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1921  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Time is the most valuable thing on: March 22, 2023, 12:48:30 AM
I would add that attention is the key to your life.

Whatever you pay attention to makes it appear as a possibility in your life, if you then act on it, then it's a reality.

So, make sure to only pay attention to things you care in life, because that's quite literally how your life is created: Attention, Possibility, Reality.

For example, if you never paid attention to different ways of making money, your life will simply be very different than other people that paid attention to other ways of making money.

If you paid attention to Bitcoin in 2009 you would have today a very different life. Some people still choose not to pay attention to Bitcoin even today.

This also applies to how you live your life, how you interact with other people, etc, it applies to work, family, friends, happiness, well-being, everything.
1922  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Buying cheap is best formula on: March 22, 2023, 12:42:02 AM
It's really hard to know exactly when it's "cheap".

Also, people might have available funds at different times, and there might not be an overlap when Bitcoin is "cheap".

I think the best way is to simply buy frequently, whenever you have the funds. Because at the end of the day, if you're in Bitcoin for the long term, it doesn't matter too much when exactly did you buy it.
1923  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: March 21, 2023, 10:30:19 PM
Pardon me if I have been too lazy to read through all of the posts...though I am curious to know, has anyone actually tried using AI to bet for them on a gambling platform on the forum? Do any solutions like AI-powered bots exist, where you can tell it some variables and allow it to go ahead and play? I picture talking and training with the AI bot as it plays...with its capability to evolve, a smart trainer paired with AI self control could be a recipe for disaster for the casinos. I'd love to see this made.

It doesn't matter what you play, the casino always has an advantage based on the odds and payouts of the games. They designed the games to be like that.

So, even if an AI maximizes your chances of winning, still, in the long term you will lose all your money if you keep playing at the casino.
1924  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: March 21, 2023, 10:19:48 PM
~snip~
Sorry if I didn't express myself well, but what I most want to say with my post is that basically with more teams participating in the 2026 Cup, there are many more chances for great players to participate, regardless of their age.
There are some teams that have 1 or 2 exceptional players, who are successful in their clubs, are among the best in the world, but their teammates don't have the same level and can't qualify for the world cup.

I have other examples like Salah / Egypt, Alexis Sanchez and Vidal / Chile, all of whom did not play in 2022, and for sure many people would have liked to see them play in the world cup.
This is a strong point of the increase of teams for 2026.

And I go a little further than I am talking about, but on the same subject.
I have been thinking, and I believe that we will have 6 new teams that have never played a world cup, that will be present in 2026.
It is a little early to think exactly which teams they will be, but this year we can already have an idea.
Soon I will make a table to try to identify and predict who these teams will be hehehe.

Alexis Sanchez is already 34 years old, and Arturo Vidal is 35. Might as well bring back Ivan Zamorano Grin
1925  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: March 21, 2023, 10:15:42 PM
~snip~
I don't believe it either. Something like ChatGPT needs tons of servers, and they are very expensive to run.

But I would like to say a word of support to STT, because he only said "one guy on twitter insists". He never said he was telling the truth.



There's a paid version



Anyone tried it yet? What are those new features?

Basically the paid version works all the time (the free one is unavailable is there's too many people), it replies faster, and new features are available first to paid customers, these new features could be for example things like using images, or running code, etc.
1926  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: It's on! 2024 US Presidential Election Biden+Harris Vs Trump Bitcoin betting.... on: March 21, 2023, 10:13:41 PM
~snip~
So in case Putin travels to allied countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua, is there a chance that NATO aircraft would try to intercept his flight and arrest him over international waters? That would start the WW3, and will do a great service to this planet by wiping out 90% of the human population. In case Trump gets arrested, the reaction would me much more mild. At the most, he may ask his supporters to back Ivanka as the POTUS nominee for 2024. Anyway, I would prefer Ivanka as the GOP POTUS nominee over Trump. In fact, anyone else would be better than Donald Trump, even Kanye West.

I think the main difference is that in the case of Putin you have an external country doing the arrest, so there would be a clear rivalry between countries (and alliances).

In the case of Trump it would be a single country involved, the US, but of course the US is completely divided, so that might spark a civil war in there.
1927  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions on: March 21, 2023, 10:11:24 PM
~snip~
I find The Fabelmans and Avatar to be quite different type of movies; while first one is pretty intimate drama where Spielberg reveals some quite personal stuff and its sort of autobiopic, Avatar is a pure blockbuster whose sole purpose is to make as much money as possible and a way for Cameron to play with the cutting edge movie technologies.

I think Oscars reached point of no return as for so many years its more important about what movie is (minorities, lgbtq) than an actual quality of the movie which make them less relevant than ever before making it a movie equivalent of Eurovision song contest.

The Oscars are just a show, it's like any other TV contest really.

If you actually want to know what the best movies are, then the Oscars is probably not the best way to get that information. First of all, it's extremely US based(understandably), even with it's foreign section. Second, it's all just a show anyway, so they want a lot of people paying attention to it. That's usually not the best indication of quality.

