying, but I will do in order you get the complete picture of it.
There are 3 types of people when we speculate the price
Kind 1 : We will see $5K - $10K in a decade - 15 years
Kind 2 : We will see $10K - $50K in a decade - 15 years
Kind Raize : We will see $60K - $1M in a decade - 15 years.
Side note : I'm extremely sorry if you got offended this time as I'm trying to break the ice between ice and being friendly, so please accept my apology if my kidding with you made you offended or passed the limits.
I would like to know how (Kind Raize) see those high potentials, as you remind me of this
I have no idea. As none else has, if they do they lie :-) Best to not be wrong is not give predictions! But i enjoy the subject, so here are a few thoughts, i try to be TLDR;
If You saw that graph from my post, you have seen the potential wealth to growth "from". I can only say what Satoshi said about the 20 years volume (either HUGE, or zero), and volume derives from utility, and utility is a strong indicator of value in any asset class (or currency if that matters). As i have said in my angry rant, a 10.000$/BTC would be still less than 200 billion usd market cap today, which is laughably still nothing, a small mid-east country's yearly GDP with 5 million population, trading effectively raw cotton and some minerals. Nothing.
My point is: 99,9% of the populace could not imagine any useful mass usage in the first DECADE of their time for electricity/combustion engine/computers/internet, and see how most of us would literally die without them today.
To answer your question :-)
I can only say a ratio of BTC versus other store of value assets; i call it the lag of knowledge spread: mass psychosis fueled by both media and daily p2p interactions, greed, FOMO, sudden surge in "i should check this bitcoin thing out" will multiply adoption (hodlers and day-to-day users) by 100-1000 folds by 2020-2025. That is my prediction based on every other similar technology, minus the 2 important facts that: bitcoin can be money, and money is 2nd only to sex for "things worth killing for"; and the physical infrastructure is already layed down - oh and also, concurring currencies are a zero sum system. I mean, people can only have one of these combinations of any two currency with a finite purchasing power:
0-100, anything between 1-99, and 100-0, so when the perceived equilibrium is breached, it is an avalanche effect for the one below the threshold, for none wants to remain in the "dying" currency). From today's 0,004% M2 we should reach up to 0,4%-4% realistically in 10 years.
It does not necessarily means 100-1000x price increase ( i would say more, because it is a self reinforcing, exponentially (cost= N, benefit=N square) increasing network effect, but we must also count in non mathematical elements, like politics, perceptions, which are the exact opposites of economic rationality.
edit: that meant to be 100-1000, but a bit too much whine (the red liquid one, not the angry:)
Extremely thank you Raize for letting this discussion ongoing.
Edit 1 : What do you think about this one as well, Raize ?
https://medium.com/@Numerai/rogue-machine-intelligence-and-a-new-kind-of-hedge-fund-7b208deec5f0#.nl6an4ms0