~snip~
if a gambler developed this AI to become a more accurate predictor, wouldn't casinos all over the world go bankrupt? after all, the casino will still be smarter in every way to win and it is very unlikely that any AI or ChatGPT can predict bets with 100% accuracy. the house will always win.
from the first time, the martingale trend was just a simple strategy that was difficult for other gamblers to do. because martingale also requires sizable funds to always increase the bet amount for every loss.
Of course the casinos wouldn't go broke, because they would update the odds or the payouts accordingly. And casinos are at the forefront of odd calculation, so probably they would have bought the guy out if it actually works and they don't know how to do it. Think about it, how many times you hear about a casino going bankrupt vs a small business going bankrupt. |
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~snip~ Well someone here solve the last ckpool solo block using 10TH worth of Apollos  Probably why the pool has attracted more Apollo users since then. The benefit is that you are using your own node to construct and broadcast the bitcoin block if found, with ckpool, the pool itself has control over the block creation (and therefor could theoretically censor transactions). Until we release our own implimination of solo mining I would not suggest trying to do this on your own unless you know your node is well connected to other pools (which is hard to do on an individual level). We are working with pool partners to directly connect all Apollo solo miners to major pools once our implementation launches. You mentioned in theory ckpool can censor transactions, wouldn't exactly the same statement apply to the "Apollo Pool" since you said the plan is to connect to other servers? At the end of the day using any pool you need to trust the person behind it. |
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~snip~
Well, let us see how polls behave once Trump is indicted on Tuesday (who himself has already declared is going to happen).
I suspect this will be first of multiple indictments that are going to follow and for even more serious charges which may have to do with January 6th and the classified documents he had in his home in Florida.
My prediction is that polls will turn even more in Trump's favor once he steps into court. He likes to fight, so does his base.
I wonder if there's somewhere where you could bet if Trump goes to jail or not, or gets indicted or not, etc. You can basically bet on everything these days, so he mentioned it could happen on Tuesday, we'll have to wait and see if it happens. Wonder what the odds for that are... |
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~snip~
I really really doubt that. Dude would be 40+ years old and if he is still playing then it would be like 3.5 years playing in Saudi league, that doesn't really prepare you for World cup. Before this one he was at least member of United and he was seen as not wanted and all that which makes sense and happens but we still didn't know where he would play, he was last played at United before he went there.
When you are the striker for United, even if there are issues you are still the striker for Manchester United, that is as good as it gets for most players. Now? He is an unwanted player playing for money in Saudi league, basically puppet for the rich people there, doubt he can even play up until that point.
The only way Christiano Ronaldo will be at the next World Cup is if he does an ad like Pirlo did in this one. There's no way Christiano Ronaldo will be at a competitive level after playing years in that league and at his age. He already wasn't very good in the last world cup to be honest, no way he's coming back. |
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This sounds pretty interesting. I am yet to fully grasp the lightning network is all about, although I learned that just like the name sound, transactions done on the network are close to the speed of light. Hopefully I will have the opportunity to use it someday in making a purchase or payment for a service. But until then, the pizza looks yummy. This unrelated though but this story kinda reminds me of that guy who paid his pizza with 10 bitcoin.
Lightning is awesome for small purchases, but I would still not put a considerable amount of Bitcoin in there. The only bitcoin I trust is the one in the blockchain. |
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I tried to predict the result of the match between Sinner and Alcaraz of tonight (pretty curious to see what provide) but at the end ChatGPT4 says that this AI doesn't provide forecast about sportive events. Pretty disappointed  Interesting. I wonder why they decided to limit the model in that way, maybe they don't want people angry with them when they lose a bet. People losing their money usually lose their minds as well, so it's probably a smart move from them. In any case, I read that the new model has more security built in so that it doesn't do things it's not supposed to do. |
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Plus two whole countries, El Salvador and Central African Republic. |
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Every time they offer Bitcoin as payment I pay with Bitcoin (and then buy the same amount back or more with cash), so effectively I'm decreasing my fiat holding, and keeping or increasing my bitcoin holdings when buying with bitcoin. Sometimes they offer a discount, but it doesn't matter. Paying with Bitcoin feels like living in the future. Moving money around the world without intermediaries, 24/7, and the transfer is done in a matter of minutes. Some stores are Bitcoin only (no fiat), like this one: https://www.mtsocks.comThey even have a signed proof that the socks are original: For every pair of socks we sell, we assign a unique Bitcoin address to them, along with a message (e.g. date of purchase and order ID). We use Bitcoin’s Message Signing feature to create a signature which proves MtSocks owns that address.