Things like movie forums or specialized magazines, etc, would probably be a better source of information to get to know the best movies.
1928  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin as a legal tender OR pay with BTC and get REAL goods. on: March 21, 2023, 01:49:55 AM
~snip~
Don't you think that paying for a cup of coffee with half of the price and spending another half to the fee is a bit overwhelming experience after all? What is the fee change since the time of Great Pizza Buy? Is it declining? Huh

This is the pizza transaction: https://mempool.space/block/57043

Total fees: 0.99 BTC

That's quite a large fee. Nowadays you can pay close to zero with lightning, or on-chain here's a recent transaction for about $5 (a coffee) with a fee of 20 cents or so: https://mempool.space/tx/8fe16f5e9aee05dcac630f01b9b184f9e00b3dfab5ee2142cdfcdbb930d3490a

That's actually less than the fees credit cards impose on sellers (30c plus 2.9%)
1929  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: March 21, 2023, 01:45:49 AM
~snip~
The passion for football never goes down, but the fitness is the one that makes things work in favour of his passion. These players will keep up the fitness level high, but age really matters when the young players enter. Ronaldo can make tricks and his technical games, but to stand level to the young ones into the team will be hard for him. This is just an assumption, we don't know how young is his mind for the upcoming World Cup. As said playing for the clubs is different from playing for the nation. The legendary ones preparing the young ones for the world cup will be more interesting than their participation.

Absolutely.

For sprints, jumps, and throws, men and women hit their peak around 25 years of age

The current age of Mbappe is 24 years old, and it shows. Messi is 35 years old, and Christiano Ronaldo is 38. We saw that difference in the world cup very clearly.
1930  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: March 21, 2023, 01:40:29 AM
One guy on twitter insists he has taken GPT code and made it possible to run completely offline with closed data only so you have greater certainty in its conclusions perhaps and security also?  Since betting is largely on historical game data and player profiles etc, it's possible being offline might be the route it takes.

Martingale was mostly about a simple idea easy to implement, not that its especially a great idea just that its an attractive concept.  If AI makes things very simple for people I guess we can presume it will become more popular so long as its especially easy to implement in betting.  If that does happen we'll have greater convergence in betting as surely AI is more likely to agree more often then people do.

It took thousands of researchers to release BLOOM, which is not as good as GPT: https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/07/12/1055817/inside-a-radical-new-project-to-democratize-ai

And you're saying a random dude on twitter somehow managed to get the closed source code of GPT3+ (gpt2 was open source), and made it efficient enough to run nicely on a home computer, lol.
1931  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Official FutureBit Apollo BTC Software/Image and Support thread on: March 21, 2023, 12:01:39 AM
~snip~
By connect to other servers I mean your node will be highly connected to the major mining pool backbone for faster block propagation. You would still be your own "pool" and mining your own blocks/transactions.

FYI cool functionality we are building out is that solo mining will essentially be your own stratum pool (so the pool will run locally on your device and your hashboard will be connected to that internal pool), but the fun part is that you can use it as your own pool infrastructure, so if you have other miners (even non Apollo hardware) you could point all of them to the Apollo and solo mine.

"Pool in a box"

That sounds promising.

I hope it ends up being published as open source. I bought the Apollo assuming it to have open source software for the mining(like cgminer for example), but was disappointed to realize it only has a closed source binary available to mine with. By the way, I remember you mentioned some time ago that the code could be open if the Apollos did well financially, and I think they have done well based on this thread and they being sold out all the time. Are we getting an open source miner for the Apollos?
1932  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: March 20, 2023, 11:54:40 PM
~snip~
As it has been discussed in this thread ad nauseam - chance of winning is just one of the factors to consider when choosing strategy or simply deciding whether to take a bet or not. I think that's a common mistake people make, focussing solely on probability of winning, which can result in situations like the one described in this topic: Gambler Loses 1.4 million USD in a bet with lower than 1.01 odds!

The thing is that the math tells you that you're going to lose money in the long term gambling.

You can choose to continue until financial ruin, or you can treat it as entertainment and consider the bets as the price for entertainment, and stop when it's reasonable to stop for entertainment.
1933  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: March 20, 2023, 11:51:36 PM
~snip~
You're right. We don't hear much about casinos going bankrupt, compared to the banking sector or other businesses.
I can't know for sure, but it seems to me that casino owners are constantly watching their reserves and when they are depleted, they reduce the return rate for customers. And when the reserves go up, they arrange various additional marketing campaigns and promotional integrations.

Marketing campaign costs for casinos are not that expensive really, compared to the amount of money they make.

For example:

In 2021, the market size of the casino and online gambling industry worldwide reached a total of 231 billion U.S. dollars.

That means casinos are a massive, massive business. Marketing costs nowhere near that.
1934  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: It's on! 2024 US Presidential Election Biden+Harris Vs Trump Bitcoin betting.... on: March 20, 2023, 11:48:53 PM
~snip~
I don't think either of them will go to jail because they both have tremendous influence in the political arena. I don't know about Trump, but I heard that Putin has several doppelgangers (I can't be 100% sure, but it is possible for security purposes) and I think that even if he is arrested, it will be a doppelganger, and the real Putin will be safe for the rest of his life.

