Weekly Report
Well, officially it didn't quite manage to be a 10% profit week. We got over 10% trading profit then LTC rose significantly vs BTC pushing profits down below 8%. Then LTC fell back against BTC, not quite getting back to 10% profit for us on the week as I type this (it may well be there by time I finish posting - but have to take a snapshot at some point to do the report). In fact we still DID make over 10% trading - just it doesn't show in results as I wrote off the last 150 LTC of the bond ticker cost.
We have 1900 bonds in the wild now - I sold 100 to an order on the market when exchange-rate rose past the price it was at. Of course exchange-rate then moved back other way - so whoever I sold to won't have any complaints. Despite that we still have over 20% of fund capital exposed to exchange-rate changes. As discussed previously, the obvious two solutions (sell more bonds and/or convert some BTC back into LTC) aren't really all that feasible - as we just don't need more LTC-denominated capital right now.
I have, however, figured out a wait around it. What we ideally want to achieve is ALL of the following:
1. Decrease or at least not increase our LTC-denominated capital.
2. Keep our BTC-denominated capital the same (or a small increase wouldn't do any harm).
3. Reduce the percentage of fund exposure to BTC.
4. Ensure we keep bonds measured as a percentage of BTC-denominated capital below 90% (around 85% would be ideal - right now its 64%).
This can ALL be achieved by one simple measure - increase the number of bonds without actually selling any. So the amount of capital the fund controls would be unchanged - just the BTC-denominated portion would now consist far more of bonds, lowering the fund's exposure to currency movements.
Based on current fund breakdown this would be done by issuing to every owner of units in the fund 2 LTC-ATF.B1 bonds for each unit they hold of the fund. I would then further need to convert around 3 BTC-worth of the fund' LTC reserves into BTC. We'd then end up with slightly more BTC capital than now (3 BTC more), slightly less LTC (3 BTC-worth less - around 550 or so) and exposure to BTC for the fund down from 20%+ to 12%ish. Investors would still own the same percentage of fund as before. NAV/U of fund units would drop by the value of 2 bonds - and future growth on those units would be at a higher percentage (assuming we make over 0.6% profit per week). Total value of 1 unit + 2 bonds would be identical to the value of 1 unit had the bond issue not happened - and exposure/total profit for an investor would also be unchanged if you just held onto the bonds. But of course you can then choose to decrease your BTC exposure by selling the bonds (or increase it by obtaining more on the market). Were this to go ahead I'd offer to buy bonds at 100% face value from anyone who didn't want them (buy them with my personal account that is) and, of course, would offer a buy-back at over NAV/U on fund units if anyone simply didn't like the idea at all.
The principle behind what I'm suggesting is simply to try to reduce (as far as possible whilst maintaining obligations to bondholders) the fund's exposure to BTC - so that investors who WANT such exposure can choose to gain it to the extent they want (either by buying our bonds, holding BTC or doing anything else they choose). Personally I actually WANT a decent amount of BTC exposure - but the correct way for me to get that is by investing seperately to the fund in BTC (obviously my preference is the fund's own bonds) so that I control the ratio.
The change would have minimal impact on management fees - I'd actually lose out on spread-sheet calculated fee due to bond payments being made before fee is worked out (so i'd lose out on 10% of the new bonds' weekly dividends). But that would be balanced out by unit price being lower, so rounding down having less impact.
As the change would lower NAV/U, should new units need to be issued in the future (only likely if trade volume on the exchanges grows much faster than we make profit - we'd still have space to issue another 30 BTC or worth of bonds even before making ANY more growth) then I'd commit to offering them first to existing investors at NAV/U in ratio to current holdings - so noone lost out on the percentage of fund they hold due to the devaluation of units followed by issue of new units.
There's also a simpler alternative - issue a one-time dividend on the fund (of around 3.5 LTC per unit) then just sell new bonds on the market. Easier for me to adminstrate - and could do it in conjunction with allowing investors to reserve 2 Bonds per unit they hold which they can buy for the value of the dividend (Dividend would be precisely the value of 2 bonds). That would mean investors who didn't want bonds could just do absolutely nothing - and those who DID want bonds would just need to do an email exchange with me confirming the account name from which the dividend would be returned (and to which bonds would be sent). I'd tend to go with the latter approach - as it avoids anyone who doesn't want bonds having to do anything at all.
Summary of Suggestion :
1. A one-off dividend to unit-holders of 0.02 BTC (paid in LTC obviously).
2. Sale of new bonds with a face-value equal to the total amount dividended.
3. Unit holders would be entitled to purchase up to 2 bonds for each unit of LTC-ATF they hold at exactly face value (locked in at exchange-rate at time of dividend) - remainder would be sold on open market at usual rate.
Summary of impact of Suggestion :
1. Reduced exposure to BTC for LTC-ATF - allowing investors better to balance their own exposure and minimising exchange-rate caused fluctuations in NAV/U.
2. NAV/U of LTC-ATF units would fall by 0.02 BTC.
3. Fund would have lower NAV - but same capital under its control.
4. Funds controlled would be slightly less LTC-denominated and slightly more BTC-denominated - reflecting where growth is more likely and reducing need to issue more bonds in the short-term.
5. Growth of NAV/U in future would be expected to be a slightly higher percentage - but a slightly smaller absolute number (ino change in either when aggregated for any investor who accepted and held 2 bonds per unit).
6. Management fee would tend to decrease slightly as a percentage of profits but increase slightly as a number of units (very small difference in both cases - and often probably unchanged on both counts due to rounding).
Feedback (from anyone - but especially from investors) welcome - it may well be that noone except me actually cares about what extent the fund has exposure to BTC (or about accurately balancing their own exposure). There's no desperate rush on it - so it's not an actual proposal yet. It's just a suggestion on how the fund could address an issue that - whilst hardly disastrous - is presently not ideal. Do note that originally there was no plan at all to deal with this - as back then nearly all trade was in BTC on GLBSE so there was no alternative other than massive BTC exposure.
Bid at : 18.6 or thereabouts (looks like currency has moved whilst typing all this up - so will calculate it after sending management units).
Management fee of 4 units - which will be transferred shortly.