When you receive your socks, you’ll be given these details and can use them to verify the authenticity of your purchase. Check that they’re the real deal via your personal wallet or MtSocks by following the instructions below! |
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~snip~
Really helpful, thank you!
First and foremost I want to give people facts and give them a general broad education on Bitcoin. After watching the video I'll consider it a win if they are encouraged to learn more, acquire some and use it.
The entire writings of Satoshi Nakamoto can be found at https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.orgThey show everything nicely organized and with links to the original material. It will save you a lot of time compared to reading every post in here. Also it includes other things outside of this forum like the emails and source code. |
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~snip~
We are talking about football so everything is possible, there is a chance for even good teams like Germany or England to lose the game against a weak team and if they let more nations enter the world cup there is a higher possibility to see this happening for many great teams when they fail to even pass the staging group but usually, the reason of they lose these game is the defensive playing style of the weak team lowering the speed of the game which can be a reason to lower the quality of the games in the world cup.
Absolutely. Just look at what happened in the previous world cup: Italy, a previous champion, didn't manage to qualify. The current champion, Argentina, lost against Saudi Arabia. There are always surprises in the world cup, I'm just a bit worried that having so many teams will make the world cup a bit different, as the initial stages will almost look like the qualifiers. For example, in South America there are 10 teams in the qualifiers. Currently there are 4 direct spots and one that goes to playoffs against Asia. In the new version, there will be 6.5 slots. That means that in theory there might be up to 7 of those 10 teams in the world cup. So, basically almost the same as the qualifiers. |
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~snip~
in conclusion self-predictions or AI-assisted predictions or ChatGPT, it's just a way to get closer to our luck.
even though in the end the result we will receive is only luck or unlucky but if we have a prediction in any way it is the same as we have an effort to chase luck. it's much better than just being silent and betting without predictions like not having any approach with luck.
Yes, absolutely right. At the end of the day the casinos know the odds very well, that's the reality, and they publish the payouts to make sure they have an advantage based on those odds. In some games, they make a huge margin, and in others, the margin is smaller. The key thing is to use your brain or an AI to basically identify the smaller margins and bet there. Now, in some cases, maybe in sport betting, maybe there will be some opportunities in which you or AI will be able to know more than what the casino knows, therefore making the margin a bit smaller. Those are great opportunities. Having said that, casinos will always have an advantage, otherwise they won't offer that bet. |
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~snip~
The casino will always win - this is a known fact, but there are always a few lucky people who manage to hit the jackpot, without luck it is difficult to do this.
Luck is also needed in betting, but here, in addition to luck, the ability to analyze an event also decides a lot. And I agree that if we do nothing, then it will be very difficult to check how lucky we are. To win the lottery, you must at least buy this lottery.
True. But the amount of "luck" you need depends on the probabilities of the game. So, to maximize your chances of getting "lucky", you should for example always buy the lotto tickets from the lotto that has more probabilities to win. Putting it simply in an example, consider the two lottos as the following: Consider lotto1 as a coin toss. If you bet on a coin toss, you will be expected to win once every two tosses. It will not be exactly that, but in the long term it will be. Consider lotto2 as a dice roll. So, if you then bet on a dice roll, you have 1 in 6, much worse odds. It would be better to bet on the lotto1 of course (given the same payout). The thing is that lottos and casino games are designed so that it's not easy to calculate the odds, and they make you think it's easier to win than what it actually is. |
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~snip~
It is true that online storage is riskier than offline storage, but whether it is safe is still how we use them and how we protect them. It cannot be said entirely that offline will not lose assets, and online will lose assets.
If you store it offline and subjectively think it is safe, you may not be attacked by viruses or hackers. But when storing offline, your assets are at risk of natural disasters, and unexpected incidents such as theft and loss attacks...There is no safest method, it all depends on us.