But if I have to choose between the two, I would choose Trump.

It would be interesting to see if any country actually acts on that and tries to jail Putin. The retaliation from Russia would be incredible to say the least I think.

So, in a way, I don't think Putin will be jailed. On the other hand, Trump is dealt with his own country, so maybe that has more chances of happening. Probably might end up in a civil war though. Who knows.
1935  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions on: March 20, 2023, 10:17:01 AM
~snip~
Cool story bro.  Cheesy

How experienced you are in the movie industry, how many movies you produced so far or worked on in any capacity that you claim you can do a much better work than Nolan? Gotta love guys like you that probably never suceeded at anything in their life, telling how better they would be than people who are actually doing it for a living.

It's easier to simply write something in a forum or critique someone else's work than actually doing something yourself.

That's always been the case, and that's what separates the great with the masses.
1936  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: March 20, 2023, 10:15:47 AM
~snip~
Ain't it wild how Messi and Ronaldo still got us in awe, even as their prime fades away? They're legends, man, like two GOATs playing ball in the hall of fame. Now we got these fresh cats, Mbappé and Haaland, runnin' the show, and they're bringing the heat! These new kids on the block got mad skills, and it's a straight-up thrill to see them play.

As we edge closer to the 2026 World Cup, anticipation builds like a crescendo, our hearts aflutter with excitement for the performances of these bright stars, a new generation of footballers. Who shall rise above the rest and etch their name in the annals of history? The curtain has yet to rise, and only time shall reveal the next act.

Yeah, absolutely.

I think Mbappé was the most fun to watch in this past world cup. He basically was the best player of France by far, and probably the tournament. The final was just incredible. When you least expected it he was making goals. That's what a great player does. Messi won in the end, and I'm happy about it, but the future is clearly for Mbappé.

Every few years we get to see amazing players that are not as popular as the super stars, like Rivaldo. I think Mbappé will be a super star by the next world cup.
1937  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: March 19, 2023, 11:50:45 PM
~snip~
I agree since there is no scientific method that would explain how luck works. Personally, I see luck as a mindset that we embedded on ourselves in seeing the outcomes of anything. We set our minds that when it goes on our way, it is due to luck, when it can be seen as completely random event. Yes, as you go on being exposed to the betting activity, I think strategy can be used but at the end it would just rely on the randomness of it. I agree that it wont make you have a higher chance on winning since it is still random.

Probabilities are used to get an idea of a random event. But the thing is that the more measurements you take, for longer, the less random it gets.

For example, if you bet for a match before it starts, there's more randomness to be experienced, but if you bet after the first half, then many things are not random anymore, and that's why the odds are updated, etc.

Random exists because there's a lack of measurement. In a roulette for example, if you know in detail many variables of the table, the ball, air temperature, etc, and you create a model, you will have a much better chance of guessing the resulting number than just 1 out of N, where N is the total number of slots. The thing is that we just don't have that information, so it's assumed everything is equal, but it's not. Some tables have bumps in certain areas, making it not a perfect roll, etc. If you can tap into those things you would be able to predict slightly better the outcomes.
1938  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: March 19, 2023, 11:45:52 PM
~snip~
Well... talking about this subject, I was thinking to myself, what level can Cristiano Ronaldo and Messi will be in 2026?

Will the decline in their performances be very relevant? Or can they still be the best players for their teams in the 2026 world cup?

They both were already not at their peak, Christiano Ronaldo was a bit sad to see actually. He was replaced and his replacement played much better than him.

Messi was still OK, but not at a spectacular level. He won the world cup in the end, but it was more of a team effort really.

I don't think any of them will be able to play at that level in the next world cup.
1939  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: It's on! 2024 US Presidential Election Biden+Harris Vs Trump Bitcoin betting.... on: March 19, 2023, 11:43:45 PM
So Putin in theory could go to jail if he travels to some countries

Vladimir Putin Is Officially A Wanted Man

Ex-US President Donald Trump expects to be arrested on Tuesday

Which one would be in jail first? make your bets!  Grin
1940  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin as a legal tender OR pay with BTC and get REAL goods. on: March 19, 2023, 11:40:30 PM
I prefer to use Bitcoin for online transactions, but unfortunately, my country does not accept it. In fact, Bitcoin is strictly prohibited here, leaving me with no option to use it. Instead, I have to convert it to fiat currency through the black market or peer-to-peer transactions and then use it for purchasing goods. While the fees associated with are high, it is still a better option. However, I feel more secure when making payments with Bitcoin, as I am hesitant to enter my card credentials into online sites. Overall, paying with Bitcoin is a simpler process for me.

Bitcoin really is much better to send and receive money.

There are so many hacks these days with credit cards that yeah, it might make more sense to use Bitcoin instead of having your credit card details at random stores.
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