Yes, you're right. I was assuming that the offline wallet was secured properly, with backups. In the same way that the online wallet is secured with a pin or password, etc. The thing is that if your wallet keys are not stored online, then the probability of someone just guessing your key is virtually zero. It all comes down to you not losing access to your own keys. |
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~snip~
You shouldn't rely on AI completely, that's for sure, but it is still not known whether using our knowledge is better than AI's recommendations. If we knew everything and were always right, then asking AI about something would be pointless, I agree. But the thing is that we know from our own experience that we are often wrong in making decisions. Too often to rely only on our knowledge or on our feeling what to do. We need a support, and AI can provide us with that support.
There is a limit to what our brains can calculate intuitively though. For example, you don't need to calculate the math for throwing a rock and hitting something. You can do this without "thinking" because our brains evolved in that direction. It's just native to us, we just "know" how fast and in which direction to throw the rock. No need for physics equations. But, for many other things we're actually quite bad at this. For example statistics. We have a very poor native feeling for statistics. In those cases we need math because our intuition is often wrong. See Monty Hall paradox as an example. With ChatGPT and other AI systems we will be able to tap into maths in a more natural way. |
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~snip~
From where did you got this 60% figure? Because most of the opinion polls I have seen give 40% to 45% support for Donald Trump, with DeSantis trailing him with support from 25% to 35%. DeSantis is still unknown to many of the GOP voters outside Florida. And in due course of time, I would expect him to attract most of the anti-Trump support within the GOP. In case Trump is polling below the 50% mark, it is a red flag for him. Because he is a known figure and it means that a majority of the GOP voters don't want him to be the Republican nominee.
It's hard to be convinced with any poll because at the end of the day they're just samples. Also, many people will never say they vote for X then they go and do exactly that at voting day. So, it will probably be a close call, with anyone able to win really. It will be controversial as usual in the US these days. |
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~snip~
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. You have done abundant research and I guess you are not on impulse. The analysis of the everyday news is quite necessary and each of us must learn to have a critical thinking. As the Bitcoin price surges again, more confidence will be built for new investors/traders. I am pretty sure we will witness another ATH. Just be patient.
I think having the mentality of adding more and more to your Bitcoin stash helps. Because it doesn't matter what price it is today, you're still saving. It's kind of like investing in a passive index fund, but better, because it's bitcoin |
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~snip~
When Bitcoin moved to $15500 it was an opportune time for us to invest. Then at the beginning of the new year, Bitcoin went up. The price of Bitcoin rose to $25,000. Many people thought that the investment opportunity might be gone. But we can see that in the last few days the market has come down again, I think another opportunity has come for people to invest. But the market bounced back from $19,800 to $24,500. But I think even if the market increases, it is still the right time for us to invest. So those who want to invest can still invest.
It also depends on the time that you have money and attention to invest in Bitcoin really. For example, you could say that $15,500 was too expensive because you were buying it in 2013 at a fraction of that price. The thing is that Bitcoin is an appreciating asset, so no matter what price it is today, it should be higher in the long time. |
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~snip~
because luck will come to those who are willing to take risks. in the sense that if luck is waiting for us but don't do anything or don't make any bets, how is it possible that luck will come.
like we have a strategy that we have made but we don't bet anything in our strategy, even though the strategy that is made is luck waiting for us.
Maybe, maybe not. That's the whole point of "luck", which really is just probabilities. You can estimate the probabilities of someone winning a game. Then check the payouts. In general, casinos make these calculations very precisely and make sure they always have an advantage. That's why in the long term the house always wins, because even if someone gets "lucky" and wins big, which is unusual but happens, they will probably continue playing anyway, eventually losing all their winnings. |
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~snip~
I thought the whole rigging of election was limited to my country and probably the Africa countries, never knew it's witnessed America as well.
I placed 5k bet with high hopes that the nation would be obedient by now and even if it was clear to the blind that he won, the still had a way of robbing us off our rights.
We'll be better in the long run, that's my belief
At the end of the day corruption is everywhere in the world, you just need to constantly fight against it. There's also the perception of corruption from the public, which sometimes helps reducing it if everyone thinks it's low, or on the other hand helps it increase if everyone thinks that "everyone else is doing it". A bit similar to the prisoner's dilemma. |
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